一种基于线性阈值的网络谣言离散传播模型
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摘要
【目的/意义】网络谣言的传播研究,对监管部门及时准确地应对网络谣言事件、维护网络环境安全与稳定均具有重要意义。【方法/过程】针对网络谣言的特点,综合考虑了谣言的时效性、网络用户的追随性等特征,在线性阈值模型的基础上,定义了谣言传播过程中网络用户的进入阈值与退出阈值,采用离散数学的形式对谣言传播过程进行描述,提出了一种基于线性阈值的社交网络谣言离散传播模型;并在具有无标度属性的社交网络中进行仿真实验。【结果/结论】将该离散模型的实验结果与经典的传播模型进行对比,并且通过仿真实验分析了主要影响因素对谣言传播过程的影响。结果表明该离散模型能更好地反映社交网络中谣言的传播规律。本研究为社交网络中谣言传播的分析提供了新视角,并为网络谣言监测与控制提供理论支撑与决策依据。
【Purpose/significance】The research on the propagation of Internet rumor is of great significance to the supervisory departments to deal with the online rumor incidents timely and accurately, and to maintain the security and stability of the network environment.【Method/process】In view of the characteristics of the Internet rumor, considering the characteristics of the timeliness of rumor and the following of Internet users, the entry and exit threshold of Internet users in the process of rumor propagation are defined, on the basis of the linear threshold model. Then, the process of rumor propagation is described in the form of discrete mathematics, a discrete propagation model of social network rumor based on linear threshold is proposed, and simulation experiments are conducted in social networks with scale-free attributes.【Result/conclusion】The experimental results of the discrete model are compared with the classical propagation model firstly, then the influence of the main factors on the rumor spreading process is analyzed through simulation experiments. The results show that the discrete model can better reflect the propagation of rumors in social networks. This paper provides a new perspective for the analysis of rumor propagation in social networks and provides theoretical support and decision basis for the monitoring and control of Internet rumor.
【Purpose/significance】The research on the propagation of Internet rumor is of great significance to the supervisory departments to deal with the online rumor incidents timely and accurately, and to maintain the security and stability of the network environment.【Method/process】In view of the characteristics of the Internet rumor, considering the characteristics of the timeliness of rumor and the following of Internet users, the entry and exit threshold of Internet users in the process of rumor propagation are defined, on the basis of the linear threshold model. Then, the process of rumor propagation is described in the form of discrete mathematics, a discrete propagation model of social network rumor based on linear threshold is proposed, and simulation experiments are conducted in social networks with scale-free attributes.【Result/conclusion】The experimental results of the discrete model are compared with the classical propagation model firstly, then the influence of the main factors on the rumor spreading process is analyzed through simulation experiments. The results show that the discrete model can better reflect the propagation of rumors in social networks. This paper provides a new perspective for the analysis of rumor propagation in social networks and provides theoretical support and decision basis for the monitoring and control of Internet rumor.
引文
1 中国互联网络信息中心.第41次中国互联网络发展状况统计报告[EB/OL].http://www.cac.gov.cn/2018-01/31 /c_1122346138.htm,2018-01-31.
2 Zanette D H. Dynamics of rumor propagation on small-world networks[J]. Physical Review E. 2002,65(4):041908.
3 Moreno Y, Nekovee M, Pacheco A F. Dynamics of rumor spreading in complex networks[J]. Physical Review E, 2004, 69(2):066130.
4 Zhou J, Liu Z, Li B. Influence of network structure on rumor propagation[J]. Physics Letters A, 2007, 38(6):458-463.
5 潘灶峰,汪小帆,李翔.可变聚类系数无标度网络上的谣言传播仿真研究[J].系统仿真学报, 2006, 18(8):2346-2348.
6 王金龙,刘方爱,朱振方.一种基于用户相对权重的在线社交网络信息传播模型[J].物理学报, 2015,64(5):1-11.
7 Jiang P, Yan X. Stability analysis and control models for rumor spreading in online social networks[J]. International Journal of Modern Physics C, 2017, 28(5):1750061:1-22.
8 于凯,荣莉莉,郭文强,等.基于线上线下网络的舆情传播模型研究[J].管理评论, 2015, 27(8):200-212.
9 Daley DJ, Kendall DG. Epidemics and Rumors[J]. Nature, 1964, 204(4963):1118-1118.
10 Huo L, Wang L, Song N, et al. Rumor spreading model considering the activity of spreaders in the homogenous network[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2017, 468:855-865.
11 洪巍,王虎.基于SIRT的网络谣言传播演化模型研究[J].现代情报, 2017, 37(6):36-42.
12 万贻平,张东戈,任清辉.考虑谣言清除过程的网络谣言传播与抑制[J].物理学报, 2015, 64(24):240501:1-11.
13 Hill A L, Rand D G, Nowak M A, et al. Infectious disease modeling of social contagion in networks[J]. Plos computational biology, 2010, 6(11):1-15.
14 Xia L, Jiang G, Song B, et al. Rumor spreading model considering hesitating mechanism in complex social networks[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2015, 437:295-303.
15 Zhao L, Qiu X, Wang X, et al. Rumor spreading model considering forgetting and remembering mechanisms in inhomogeneous networks[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2013, 392:987-994.
16 Al-Tuwairqi S, Al-Sheikh S, Al-Amoudi R. Qualitative analysis of a rumor transmission model with incubation mechanism[J]. Open Access Library Journal, 2015, 2(12):1-12.
17 兰月新,夏一雪,刘冰月.面向突发事件的网络谣言传播主体建模与仿真研究[J].情报科学, 2018, 36(5):119-125.
18 殷飞,张鹏,兰月新,等.基于系统动力学的突发事件网络谣言治理研究[J].情报科学, 2018, 36(4):57-63.
19 Huo L, Ma C. Dynamics analysis of rumor spreading model with impulse vaccination and time delay[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2016, 471:750-760.
20 王辉,韩江洪,邓林,等.基于移动社交网络的谣言传播动力学研究[J].物理学报, 2013, 62(11):1-15.
21 张玉亮,杨英甲.基于扎根理论的政府食品安全网络谣言介入行为有效性研究[J].情报杂志, 2018, 37(3):122-129.
22 兰月新,夏一雪,刘冰月,等.网络舆情传播阶段精细化建模与仿真研究[J].现代情报, 2018, 38(1):76-86.
23 韩少春,刘云,张彦超,等.基于动态演化博弈论的舆论传播羊群效应[J].系统工程学报,2011, 26(2):275-281.
24 Ababou M, Vandewalle N, Moussa N, et al. Spreading of periodic diseases and synchronization phenomena on networks[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2013, 392(10):2526-2531.
25 Xu D, Xu X, Yang C, et al. Spreading dynamics and synchronization behavior of periodic diseases on complex networks[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2017, 466:544-551.
26 Granovetter M. Threshold models of collective behavior[J].American Journal of Sociology, 1978, 83(6):1420-1443.
27 蔡淑琴,袁乾,周鹏.企业响应下负面口碑线性阈值传播模型研究[J].系统工程学报, 2017, 32(2):145-155.
28 覃志华,刘咏梅.考虑转发阈值差异的微信两层网络谣言传播演化研究[J].情报杂志, 2016, 35(8):162-168.
29 Yagan O, Gligor V. Analysis of complex contagions in random multiplex networks[J]. Physical Review E, 2012, 86(3):036103.
30 Sudbury A. The proportion of population never hearing a rumor[J]. Journal of Applied Probability, 1985, 22(2):443-446.
2 Zanette D H. Dynamics of rumor propagation on small-world networks[J]. Physical Review E. 2002,65(4):041908.
3 Moreno Y, Nekovee M, Pacheco A F. Dynamics of rumor spreading in complex networks[J]. Physical Review E, 2004, 69(2):066130.
4 Zhou J, Liu Z, Li B. Influence of network structure on rumor propagation[J]. Physics Letters A, 2007, 38(6):458-463.
5 潘灶峰,汪小帆,李翔.可变聚类系数无标度网络上的谣言传播仿真研究[J].系统仿真学报, 2006, 18(8):2346-2348.
6 王金龙,刘方爱,朱振方.一种基于用户相对权重的在线社交网络信息传播模型[J].物理学报, 2015,64(5):1-11.
7 Jiang P, Yan X. Stability analysis and control models for rumor spreading in online social networks[J]. International Journal of Modern Physics C, 2017, 28(5):1750061:1-22.
8 于凯,荣莉莉,郭文强,等.基于线上线下网络的舆情传播模型研究[J].管理评论, 2015, 27(8):200-212.
9 Daley DJ, Kendall DG. Epidemics and Rumors[J]. Nature, 1964, 204(4963):1118-1118.
10 Huo L, Wang L, Song N, et al. Rumor spreading model considering the activity of spreaders in the homogenous network[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2017, 468:855-865.
11 洪巍,王虎.基于SIRT的网络谣言传播演化模型研究[J].现代情报, 2017, 37(6):36-42.
12 万贻平,张东戈,任清辉.考虑谣言清除过程的网络谣言传播与抑制[J].物理学报, 2015, 64(24):240501:1-11.
13 Hill A L, Rand D G, Nowak M A, et al. Infectious disease modeling of social contagion in networks[J]. Plos computational biology, 2010, 6(11):1-15.
14 Xia L, Jiang G, Song B, et al. Rumor spreading model considering hesitating mechanism in complex social networks[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2015, 437:295-303.
15 Zhao L, Qiu X, Wang X, et al. Rumor spreading model considering forgetting and remembering mechanisms in inhomogeneous networks[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2013, 392:987-994.
16 Al-Tuwairqi S, Al-Sheikh S, Al-Amoudi R. Qualitative analysis of a rumor transmission model with incubation mechanism[J]. Open Access Library Journal, 2015, 2(12):1-12.
17 兰月新,夏一雪,刘冰月.面向突发事件的网络谣言传播主体建模与仿真研究[J].情报科学, 2018, 36(5):119-125.
18 殷飞,张鹏,兰月新,等.基于系统动力学的突发事件网络谣言治理研究[J].情报科学, 2018, 36(4):57-63.
19 Huo L, Ma C. Dynamics analysis of rumor spreading model with impulse vaccination and time delay[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2016, 471:750-760.
20 王辉,韩江洪,邓林,等.基于移动社交网络的谣言传播动力学研究[J].物理学报, 2013, 62(11):1-15.
21 张玉亮,杨英甲.基于扎根理论的政府食品安全网络谣言介入行为有效性研究[J].情报杂志, 2018, 37(3):122-129.
22 兰月新,夏一雪,刘冰月,等.网络舆情传播阶段精细化建模与仿真研究[J].现代情报, 2018, 38(1):76-86.
23 韩少春,刘云,张彦超,等.基于动态演化博弈论的舆论传播羊群效应[J].系统工程学报,2011, 26(2):275-281.
24 Ababou M, Vandewalle N, Moussa N, et al. Spreading of periodic diseases and synchronization phenomena on networks[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2013, 392(10):2526-2531.
25 Xu D, Xu X, Yang C, et al. Spreading dynamics and synchronization behavior of periodic diseases on complex networks[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2017, 466:544-551.
26 Granovetter M. Threshold models of collective behavior[J].American Journal of Sociology, 1978, 83(6):1420-1443.
27 蔡淑琴,袁乾,周鹏.企业响应下负面口碑线性阈值传播模型研究[J].系统工程学报, 2017, 32(2):145-155.
28 覃志华,刘咏梅.考虑转发阈值差异的微信两层网络谣言传播演化研究[J].情报杂志, 2016, 35(8):162-168.
29 Yagan O, Gligor V. Analysis of complex contagions in random multiplex networks[J]. Physical Review E, 2012, 86(3):036103.
30 Sudbury A. The proportion of population never hearing a rumor[J]. Journal of Applied Probability, 1985, 22(2):443-446.