石漠化综合治理促进了当地经济发展吗?——基于广西县域面板数据的DID实证研究
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摘要
石漠化综合治理工程是中国重大的生态修复工程和民生工程,兼具生态修复与促进社会经济发展、改善民生的重要功能,其实施效果如何是值得关注的重大问题。本文从理论上分析了石漠化综合治理工程对县域经济发展的影响机理,并利用2006—2016年广西88个县域的面板数据,采用双重差分法(DID)估计了石漠化综合治理工程的实施对县域经济发展的政策效应。研究表明:(1)石漠化综合治理工程的实施对县域经济发展有显著持续的正向促进作用;(2)石漠化综合治理工程实施的时间越长,其对经济发展的推动作用越大;(3)经过稳健性检验后上述结论依然成立。本文研究结论肯定了石漠化综合治理一期工程的效果,对石漠化综合治理二期工程的持续开展及后续相关政策的制定具有重要的政策启示。
The Rocky Desertification Control Project(RDCP) has become a major ecological restoration and livelihood project in the karst areas of Southwest China, which could prevent soil erosion, restore ecological environment, promote social and economic development, and improve household's livelihood. The impact of the RDCP is a major issue worthy of attention. This study theoretically analyzed the influencing mechanism of the RDCP on the development of County economic and evaluated the RDCP's economic impact based on panel data collected from 88 counties of Guangxi province from 2006 to 2016, using the Difference-in-Difference(DID)method. We first estimated the average impact of the RDCP on county economic development.Then we evaluated the dynamic impact of the RDCP, using the panel fixed effect model. The results illustrate that RDCP has a sustainably positive and statistically significant impact on the county economic development. Regardless of whether other variables are controlled, the economic development level of the treat group is significantly higher than that of the control group.Furthermore, the longer the RDCP is implemented, the greater the impact is. It means that with the help of various favorable policy measures for the RDCP, the rocky desertification areas can continuously accumulate favorable factors for economic development and form a "cyclical accumulation. "With conducting the robustness test, we found that the results of the empirical analysis are reliable. The DID method can indeed give a reasonable estimate of the causal effects of the RDCP and county economic development. The results confirm the positive impact of the first phase of RDCP on the economic development. RDCP will have an important policy implication for the second phase of the RDCP and the establishment of relevant policies.
The Rocky Desertification Control Project(RDCP) has become a major ecological restoration and livelihood project in the karst areas of Southwest China, which could prevent soil erosion, restore ecological environment, promote social and economic development, and improve household's livelihood. The impact of the RDCP is a major issue worthy of attention. This study theoretically analyzed the influencing mechanism of the RDCP on the development of County economic and evaluated the RDCP's economic impact based on panel data collected from 88 counties of Guangxi province from 2006 to 2016, using the Difference-in-Difference(DID)method. We first estimated the average impact of the RDCP on county economic development.Then we evaluated the dynamic impact of the RDCP, using the panel fixed effect model. The results illustrate that RDCP has a sustainably positive and statistically significant impact on the county economic development. Regardless of whether other variables are controlled, the economic development level of the treat group is significantly higher than that of the control group.Furthermore, the longer the RDCP is implemented, the greater the impact is. It means that with the help of various favorable policy measures for the RDCP, the rocky desertification areas can continuously accumulate favorable factors for economic development and form a "cyclical accumulation. "With conducting the robustness test, we found that the results of the empirical analysis are reliable. The DID method can indeed give a reasonable estimate of the causal effects of the RDCP and county economic development. The results confirm the positive impact of the first phase of RDCP on the economic development. RDCP will have an important policy implication for the second phase of the RDCP and the establishment of relevant policies.
引文
[1]国家发展和改革委员会.岩溶地区石漠化综合治理规划大纲(2006-2015)[EB/OL].(2016-04-26)[2018-05-28].https://max/book118/com/html/2016/1001/56502787/shtm.[National development and Reform Commission.Planning Framework of the Rocky Desertification Control in Karst Region(2006-2015)[EB/OL].(2016-04-26)[2018-05-28].https://max/book118/com/html/2016/1001/56502787/shtm.]
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[4]许尔琪.基于地理加权回归的石漠化影响因子分布研究[J].资源科学,2017,39(10):1975-1988.[Xu E Q.Spatial variation in drivers of karst rocky desertification based on geographically weighted regression model[J].Resources Science,2017,39(10):1975-1988.]
[5]宋同清,彭晚霞,杜虎,等.中国西南喀斯特石漠化时空演变特征、发生机制与调控对策[J].生态学报,2014,34(18):5328-5341.[Song T Q,Peng W X,Du H,et al.Occurrence,spatial-temporal dynamics and regulation strategies of karst rocky desertification in southwest China[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2014,34(18):5328-5341.]
[6]蒋忠诚,李先琨,覃小群,等.论岩溶峰丛洼地石漠化的综合治理技术-以广西平果果化示范区为例[J].中国岩溶,2008,27(1):50-55.[Jiang Z C,Li X K,Qin X Q,et al.Comprehensive improving technique to rocky desertification in karst peak-cluster depression:a case study at Guohua Ecological Experimental Area,Pingguo,Guangxi[J].Carsologica Sinica,2008,27(1):50-55.]
[7]肖华,熊康宁,张浩,等.喀斯特石漠化治理模式研究进展[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,163(S1):330-334.[Xiao H,Xiong K N,Zhang H,et al.Research progress for karst rocky desertification control models[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,163(S1):330-334.]
[8]陈洪松,岳跃民,王克林.西南喀斯特地区石漠化综合治理:成效、问题与对策[J].中国岩溶,2018,(1):37-42.[Chen H S,Yue Y M,Wang K L.Comprehensive control on rocky desertification in karst regions of southwest China:achievements,problems,and countermeasures[J].Carsologica Sinica,2018,(1):37-42.]
[9]熊平生,袁道先,谢世友.我国南方岩溶山区石漠化基本问题研究进展[J].中国岩溶,2010,29(4):355-362.[Xiong P S,Yuan D X,Xie S Y.Progress of research on rocky desertification in South China Karst Mountain[J].Carsologica Sinica,2010,29(4):355-362.]
[10]滕建珍,苏维词,廖风林.贵州北盘江镇喀斯特峡谷石漠化地区生态经济治理模式及效益分析[J].中国水土保持科学,2004,2(3):70-74.[Teng J Z,Su W C,Liao F L.Analysis of eco-economic control models and benefits of rocky desertification region in Huajiang Karst Gorge in Guizhou[J].Science of Soil and Water Conservation,2004,2(3):70-74.]
[11]颜萍,熊康宁,檀迪,等.喀斯特石漠化治理不同水土保持模式的生态效应研究[J].贵州师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,34(1):1-7.[Yan P,Xiong K N,Tan D,et al.Ecological effects of different soil and water conservation modes in Karst rocky desertification control[J].Journal of Guizhou Normal University(Natural Sciences),2016,34(1):1-7.]
[12]程富东,张曦,戴全厚,等.石漠化治理区社会经济效益定量评价-以贵州省六枝特区为例[J].中国水土保持科学,2013,11(3):24-28.[Cheng F D,Zhang X,Dai Q H,et al.Quantitative evaluation of social and economic benefits in the rocky desertification management district:a case study in Liuzhi special region,Guizhou Province[J].Science of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,11(3):24-28.]
[13]李昂,王云琦,张会兰,等.广西石漠化地区水土保持效应评价指标体系研究[J].北京林业大学学报,2016,38(11):67-78.[Li A,Wang Y Q,Zhang H L,et al.Research on evaluation index system of soil and water conservation effect of rocky desertification region in Guangxi of southern China[J].Journal of Beijing Forestry20191University,2016,38(11):67-78.]
[14]吴鹏,朱军,崔迎春,等.喀斯特地区石漠化综合治理生态效益指标体系构建及评价-以杠寨小流域为例[J].中南林业科技大学学报,2014,(10):95-101.[Wu P,Zhu J,Cui Y C,et al.Construction of eco-efficiency index system for preventing and controlling rocky desertification in Gangzhai karst small watershed,Kaiyang,Guizhou and system evaluation[J].Journal of Central South University of Forestry&Technology,2014,(10):95-101.]
[15]杨小青,胡宝清,曹少英.喀斯特山区石漠化生态治理效益模糊综合评价-以广西都安瑶族自治县为例[J].生态与农村环境学报,2008,24(2):22-26.[Yang X Q,Hu B Q,Cao S Y.Analysis of effect of ecological management of rocky desertification in Karst regions based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model:a case study of Du'an county in Guangxi[J].Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2008,24(2):22-26.]
[16]熊强辉,杜雪莲.喀斯特石漠化综合治理及其效益评价研究进展[J].广东农业科学,2015,42(10):139-145.[Xiong Q H,Du XL.Advances in comprehensive management of Karst rocky desertification and its benefit evaluation[J].Guangdong Agricultural Sciences,2015,42(10):139-145.]
[17]曹洪华,王荣成,李琳.基于DID模型的洱海流域生态农业政策效应研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(10):157-162.[Cao H H,Wang R C,Li L.Research on the policy effects of ecological agriculture in Er Hai based on DID Model[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,24(10):157-162.]
[18]刘瑞明,赵仁杰.国家高新区推动了地区经济发展吗?基于双重差分方法的验证[J].管理世界,2015,(8):30-38.[Liu R M,Zhao R J.Does the national high-tech zone promote regional economic development?A verification based on differences-in-differences method[J].Management World,2015,(8):30-38.]
[19]黄志平.国家级贫困县的设立推动了当地经济发展吗?基于PSM-DID方法的实证研究[J].中国农村经济,2018,(5):98-111.[Huang Z P.Does the establishment of national povertystricken counties promote local economic development?An empirical analysis based on PSM-DID methods[J].China Rural Economic,2018,(5):98-111.]
[20]但新球,白建华,吴协保,等.石漠化综合治理二期工程总体思路研究[J].中南林业调查规划,2015,34(3):62-66.[Dan X Q,Bai J H,Wu X B,et al.Research on the general idea of the second phase of the rocky desertification comprehensive treatment project[J].Central South Forest Inventory and Planning,2015,34(3):62-66.]
[21]吴协保.继续推进岩溶地区石漠化综合治理二期工程的现实意义[J].中国岩溶,2016,35(5):469-475.[Wu X B.Realistic significance of carrying forward the project phaseⅡfor comprehensive treatment of rocky desertification in China[J].Carsologica Sinica,2016,35(5):469-475.]
[22]蒋忠诚,李先琨,胡宝清,等.广西岩溶山区石漠化及其综合治理研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2011.[Jiang Z C,Li X K,Hu BQ,et al.Study on Rocky Desertification and Its Comprehensive Management in Karst Mountainous Areas of Guangxi[M].Beijing:Science Press,2011.]
[23]广西壮族自治区统计局.广西统计年鉴(2001-2017)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2001-2017.[Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Bureau of Statistics.Guangxi Statistical Yearbook(2001-2017)[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2001-2017.]
[24]郑新业,王晗,赵益卓.“省直管县”能促进经济增长吗?双重差分方法[J].管理世界,2011,(8):34-44.[Zheng X Y,Wang H,Zhao Y Z.Can the reform of“county directly administrated by province”promote economic growth?A difference-in-differences estimation[J].Management World,2011,(8):34-44.]
[25]周黎安,陈烨.中国农村税费改革的政策效果:基于双重差分模型的估计[J].经济研究,2005,(8):44-53.[Zhou L A,Chen Y.The policy effect of tax-and-fees reforms in rural China:a difference-in-differences estimation[J].Economic Research Journal,2005,(8):44-53.]
[2]李阳兵,王世杰,容丽.关于喀斯特石漠和石漠化概念的讨论[J].中国沙漠,2004,24(6):689-695.[Li Y B,Wang S J,Rong L.Discuss on concepts of rock desertification and rock desert in karst region[J].Journal of Desert Research,2004,24(6):689-695.]
[3]苏维词.喀斯特土地石漠化类型划分及其生态治理模式探讨[J].中国土地科学,2008,22(4):32-37.[Su W C.Types division of karst rocky desertification and a tentative survey of its ecological treatment model[J].China Land Science,2008,22(4):32-37.]
[4]许尔琪.基于地理加权回归的石漠化影响因子分布研究[J].资源科学,2017,39(10):1975-1988.[Xu E Q.Spatial variation in drivers of karst rocky desertification based on geographically weighted regression model[J].Resources Science,2017,39(10):1975-1988.]
[5]宋同清,彭晚霞,杜虎,等.中国西南喀斯特石漠化时空演变特征、发生机制与调控对策[J].生态学报,2014,34(18):5328-5341.[Song T Q,Peng W X,Du H,et al.Occurrence,spatial-temporal dynamics and regulation strategies of karst rocky desertification in southwest China[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2014,34(18):5328-5341.]
[6]蒋忠诚,李先琨,覃小群,等.论岩溶峰丛洼地石漠化的综合治理技术-以广西平果果化示范区为例[J].中国岩溶,2008,27(1):50-55.[Jiang Z C,Li X K,Qin X Q,et al.Comprehensive improving technique to rocky desertification in karst peak-cluster depression:a case study at Guohua Ecological Experimental Area,Pingguo,Guangxi[J].Carsologica Sinica,2008,27(1):50-55.]
[7]肖华,熊康宁,张浩,等.喀斯特石漠化治理模式研究进展[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,163(S1):330-334.[Xiao H,Xiong K N,Zhang H,et al.Research progress for karst rocky desertification control models[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,163(S1):330-334.]
[8]陈洪松,岳跃民,王克林.西南喀斯特地区石漠化综合治理:成效、问题与对策[J].中国岩溶,2018,(1):37-42.[Chen H S,Yue Y M,Wang K L.Comprehensive control on rocky desertification in karst regions of southwest China:achievements,problems,and countermeasures[J].Carsologica Sinica,2018,(1):37-42.]
[9]熊平生,袁道先,谢世友.我国南方岩溶山区石漠化基本问题研究进展[J].中国岩溶,2010,29(4):355-362.[Xiong P S,Yuan D X,Xie S Y.Progress of research on rocky desertification in South China Karst Mountain[J].Carsologica Sinica,2010,29(4):355-362.]
[10]滕建珍,苏维词,廖风林.贵州北盘江镇喀斯特峡谷石漠化地区生态经济治理模式及效益分析[J].中国水土保持科学,2004,2(3):70-74.[Teng J Z,Su W C,Liao F L.Analysis of eco-economic control models and benefits of rocky desertification region in Huajiang Karst Gorge in Guizhou[J].Science of Soil and Water Conservation,2004,2(3):70-74.]
[11]颜萍,熊康宁,檀迪,等.喀斯特石漠化治理不同水土保持模式的生态效应研究[J].贵州师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,34(1):1-7.[Yan P,Xiong K N,Tan D,et al.Ecological effects of different soil and water conservation modes in Karst rocky desertification control[J].Journal of Guizhou Normal University(Natural Sciences),2016,34(1):1-7.]
[12]程富东,张曦,戴全厚,等.石漠化治理区社会经济效益定量评价-以贵州省六枝特区为例[J].中国水土保持科学,2013,11(3):24-28.[Cheng F D,Zhang X,Dai Q H,et al.Quantitative evaluation of social and economic benefits in the rocky desertification management district:a case study in Liuzhi special region,Guizhou Province[J].Science of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,11(3):24-28.]
[13]李昂,王云琦,张会兰,等.广西石漠化地区水土保持效应评价指标体系研究[J].北京林业大学学报,2016,38(11):67-78.[Li A,Wang Y Q,Zhang H L,et al.Research on evaluation index system of soil and water conservation effect of rocky desertification region in Guangxi of southern China[J].Journal of Beijing Forestry20191University,2016,38(11):67-78.]
[14]吴鹏,朱军,崔迎春,等.喀斯特地区石漠化综合治理生态效益指标体系构建及评价-以杠寨小流域为例[J].中南林业科技大学学报,2014,(10):95-101.[Wu P,Zhu J,Cui Y C,et al.Construction of eco-efficiency index system for preventing and controlling rocky desertification in Gangzhai karst small watershed,Kaiyang,Guizhou and system evaluation[J].Journal of Central South University of Forestry&Technology,2014,(10):95-101.]
[15]杨小青,胡宝清,曹少英.喀斯特山区石漠化生态治理效益模糊综合评价-以广西都安瑶族自治县为例[J].生态与农村环境学报,2008,24(2):22-26.[Yang X Q,Hu B Q,Cao S Y.Analysis of effect of ecological management of rocky desertification in Karst regions based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model:a case study of Du'an county in Guangxi[J].Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2008,24(2):22-26.]
[16]熊强辉,杜雪莲.喀斯特石漠化综合治理及其效益评价研究进展[J].广东农业科学,2015,42(10):139-145.[Xiong Q H,Du XL.Advances in comprehensive management of Karst rocky desertification and its benefit evaluation[J].Guangdong Agricultural Sciences,2015,42(10):139-145.]
[17]曹洪华,王荣成,李琳.基于DID模型的洱海流域生态农业政策效应研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(10):157-162.[Cao H H,Wang R C,Li L.Research on the policy effects of ecological agriculture in Er Hai based on DID Model[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,24(10):157-162.]
[18]刘瑞明,赵仁杰.国家高新区推动了地区经济发展吗?基于双重差分方法的验证[J].管理世界,2015,(8):30-38.[Liu R M,Zhao R J.Does the national high-tech zone promote regional economic development?A verification based on differences-in-differences method[J].Management World,2015,(8):30-38.]
[19]黄志平.国家级贫困县的设立推动了当地经济发展吗?基于PSM-DID方法的实证研究[J].中国农村经济,2018,(5):98-111.[Huang Z P.Does the establishment of national povertystricken counties promote local economic development?An empirical analysis based on PSM-DID methods[J].China Rural Economic,2018,(5):98-111.]
[20]但新球,白建华,吴协保,等.石漠化综合治理二期工程总体思路研究[J].中南林业调查规划,2015,34(3):62-66.[Dan X Q,Bai J H,Wu X B,et al.Research on the general idea of the second phase of the rocky desertification comprehensive treatment project[J].Central South Forest Inventory and Planning,2015,34(3):62-66.]
[21]吴协保.继续推进岩溶地区石漠化综合治理二期工程的现实意义[J].中国岩溶,2016,35(5):469-475.[Wu X B.Realistic significance of carrying forward the project phaseⅡfor comprehensive treatment of rocky desertification in China[J].Carsologica Sinica,2016,35(5):469-475.]
[22]蒋忠诚,李先琨,胡宝清,等.广西岩溶山区石漠化及其综合治理研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2011.[Jiang Z C,Li X K,Hu BQ,et al.Study on Rocky Desertification and Its Comprehensive Management in Karst Mountainous Areas of Guangxi[M].Beijing:Science Press,2011.]
[23]广西壮族自治区统计局.广西统计年鉴(2001-2017)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2001-2017.[Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Bureau of Statistics.Guangxi Statistical Yearbook(2001-2017)[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2001-2017.]
[24]郑新业,王晗,赵益卓.“省直管县”能促进经济增长吗?双重差分方法[J].管理世界,2011,(8):34-44.[Zheng X Y,Wang H,Zhao Y Z.Can the reform of“county directly administrated by province”promote economic growth?A difference-in-differences estimation[J].Management World,2011,(8):34-44.]
[25]周黎安,陈烨.中国农村税费改革的政策效果:基于双重差分模型的估计[J].经济研究,2005,(8):44-53.[Zhou L A,Chen Y.The policy effect of tax-and-fees reforms in rural China:a difference-in-differences estimation[J].Economic Research Journal,2005,(8):44-53.]