摘要
利用昆明市近70年气温资料,研究其变化趋势,结果表明,昆明市平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、极端最高气温、极端最低气温的气候倾向率均为上升趋势,最高和最低气温、极端最高和极端最低气温存在不对称变化。昆明市夏季发生极端高温几率正在增大,而在其它季节昆明极端寒害在减弱。突变分析发现昆明年平均气温、平均最低气温、极端最高和极端最低气温均在1990年初出现异常增暖。在2006年昆明观测站搬迁后,由于大型水体、城市化建设等对气温贡献率的影响,UHI变化趋势呈复杂多变的特征。昆明市在冬春季平均气温、最低气温和极端最低气温对应的城市热岛效应最明显。最低气温对应的城市热岛效应在春季体现最为突出,在气温比较高时,热岛效应并不显著。主成分分析发现,1987—2017年影响昆明市城区气温增温的主导因素是城镇人口、城市化率、人均GDP。
The homogeneous surface air temperature from 1951 through 2017 was used to explore the temperature trend in Kunming region. The results showed that the climate tendency rates of mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, extreme maximum temperature, and extreme minimum temperature having been increasing in Kunming. The asymmetric change of maximum and minimum temperature,extreme-maximum and extreme-minimum temperature is distinct. The probability of the extreme high temperature in summer has been increasing,while the extreme cold damage has been weakening in other seasons. Mutation analysis found that abnormal warming happened in early 1990 associated with the annual average temperature, minimum, and extreme-maximum and extreme-minimum temperature. The rising trend of all of UHI was obvious from 1980 through 2005. The changing trend of UHI was complex and changeable because the contribution of temperature was impacted by the large water body, urbanization construction. The urban heat island effect was embodied evidently in winter and spring in view of mean temperature, minimum temperature and extreme minimum temperature. The urban heat island effect was the most prominent in terms of minimum temperature, but it was not distinct when the temperature was higher. According to the principal component analysis, the main factors influencing the urban temperature increased in Kunming from 1987 to 2017 were urban population, urbanization rate and GDP per capita.
引文
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