基于静态程度的荆南三口地区水资源短缺变化分析
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摘要
为了探究相对丰水地区水资源短缺程度,构建水资源短缺程度评价指标体系,采用突变级数法对长江荆南三口地区水资源短缺静态程度进行评价,以静态程度为基础,信息集结视角和变化速度激励为手段,提出融合变化速度状态测度与变化速度趋势测度的水资源短缺程度动态综合评价模型。结果表明,该地区2003年~2015年水资源短缺静态程度不严重,均为基本不缺水类型,但区域内存在差异;耦合水资源短缺程度变化速度状态测度与变化速度趋势测度的动态综合评价模型能够表征区域出现水资源短缺风险的概率及揭示短缺程度变化的速度原因。
In order to explore the degree of water resources shortage in relatively abundant water area, the evaluation index system of water resources shortage is established, and the static degree of water resources shortage in Three Outlets of Southern Jingjiang River is evaluated by using catastrophe progression method. Based on static evaluation results and taking the information aggregation angle of view and the change of speed as means, a model of dynamic comprehensive evaluation of water resources shortage is proposed, which couples the state and trend of changing speed together. The results show that:( a) the static degree of water resources shortage is not serious, but there are some differences in the area; and( b) the dynamic comprehensive evaluation model can characterize the probability of regional water shortage risk and the reason of shortage degree change.
In order to explore the degree of water resources shortage in relatively abundant water area, the evaluation index system of water resources shortage is established, and the static degree of water resources shortage in Three Outlets of Southern Jingjiang River is evaluated by using catastrophe progression method. Based on static evaluation results and taking the information aggregation angle of view and the change of speed as means, a model of dynamic comprehensive evaluation of water resources shortage is proposed, which couples the state and trend of changing speed together. The results show that:( a) the static degree of water resources shortage is not serious, but there are some differences in the area; and( b) the dynamic comprehensive evaluation model can characterize the probability of regional water shortage risk and the reason of shortage degree change.
引文
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[13]王崴,许新宜,王红瑞,等.基于PSR与DCE综合模型的水资源短缺程度及变化趋势分析——以北京市为例[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(10):1725-1734.
[14]代稳,张美竹,秦趣.基于主成分分析和熵权的六盘水水资源安全演变[J].节水灌溉,2013(7):45-48,52.
[15]李景保,周永强,欧朝敏,等.洞庭湖与长江水体交换能力演变及对三峡水库运行的响应[J].地理学报,2013,68(1):108-117.
[16]王晓青.中国水资源短缺地域差异研究[J].自然资源学报,2001,16(6):516-520.
[17]覃红燕,邹冬生,李峰.近50余年荆江三口水沙变化特征及驱动力分析[J].泥沙研究,2013(3):27-33.
[18]谢永宏,李峰,陈心胜,等.荆江三口入洞庭湖水沙演变及成因分析[J].农业现代化研究,2012,33(2):203-206.
[19]代稳,吕殿青,李景保,等.气候变化和人类活动对长江中游径流量变化影响分析[J].冰川冻土,2016,38(2):488-497.
[2]方春明,胡春宏,陈绪坚.三峡水库运用对荆江三口分流及洞庭湖的影响[J].水利学报,2014,45(1):36-41.
[3]李景保,钟一苇,周永强,等.三峡水库运行对洞庭湖北部地区水资源开发利用的影响[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(9):1583-1593.
[4]THOM R.Structural stability and morphogenesis[M].Benjamin:Readingmass,1975.
[5]DU X F.The catastrophe data model of multiple target evaluation decision-Sudden change progression theory[J].Technology Management Consulting,1989(12):23-28.
[6]凌复华.突变理论的原理和应用[M].上海:上海交通大学出版社,1997.
[7]王红旗,侯泽青,秦成.基于突变理论的泉州市水资源安全预警[J].南水北调与水利科技,2012,10(5):1-6.
[8]吴颖超,王震,曹磊,等.基于突变级数法的徐州市近10年水环境承载力评价[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(2):231-235.
[9]任珩,赵成章,安丽涓.基于突变级数法的民勤绿洲水资源管理政策绩效评价[J].资源科学,2014,36(5):922-928.
[10]陈伟,杨早立,周文,等.基于突变级数的知识密集型制造业技术创新能力动态综合评价——变化速度特征的视角[J].运筹与管理,2015,24(1):191-201.
[11]刘微微,石春生,赵圣斌.具有速度特征的动态综合评价模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(3):705-710.
[12]杨超,黄达,张永兴,等.基于监测量值变化速度特征的围岩稳定动态综合评判模型[J].现代隧道技术,2014,51(4):53-57,66.
[13]王崴,许新宜,王红瑞,等.基于PSR与DCE综合模型的水资源短缺程度及变化趋势分析——以北京市为例[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(10):1725-1734.
[14]代稳,张美竹,秦趣.基于主成分分析和熵权的六盘水水资源安全演变[J].节水灌溉,2013(7):45-48,52.
[15]李景保,周永强,欧朝敏,等.洞庭湖与长江水体交换能力演变及对三峡水库运行的响应[J].地理学报,2013,68(1):108-117.
[16]王晓青.中国水资源短缺地域差异研究[J].自然资源学报,2001,16(6):516-520.
[17]覃红燕,邹冬生,李峰.近50余年荆江三口水沙变化特征及驱动力分析[J].泥沙研究,2013(3):27-33.
[18]谢永宏,李峰,陈心胜,等.荆江三口入洞庭湖水沙演变及成因分析[J].农业现代化研究,2012,33(2):203-206.
[19]代稳,吕殿青,李景保,等.气候变化和人类活动对长江中游径流量变化影响分析[J].冰川冻土,2016,38(2):488-497.