家庭视角的流动人口城市定居意愿及其影响机制——基于中国8个城市的实证分析
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摘要
采用了8个具有代表性城市的抽样调查数据,基于家庭视角对流动人口家庭城市定居意愿及其影响因素进行研究。通过从长期居住打算、社会保障、社会认同、家庭迁移、户口迁移等方面构建家庭城市定居意愿指数(FSI),研究发现:武汉、无锡、苏州、西安的流动人口家庭城市定居意愿较高,上海处于中间水平,而泉州、长沙和咸阳的流动人口的家庭城市定居意愿较低。采用回归分析发现:不同城市流动人口定居意愿的影响因素存在一定差异,但家庭因素的影响具有一致性,呈现所在城市越有利于对其家庭成员的照顾和发展,流动人口家庭城市定居意愿则越强烈的特征。最后,提出创建"家庭友好型"的城乡发展新秩序,实现流动人口家庭城市定居和发展,提升人口城市化质量。
In the 40 years since the reform and opening up, the urbanization rate of China's population has increased substantially, and the pattern of population mobility has also changed from individual mobility to family migration. However, most of the existing studies are based on individual dimensions to analyze the settlement willingness of China's floating population, and less from the family dimension. In the context of the pursuit of highly educated and highly skilled personnel in China's big cities, the family development of low-education migrants is easily overlooked. This paper uses sample survey data of eight representative cities to study the willingness of migrant families and their influencing factors based on family perspective. By constructing the Family Settlement Index(FSI) from long-term residential plan, social security, social identification, family migration, and household registration(hukou), this study found that migrant families in Wuhan, Wuxi, Suzhou, and Xi'an have higher willingness to settle in cities. Shanghai is at an intermediate level, while the floating population of Quanzhou, Changsha and Xianyang has a lower willingness to settle. Using regression analysis, it is found that the households' willingness to settle in the third-tier cities is significantly lower than that of the first-tier cities; the higher the per capita GDP and the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP, the higher the willingness of migrant families to settle. Among the urban social factors, if the city is convenient for migrants to take care of family members and children to obtain better education, the higher the willingness of migrant families to settle in cities. Consistent with existing research, the longer the residence time and the shorter the flow distance, the higher the willingness of the floating population to settle in the city. Among the rural factors, the amount of money returned to the hometown and the household expenses of the home have a negative effect on the willingness of the floating population to settle in the city. In short, there are some differences in the factors affecting the settlement willingness of migrants in different cities, but the influence of family factors is consistent, showing that the city is more conducive to the care and development of its family members, and the stronger the willingness of migrant families to settle in the city. Compared with the existing research that measures the willingness to settle by a single variable, this study comprehensively constructs the family settlement index of the floating population from the family perspective, and more accurately assesses the willingness of the floating population to settle in the city. In terms of analytical methods, this study used a multilevel regression analysis method to analyze the correlation between "city-family settlement" and explore the inter-city differences in the impact mechanism of floating population family settlement willingness. This study empirically explains the impact of China's urbanization process on the urbanization of vulnerable migrant families, and is of great significance for understanding the social effects of China's urbanization process. Finally, at the policy level, this paper proposes to create a "family-friendly" new urban-rural development order to achieve the settlement and development of migrant families, which is an important part of improving the quality of population urbanization.
In the 40 years since the reform and opening up, the urbanization rate of China's population has increased substantially, and the pattern of population mobility has also changed from individual mobility to family migration. However, most of the existing studies are based on individual dimensions to analyze the settlement willingness of China's floating population, and less from the family dimension. In the context of the pursuit of highly educated and highly skilled personnel in China's big cities, the family development of low-education migrants is easily overlooked. This paper uses sample survey data of eight representative cities to study the willingness of migrant families and their influencing factors based on family perspective. By constructing the Family Settlement Index(FSI) from long-term residential plan, social security, social identification, family migration, and household registration(hukou), this study found that migrant families in Wuhan, Wuxi, Suzhou, and Xi'an have higher willingness to settle in cities. Shanghai is at an intermediate level, while the floating population of Quanzhou, Changsha and Xianyang has a lower willingness to settle. Using regression analysis, it is found that the households' willingness to settle in the third-tier cities is significantly lower than that of the first-tier cities; the higher the per capita GDP and the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP, the higher the willingness of migrant families to settle. Among the urban social factors, if the city is convenient for migrants to take care of family members and children to obtain better education, the higher the willingness of migrant families to settle in cities. Consistent with existing research, the longer the residence time and the shorter the flow distance, the higher the willingness of the floating population to settle in the city. Among the rural factors, the amount of money returned to the hometown and the household expenses of the home have a negative effect on the willingness of the floating population to settle in the city. In short, there are some differences in the factors affecting the settlement willingness of migrants in different cities, but the influence of family factors is consistent, showing that the city is more conducive to the care and development of its family members, and the stronger the willingness of migrant families to settle in the city. Compared with the existing research that measures the willingness to settle by a single variable, this study comprehensively constructs the family settlement index of the floating population from the family perspective, and more accurately assesses the willingness of the floating population to settle in the city. In terms of analytical methods, this study used a multilevel regression analysis method to analyze the correlation between "city-family settlement" and explore the inter-city differences in the impact mechanism of floating population family settlement willingness. This study empirically explains the impact of China's urbanization process on the urbanization of vulnerable migrant families, and is of great significance for understanding the social effects of China's urbanization process. Finally, at the policy level, this paper proposes to create a "family-friendly" new urban-rural development order to achieve the settlement and development of migrant families, which is an important part of improving the quality of population urbanization.
引文
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(1)流动人口动态监测调查介绍http://www.chinaldrk.org.cn/wjw/#/home。
(2)笔者注:学界围绕农村土地制度改革而衍生的人口城市化政策有许多争论(陈浩等,2015)。
陈浩,张京祥,陈宏胜.2015.新型城镇化视角下中国“土地红利”开发模式转型.经济地理,35(4):1-8.[Chen Hao,Zhang Jingxiang and Chen Hongsheng.2015.The Transformation of Land Dividend Under the Perspective of New Urbanization.Economic Geography,35(4):1-8.]
陈宏胜,刘振东,李志刚.2015.中国大城市新移民社会融合研究.现代城市研究,(6):112-119.[Chen Hongsheng,Liu Zhendong and Li Zhigang.2015.Social Integration of Neo-Immigrants in Urban China:A case study of six large cities.Modern Urban Research,(6):112-119.]
Chen H,Wang X,Chen G and Li zhigang.2018.Upward social mobility in China:Do cities and neighbourhoods matter?.Habitat International,82:94-103.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2018.10.003.
陈宏胜,王兴平,贺志华.2015.城镇化的家庭转向:个体城镇化向家庭城镇化转变的实证研究.规划师,31(10):82-88.[Chen Hongsheng,Wang Xingping and He Zhihua.2015.From individual to familial urbanization:A positive study.Planners,31(10):82-88.]
陈宏胜,王兴平,刘晔,李志刚.2017.“理性”与“感性”之间:上海流动人口迁居意愿研究.现代城市研究,(7):100-106.[Chen Hongsheng,Wang Xingping,Liu Ye and Li Zhigang.2017.Between Sensibility and Rationality:Study on Shanghai Migrants'Residential Mobility Intention.Modern Urban Research,(7):100-106.]
陈宏胜,王兴平.2016.促进农村家庭城镇化的城乡规划转型探讨.现代城市研究,31(4):16-21.[Chen Hongsheng and Wang Xingpin.2016.Discussion on the urban-rural planning transformation in the background of promoting urbanization of rural households.Modern Urban Research,31(4):16-21.]
陈宏胜,王兴平.2015.面向农民工家庭的城镇公共服务体系优化:农民工市民化的关键.规划师,31(3):11-16.[Chen Hongsheng and Wang Xingping.2015.Improving public service for rural migrant workers.Planners,31(3):11-16.]
Cheng T and Selden M.1994.The origins and social consequences of China's hukou system.The China Quarterly,139:644-668.
Ellis F.1998.Household strategies and rural livelihood diversification.Journal of Development Studies,35(1):1-38.
范芝芬.2013.流动中国:迁移、国家和家庭.北京:社会科学文献出版社.[Fan Zhifen.2013.China on the move:Migration,the state,and the household.Beijing:Social Sciences Academic Press.]
Fan C C,Sun M and Zheng S.2011.Migration and split households:a comparison of sole,couple,and family migrants in Beijing,China.Environment&Planning A,43(9):2164-2185.
Fan C C and Wang W W.2008.The household as security:Strategies of rural-urban migrants in China.In:Nielsen,R.Smyth.Migration and social protection in China.New Jersey.NY:World Scientific,205-243.
Fan C C.2003.Rural-urban migration and gender division of labor in transitional China.International Journal of Urban and Regional Research,27(1):24-47.
冯长春,李天娇,曹广忠,沈昊婧.2017.家庭式迁移的流动人口住房状况.地理研究,36(4):633-646.[Feng Changchun,LI Tianjiao,Cao Guangzhong and Shen Haojing.2017.Housing outcomes of family migrants at the place of destination.Geographical Research,36(4):633-646.]
符平,唐有财,江立华.2012.农民工的职业分割与向上流动.中国人口科学,(6):75-82.[Fu Ping,Tang Youcai and Jiang Lihua.2012.The Occupational Segregation and Upward Mobility of Migrant Workers.Chinese Journal of Population Science,(6):75-82.]
Huang Y and Yi C.2015.Invisible migrant enclaves in Chinese cities:Underground living in Beijing,China.Urban Studies,52(15):2948-2973.
侯慧丽.2016.城市公共服务的供给差异及其对人口流动的影响.中国人口科学,(1):118-125.[Hou Huili.2016.The Difference of Urban Public Service Supply and Its Influence on Population Movement.Chinese Journal of Population Science,(1):118-125.]
Keung Wong D F,Li C Y and Song H X.2007.Rural migrant workers in urban China:living a marginalised life.International Journal of Social Welfare,16(1):32-40.
李郇,殷江滨.2012.劳动力回流:小城镇发展的新动力.城市规划学刊,(2):47-53.[Li Xun and Yin Jiangbin.2012.Returning migrants:Anew impetus for small town development.Urban Planning Forum,(2):47-53.]
李志刚.2012.中国大都市新移民的住房模式与影响机制.地理学报,67(2):189-200.[Li Zhigang.2012.Housing Conditions,Patterns and Mechanisms of Second Generation Migrants in Urban China:A Case Study of Six Large Cities.Acta Geographica Sinica,67(2):189-200.]
梁土坤.2016.流动人口定居意愿影响因素分析.人口与社会,32(2):63-74.[Liang Tukun.2016.An analysis of influencing factors of settling willingness of floating population.Population and Society,32(2):63-74.]
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(1)流动人口动态监测调查介绍http://www.chinaldrk.org.cn/wjw/#/home。
(2)笔者注:学界围绕农村土地制度改革而衍生的人口城市化政策有许多争论(陈浩等,2015)。