政策不确定性与企业投资-现金流敏感性
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摘要
本文实证检验了官员更替这一"准自然实验"引致的政策不确定性对企业投资-现金流敏感性的影响及融资成本的中介效应。研究发现:官员更替引致的政策不确定性会提升企业投资-现金流敏感性,且这种提升作用在非国企样本、低市场化水平样本以及非交流官员样本中更加显著。动态联立方程、因果内生性、替换变量衡量指标等检验验证了回归结果的稳健性。进一步研究发现,政策不确定性通过提升企业外部融资成本,增强了企业外部融资约束,进而提高了企业投资-现金流敏感性,同时,中介效应检验排除了代理成本假说的替代性解释。中央应减少官员频繁更替对企业经营活动的冲击。
This paper empirically examines the influence of policy uncertainty caused by officials replacement which is a quasi nature experiment on enterprises' investment-cash flow sensitivity, and further studies the intermediary effect of the financing cost. It finds that policy uncertainty caused by officials replacement will significantly enhance enterprises' investment-cash flow sensitivity, and the promotion effect is more significant in non-state-owned enterprises samples, low-marketization-level samples and non-exchange officials samples. The results are still valid after the robustness tests such as the dynamic simultaneous equations, the causal endogeneity test, and the replacing variable measurement index. Further studies find that policy uncertainty enhances enterprises' external financing constraint by increasing enterprises' external financing cost, thus improving enterprises' investment-cash flow sensitivity, while the intermediary effect test excludes the agency cost hypothesis' s alternative explanation. The central government should reduce the impact of officials frequent turnover on enterprises' business activities.
This paper empirically examines the influence of policy uncertainty caused by officials replacement which is a quasi nature experiment on enterprises' investment-cash flow sensitivity, and further studies the intermediary effect of the financing cost. It finds that policy uncertainty caused by officials replacement will significantly enhance enterprises' investment-cash flow sensitivity, and the promotion effect is more significant in non-state-owned enterprises samples, low-marketization-level samples and non-exchange officials samples. The results are still valid after the robustness tests such as the dynamic simultaneous equations, the causal endogeneity test, and the replacing variable measurement index. Further studies find that policy uncertainty enhances enterprises' external financing constraint by increasing enterprises' external financing cost, thus improving enterprises' investment-cash flow sensitivity, while the intermediary effect test excludes the agency cost hypothesis' s alternative explanation. The central government should reduce the impact of officials frequent turnover on enterprises' business activities.
引文
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[21] 申宇,傅立立,赵静梅.市委书记更替对企业寻租影响的实证研究[J].中国工业经济,2015,(9):37-52.
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[24] Broussard J.,Buchenroth S.A.,Pilotte E.A.CEO Incentives,Cash Flow,and Investment[J].Financial Management,2004,33(2):51-70.
[25] Piotroski J.D.,Zhang T.Politicians and the IPO Decision:The Impact of Impending Political Promotions on IPO Activity in China[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2014,111(1):111-136.
[26] Gatchev V.A.,Pulvino T.,Tarhan V.The Interdependent and Intertemporal Nature of Financial Decisions:An Application to Cash Flow Sensitivities[J].The Journal of Finance,2010,65(2):725-763.
[27] 申慧慧,于鹏,吴联生.国有股权、环境不确定性与投资效率[J].经济研究,2012,(7):113-126.
[28] Baron R.M.,Kenny D.A.The Moderator-Mediator Variable Distinction in Social Psychological Research:Conceptual,Strategic and Statistical Considerations[J].Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,1986,51(6):1172-1182.
[29] Pittman J.,Fortin S.Auditor Choice and the Cost of Debt Capital for Newly Public Firms[J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,2004,37(1):113-136.
[30] 戴亦一,肖金利,潘越.“乡音”能否降低公司代理成本?[J].经济研究,2016,(12):147-160.
[2] 才国伟,吴华强,徐信忠.政策不确定性对公司投融资行为的影响研究[J].金融研究,2018,(3):89-104.
[3] 陈艳艳,罗党论.地方官员更替与企业投资[J].经济研究,2012,(2):18-30.
[4] 徐业坤,钱先航,李维安.政治不确定性、政治关联与民营企业投资——来自市委书记更替的证据[J].管理世界,2013,(5):116-130.
[5] 雷光勇,王文忠,邱保印.政治冲击、银行信贷与会计稳健性[J].财经研究,2015,(3):121-131.
[6] 姜彭,王文忠,雷光勇.政治冲击、不确定性与企业现金持有[J].南开管理评论,2015,(4):130-138.
[7] Modigliani F.,Miller M.H.The Cost of Capital,Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment[J].American Economic Review,1958,48(3):261-297.
[8] Wei K.C.J.,Zhang Y.Ownership Structure,Cash Flow,and Capital Investment:Evidence from East Asian Economies before the Financial Crisis[J].Journal of Corporate Finance,2008,14(2):118-132.
[9] Fazzari S.M.,Hubbard R.G.,Petersen B.C.Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment[J].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1988,19(1):141-195.
[10] Myers S.C.,Majluf N.S.Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions when Firms have Information that Investors do not have[J].Journal of Financial Economics,1984,13(2):187-221.
[11] Jensen M.Agency Cost of Free Cash Flow,Corporate Finance,and Takeovers[J].American Economic Review,1986,76(2):323-329.
[12] Fazzari S.M.,Petersen B.C.Working Capital and Fixed Investment:New Evidence on Financing Constraints[J].Rand Journal of Economics,1993,24(3):328-342.
[13] 曾爱民,魏志华.融资约束、财务柔性与企业投资-现金流敏感性——理论分析及来自中国上市公司的经验证据[J].财经研究,2013,(11):48-58.
[14] 罗党论,廖俊平,王珏.地方官员变更与企业风险——基于中国上市公司的经验证据[J].经济研究,2016,(5):130-142.
[15] 陈德球,陈运森,董志勇.政策不确定性、市场竞争与资本配置[J].金融研究,2017,(11):65-80.
[16] Julio B.,Yook Y.Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles[J].The Journal of Finance,2012,67(1):45-84.
[17] 钱爱民,张晨宇.政治冲击、不确定性风险与商业信贷合约[J].山西财经大学学报,2016,(5):22-32.
[18] 连军,刘星,杨晋渝.政治联系、银行贷款与公司价值[J].南开管理评论,2011,(5):48-57.
[19] Kornai J.“Hard” and “Soft” Budget Constraint[J].Acta Oeconomica,1980,25(3-4):231-245.
[20] Fan J.P.H.,Wei K.C.J.,Xu X.Z.Corporate Finance and Governance in Emerging Markets:A Selective Review and an Agenda for Future Research[J].Journal of Corporate Finance,2011,17(2):207-214.
[21] 申宇,傅立立,赵静梅.市委书记更替对企业寻租影响的实证研究[J].中国工业经济,2015,(9):37-52.
[22] 杨海生,罗党论,陈少凌.资源禀赋、官员交流与经济增长[J].管理世界,2010,(5):17-26.
[23] 王小鲁,樊纲,余静文.中国分省份市场化指数报告(2016)[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2017.
[24] Broussard J.,Buchenroth S.A.,Pilotte E.A.CEO Incentives,Cash Flow,and Investment[J].Financial Management,2004,33(2):51-70.
[25] Piotroski J.D.,Zhang T.Politicians and the IPO Decision:The Impact of Impending Political Promotions on IPO Activity in China[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2014,111(1):111-136.
[26] Gatchev V.A.,Pulvino T.,Tarhan V.The Interdependent and Intertemporal Nature of Financial Decisions:An Application to Cash Flow Sensitivities[J].The Journal of Finance,2010,65(2):725-763.
[27] 申慧慧,于鹏,吴联生.国有股权、环境不确定性与投资效率[J].经济研究,2012,(7):113-126.
[28] Baron R.M.,Kenny D.A.The Moderator-Mediator Variable Distinction in Social Psychological Research:Conceptual,Strategic and Statistical Considerations[J].Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,1986,51(6):1172-1182.
[29] Pittman J.,Fortin S.Auditor Choice and the Cost of Debt Capital for Newly Public Firms[J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,2004,37(1):113-136.
[30] 戴亦一,肖金利,潘越.“乡音”能否降低公司代理成本?[J].经济研究,2016,(12):147-160.