钟模型法建立甘蔗发育期模拟模型
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摘要
基于作物发育动态理论模型原理及钟模型方法构建甘蔗发育期模拟模型(SDSM,sugarcane developmentsimulation model),模拟新植蔗和多年宿根蔗不同发育期。利用广西甘蔗主产区(宜州、沙塘、来宾、扶绥、贵港)的甘蔗发育期多年观测资料及同期气象数据,结合甘蔗各发育阶段的三基点温度指标,通过试错法确定甘蔗发育期模拟模型(SDSM)参数,模拟新植蔗、宿根蔗各发育期(播种-出苗、出苗-分蘖、分蘖-茎伸长、茎伸长-工艺成熟)。通过模拟值与实测值对比分析,对模拟效果进行评价。结果表明:模型具有较强的机理性,模型中基本发育函数部分反映了品种的基因特性,模型能够有效模拟甘蔗的发育期。新植蔗各发育阶段NRMSE在5.2%～26.31%,播种-出苗阶段模拟值与实测值相差8.1d,出苗-分蘖相差7.4d,分蘖-茎伸长相差4.6d,茎伸长-工艺成熟相差7.4d;宿根蔗各发育阶段NRMSE在6.52%～21.66%,上一年工艺成熟-发株阶段模拟值与实测值相差8.8d,发株-分蘖相差8.7d,分蘖-茎伸长相差7.5d,茎伸长-工艺成熟相差9.9d。说明模拟值与实测值具有较好的一致性与相关性,模型可以实现对甘蔗发育期的预测。
Based on the principle of theoretical model of crop development dynamics and clock model method, a sugarcane development simulation model(SDSM) was constructed to simulate the different development stages of new planting and perennial sugarcane. The data of sugarcane development stages from five major production sites(Yizhou, Shatang, Laibin, Fusui, Guigang) with three verities(Taitang 16, Taitang 22 and Guitang 25) and related meteorological data from 2003 to 2012 provided by Guangxi Meteorological Information Center were used. The whole growing period was divided as four development stages: sowing to emergence, emergence to tillering, tillering to stem elongation, and stem elongation to technical maturity. The parameters of SDSM model were determined by trial and error method. The simulation results of sugarcane development simulation model were evaluated by comparing the simulated and measured values. For new planting sugarcane, the NRMSE of each development stage was 5.2%-26.3%, the RMSE of simulated result and measured value were 8.1 days in the stage of seeding to emergence, 7.4 days in emergence to tillering, 4.6 days in tillering to stem elongation, and 7.4 days in stem elongation to technical maturity. For perennial sugarcane, the NRMSE of each developmental stage was6.5%-21.7%, the RMSE of simulated result and measured value were 8.8 days in the stage of technical maturity to regrowth, 8.7 days in regrowth to tillering, 7.6 days in tillering to stem elongation, 9.9 days in stem elongation to technical maturity. It showed good consistency and correlation between the simulated and measured values. The model could effectively simulate the development period of sugarcane.
Based on the principle of theoretical model of crop development dynamics and clock model method, a sugarcane development simulation model(SDSM) was constructed to simulate the different development stages of new planting and perennial sugarcane. The data of sugarcane development stages from five major production sites(Yizhou, Shatang, Laibin, Fusui, Guigang) with three verities(Taitang 16, Taitang 22 and Guitang 25) and related meteorological data from 2003 to 2012 provided by Guangxi Meteorological Information Center were used. The whole growing period was divided as four development stages: sowing to emergence, emergence to tillering, tillering to stem elongation, and stem elongation to technical maturity. The parameters of SDSM model were determined by trial and error method. The simulation results of sugarcane development simulation model were evaluated by comparing the simulated and measured values. For new planting sugarcane, the NRMSE of each development stage was 5.2%-26.3%, the RMSE of simulated result and measured value were 8.1 days in the stage of seeding to emergence, 7.4 days in emergence to tillering, 4.6 days in tillering to stem elongation, and 7.4 days in stem elongation to technical maturity. For perennial sugarcane, the NRMSE of each developmental stage was6.5%-21.7%, the RMSE of simulated result and measured value were 8.8 days in the stage of technical maturity to regrowth, 8.7 days in regrowth to tillering, 7.6 days in tillering to stem elongation, 9.9 days in stem elongation to technical maturity. It showed good consistency and correlation between the simulated and measured values. The model could effectively simulate the development period of sugarcane.
引文
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[23]匡昭敏,朱伟军,丁美花,等.多源卫星数据在甘蔗干旱遥感监测中的应用[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(1):93-96.Kuang Z M,Zhu W J,Ding M H,et al.Application of multi-sources satellite data in monitoring sugarcane droughts[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2007,28(1):93-96.(in Chinese)
[2]杨昆,蔡青,刘家勇,等.甘蔗生长模型研究进展[J].湖南农业大学学报(自然科学版),2015,41(1):29-34.Yang K,Cai Q,Liu J Y,et al.Advances in simulation models of sugarcane growth[J].Journal of Hunan Agricultural University(Natural Sciences),2015,41(1):29-34.(in Chinese)
[3]Inman-Bamber N G,Lakshmanan P,Park S.Sugarcane for water-limited environments:theoretical assessment of suitable traits[J].Field Crop Research,2012,134:95-104.
[4]黄智刚,谢晋波.我国亚热带地区甘蔗产量的模型模拟[J].中国糖料,2007,(1):8-12.Huang Z G,Xie J B.Simulation model of sugarcane yield using in subtropical China[J].Sugar Crops of China,2007,(1):8-12.(in Chinese)
[5]Singh K K,Mall R K,Singh R S,et al.Evaluation of CANEGROSugarcane model in East Uttar Pradesh,India[J].Journal of Agrometeorology,2010,12(12):181-186.
[6]毛钧,Inman-Bamber N G,杨昆,等.甘蔗农业生产系统模拟模型模块化设计与应用研究进展[J].中国糖料,2017,39(1):44-50.Mao J,Inman-Bamber N G,Yang K,et al.Modular design and application of agricultural system simulating model for sugarcane(APSIM-Sugar)[J].Sugar Crops of China,2017,39(1):44-50.(in Chinese)
[7]Keating B A,Robertson M J,Muchow R C,et al.Modelling sugarcane production systems I:development and performance of the sugarcane module[J].Field Crops Research,1999,61:253-271.
[8]O'Leary G J.A review of three sugarcane simulation models with respect to their prediction of sucrose yield[J].Field Crop Research,2000,68:97-111.
[9]Liu D L,Helyar K R.Simulation of seasonal stalk water content and fresh weight yield of sugarcane[J].Field Crop Research,2003,82:59-73.
[10]钟楚,周臣,徐梦莹.甘蔗生理发育时间及生育期预测[J].中国糖料,2012,(2):49-51.Zhong C,Zhou C,Xu M Y.Forecasting growth and development stage of sugarcane based on physiological development time[J].Sugar Crops of China,2012,(2):49-51.(in Chinese)
[11]钟楚,金莉莉,周臣,等.云南耿马甘蔗茎伸长量与气象因子的关系及其模拟预测[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(4):582-586.Zhong C,Jin L L,Zhou C,et al.Relationship between sugarcane stem elongation and meteorological factors and elongation prediction in Gengma,Yunnan[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2011,32(4):582-586.(in Chinese)
[12]Gao L Z,Jin Z Q,Huang Y,et al.Rice clock model a computer model to simulate rice development[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,1992,60:1-161.
[13]冯利平,高亮之,金之庆,等.小麦发育期动态模拟模型的研究[J].作物学报,1997,23(4):418-424.Feng L P,Gao L Z,Jin Z Q,et al.Studies on the simulation Model for wheat phenology[J].Acta Agronomica Sinica,1997,23(4):418-424.(in Chinese)
[14]冯利平,高亮之.一个作物发育动态理论模型[J].中国农业大学学报,1999,4(S):16-19.Feng L P,Gao L Z.A general crop phenological theory model[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,1999,4(S):16-19.(in Chinese)
[15]周静,王纪章,李萍萍,等.温室水果黄瓜叶片扩展及干物质再分配动态模拟模型[J].北方园艺,2011,(12):10-13.Zhou J,Wang J Z,Li P P,et al.Dynamic simulation model of leaf expansion and dry matter redistribution of fruit cucumber in greenhouse[J].Northern Horticulture,2011,(12):10-13.(in Chinese)
[16]Wu L,Feng L P,Zhang Y,et al.Comparison of five wheat models simulating phenology under different sowing dates and varieties[J].Agronomy Joumal,2017,109(4):1280-1293.
[17]苏永秀,李政,孙涵.基于GIS的广西甘蔗种植气候区划[J].中国农业气象,2006,27(3):252-255.Su Y X,Li Z,Sun H.Climate division of sugarcane planting based on GIS in Guangxi[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2006,27(3):252:255.(in Chinese)
[18]唐湘如.作物栽培学[M].广州:广东高等教育出版社,2014:272-275.Tang X R.Crop cultivation[M].Guangzhou:Guangdong Higher Education Press,2014:272-275.(in Chinese)
[19]杨文钰,屠乃美.作物栽培学各论(南方本)[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2011:278-281.Yang W Y,Tu N M.The theory of crop cultivation(southern)[M].Beijing:China Agricultural Publishing House,2011:278-281.(in Chinese)
[20]曹卫星.作物学通论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001:163-166.Cao W X.General crop cultivation[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2001:163-166.(in Chinese)
[21]余松烈.作物栽培学[M].重庆:重庆出版社,2001.Yu S L.Crop cultivation[M].Chongqing:Chongqing Publishing House,2001.(in Chinese)
[22]Feng L P,Bouman B A M,Tuong T P,et al.Exploring options to grow rice using less water in northern China using a modelling approach I:field experiments and model evaluation[J].Agricultural Water Management,2007,(88):1-13.
[23]匡昭敏,朱伟军,丁美花,等.多源卫星数据在甘蔗干旱遥感监测中的应用[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(1):93-96.Kuang Z M,Zhu W J,Ding M H,et al.Application of multi-sources satellite data in monitoring sugarcane droughts[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2007,28(1):93-96.(in Chinese)