达日地区近30年温度和降水变化特征及相关性分析
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摘要
达日地区位于青藏高原东南部,夏季受西南季风影响明显,属于高原大陆性气候,具有气温低、昼夜温差大、降雨少而集中等特点。本文通过分析根据青藏达日地区气象观测站近30年的气象资料,对达日地区气温和降水量的年际、季节变化特征、异常情况进行了分析,并利用SPSS软件对气温和降水的相关性进行了分析,得出:1)近30年来,达日地区平均气温呈升高的趋势,且增温速率有明显增高。四季的气温都呈现上升的趋势,各季节的倾向率都为正值,春季的上升趋势最小。冬季增暖的程度最为显著,其次是夏季,春秋季最弱,冬季增暖对达日地区增暖贡献最大;2)近30年年降水距平在1995年以前以负距平为主,1995年以后以正距平为主,2000年前后存在着明显的跃变。近30年来,降水量逐年波动增加,降水在季节上分布没有明显的变化,冬季降水的波动幅度较大,近30年达日地区降水呈现增加的趋势。3)在近30年的4月平均气温中1999和2007年显著偏高,其中1999年显著程度最为明显,10月平均气温异常全部为异常偏高,并且较4月明显增多。4)过去30年内出现2次异常多雨年份,为1995和2001年,比较分散且都是异常偏多,异常程度较小,10月多异常降水,4月异常降水年份较少,并且异常程度10月份较高,这代表着秋季异常降水多于春季,并且秋季降水异常年份的异常程度大于春季。5)达日地区近30年来,6月、7月、9月和10月气温和降水为正相关外,其余各月都为负相关。全年气温和降水相关性很高,通过了0.01水平的显著性检验。气温和降水相关性程度较高。
the day region is located in the southeast of the qinghai-tibet plateau, affected by southwest monsoon, the summer belongs to the plateau continental climate, low temperature, large temperature difference between day and night, less rainfall and concentrated, etc. Based on the analysis according to the Tibetan area meteorological observatory of day nearly 30 years of meteorological data, for daily air temperature and precipitation of annual, seasonal variation characteristics, analyzes the abnormal situation, and by using SPSS software to analysis the correlation of the temperature and precipitation, it is concluded that:(1) for nearly 30 years, up to date in the average temperature is rising trend, and the rate of warming has significantly increased. The temperature rising trends of the seasons, each season tendency rate are positive, the rising trend of minimum spring. The degree of the winter heating is the most significant, followed by summer, age season the weakest, the winter heating the largest contribution to the district heating for days;(2) nearly 30 annual precipitation anomaly before 1995 with negative anomaly is given priority to, mainly are analyzed after 1995, there is a obvious jump around 2000. For nearly 30 years, rainfall fluctuations increase year by year, precipitation had no obvious change on the seasonal distribution, winter precipitation fluctuation is bigger, nearly 30 years of days area precipitation showed increasing trend.(3) the average temperature in April in nearly 30 years had significantly higher in 1999 and 2007, including 1999 degree is most obvious, in October average temperature anomalies are all on the high side, and from April increased obviously.(4) the abnormal rainy year appears twice in the past 30 years, 1995 and 2001, are more fragmented and exceptions, the more the degree of abnormal small, October abnormal precipitation more, less abnormal precipitation year in April, and the degree of abnormal high in October, which represents the abnormal autumn rainfall than the spring, and the anomaly of autumn rainfall years to a greater extent than in spring.(5) the day region for nearly 30 years, in June, July, September and October, the temperature and precipitation is positively related to outside, the rest of the months is negative correlation. The temperature and precipitation throughout the year the correlation is very high, through the 0.01 level of significance test. The temperature and precipitation correlation degree is higher.
the day region is located in the southeast of the qinghai-tibet plateau, affected by southwest monsoon, the summer belongs to the plateau continental climate, low temperature, large temperature difference between day and night, less rainfall and concentrated, etc. Based on the analysis according to the Tibetan area meteorological observatory of day nearly 30 years of meteorological data, for daily air temperature and precipitation of annual, seasonal variation characteristics, analyzes the abnormal situation, and by using SPSS software to analysis the correlation of the temperature and precipitation, it is concluded that:(1) for nearly 30 years, up to date in the average temperature is rising trend, and the rate of warming has significantly increased. The temperature rising trends of the seasons, each season tendency rate are positive, the rising trend of minimum spring. The degree of the winter heating is the most significant, followed by summer, age season the weakest, the winter heating the largest contribution to the district heating for days;(2) nearly 30 annual precipitation anomaly before 1995 with negative anomaly is given priority to, mainly are analyzed after 1995, there is a obvious jump around 2000. For nearly 30 years, rainfall fluctuations increase year by year, precipitation had no obvious change on the seasonal distribution, winter precipitation fluctuation is bigger, nearly 30 years of days area precipitation showed increasing trend.(3) the average temperature in April in nearly 30 years had significantly higher in 1999 and 2007, including 1999 degree is most obvious, in October average temperature anomalies are all on the high side, and from April increased obviously.(4) the abnormal rainy year appears twice in the past 30 years, 1995 and 2001, are more fragmented and exceptions, the more the degree of abnormal small, October abnormal precipitation more, less abnormal precipitation year in April, and the degree of abnormal high in October, which represents the abnormal autumn rainfall than the spring, and the anomaly of autumn rainfall years to a greater extent than in spring.(5) the day region for nearly 30 years, in June, July, September and October, the temperature and precipitation is positively related to outside, the rest of the months is negative correlation. The temperature and precipitation throughout the year the correlation is very high, through the 0.01 level of significance test. The temperature and precipitation correlation degree is higher.
引文
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[2]李向应,秦大河,效存德等.近期气候变化研究的一些最新进展[J].科学通报,2011,56(36):3029-3040.
[3]张晶晶,陈爽,赵昕奕.近50年中国气温变化的区域差异及其与全球气候变化的联系[J].干旱区资源与环境,2006,(04):1-6.
[4]Houghton JT,Ding Y,Griggs DJ,et al.Climate Change 2001:The Scientific Basis Cambridge[J],The Press syndicate of Cambridge University,2001.3.
[5]Thomas RK,Philip DJ,Richard WK,et al.A New Perspective on Global Warming:Asymmetric trends of daily maximum and minimum temperature[J].Bulletin of American Meteorological Society,1993,74(6):1007-1023.
[6]高涛,谢立安.近50年来中国极端降水趋势与物理成因研究综述[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(5):577-589.
[7]钱维宏,符娇兰,张玮玮等.近40年中国平均气候与极值气候变化的概述[J].地球科学进展,2007,22(7):673-684.
[8]郑度,李炳元.青藏高原地理环境研究进展[J].地理科学,1999,19(4):295-302.
[9]莫申国,张百平,程维明等.青藏高原的主要环境效应[J].地理科学进展,2004,23(2):88-96.
[10]伏洋,张国胜,李凤霞等.青海高原气候变化的环境响应[J].干旱区研究,2009,26(2):267-276.