南渡江河湖水系连通系统仿真与定量评价研究
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摘要
建立南渡江河湖水系连通系统动力学仿真模型(SD)和基于联系数的河湖水系连通等级评价模型(CN-AM),制定5个水系连通方案进行SD仿真模拟和CN-AM计算,得出2012年、2014年、2016年、2018年和2020年南渡江河湖水系连通系统及其各子系统的发展趋势与不同时期的水系连通联系数值和评价等级。结果表明:(1)常规发展模式下,2012年、2014年、2016年、2018年和2020年南渡江水系连通性子系统等级为2.698~2.745,自然功能和社会功能子系统的等级为3.682~3.731和3.616~3.662,河湖水系连通系统的总体状况为3.485~3.529级,处于中和良之间,主要限制指标为河频率、水系连通度、年平均径流保证率、水体纳污能力、河流水质达标率、地表水农业供水百分比、水库调节能力指数和地表水城镇供水百分比;(2)2020年,生态优先模式评价等级为0.332、资源发展模式评价等级为0.312、防洪调节模式评价等级为0.352、综合发展模式评价等级为0.397,较常规发展模式评价等级0.200联系数值均有提高。
This paper established the system dynamics simulation model and the evaluation model( CN-AM) of the IRSN in Nandu River. The development trend of IRSN and its subsystems in the Nandu River in 2012,2014,2016,2018 and 2020 were obtained. The water system connecting link value and evaluation grades of the water systems in different periods were got through five programs. The results show that a)in 2012,2014,2016,2018 and 2020,the connectivity of subsystems in the Nandu River system are 2.698-2.745,the natural function and social function subsystems are 3.682-3.731 and 3.616-3.662. The overall condition of the Nandu River system is 3.485-3.529,being in a state between the middle and good. The main limiting indicators are river frequency,water connectivity,annual average runoff guarantee rate,water body pollutant capacity,river water quality compliance rate,percentage of surface agricultural water supply,reservoir regulation ability index and percentage of surface urban water supply and; b) IRSN in Nandu River rates between the middle and good. In 2020,the evaluation grades of the water systems for other 4 programs are higher than that of the regular development mode. The ecological priority mode( 0.332),the resource development mode( 0.312),the flood control mode( 0.352) and the comprehensive development mode( 0.397) are all bigger than that of the conventional development mode( 0.200).
This paper established the system dynamics simulation model and the evaluation model( CN-AM) of the IRSN in Nandu River. The development trend of IRSN and its subsystems in the Nandu River in 2012,2014,2016,2018 and 2020 were obtained. The water system connecting link value and evaluation grades of the water systems in different periods were got through five programs. The results show that a)in 2012,2014,2016,2018 and 2020,the connectivity of subsystems in the Nandu River system are 2.698-2.745,the natural function and social function subsystems are 3.682-3.731 and 3.616-3.662. The overall condition of the Nandu River system is 3.485-3.529,being in a state between the middle and good. The main limiting indicators are river frequency,water connectivity,annual average runoff guarantee rate,water body pollutant capacity,river water quality compliance rate,percentage of surface agricultural water supply,reservoir regulation ability index and percentage of surface urban water supply and; b) IRSN in Nandu River rates between the middle and good. In 2020,the evaluation grades of the water systems for other 4 programs are higher than that of the regular development mode. The ecological priority mode( 0.332),the resource development mode( 0.312),the flood control mode( 0.352) and the comprehensive development mode( 0.397) are all bigger than that of the conventional development mode( 0.200).
引文
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[19] AHMAD Sajjad,PRASHAR Dinesh. Evaluating Municipal Water Conservation Policies Using a Dynamic Simulation Model[J]. Water Resources Management,2010,24(13):3371-3395.
[20] WINZ Ines,BRIERLEY Gary,TROWSDALE Sam. The Use of System Dynamics Simulation in Water Resources Management[J]. Water Resources Management,2009,23(7):1301-1323.
[21]李丽,徐文,陈成豪,等.基于SD模型的南渡江水系连通系统特征及其演变规律分析[J].水力发电,2017,43(3):23-29.
[22]徐华,邱彤,赵劲松,等.模糊判断矩阵构造和一致性检验的同步方法[J].北京:清华大学学报(自然科学版),2010,50(6):913-916.
[23]宋润朋.区域水安全系统动力学仿真与评价研究[D].合肥:安徽工业大学,2009:1-77.
[24]金菊良,吴开业,魏一鸣,等.基于联系数的流域水安全评价模型[J].水利学报,2008,39(4):401-409.
[25]钱耀军.生态城市可持续发展综合评价研究:以海口市为例[J].调研世界,2014(12):54-59.
[2]徐宗学,庞博.科学认识河湖水系连通问题[J].中国水利,2011(16):21-24.
[3]符传君,陈成豪,李丽,等.河湖水系连通内涵及评价指标体系研究[J].水力发电,2016,42(7):2-7.
[4]李宗礼,李原园,王忠根,等.河湖水系连通研究:概念框架[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(3):163-172.
[5]窦明,靳梦,张彦,等.基于城市水功能需求的水系连通指标阈值研究[J].水利学报,2015,46(9):1089-1096.
[6]靳梦,窦明.城市化对水系连通功能影响评价研究:以郑州市为例[J].中国农村水利水电,2013(12):47-50.
[7]孟祥永,陈星,陈栋一,等.城市水系连通性评价体系研究[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2014,42(1):24-28.
[8] SIMONOVIC S P. World Water Dynamics:Global Modeling of Water Resources[J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2002,66(3):249-267.
[9] BRIERLEY G,FRYIRS K,JAIN V. Landscape Connectivity:the Geographic Basis of Geomorphic Application[J]. Area,2006,38(2):165-174.
[10] ALI G V,ROY A G. Revisiting Hydrologic Sampling Strategies for an Accurate Assessment of Hydrologic Connectivity in Humid Temperate Systems[J]. Geography Compass,2009,3(1):350-374.
[11] TRIGG Mark A,MICHAELIDES Katerina,NEAL Jeffrey C,et al. Surface Water Connectivity Dynamics of a Large Scale Extreme Flood[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2013,505:138-149.
[12]陈守煜.水资源与防洪系统可变模糊集理论与方法[M].大连:大连理工大学出版社,2005:1-60.
[13]金菊良,王文圣,洪天求,等.流域水安全智能评价方法的理论基础探讨[J].水利学报,2006,37(8):918-925.
[14]沈时兴,金菊良,宋松柏,等.水文水资源集对分析的理论基础探讨[J].合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版),2013,36(12):26-30.
[15]冯顺新,姜莉萍,冯时.河湖水系连通影响评价指标体系研究Ⅱ:“引江济太”调水影响评价[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2015,13(1):20-27.
[16]韩奇.海南省水安全战略环境评价理论和方法研究[J].环境科学与资源利用,2006(6):18-23.
[17]王其藩.系统动力学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1997:30-135.
[18]王其藩.系统动力学理论与方法的新进展[J].系统工程理论方法应用,1995:4(2):6-12.
[19] AHMAD Sajjad,PRASHAR Dinesh. Evaluating Municipal Water Conservation Policies Using a Dynamic Simulation Model[J]. Water Resources Management,2010,24(13):3371-3395.
[20] WINZ Ines,BRIERLEY Gary,TROWSDALE Sam. The Use of System Dynamics Simulation in Water Resources Management[J]. Water Resources Management,2009,23(7):1301-1323.
[21]李丽,徐文,陈成豪,等.基于SD模型的南渡江水系连通系统特征及其演变规律分析[J].水力发电,2017,43(3):23-29.
[22]徐华,邱彤,赵劲松,等.模糊判断矩阵构造和一致性检验的同步方法[J].北京:清华大学学报(自然科学版),2010,50(6):913-916.
[23]宋润朋.区域水安全系统动力学仿真与评价研究[D].合肥:安徽工业大学,2009:1-77.
[24]金菊良,吴开业,魏一鸣,等.基于联系数的流域水安全评价模型[J].水利学报,2008,39(4):401-409.
[25]钱耀军.生态城市可持续发展综合评价研究:以海口市为例[J].调研世界,2014(12):54-59.