普惠金融水平的衡量及其对经济增长的影响——基于省际面板数据的实证分析
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摘要
参考M. Sarma提出的指数计算方法并结合我国的实际情况,选取9个经济指标综合计算我国各省市普惠金融指数。并在此基础上利用我国其中30个省2006—2017年的经济数据,使用固定效应模型与基于差分GMM的动态面板数据模型研究普惠金融对经济增长的影响。普惠金融指数结果表明:近十年来,我国整体的普惠金融水平有了一定的进步,但地区差异相对较大。实证分析结果表明:普惠金融在促进经济增长方面具有重要作用,但从长远来看,其贡献并不显著。因此,应努力探索普惠金融发展和经济增长的长效互补机制,增强经济增长潜力并加快经济发展进程。
In reference to the index calculation method proposed by M. Sarma, combined with China's actual economic situation, nine economic indicators are selected to calculate the inclusive financial index of China's provinces and cities. On this basis, a study has been carried out on the impact of inclusive finance on economic growth by citing the economic data of China's 30 provinces from 2006 to 2017, and by using fixed effect model and dynamic panel data model based on DiffGMM. The results of inclusive financial index show that in the past decade, China's overall inclusive financial level has made some progress, while with a considerable regional discrepancy. The empirical analysis shows that the inclusive finance plays an important role in promoting economic growth, but its contribution is not significant in the long run. Therefore, great efforts should be made to explore long-term complementary mechanisms for inclusive financial development and economic growth, enhance economic growth potential and accelerate economic development.
In reference to the index calculation method proposed by M. Sarma, combined with China's actual economic situation, nine economic indicators are selected to calculate the inclusive financial index of China's provinces and cities. On this basis, a study has been carried out on the impact of inclusive finance on economic growth by citing the economic data of China's 30 provinces from 2006 to 2017, and by using fixed effect model and dynamic panel data model based on DiffGMM. The results of inclusive financial index show that in the past decade, China's overall inclusive financial level has made some progress, while with a considerable regional discrepancy. The empirical analysis shows that the inclusive finance plays an important role in promoting economic growth, but its contribution is not significant in the long run. Therefore, great efforts should be made to explore long-term complementary mechanisms for inclusive financial development and economic growth, enhance economic growth potential and accelerate economic development.
引文
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[16]中国人民银行河池市中心支行课题组.金融支持扶贫产业发展与风险防控问题研究:基于广西模式视角[J].征信,2019,37(2):73-78.Research Team of Hechi City Central Sub-Branch of the People’s Bank of China.Study on the Financial Support for the Development of Poverty Alleviation Industries and Risk Prevention and Control:A Case Study of Guangxi Zhung Autonomous Region[J].Credit Reference,2019,37(2):73-78.
[17]颜泳红,李滢盈.我国准金融机构的发展动态及监管对策[J].湖南工业大学学报(社会科学版),2018,23(2):59-65.YAN Yonghong,LI Yingying.The Development and Supervision of China,s Quasi-Financial Institutions[J]Journal of Hunan University of Technology(Social Science Edition),2018,23(2):59-65.
[18]杨光.互联网金融背景下普惠金融发展研究[J].征信,2015,33(2):21-24.YANG Guang.Research on Inclusive Financial Development Under the Background of Internet Finance[J].Credit Reference,2015,33(2):21-24.
[2]SARMA M,PAIS J.Financial Inclusion and Development[J].Journal of International Development,2011,23(5):613-628.
[3]SETHY S K.Developing a Financial Inclusion Index and Inclusive Growth in India[J].Theoretical&Applied Economics,2016,23(2):187-206.
[4]王睿,蒲勇健.中西部地区农村小额信贷机构发展现状实证研究[J].统计研究,2008,25(4):108-110.WANG Rui,PU Yongjian.Empirical Test on the Development Status of Rural Microfinance Institutions in the Central and Western Regions[J].Statistical Research,2008,25(4):108-110.
[5]焦瑾璞.构建普惠金融体系的重要性[J].中国金融,2010(10):12-13.JIAO Jinpu.Importance of Building an Inclusive Financial System[J].China Finance,2010(10):12-13.
[6]高霞.当代普惠金融理论及中国相关对策研究[D].沈阳:辽宁大学,2016.GAO Xia.The Research on Contemporary Inclusive Finance Theory and Related Countermeasures in China[D].Shenyang:Liaoning University,2016.
[7]宋晓玲.“互联网+”普惠金融是否影响城乡收入均衡增长?:基于中国省际面板数据的经验分析[J].财经问题研究,2017(7):50-56.SONG Xiaoling.Does“Internet+”Inclusive Finance Affect the Balanced Growth of Urban and Rural Income?:An Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese Provincial Panel Data[J].Research on Financial and Economic Issues,2017(7):50-56.
[8]陈三毛,钱晓萍.中国各省金融包容性指数及其测算[J].金融论坛,2014,19(9):3-8.CHEN Sanmao,QIAN Xiaoping.The Financial Inclusion Indexes of Chinese Provinces and the Measurement[J].Finance Forum,2014,19(9):3-8.
[9]马彧菲,杜朝运.普惠金融指数测度及减贫效应研究[J].经济与管理研究,2017,38(5):45-53.MA Yufei,DU Chaoyun.Measurement of Inclusive Finance Index and Poverty Alleviation Effect[J].Research on Economics and Management,2017,38(5):45-53.
[10]王婧,胡国晖.中国普惠金融的发展评价及影响因素分析[J].金融论坛,2013,18(6):31-36.WANG Jing,HU Guohui.The Evaluation of the Development of China,s Inclusive Finance and the Analysis of Factors[J].Finance Forum,2013,18(6):31-36.
[11]周斌,毛德勇,朱桂宾,等.“互联网+”、普惠金融与经济增长:基于面板数据的PVAR模型实证检验[J].财经理论与实践,2017,38(2):8-15.ZHOU Bin,MAO Deyong,ZHU Guibin,et al.“Internet+”,Inclusive Finance and Economic Growth:Empirical Test of PVAR Model Based on Panel Data[J].The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics,2017,38(2):8-15.
[12]徐强,陶侃.中国新克强指数的构建与实证分析[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2017,27(3):107-115.XU Qiang,TAO Kan.Construction and Empirical Analysis of China’s New Keqiang Index[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2017,27(3):107-115.
[13]彭俞超.金融功能观视角下的金融结构与经济增长:来自1989~2011年的国际经验[J].金融研究,2015(1):32-49.PENG Yuchao.Financial Structure and Economic Growth from the Perspective of Financial Function View:International Evidence During 1989~2011[J].Journal of Financial Research,2015(1):32-49.
[14]李涛,徐翔,孙硕.普惠金融与经济增长[J].金融研究,2016(4):1-16.LI Tao,XU Xiang,SUN Shuo.Inclusive Finance and Economic Growth[J].Journal of Financial Research,2016(4):1-16.
[15]杜强,潘怡.普惠金融对我国地区经济发展的影响研究:基于省际面板数据的实证分析[J].经济问题探索,2016(3):178-184.DU Qiang,PAN Yi.Research on the Influence of Inclusive Finance on China,s Regional Economic Development[J].Inquiry into Economic Issues,2016(3):178-184.
[16]中国人民银行河池市中心支行课题组.金融支持扶贫产业发展与风险防控问题研究:基于广西模式视角[J].征信,2019,37(2):73-78.Research Team of Hechi City Central Sub-Branch of the People’s Bank of China.Study on the Financial Support for the Development of Poverty Alleviation Industries and Risk Prevention and Control:A Case Study of Guangxi Zhung Autonomous Region[J].Credit Reference,2019,37(2):73-78.
[17]颜泳红,李滢盈.我国准金融机构的发展动态及监管对策[J].湖南工业大学学报(社会科学版),2018,23(2):59-65.YAN Yonghong,LI Yingying.The Development and Supervision of China,s Quasi-Financial Institutions[J]Journal of Hunan University of Technology(Social Science Edition),2018,23(2):59-65.
[18]杨光.互联网金融背景下普惠金融发展研究[J].征信,2015,33(2):21-24.YANG Guang.Research on Inclusive Financial Development Under the Background of Internet Finance[J].Credit Reference,2015,33(2):21-24.