中国福利水平的时空分异特征及动力机制研究
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摘要
以全国30个省市为分析对象,选取2005—2016年的面板数据作为研究样本,通过构建指标体系,运用熵值法测度出了各个省市的福利水平,运用全局空间自相关和地理加权回归模型分析中国福利水平的时空分异特征及其动力机制。认为:中国福利水平存在显著的省际空间差异和向"山"字型布局特征发展的趋势。各动力因子的影响力空间上存在显著差异,就影响程度而言,从强到弱依次为开放动力、经济动力、消费动力、环境动力、政府动力和信息化动力。最后从有效借助优势统筹发展、优化空间布局均衡发展、因时因地制宜重点发展三个方面,并结合十九大关于区域协调发展战略方面提出重点发展、协调发展等措施。
Taking 30 provinces and cities nationwide as the analysis object,we take the panel data of2005—2016 as the research sample. By constructing the index system,we use the entropy method to measure the welfare level of each province and city. The global spatial autocorrelation and geographic weighted regression model are used to analyze the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics and dynamic mechanism of the middle welfare level. The following conclusions have been drawn:There are significant inter-provincial spatial differences in China's welfare level and the trend toward the development of the "mountain"type layout. There are significant differences in the influence space of each power factor. In terms of the degree of influence from strong to weak,it is open power,economic power,consumption power,environmental power,government power and information power. Finally,in the aspects of resorting to the effective development of advantages,optimizing spatial layout and balanced development,and developing key projects as the local situations permit,we offer corresponding policy recommendations on the regional coordinated development strategy of the19 th National Congress.
Taking 30 provinces and cities nationwide as the analysis object,we take the panel data of2005—2016 as the research sample. By constructing the index system,we use the entropy method to measure the welfare level of each province and city. The global spatial autocorrelation and geographic weighted regression model are used to analyze the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics and dynamic mechanism of the middle welfare level. The following conclusions have been drawn:There are significant inter-provincial spatial differences in China's welfare level and the trend toward the development of the "mountain"type layout. There are significant differences in the influence space of each power factor. In terms of the degree of influence from strong to weak,it is open power,economic power,consumption power,environmental power,government power and information power. Finally,in the aspects of resorting to the effective development of advantages,optimizing spatial layout and balanced development,and developing key projects as the local situations permit,we offer corresponding policy recommendations on the regional coordinated development strategy of the19 th National Congress.
引文
[1]魏敏,李书昊.新时代中国经济高质量发展水平的测度研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018(11):3-20.
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[15]方福前.中国城镇居民福利水平影响因素分析——基于阿马蒂亚·森的能力方法和结构方程模型[J].管理世界,2009(4):17-26.
[16]宋艳,苏子逢,门建营,等.基于Sen可行能力理论的农民工福利制度改进研究[J].管理世界,2017(11):172-173.
[17]周绍杰,胡鞍钢.理解经济发展与社会进步:基于国民幸福的视角[J].中国软科学,2012(1):57-64.
[18]郑芳,侯迎,陈田.海南省居民福利指标体系构建及筛选方法选择[J].统计与决策,2012(3):35-38.
[19]范如国,张宏娟.民生福祉评价模型及增进策略——基于信度、结构效度分析和结构方程模型[J].经济管理,2012(9):161-168.
[20]陆万军,张彬斌.就业类型、社会福利与流动人口城市融入——来自微观数据的经验证据[J].经济学家,2018(8):34-41.
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[22]庇古.福利经济学[M].北京:华夏出版社,2007:56-78.
[23]关信平.当前中国社会政策的目标及总体福利水平分析[J].中国社会科学,2017(6):91-101.
[24]李雪莹.中国城镇居民福利水平评价及影响因素研究[D].西安:西北大学,2013:7,16.
[25]程艳.徐州市城市化与生态环境耦合协调发展研究[D].徐州:中国矿业大学,2014:45.
[26]王富喜,毛爱华,李赫龙,等.基于熵值法的山东省城镇化质量测度及空间差异分析[J].地理科学,2013,33(11):1323-1329.
[27]秦辉,王瑜炜.浙江省县域福利水平的时空变化[J].华东经济管理,2015,29(2):28-34.
[28]陈彦光.基于Moran统计量的空间自相关理论发展和方法改进[J].地理研究,2009,28(6):1449-1463.
[29]刘卫东,刘红光,范晓梅,等.地区间贸易流量的产业——空间模型构建与应用[J].地理学报,2012,67(2):147-156.
[30]吴磊,焦华富,叶雷,等.中国省际教育城镇化的时空特征及影响因素[J].地理科学,2018,38(1):58-66.
[31]胡宇娜,梅林,魏建国.基于GWR模型的中国区域旅行社业效率空间分异及动力机制分析[J].地理科学,2018,38(1):107-113.
[32]毕斗斗,方远平,谢蔓,等.中国省域服务业创新水平的时空演变及其动力机制——基于空间计量模型的实证研究[J].经济地理,2015,35(10):139-148.
[33]徐维祥,刘程军.产业集群创新与县域城镇化耦合协调的空间格局及驱动力——以浙江为实证[J].地理科学,2015,35(11):1347-1356.
[34]周春山,黄婉玲,刘扬.中国城市经济开放度时空演化及影响因素[J].地域研究与开发,2018,37(02):1-8.
[35]陈威,潘润秋,王心怡.中国省域对外开放度时空格局演化与驱动机制[J].地理与地理信息科学,2016,32(3):53-60.
[2]杨爱婷,宋德勇.中国社会福利水平的测度及对低福利增长的分析——基于功能与能力的视角[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2012,29(11):3-17.
[3]周靖祥.中国社会与经济不平衡发展测度与治理方略研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018(11):21-38.
[4]贾俊雪,李紫霄,秦聪.社会保障与经济增长:基于拟自然实验的分析[J].中国工业经济,2018(11):42-60.
[5]PHILIP D,ANDREW J,MARTIN,et al. Teachers'workplace well-being:Exploring a process model of goal orientation,coping behavior,engagement,and burnout[J]. Teaching and Teacher Education,2012(4):503-513.
[6]CAROLA GRUEN, STEPHAN KLASEN. Has transition improved well-being[J]. Economic Systems,2012(1):11-30.
[7]IRVINE I J,SIMS W A. A simple and efficient method for estimating the magnitude and precision of welfare changes:Comment[J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics,2002,17(1):81-83.
[8]SCOLLON,CHRISTIE N,KIM-PRIETO C,et al. Experience Sampling:Promises and Pitfalls,Strengths and Weaknesses[J].Journal of Happiness Studies,2003,4(1):5-34.
[9]DANIEL K,ALAN B,DAVID A,et al. Survey Method for Characterizing Daily Life Experience:The Day Reconstruction Method[J]. Stone Science,2004(306):1776-1780.
[10]BRENNAN A J. A critique of the perceived solid conceptual foundations of ISEW&GPI-irving fisher’s cognisance of human-health capital in‘net psychic income’[J]. Ecological Economics,2013(88):159-166.
[11]LAWN P. The failure of the ISEW and GPI to fully account for changes in human-health capital-A methodological shortcoming not a theoretical weakness[J]. Ecological Economics,2013(88):167-177.
[12]BARR D A. A research protocol to evaluate the effectiveness of public-private partnerships as a mean to improve health and welfare systems worldwide[J]. American Journal of Public Health,2007,97(1):19-25.
[13]PULSELLI F M,BRAVI M,TIEZZI E. Application and use of the ISEW for assessing the sustainability of a regional system:A case study in Italy[J]. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization,2012,81(3):766-77.
[14]杨缅昆.国民福利:核算理论和方法[J].统计研究,2008(5):18-22.
[15]方福前.中国城镇居民福利水平影响因素分析——基于阿马蒂亚·森的能力方法和结构方程模型[J].管理世界,2009(4):17-26.
[16]宋艳,苏子逢,门建营,等.基于Sen可行能力理论的农民工福利制度改进研究[J].管理世界,2017(11):172-173.
[17]周绍杰,胡鞍钢.理解经济发展与社会进步:基于国民幸福的视角[J].中国软科学,2012(1):57-64.
[18]郑芳,侯迎,陈田.海南省居民福利指标体系构建及筛选方法选择[J].统计与决策,2012(3):35-38.
[19]范如国,张宏娟.民生福祉评价模型及增进策略——基于信度、结构效度分析和结构方程模型[J].经济管理,2012(9):161-168.
[20]陆万军,张彬斌.就业类型、社会福利与流动人口城市融入——来自微观数据的经验证据[J].经济学家,2018(8):34-41.
[21]孙三百,万广华.城市蔓延对居民福利的影响——对城市空间异质性的考察[J].经济学动态,2017(11):32-45.
[22]庇古.福利经济学[M].北京:华夏出版社,2007:56-78.
[23]关信平.当前中国社会政策的目标及总体福利水平分析[J].中国社会科学,2017(6):91-101.
[24]李雪莹.中国城镇居民福利水平评价及影响因素研究[D].西安:西北大学,2013:7,16.
[25]程艳.徐州市城市化与生态环境耦合协调发展研究[D].徐州:中国矿业大学,2014:45.
[26]王富喜,毛爱华,李赫龙,等.基于熵值法的山东省城镇化质量测度及空间差异分析[J].地理科学,2013,33(11):1323-1329.
[27]秦辉,王瑜炜.浙江省县域福利水平的时空变化[J].华东经济管理,2015,29(2):28-34.
[28]陈彦光.基于Moran统计量的空间自相关理论发展和方法改进[J].地理研究,2009,28(6):1449-1463.
[29]刘卫东,刘红光,范晓梅,等.地区间贸易流量的产业——空间模型构建与应用[J].地理学报,2012,67(2):147-156.
[30]吴磊,焦华富,叶雷,等.中国省际教育城镇化的时空特征及影响因素[J].地理科学,2018,38(1):58-66.
[31]胡宇娜,梅林,魏建国.基于GWR模型的中国区域旅行社业效率空间分异及动力机制分析[J].地理科学,2018,38(1):107-113.
[32]毕斗斗,方远平,谢蔓,等.中国省域服务业创新水平的时空演变及其动力机制——基于空间计量模型的实证研究[J].经济地理,2015,35(10):139-148.
[33]徐维祥,刘程军.产业集群创新与县域城镇化耦合协调的空间格局及驱动力——以浙江为实证[J].地理科学,2015,35(11):1347-1356.
[34]周春山,黄婉玲,刘扬.中国城市经济开放度时空演化及影响因素[J].地域研究与开发,2018,37(02):1-8.
[35]陈威,潘润秋,王心怡.中国省域对外开放度时空格局演化与驱动机制[J].地理与地理信息科学,2016,32(3):53-60.