渤海J油田储量不确定性分析及优选
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摘要
地质建模的最终目的是建立反映地质认识的地质模型,并对储量不确定性进行定量表征。储量是油田开发方案编制的基础,一个油田科学合理的开发往往需设计乐观、推荐、悲观三个方案,分别对应着乐观、推荐、悲观三个储量,即储量的P10,P50,P90。渤海J油田正处于开发的前期研究阶段,井点资料少,储层的纵横向变化快,储量不确定性强,而如何优选储量的P10,P50,P90成为决定油田开发方案编制的关键一环。该文通过构造、储层及油藏特征的分析首先确定了影响该油田储量的5个不确定性因素,即:构造幅度、油水界面深度、孔隙度下限、泥岩主变程、泥岩次变程,并分析了它们的分布范围,通过地质模型的建立对各个不确定性因素开展敏感性分析,确定油水界面深度、孔隙度下限、泥岩主变程是影响储量最大的3个因素,并以此为基础对J油田的储量进行了不确定性分析,优选了储量的P10,P50,P90。
The ultimate aim of geological modeling is to establish geological models that reflect geological cognition,and to quantify the uncertainty of the reservoir and the uncertainty of the reserves resulting from it.The J oil field in Bohai is in the preliminary research stage of development.There are few wells,the vertical and horizontal changes of reservoirs are fast,and the reserves are uncertain.In this paper,the uncertainty parameters and distribution range of the oil field are determined through the analysis of the structure,reservoir and reservoir characteristics,and the sensitivity analysis of various uncertain parameters is carried out through the establishment of the geological model,and their influence on the reserves is determined.On these basis,the uncertainty analysis of the reserves of J oil field is made and the optimization is optimized.The reserves of P10,P50 and P90 laid the foundation for the formulation of oilfield development plan.
The ultimate aim of geological modeling is to establish geological models that reflect geological cognition,and to quantify the uncertainty of the reservoir and the uncertainty of the reserves resulting from it.The J oil field in Bohai is in the preliminary research stage of development.There are few wells,the vertical and horizontal changes of reservoirs are fast,and the reserves are uncertain.In this paper,the uncertainty parameters and distribution range of the oil field are determined through the analysis of the structure,reservoir and reservoir characteristics,and the sensitivity analysis of various uncertain parameters is carried out through the establishment of the geological model,and their influence on the reserves is determined.On these basis,the uncertainty analysis of the reserves of J oil field is made and the optimization is optimized.The reserves of P10,P50 and P90 laid the foundation for the formulation of oilfield development plan.
引文
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[12]张明祿,王家华,卢涛.应用储层随机建模方法计算概率储量[J].石油学报,2002,25(1):65-68.
[13]高玉飞,胡光义,王晖,等.P气田基于地质模型的储量不确定性分析[J].山东国土资源,2016,32(10):16-20.
[2]刘卫丽.油藏建模中的不确定性研究[D].西安,西安石油大学,2012:3-16.
[3]于兴河,陈建阳,张志杰,等.油气储层相控随机建模技术的约束方法[J].地学前缘,2005,11(3):237-244.
[4]沈章洪,梁雪梅,田立新.随机模拟技术在QHD32-6油田油藏地质模型随钻调整中的应用[J].中国海上油气(地质),2001,15(6):405-408.
[5]周丽清,熊琦华,吴胜和.随机建模中相模型的优选验证原则[J].石油勘探与开发,2001,28(1):69-71.
[6]霍春亮,刘松,古莉,等.一种定量评价储集层地质模型不确定性的方法[J].石油勘探与开发,2007,34(5):574-579.
[7]崇仁杰,宋春华,程立芝.应用随机模拟技术建立夹层模型[J]石油与天然气地质,2002,23(1):89-91.
[8]薛艳霞,廖新武,赵春明,等.基于随机建模技术的油田开发初期河流相储层不确定性分析方法[J].岩性油气藏,2012,24(1):80-83.
[9]崇仁杰,于兴河,李婷婷.应用实验设计优选随机建模的储层模型[J].石油与天然气地质,2012,33(1):94-100.
[10]徐文,王东旭,何丽萍.辫状河三角洲沉积体单井地质模型优选研究[J].天然气工业,2005,25(4):1-2.
[11]朱卫红,吴胜和,尹志军,等,辫状河三角洲露头构型---以塔里木盆地库车坳陷三叠系黄山街组为例[J].石油勘探与开发,2016,43(3):482-489.
[12]张明祿,王家华,卢涛.应用储层随机建模方法计算概率储量[J].石油学报,2002,25(1):65-68.
[13]高玉飞,胡光义,王晖,等.P气田基于地质模型的储量不确定性分析[J].山东国土资源,2016,32(10):16-20.