三峡水库运行后荆南三口地区水资源安全状态及归因分析
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摘要
论文基于驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应(DPSIR)概念模型,建立荆南三口地区水资源安全评价指标体系,运用熵权模糊综合评价法评判该地区2000—2015年的水资源安全状态且以Ⅰ～Ⅴ等级来表征水资源安全由弱到强的状态,并运用因子分析法分析水资源安全状态变化的动因。结果表明:在2000—2015年间三口地区整体水资源安全的综合评价结果以Ⅲ等级占主导,为整体评价结果的45.83%,尚处在中间水平,并在时空上呈现出明显的阶段性变化:1)从时间上看,华容县水资源安全状态从2000年的Ⅱ等级上升到2015年的Ⅴ等级,其水资源安全隶属度整体上由低等级向高等级过渡;而安乡县水资源安全状态在2000—2002年处于Ⅳ～Ⅴ等级,三峡水库运行后下降到Ⅲ等级,且在各个等级上其水资源的安全隶属度变化幅度小,高等级增长缓慢;南县水资源安全状态在此期间波动幅度较大,2000—2002年从Ⅲ等级下降到Ⅱ等级,2003年后又缓慢上升到Ⅲ等级,但在2010后其水资源安全状态从Ⅱ等级下降到Ⅰ等级,并在2011—2013年连续3 a处于Ⅰ等级状态,其水资源安全隶属度在三峡水库运行后波动较大,主要向低等级方向移动。2)从空间上看,三峡水库运行前荆南三口地区水资源安全状态由高到低排序为安乡县>南县>华容县,三峡水库运行初期水资源安全状态的高低排序为安乡县>华容县>南县;试验性运行期为华容县>安乡县>南县。3)人类经济活动与供水能力是影响三口地区水资源安全的主要贡献因子,方差贡献率分别为26.758%与25.587%;而气候与人口因素为次要贡献因子,方差贡献率分别为16.240%与15.469%。
Based on the concept of driving-force-pressure-state-impact-response(DPSIR)model, an evaluation index system for water resources safety in the three outlets of southern Jingjiang River was established, and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on entropy weight is carried out on water security status in this region during 2000-2015. Based on the factor analysis method, the changes of water security status in the region was analyzed. The results showed that: during the period 2000-2015, the overall water resources security in the three outlets was dominated by the Grade Ⅲ, accounting for 45.83%, which was still in the middle level. Water resources security showed a significant spatial and temporal variations. 1)From the perspective of time, water security status in Huarong County increased from Grade Ⅱin 2000 to Grade Ⅴ in 2015, and the degree of membership to high levels became higher and to low levels became lower in general; water security status in Anxiang were Grade Ⅳ-Ⅴ during2000-2002 and dropped to Grade Ⅲ after the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir, but the change of membership degree to each level was small, and the growth of membership degree to high levels was slow. During this period, water security status in Nanxian County fluctuated most intensely. It dropped from Grade Ⅲ to Grade Ⅱ during 2000-2002 and slowly rose to Grade Ⅲ again after 2003. However, after 2010, its state of water resources safety fell from Grade Ⅱ to Grade Ⅰ and remained at Grade Ⅰ for three consecutive years during 2011-2013.After the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir, the water resources security degree in Nanxian County fluctuated greatly and mainly moved from high level to low level. 2) From the perspective of space, before the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir, water security status in the three outlets ranked from high to low was Anxiang, Nanxian and Huarong. In the initial operation period, the order was Anxiang, Huarong and Nanxian. In the trial operation period, it was Huarong, Anxiang and Nanxian. 3) Human economic activity and water supply capacity were the main contributing factors that affected the water resources security in the three outlets,whose variance contribution rates were 26.758% and 25.587%, respectively. The climate and population factors were the secondary factors, whose variance contribution rates were 16.240%and 15.469%, respectively.
Based on the concept of driving-force-pressure-state-impact-response(DPSIR)model, an evaluation index system for water resources safety in the three outlets of southern Jingjiang River was established, and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on entropy weight is carried out on water security status in this region during 2000-2015. Based on the factor analysis method, the changes of water security status in the region was analyzed. The results showed that: during the period 2000-2015, the overall water resources security in the three outlets was dominated by the Grade Ⅲ, accounting for 45.83%, which was still in the middle level. Water resources security showed a significant spatial and temporal variations. 1)From the perspective of time, water security status in Huarong County increased from Grade Ⅱin 2000 to Grade Ⅴ in 2015, and the degree of membership to high levels became higher and to low levels became lower in general; water security status in Anxiang were Grade Ⅳ-Ⅴ during2000-2002 and dropped to Grade Ⅲ after the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir, but the change of membership degree to each level was small, and the growth of membership degree to high levels was slow. During this period, water security status in Nanxian County fluctuated most intensely. It dropped from Grade Ⅲ to Grade Ⅱ during 2000-2002 and slowly rose to Grade Ⅲ again after 2003. However, after 2010, its state of water resources safety fell from Grade Ⅱ to Grade Ⅰ and remained at Grade Ⅰ for three consecutive years during 2011-2013.After the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir, the water resources security degree in Nanxian County fluctuated greatly and mainly moved from high level to low level. 2) From the perspective of space, before the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir, water security status in the three outlets ranked from high to low was Anxiang, Nanxian and Huarong. In the initial operation period, the order was Anxiang, Huarong and Nanxian. In the trial operation period, it was Huarong, Anxiang and Nanxian. 3) Human economic activity and water supply capacity were the main contributing factors that affected the water resources security in the three outlets,whose variance contribution rates were 26.758% and 25.587%, respectively. The climate and population factors were the secondary factors, whose variance contribution rates were 16.240%and 15.469%, respectively.
引文
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[9]胡光伟,毛德华,李正最,等.三峡工程运行对洞庭湖与荆江三口关系的影响分析[J].海洋与湖沼, 2014, 45(3):453-461.[HU G W, MAO D H, LI Z Z, et al. The impact analysis of the relations between Dongting Lake and Jingnan River after the Three Georges Reservoir operation. Oceanologia et Limnologia Sinica, 2014, 45(3):453-461.]
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[12]贾绍凤,张军岩,张士锋.区域水资源压力指数与水资源安全评价指标体系[J].地理科学进展, 2002, 21(6):538-545.[JIA S F, ZHANG J Y, ZHANG S F. Regional water resources stress and water resources security appraisement indicators. Progress in Geography, 2002, 21(6):538-545.]
[13]王壬,陈兴伟,陈莹.区域水资源可持续利用评价方法对比研究[J].自然资源学报, 2015, 30(11):1943-1955.[WANG R, CHEN X W, CHEN Y. Comparison of assessment methods for regional water resources sustainable utilization. Journal of Natural Resources, 2015, 30(11):1943-1955.]
[14] KRISTENSEN P. The DPSIR framework[R]. Roskilde, Denmark:National Environmental Research Institute, 2004.
[15]罗军刚,解建仓,阮本清.基于熵权的水资源短缺风险模糊综合评价模型及应用[J].水利学报, 2008, 39(9):1092-1097, 1104.[LUO J G, XIE J C, RUAN B Q, et al. Fuzzy comprehensive assessment model for water shortage risk based on entropy weight. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2008, 39(9):1092-1097, 1104.]
[16]何国华,汪妮,解建仓,等.基于熵权的水资源配置和谐性模糊综合评价模型的建立及应用[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版), 2016, 44(2):214-220.[HE G H, WANG N, XIE J C, et al. Establishment and application of fuzzy comprehensive assessment model for harmony of water allocation based on entropy weight. Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition), 2016, 44(2):214-220.]
[17]高长波,陈新庚,韦朝海,等.熵权模糊综合评价法在城市生态安全评价中的应用[J].应用生态学报, 2006, 17(10):1923-1927.[GAO C B, CHEN X G, WEI C H, et al. Application of entropy weight and fuzzy synthetic evaluation in urban ecological security assessment. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2006, 17(10):1923-1927.]
[18]刘迅.供应链融资模式及信用风险分析:基于金融机构的视角[D].武汉:武汉大学, 2010.[LIU X. Analysis on Model and Credit Risk of Supply Chain Finance Based on the Perspective of Financial Institute. Wuhan:Wuhan University,2010.]
[19]刘静,周玉玺.黄河流域水资源利用效益综合评价——基于AHP和模糊综合评价法[J].新疆农垦经济, 2017(3):16-21.[LIU J, ZHOU Y X. Assessment of water resources utilization of the yellow river basin—Based on ahp and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Xinjiang State Farms Economy, 2017(3):16-21.]
[20]何君,石城,杨思波,等.基于因子分析和AHP的水资源可持续利用综合评价方法[J].南水北调与水利科技, 2011,9(1):75-79.[HE J, SHI C, YANG S B, et al. Multi-index evaluation model of water resources sustainable utilization based on factor analysis and AHP. South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology, 2011, 9(1):75-79.]
[21]刘明,刘淳,王克林.洞庭湖流域生态安全状态变化及其驱动力分析[J].生态学杂志, 2007, 26(8):1271-1276.[LIU M, LIU C, WANG K L. Eco-security in Dongting Lake watershed:Its changes and relevant driving forces. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2007, 26(8):1271-1276.]
[22]李景保,何霞,杨波,等.长江中游荆南三口断流时间演变特征及其影响机制[J].自然资源学报, 2016, 31(10):1713-1725.[LI J B, HE X, YANG B, et al. Temporal evolution of dried up days and the influencing mechanisms at three outlets along Jingjiang in the middle reach of Yangtze River. Journal of Natural Resources, 2016, 31(10):1713-1725.]
[23]朱玲玲,许全喜,戴明龙.荆江三口分流变化及三峡水库蓄水影响[J].水科学进展, 2016, 27(6):822-831.[ZHU L L,XU Q X, DAI M L. Runoff diverted from the Jingjiang reach to the Dongting Lake and the effect of Three Gorges Reservoir. Advances in Water Science, 2016, 27(6):822-831.]
[24]钱湛,宋平,郑颖.湖南省洞庭湖区北部地区水资源保障策略研究[J].创新科技, 2017(7):19-22.[QIAN Z, SONG P, ZHENG Y, Study on water resources allocation scheme of North Dongting Lake area in Hunan Province. Innovation Science and Technology, 2017(7):19-22.]
[2] HUANG G W. Time lag between reduction of sediment supply and coastal erosion[J]. International Journal of Sediment Research, 2011, 26(1):27-35.
[3]班璇,姜刘志,曾小辉,等.三峡水库蓄水后长江中游水沙时空变化的定量评估[J].水科学进展, 2014, 25(5):650-657.[BAN X, JIANG L Z, ZENG X H, et al. Quantifying the spatio-temporal variation of flow and sediment in the middle Yangtze River after the impoundment of the Three Gorges. Advances in Water Science, 2014, 25(5):650-657.]
[4]张德兵,何素萍,胡国祥,等.三峡水库蓄水后长江中游干流来水量变化分析[J].人民长江, 2013, 44(1):1-3.[ZHANG D B, HE S P, HU G X, et al. Preliminary analysis on run off variation of middle Yangtze River after impoundment of Three Gorges Reservoir. Yangtze River, 2013, 44(1):1-3.]
[5]韩剑桥,孙昭华,黄颖,等.三峡水库蓄水后荆江沙质河段冲淤分布特征及成因[J].水利学报, 2014, 45(3):277-285.[HAN J Q, SUN S H, HUANG Y, et al. Features and causes of sediment deposition and erosion in Jingjiang reach after impoundment of the Three Gorges Project. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2014, 45(3):277-285.]
[6]李景保,钟一苇,周永强,等.三峡水库运行对洞庭湖北部地区水资源开发利用的影响[J].自然资源学报, 2013, 28(9):1583-1593.[LI J B, ZHONG Y W, ZHOU Y Q, et al. Impacts of the operation of Three Gorges Reservoir on the development and utilization of water resources of northern Dongting Lake area. Journal of Natural Resources, 2013, 28(9):1583-1593.]
[7]方春明,胡春宏,陈绪坚.三峡水库运用对荆江三口分流及洞庭湖的影响[J].水利学报, 2014, 45(1):36-41.[FANG C M, HU C H, CHEN X J. Impacts of Three Georges Reservoir’s operation on outflow of the three outlets of Jingjiang River and Dongting Lake. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2014, 45(1):36-41.]
[8]郭小虎,韩向东,朱勇辉,等.三峡水库的调蓄作用对荆江三口分流的影响[J].水电能源科学, 2010, 28(11):48-51.[GUO X H, HAN X D, ZHU Y H, et al. The Three Gorges reservoir regulating has affected the flow of the three diversions in Jingjiang. Water Resources and Power, 2010, 28(11):48-51.]
[9]胡光伟,毛德华,李正最,等.三峡工程运行对洞庭湖与荆江三口关系的影响分析[J].海洋与湖沼, 2014, 45(3):453-461.[HU G W, MAO D H, LI Z Z, et al. The impact analysis of the relations between Dongting Lake and Jingnan River after the Three Georges Reservoir operation. Oceanologia et Limnologia Sinica, 2014, 45(3):453-461.]
[10]李景保,罗中海,叶亚亚,等.三峡水库运行对长江荆南三口水文和生态的影响[J].应用生态学报, 2016, 27(4):1285-1293.[LI J B, LUO Z H, YE Y Y, et al. Eco-hydrological impacts of Three Gorges reservoir’s operation on three outfalls of Changjiang River. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2016, 27(4):1285-1293.]
[11]畅明琦,黄强.水资源安全理论与方法[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社, 2006.[CHAN M Q, HUANG Q. The Theory and Method of Water Resources Security. Beijing:China Water Power Press, 2006.]
[12]贾绍凤,张军岩,张士锋.区域水资源压力指数与水资源安全评价指标体系[J].地理科学进展, 2002, 21(6):538-545.[JIA S F, ZHANG J Y, ZHANG S F. Regional water resources stress and water resources security appraisement indicators. Progress in Geography, 2002, 21(6):538-545.]
[13]王壬,陈兴伟,陈莹.区域水资源可持续利用评价方法对比研究[J].自然资源学报, 2015, 30(11):1943-1955.[WANG R, CHEN X W, CHEN Y. Comparison of assessment methods for regional water resources sustainable utilization. Journal of Natural Resources, 2015, 30(11):1943-1955.]
[14] KRISTENSEN P. The DPSIR framework[R]. Roskilde, Denmark:National Environmental Research Institute, 2004.
[15]罗军刚,解建仓,阮本清.基于熵权的水资源短缺风险模糊综合评价模型及应用[J].水利学报, 2008, 39(9):1092-1097, 1104.[LUO J G, XIE J C, RUAN B Q, et al. Fuzzy comprehensive assessment model for water shortage risk based on entropy weight. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2008, 39(9):1092-1097, 1104.]
[16]何国华,汪妮,解建仓,等.基于熵权的水资源配置和谐性模糊综合评价模型的建立及应用[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版), 2016, 44(2):214-220.[HE G H, WANG N, XIE J C, et al. Establishment and application of fuzzy comprehensive assessment model for harmony of water allocation based on entropy weight. Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition), 2016, 44(2):214-220.]
[17]高长波,陈新庚,韦朝海,等.熵权模糊综合评价法在城市生态安全评价中的应用[J].应用生态学报, 2006, 17(10):1923-1927.[GAO C B, CHEN X G, WEI C H, et al. Application of entropy weight and fuzzy synthetic evaluation in urban ecological security assessment. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2006, 17(10):1923-1927.]
[18]刘迅.供应链融资模式及信用风险分析:基于金融机构的视角[D].武汉:武汉大学, 2010.[LIU X. Analysis on Model and Credit Risk of Supply Chain Finance Based on the Perspective of Financial Institute. Wuhan:Wuhan University,2010.]
[19]刘静,周玉玺.黄河流域水资源利用效益综合评价——基于AHP和模糊综合评价法[J].新疆农垦经济, 2017(3):16-21.[LIU J, ZHOU Y X. Assessment of water resources utilization of the yellow river basin—Based on ahp and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Xinjiang State Farms Economy, 2017(3):16-21.]
[20]何君,石城,杨思波,等.基于因子分析和AHP的水资源可持续利用综合评价方法[J].南水北调与水利科技, 2011,9(1):75-79.[HE J, SHI C, YANG S B, et al. Multi-index evaluation model of water resources sustainable utilization based on factor analysis and AHP. South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology, 2011, 9(1):75-79.]
[21]刘明,刘淳,王克林.洞庭湖流域生态安全状态变化及其驱动力分析[J].生态学杂志, 2007, 26(8):1271-1276.[LIU M, LIU C, WANG K L. Eco-security in Dongting Lake watershed:Its changes and relevant driving forces. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2007, 26(8):1271-1276.]
[22]李景保,何霞,杨波,等.长江中游荆南三口断流时间演变特征及其影响机制[J].自然资源学报, 2016, 31(10):1713-1725.[LI J B, HE X, YANG B, et al. Temporal evolution of dried up days and the influencing mechanisms at three outlets along Jingjiang in the middle reach of Yangtze River. Journal of Natural Resources, 2016, 31(10):1713-1725.]
[23]朱玲玲,许全喜,戴明龙.荆江三口分流变化及三峡水库蓄水影响[J].水科学进展, 2016, 27(6):822-831.[ZHU L L,XU Q X, DAI M L. Runoff diverted from the Jingjiang reach to the Dongting Lake and the effect of Three Gorges Reservoir. Advances in Water Science, 2016, 27(6):822-831.]
[24]钱湛,宋平,郑颖.湖南省洞庭湖区北部地区水资源保障策略研究[J].创新科技, 2017(7):19-22.[QIAN Z, SONG P, ZHENG Y, Study on water resources allocation scheme of North Dongting Lake area in Hunan Province. Innovation Science and Technology, 2017(7):19-22.]