近70年昆明市气温变化与城市化影响研究
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摘要
利用昆明市近70年气温资料,研究其变化趋势,结果表明,昆明市平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、极端最高气温、极端最低气温的气候倾向率均为上升趋势,最高和最低气温、极端最高和极端最低气温存在不对称变化。昆明市夏季发生极端高温几率正在增大,而在其它季节昆明极端寒害在减弱。突变分析发现昆明年平均气温、平均最低气温、极端最高和极端最低气温均在1990年初出现异常增暖。在2006年昆明观测站搬迁后,由于大型水体、城市化建设等对气温贡献率的影响,UHI变化趋势呈复杂多变的特征。昆明市在冬春季平均气温、最低气温和极端最低气温对应的城市热岛效应最明显。最低气温对应的城市热岛效应在春季体现最为突出,在气温比较高时,热岛效应并不显著。主成分分析发现,1987—2017年影响昆明市城区气温增温的主导因素是城镇人口、城市化率、人均GDP。
The homogeneous surface air temperature from 1951 through 2017 was used to explore the temperature trend in Kunming region. The results showed that the climate tendency rates of mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, extreme maximum temperature, and extreme minimum temperature having been increasing in Kunming. The asymmetric change of maximum and minimum temperature,extreme-maximum and extreme-minimum temperature is distinct. The probability of the extreme high temperature in summer has been increasing,while the extreme cold damage has been weakening in other seasons. Mutation analysis found that abnormal warming happened in early 1990 associated with the annual average temperature, minimum, and extreme-maximum and extreme-minimum temperature. The rising trend of all of UHI was obvious from 1980 through 2005. The changing trend of UHI was complex and changeable because the contribution of temperature was impacted by the large water body, urbanization construction. The urban heat island effect was embodied evidently in winter and spring in view of mean temperature, minimum temperature and extreme minimum temperature. The urban heat island effect was the most prominent in terms of minimum temperature, but it was not distinct when the temperature was higher. According to the principal component analysis, the main factors influencing the urban temperature increased in Kunming from 1987 to 2017 were urban population, urbanization rate and GDP per capita.
The homogeneous surface air temperature from 1951 through 2017 was used to explore the temperature trend in Kunming region. The results showed that the climate tendency rates of mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, extreme maximum temperature, and extreme minimum temperature having been increasing in Kunming. The asymmetric change of maximum and minimum temperature,extreme-maximum and extreme-minimum temperature is distinct. The probability of the extreme high temperature in summer has been increasing,while the extreme cold damage has been weakening in other seasons. Mutation analysis found that abnormal warming happened in early 1990 associated with the annual average temperature, minimum, and extreme-maximum and extreme-minimum temperature. The rising trend of all of UHI was obvious from 1980 through 2005. The changing trend of UHI was complex and changeable because the contribution of temperature was impacted by the large water body, urbanization construction. The urban heat island effect was embodied evidently in winter and spring in view of mean temperature, minimum temperature and extreme minimum temperature. The urban heat island effect was the most prominent in terms of minimum temperature, but it was not distinct when the temperature was higher. According to the principal component analysis, the main factors influencing the urban temperature increased in Kunming from 1987 to 2017 were urban population, urbanization rate and GDP per capita.
引文
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[2]谢庄,曹鸿兴.北京最高、最低气温的非对称变化[J].气象学报,1996,54(4):501-507.
[3]江志红,丁裕国.近百年上海气候变暖过程的再认识—平均温度与最低、最高温度的对比[J].应用气象学报,1999,10(2):151-159.
[4]赵庆由,明庆忠.近20年来昆明市城市化进程对城市热岛效应的影响研究[J].云南地理环境研究,2010,22(4):87-92.
[5]林学椿,于淑秋.北京地区气温的年代际变化和热岛效应[J].地球物理学报, 2005,48(1):39-45.
[6]陈婉,李林军,李宏永,等.深圳市蛇口半岛人工填海及其城市热岛效应分析[J].生态环境学报,2013,22(1):157-163.
[7]康晓明,崔丽娟,赵欣胜,等.北京市湿地缓解热岛效应功能分析[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(22):199-205.
[8]丁淑娟.长春城市发展对城市热岛效应的影响及减缓对策研究[D].长春:东北师范大学,2008:1-40.
[9]张宏利,陈豫,张纳伟锐,等.西安市热岛效应变化特征与城市人口发展研究[J].水土保持研究,2009,16(4):131-136.
[10]张一平,何云玲,马友鑫,等.昆明城市热岛效应立体分布特征[J].高原气象,2002,21(6):604-609.
[11]何云玲,张一平,刘玉洪,等.昆明城市气候水平空间分布特征[J].地理科学,2002,22(6):724-729.
[12]孙绩华,冯建武,段玮.昆明城市热岛效应变化特征研究[J].气候与环境研究,2015,20(6):645-653.
[13]陈艳,段旭,董文杰,等.昆明地区城市热岛效应的再分析[J].高原气象,2012,31(6):1753-1760.
[14]段旭,陶云,段长春.云南省细网格气候区划及气候代表站选取[J].大气科学学报,2011,34(3):336-342.
[15]丁一汇,戴晓苏.中国近百年来的温度变化[J].气象,1994,20(2):19-26.
[16]施能,陈家其,屠其璞.中国近100年来4个年代际的气候变化特征[J].气象学报,1995,53(4):431-439.
[17]唐国利,林学椿.1921-1990年我国气温序列及变化趋势[J].气象,1991,18(7):3-6.
[18]赵荣,王恩涌,张小林,等.人文地理学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2007:191-212.
[19]谈明洪,李秀彬,吕昌河.我国城市用地扩张的驱动力分析[J].经济地理,2003,23(5):635-639.
[20]黄嘉佑.气象统计分析与预报方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2010:121-129.