大型客机零部件适航风险的贝叶斯网络推理研究
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摘要
研究大型客机零部件适航风险的推理问题.基于适航取证中法规对飞机零部件适航的规定,研究了大型客机零部件适航的风险因素,建立了适航风险评价指标体系;构建了大型客机零部件适航风险推理的贝叶斯模型,采用区间数表征不确定的条件概率,结合云模型和模糊综合评价法确定先验概率;案例对某零部件适航的系统风险进行预测诊断.
The problem of determining the airworthiness risk of a large airliner is studied.starting from the practice of airworthiness certification abroad, this paper analyzes the risk factors of airworthiness for large aircraft components in view of the airworthiness regulation of aircraft components and establishes the airworthiness risk evaluation index system.Then, a Bayesian model of airworthiness risk for large aircraft components is constructed, and the prior probability is quantitatively determined by combining the cloud model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The interval numbers are introduced to determine the conditional probability. Finally, case analysis and simulation are carried out to predict the system risk of airworthiness for large aircraft components and to diagnose the status of the parts risks.
The problem of determining the airworthiness risk of a large airliner is studied.starting from the practice of airworthiness certification abroad, this paper analyzes the risk factors of airworthiness for large aircraft components in view of the airworthiness regulation of aircraft components and establishes the airworthiness risk evaluation index system.Then, a Bayesian model of airworthiness risk for large aircraft components is constructed, and the prior probability is quantitatively determined by combining the cloud model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The interval numbers are introduced to determine the conditional probability. Finally, case analysis and simulation are carried out to predict the system risk of airworthiness for large aircraft components and to diagnose the status of the parts risks.
引文
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[11]曹颖赛,刘思峰,方志耕等.多态系统可靠性分析广义灰色贝叶斯网络模型[J].系统工程与电子技术,2018,40(01):231-237.
[12]方志耕.灰色博弈理论及其经济应用研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2007:(13-30).
[2]高艳蕾,周燕佩.持续适航阶段民用航空发动机故障风险分析与评估[J].航空发动机,2010,36(3):50-53.
[3]丁水汀,张弓,蔚夺魁等.航空发动机适航概率风险评估方法研究综述[J].航空动力学报,2011,26(7):1441-1451.
[4]陆嘉华,羌晓青,滕金芳等.鸟撞损伤风扇气动性能的适航符合性研究[J].上海交通大学学报,2017,51(08):932-938.
[5]张婷.大型客机项目的环境分析和风险管理[J].项目管理技术,2012,10(1):79-84.
[6]邱菀华.国产首架大型客机研制项目的风险管理研究[J].中国工程科学,2014,16(10):31-38.
[7]中国民用航空局政策法规司.欧盟民航业法律法规手册[M].北京:中国民航出版社,2012.
[8]王永攀,杨江平,邓翔等.基于贝叶斯网络的复杂装备维修质量评价模型[J].系统工程与电子技术,2017,39(03):569-576.
[9]周国华,彭波.基于贝叶斯网络的建设项目质量管理风险因素分析一以京沪高速铁路建设项目为例[J].中国软科学,2009,24(09):99-106.
[10]何清华,杨德磊,罗岚等.基于贝叶斯网络的大型复杂工程项目群进度风险分析[J].软科学,2016,30(04):120-126+139.
[11]曹颖赛,刘思峰,方志耕等.多态系统可靠性分析广义灰色贝叶斯网络模型[J].系统工程与电子技术,2018,40(01):231-237.
[12]方志耕.灰色博弈理论及其经济应用研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2007:(13-30).