1951-2016年长江荆南三口地区旱涝演变与急转特征分析
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摘要
根据荆南三口地区22个气象站点1951—2016年月降水资料,采用标准化降水指数(SPI)及夏季长周期旱涝急转指数(LDFAI),辅以EOF分析、小波分析、M-K检验等相关分析方法,分析荆南三口地区66年旱涝的变化特征。结果表明:(1)旱涝年际变化较大,20世纪50年代前涝后旱、60—70年代整体干旱、80年代旱涝交替、90年代洪涝、21世纪前涝后旱,且四季均可发生旱涝事件。(2)空间尺度可分为3个区域类型,东南部(湿润区)、中部(降水均匀区)、西北部(偏干区),且季节空间分布上存在较大差异,西北部的五峰、宜昌、荆州等地四季干旱较多,中部的安乡、南县、华容等地四季洪涝较多。(3)年与四季多以5年、10年周期为主,并具有30~35年的长周期。(4)旱涝急转指数在1981年和2015年发生显著变化,而旱涝强度在1972年和2014年发生显著突变。(5)宜昌、石门、澧县等夏季多为旱转涝;五峰、宁乡、安乡、华容、常德等地夏季多为涝转旱。
Based on the monthly precipitation data of 22 meteorological stations in three outlets region along Jingjiang reaches of Yangtze River from 1951 to 2016,the characteristics of drought-flood variation during 66 years were analyzed by using the standardized precipitation index(SPI),long cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation index(LDFAI),EOF(empirical orthogonal function)analysis,Morlet wavelet analysis and M-K(Mann-Kendall)test.Results showed that:(1)There were large inter-annual variations.Specifically,drought after flood in 1950 s,entire drought in 1960 sand 1970 s,alternation of drought and flood in 1980 s,entire flood in 1990 s,drought after flood in 2000 s,and even-distributed drought-flood in any seasons.(2)Spatially,there were three types of drought-flood in the area,i.e.the flood-prone southeastern zone,the central zone with normal precipitation,and the drought-prone northwest zone,which had distinct seasonal distribution patterns of drought-flood.(3)Frequencies of some 5 and 10 years could be conceived,and stable frequencies of 30~35 years were significant.(4)The LDFAI index was changed in 1981 and 2015,while the intensity changed in 1972 and 2014.(5)In summer,the precipitation in Yichang,Shimen and Lixian changed from drought to flood,while the trends were opposite in and that i Wufeng,Ningxiang,Anxiang,Huarong and Changde.
Based on the monthly precipitation data of 22 meteorological stations in three outlets region along Jingjiang reaches of Yangtze River from 1951 to 2016,the characteristics of drought-flood variation during 66 years were analyzed by using the standardized precipitation index(SPI),long cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation index(LDFAI),EOF(empirical orthogonal function)analysis,Morlet wavelet analysis and M-K(Mann-Kendall)test.Results showed that:(1)There were large inter-annual variations.Specifically,drought after flood in 1950 s,entire drought in 1960 sand 1970 s,alternation of drought and flood in 1980 s,entire flood in 1990 s,drought after flood in 2000 s,and even-distributed drought-flood in any seasons.(2)Spatially,there were three types of drought-flood in the area,i.e.the flood-prone southeastern zone,the central zone with normal precipitation,and the drought-prone northwest zone,which had distinct seasonal distribution patterns of drought-flood.(3)Frequencies of some 5 and 10 years could be conceived,and stable frequencies of 30~35 years were significant.(4)The LDFAI index was changed in 1981 and 2015,while the intensity changed in 1972 and 2014.(5)In summer,the precipitation in Yichang,Shimen and Lixian changed from drought to flood,while the trends were opposite in and that i Wufeng,Ningxiang,Anxiang,Huarong and Changde.
引文
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[17]代稳,吕殿青,王金凤,等.基于变权灰色关联法的长江荆南三口地区水资源短缺程度分析[J].长江科学院院报,2017,34(6):17-23.
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[24]Wu Z,Li J,He J,et al.The occurrence of droughts and floods during the normal summer monsoons in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2006,33(15),L05813.doi:10.1029/2005GL024487.
[25]Wu Z,Li J,He J,et al.Large-scale atmospheric singularities and the summer long-cycle droughts-floods abrupt alternation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2006,51(16):2027-2034.
[26]温克刚,谢璞.中国气象灾害大典(湖南卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2005.
[27]翟禄新,冯起.基于SPI的西北气候干事变化[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(5):847-857.
[28]魏义长,王纪军,张芳,等.经验正交函数与地统计相结合分析降水时空变异[J].灌溉排水学报,2010,29(4):105-109.
[2]Coumou D,Robinson A.Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes[J].Environmental Research Letters,2013,8:1-6.
[3]Groisman P Y,Karl T R,Easterling D R,et al.Changes in the probability of heavy precipitation:Important indicators of climatic chang climatic change[J].1999,42(1):243-283.
[4]Yves T,Wafae B,Fatima D.Climate change impacts on extreme precipitation in Morocco[J].Global and Planetary Change,2012(82/83):104-114.
[5]吴吉东,傅宇,张洁,等.1949—2013年中国气象灾害灾情变化趋势分析[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(9):1520-1530.
[6]王米雪,延军平,李双双.1960—2013年中国东南沿海地区旱涝时空变化特征及其趋势分析[J].资源科学,2014,36(11):2307-2315.
[7]何艳虎,陈晓宏,林凯荣,等.东江流域近50年旱涝时空演变特征[J].地理科学,2014,34(11):1391-1398.
[8]杨志勇,袁喆,严登华,等.黄淮海流域旱涝时空分布及组合特性[J].水科学进展,2013,24(5):617-625.
[9]杨金虎,张强,王劲松,等.近60年来西南地区旱涝变化及极端和持续性特征认识[J].地理科学,2015,35(10):1333-1340.
[10]李景保,钟一苇,周永强,等,三峡水库运行对洞庭湖北部地区水资源开发利用的影响[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(9):1583-1593.
[11]闪丽洁,张利平,陈心池,等.长江中下游流域旱涝急转时空演变特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(12):2100-2107.
[12]王婷,章新平,黎祖贤,等.近52年来洞庭湖流域气象干旱的时空分布特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(3):514-522.
[13]程智,丁小俊,徐敏,等.长江中下游地区典型旱涝急转气候特征研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(增刊2):115-120.
[14]易彬,曾小凡,赵娜,等.基于标准化降水蒸散指数的长江流域旱涝情势演变[J].南水北调与水利科技,2018,16(1):1-6.
[15]李景保,李雅婷,蒋文杰.三峡水库运行对长江荆南三口生态系统健康的影响[J].湖南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,39(6):15-19,54.
[16]于丹丹,杨波,李景保,等.近61年来长江荆南三口水系结构演变特征及其驱动因素分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(4):13-20.
[17]代稳,吕殿青,王金凤,等.基于变权灰色关联法的长江荆南三口地区水资源短缺程度分析[J].长江科学院院报,2017,34(6):17-23.
[18]McKee T B,Doesken N J,Kleist J.The relationship of drought frequency and duration of time scales[C]//Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology.American Meteorological Society.Anaheim California,1993.
[19]Shukla S,Wood A W.Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35(2):1-7.
[20]中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局.中国国家标准化管理委员会.气象干旱等级(GB/T 20481—2006)[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2006.
[21]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:17-18.
[22]Torrence C,Compo G P.A practical guide to wavelet analysis[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorogical Society,1998,79:6-78.
[23]何慧,廖雪萍,陆虹,等.华南地区1961—2014年夏季长周期旱涝急转特征[J].地理学报,2016,71(1):130-141.
[24]Wu Z,Li J,He J,et al.The occurrence of droughts and floods during the normal summer monsoons in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2006,33(15),L05813.doi:10.1029/2005GL024487.
[25]Wu Z,Li J,He J,et al.Large-scale atmospheric singularities and the summer long-cycle droughts-floods abrupt alternation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2006,51(16):2027-2034.
[26]温克刚,谢璞.中国气象灾害大典(湖南卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2005.
[27]翟禄新,冯起.基于SPI的西北气候干事变化[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(5):847-857.
[28]魏义长,王纪军,张芳,等.经验正交函数与地统计相结合分析降水时空变异[J].灌溉排水学报,2010,29(4):105-109.