城市发展对中国华北区域极端温度事件的影响(英文)
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摘要
The regional changes of daily temperature extremes in North China caused by urbanization are studied further from observed facts and model estimates on the basis of homogenized daily series of maximum and minimum temperature observations from 268 meteorological stations, NCEP/DOE AMIP-Ⅱ reanalysis data(R-2), and the data of simulations by regional climate model(RegCM3). The observed facts of regional warming on long time scales are obtained by analyzing the indices of temperature extremes during two time periods of 1961–2010 and 1951–2010. For urbanization effect, the contributions to decreases in annual and winter diurnal temperature range(DTR) are 56.0% and 52.9%, respectively, and increases in the lowest minimum temperature(TNn) are 35.7% and 26.2% by comparison of urban and rural observations. Obtained by R-2 data with observations for contrast, on the other hand, increase in the number of annual warm nights(TN90p) contributed by urbanization is 60.9%. And observed facts of regional warming in daily temperature extremes are also reflected in the simulations, but what difference is urbanization progress at rural areas in North China would be prominent in the next few years relative to urban areas to some extent from model estimates.
The regional changes of daily temperature extremes in North China caused by urbanization are studied further from observed facts and model estimates on the basis of homogenized daily series of maximum and minimum temperature observations from 268 meteorological stations, NCEP/DOE AMIP-Ⅱ reanalysis data(R-2), and the data of simulations by regional climate model(RegCM3). The observed facts of regional warming on long time scales are obtained by analyzing the indices of temperature extremes during two time periods of 1961–2010 and 1951–2010. For urbanization effect, the contributions to decreases in annual and winter diurnal temperature range(DTR) are 56.0% and 52.9%, respectively, and increases in the lowest minimum temperature(TNn) are 35.7% and 26.2% by comparison of urban and rural observations. Obtained by R-2 data with observations for contrast, on the other hand, increase in the number of annual warm nights(TN90p) contributed by urbanization is 60.9%. And observed facts of regional warming in daily temperature extremes are also reflected in the simulations, but what difference is urbanization progress at rural areas in North China would be prominent in the next few years relative to urban areas to some extent from model estimates.
The regional changes of daily temperature extremes in North China caused by urbanization are studied further from observed facts and model estimates on the basis of homogenized daily series of maximum and minimum temperature observations from 268 meteorological stations, NCEP/DOE AMIP-Ⅱ reanalysis data(R-2), and the data of simulations by regional climate model(RegCM3). The observed facts of regional warming on long time scales are obtained by analyzing the indices of temperature extremes during two time periods of 1961–2010 and 1951–2010. For urbanization effect, the contributions to decreases in annual and winter diurnal temperature range(DTR) are 56.0% and 52.9%, respectively, and increases in the lowest minimum temperature(TNn) are 35.7% and 26.2% by comparison of urban and rural observations. Obtained by R-2 data with observations for contrast, on the other hand, increase in the number of annual warm nights(TN90p) contributed by urbanization is 60.9%. And observed facts of regional warming in daily temperature extremes are also reflected in the simulations, but what difference is urbanization progress at rural areas in North China would be prominent in the next few years relative to urban areas to some extent from model estimates.
引文
Chen G M,Qi H Y,Pan W,2002.Statistics Toolbox for Use with Matlab(6.x),Beijing:Science Press,168–171.
Chen X R,Wang S G,1987.Modern Regression Analysis:The Principle,Method and Application.Hefei:Anhui Education Press,91–150,341–356.(in Chinese)
Cross A M,1977.Confidence intervals for bisquare regression estimates.Journal of the American Statistical Association,72(358):341–354.
Easterling D R,Horton B,Jones P D et al.,1997.Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the global.Science,277(5324):364–367.
Gao X J,Shi Y,Zhang D F et al.,2012.Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model.Chinese Science Bulletin,57(10):1188–1195,doi:10.1007/s11434-011-4935-8.
Giorgi F,Marinucci M R,Bates G T,1993a.Development of a second-generation regional climate model(RegCM2).Part I:Boundary-layer and radiative transfer processes.Monthly Weather Review,121(10):2794–2813.
Giorgi F,Marinucci M R,Bates G T et al.,1993b.Development of a second-generation regional climate model(RegCM2).Part II:Convective processes and assimilation of lateral boundary conditions.Monthly Weather Review,121(10):2814–2832.
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Gong D Y,Pan Y Z,Wang J A,2004b.Changes in extreme daily mean temperatures in summer in eastern China during 1955–2000.Theoretical and Applied Climatology,77(1/2):25–37,doi:10.1007/s00704-003-0019-2.
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Li Q X,Li W,Si P et al.,2010.Assessment of surface air warming in northeast China,with emphasis on the impacts of urbanization.Theoretical and Applied Climatology,doi:10.1007/s00704-009-0155-4.
Li Q X,Liu X N,Zhang H Z et al.,2004a.Detecting and adjusting temporal inhomogeneity in Chinese mean surface air temperature data.Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,21(2):260–268.
Li Q X,Zhang H Z,Liu X N et al.,2004b.UHI effect on annual mean temperature during the last 50 years in China.Theoretical and Applied Climatology,79(3/4):165–174.
Li Q X,Zhang H Z,Chen J et al.,2009.A mainland China Homogenized Historical Temperature Dataset of1951–2004.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,90(8):1062–1065,doi:10.1175/2009BAMS-2736.1.
Liang D P,2010.Studies on estimation and validation of regional evapotranspiration based on MODIS Data.Beijing:Beijing Normal University,19–22.(in Chinese)
Liu J Y,Liu M L,Zhuang D F et al.,2002.Analysis on spatial pattern of Chinese land use change during the recent years.Science in China(Series D),32(12):1031–1043.(in Chinese)
Pal J S,Giorgi F,Bi X Q et al.,2007.The ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET:Regional climate modeling for the developing world.Bulletin of American Meteorological Society,88(9):1395–1409.
Peterson T C,Folland C,Gruza G et al.,2001.Report on the activities of the Working Group on Climate Change detection and related rapporteurs 1998–2001.Rep.WCDMP-47,WMO-TD 1071,World Meteorological Organization,Geneva,Switzerland.
Population Census Office under the State Council,Department of Population and Employment Statistics,National Bureau of Statistics,2012.Tabulation on the 2010 Population Census of the People’s Republic of China by County or Township.Beijing:China Statistics Press.
Ren F M,Zhai P M,1998.Study on changes of China’s extreme temperatures during 1951–1990.Scientia Atmospherica Sinica,22(2):217–227.(in Chinese)
Ren G Y,Chu Z Y,Chen Z H et al.,2007.Implications of temporal change in urban heat island intensity observed at Beijing and Wuhan stations.Geophysical Research Letters,34(5):L05711(1–5),doi:10.1029/2006GL027927.
Ren G Y,Feng G L,Yan Z W,2010.Progresses in observation studies of climate extremes and changes in mainland China.Climatic and Environmental Research,15(4):337–353.(in Chinese)
Shi N,Wang J X,1992.A method of iteratively reweighted least square and its application.Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,3(3):353–358.(in Chinese)
Si P,Ren Y,Liang D P et al.,2012.The combined influence of background climate and urbanization on the regional warming in Southeast China.Journal of Geographical Sciences,22(2):245–260,doi:10.1007/s11442-012-0924-3.
Wei J,Sun J H,2007.The analysis of summer heat wave and sultry weather in North China.Climatic and Environmental Research,12(3):453–463.(in Chinese)
Zhai P M,Pan X H,2003a.Trends in temperature extremes during 1951–1999 in China.Geophysical Research Letters,30(17):1913,doi:10.1029/2003GL018004.
Zhai P M,Pan X H,2003b.Change in extreme temperature and precipitation over northern China during the second half of the 20th century.Acta Geographica Sinica,58(suppl.):1–10.(in Chinese)
Zhang D Q,Qian Z H,2008.Analysis of extreme events in China’s temperature in recent 50 years using detecting method based on median.Acta Physica Sinica,57(7):4634–4640.(in Chinese)
Zhang S Y,Song Y L,Zhang D K et al.,2004.The climatic characteristics of high temperature and the assessment method in the large cities of northern China.Acta Geographica Sinica,59(3):383–390.(in Chinese)
Zhang X B,Yang F,2004.RClimDex User Manual(ver 1.0).Climate Research Branch,Environment Canada,Canada.
Zhou Y Q,Ren G Y,2009.The effect of urbanization on maximum,minimum temperatures and daily temperature range in North China.Plateau Meteorology,28(5):1158–1166.(in Chinese)
Chen X R,Wang S G,1987.Modern Regression Analysis:The Principle,Method and Application.Hefei:Anhui Education Press,91–150,341–356.(in Chinese)
Cross A M,1977.Confidence intervals for bisquare regression estimates.Journal of the American Statistical Association,72(358):341–354.
Easterling D R,Horton B,Jones P D et al.,1997.Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the global.Science,277(5324):364–367.
Gao X J,Shi Y,Zhang D F et al.,2012.Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model.Chinese Science Bulletin,57(10):1188–1195,doi:10.1007/s11434-011-4935-8.
Giorgi F,Marinucci M R,Bates G T,1993a.Development of a second-generation regional climate model(RegCM2).Part I:Boundary-layer and radiative transfer processes.Monthly Weather Review,121(10):2794–2813.
Giorgi F,Marinucci M R,Bates G T et al.,1993b.Development of a second-generation regional climate model(RegCM2).Part II:Convective processes and assimilation of lateral boundary conditions.Monthly Weather Review,121(10):2814–2832.
Gong D Y,Han H,2004a.Extreme climate events in northern China over the last 50 years.Acta Geographica Sinica,59(2):230–238.(in Chinese)
Gong D Y,Pan Y Z,Wang J A,2004b.Changes in extreme daily mean temperatures in summer in eastern China during 1955–2000.Theoretical and Applied Climatology,77(1/2):25–37,doi:10.1007/s00704-003-0019-2.
IPCC,2001.Climate Change 2001:The Scientific Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
IPCC,2007.Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report.Contribution of Working Groups I,II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Geneva,Switzerland.
IPCC,2012.Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation:A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge and New York:Cambridge University Press.
Klein Tank A M G,Peterson T C,Quadir D A et al.,2006.Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Central and South Asia.Journal of Geophysical Research,111:D16105(1–8),doi:10.1029/2005JD006316.
Li Q X,Li W,Si P et al.,2010.Assessment of surface air warming in northeast China,with emphasis on the impacts of urbanization.Theoretical and Applied Climatology,doi:10.1007/s00704-009-0155-4.
Li Q X,Liu X N,Zhang H Z et al.,2004a.Detecting and adjusting temporal inhomogeneity in Chinese mean surface air temperature data.Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,21(2):260–268.
Li Q X,Zhang H Z,Liu X N et al.,2004b.UHI effect on annual mean temperature during the last 50 years in China.Theoretical and Applied Climatology,79(3/4):165–174.
Li Q X,Zhang H Z,Chen J et al.,2009.A mainland China Homogenized Historical Temperature Dataset of1951–2004.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,90(8):1062–1065,doi:10.1175/2009BAMS-2736.1.
Liang D P,2010.Studies on estimation and validation of regional evapotranspiration based on MODIS Data.Beijing:Beijing Normal University,19–22.(in Chinese)
Liu J Y,Liu M L,Zhuang D F et al.,2002.Analysis on spatial pattern of Chinese land use change during the recent years.Science in China(Series D),32(12):1031–1043.(in Chinese)
Pal J S,Giorgi F,Bi X Q et al.,2007.The ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET:Regional climate modeling for the developing world.Bulletin of American Meteorological Society,88(9):1395–1409.
Peterson T C,Folland C,Gruza G et al.,2001.Report on the activities of the Working Group on Climate Change detection and related rapporteurs 1998–2001.Rep.WCDMP-47,WMO-TD 1071,World Meteorological Organization,Geneva,Switzerland.
Population Census Office under the State Council,Department of Population and Employment Statistics,National Bureau of Statistics,2012.Tabulation on the 2010 Population Census of the People’s Republic of China by County or Township.Beijing:China Statistics Press.
Ren F M,Zhai P M,1998.Study on changes of China’s extreme temperatures during 1951–1990.Scientia Atmospherica Sinica,22(2):217–227.(in Chinese)
Ren G Y,Chu Z Y,Chen Z H et al.,2007.Implications of temporal change in urban heat island intensity observed at Beijing and Wuhan stations.Geophysical Research Letters,34(5):L05711(1–5),doi:10.1029/2006GL027927.
Ren G Y,Feng G L,Yan Z W,2010.Progresses in observation studies of climate extremes and changes in mainland China.Climatic and Environmental Research,15(4):337–353.(in Chinese)
Shi N,Wang J X,1992.A method of iteratively reweighted least square and its application.Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,3(3):353–358.(in Chinese)
Si P,Ren Y,Liang D P et al.,2012.The combined influence of background climate and urbanization on the regional warming in Southeast China.Journal of Geographical Sciences,22(2):245–260,doi:10.1007/s11442-012-0924-3.
Wei J,Sun J H,2007.The analysis of summer heat wave and sultry weather in North China.Climatic and Environmental Research,12(3):453–463.(in Chinese)
Zhai P M,Pan X H,2003a.Trends in temperature extremes during 1951–1999 in China.Geophysical Research Letters,30(17):1913,doi:10.1029/2003GL018004.
Zhai P M,Pan X H,2003b.Change in extreme temperature and precipitation over northern China during the second half of the 20th century.Acta Geographica Sinica,58(suppl.):1–10.(in Chinese)
Zhang D Q,Qian Z H,2008.Analysis of extreme events in China’s temperature in recent 50 years using detecting method based on median.Acta Physica Sinica,57(7):4634–4640.(in Chinese)
Zhang S Y,Song Y L,Zhang D K et al.,2004.The climatic characteristics of high temperature and the assessment method in the large cities of northern China.Acta Geographica Sinica,59(3):383–390.(in Chinese)
Zhang X B,Yang F,2004.RClimDex User Manual(ver 1.0).Climate Research Branch,Environment Canada,Canada.
Zhou Y Q,Ren G Y,2009.The effect of urbanization on maximum,minimum temperatures and daily temperature range in North China.Plateau Meteorology,28(5):1158–1166.(in Chinese)