中国主要农产品贸易中隐含的虚拟耕地资源“尾效”研究
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摘要
虚拟耕地资源是当今土地资源方面研究的热点话题,被认为是解决土地资源压力和促进经济增长等方面的重要举措之一。本文在计算出1996—2016年中国主要农产品贸易中隐含的虚拟耕地资源净进口量的基础上,运用"尾效"分析方法研究了中国主要农产品贸易中隐含的虚拟耕地资源"尾效"对中国农业经济增长的约束和促进作用。研究结果表明:谷物贸易中隐含的虚拟耕地资源主要以进口为主,棉花呈阶段性的"U"型和"M"型特征,蔬菜呈"V"型变化特征,油籽呈线性增长趋势,糖料2009年以前在2. 0×104hm2上下波动。中国主要农产品贸易中隐含的虚拟耕地资源"尾效"对于中国农业经济增长总体呈促进作用,约占6. 51%。其中,棉花、蔬菜、谷物呈现约束作用,阻碍程度分别为4. 17%、2. 30%、1. 28%;油籽、糖料呈现促进作用,促进程度分别为13. 56%和0. 69%,进一步证实了中国属于主要农产品贸易中隐含的虚拟耕地资源净进口较大的国家。同时本文还提出要制定符合国情的耕地资源战略、试点实施虚拟耕地资源战略、创新耕地资源管理体制等政策建议。
Virtual farmland resource is a hot topic in the field of land resource research nowadays,and it is considered as one of the important measures to solve the pressure of land resource and promote economic growth,etc. On the basis of calculating the net import volume of virtual cultivated land resources implied in the trade of major agricultural products in China from 1996 to 2016,this paper uses the'tail effect'analysis method to study the restraint and promotion effects of the'tail effect'of virtual cultivated land resources implied in the trade of major agricultural products on China's agricultural economic growth. The results show that the virtual cultivated land resources implied in grain trade are mainly imported. Cotton showed periodically'U'type and'M'type of variation,Vegetables showed a'V'type of variation,oil seeds showed a linear growth trend,and sugars fluctuated in 20,000 hectares before 2009.Overall,? The'tail effect'of virtual cultivated land resources implied in the trade of major agricultural products in China has promoted the growth of China 's agricultural economy,accounting for about 6. 51%. Among them,cotton,vegetables and cereals showed restraint effect,and the 'tail effect'of resources were 4. 17%,2. 30% and 1. 28% respectively; oil seeds and sugar showed promotion effect,with the promotion degree of 13. 56% and 0. 69% respectively. The above data further confirm that China is a country with large net import of virtual cultivated land resources implied in the trade of major agricultural products. This paper also puts forward some policy suggestions,such as formulating the cultivated land resources strategy in line with the national conditions,implementing the virtual cultivated land resources strategy in the pilot project,and innovating the management system of cultivated land resource,etc.
Virtual farmland resource is a hot topic in the field of land resource research nowadays,and it is considered as one of the important measures to solve the pressure of land resource and promote economic growth,etc. On the basis of calculating the net import volume of virtual cultivated land resources implied in the trade of major agricultural products in China from 1996 to 2016,this paper uses the'tail effect'analysis method to study the restraint and promotion effects of the'tail effect'of virtual cultivated land resources implied in the trade of major agricultural products on China's agricultural economic growth. The results show that the virtual cultivated land resources implied in grain trade are mainly imported. Cotton showed periodically'U'type and'M'type of variation,Vegetables showed a'V'type of variation,oil seeds showed a linear growth trend,and sugars fluctuated in 20,000 hectares before 2009.Overall,? The'tail effect'of virtual cultivated land resources implied in the trade of major agricultural products in China has promoted the growth of China 's agricultural economy,accounting for about 6. 51%. Among them,cotton,vegetables and cereals showed restraint effect,and the 'tail effect'of resources were 4. 17%,2. 30% and 1. 28% respectively; oil seeds and sugar showed promotion effect,with the promotion degree of 13. 56% and 0. 69% respectively. The above data further confirm that China is a country with large net import of virtual cultivated land resources implied in the trade of major agricultural products. This paper also puts forward some policy suggestions,such as formulating the cultivated land resources strategy in line with the national conditions,implementing the virtual cultivated land resources strategy in the pilot project,and innovating the management system of cultivated land resource,etc.
引文
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[19]严志强,颜章雄,胡宝清,等.虚拟土地、虚拟土地战略与区域土地资源优化配置管理的理论探讨[J].广西社会科学,2007(10):70-74.
[20]成丽,方天堃,潘春玲.中国粮食贸易中虚拟耕地贸易的估算[J].中国农村经济,2008(6):25-31.
[21]SOLOW R M. A contribution to the theory of economic growth[J].Quarterly journal of economics,1956,70:425-429.
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[2]ALLAN J A. Fortunately there are substitutes for water otherwise our hydro-political futures would be impossible[C]//Priorities for water resources allocation and management. London:ODA,1993:13-26.
[3]程国栋.虚拟水——中国水资源安全战略的新思路[J].中国科学院院刊,2003(4):260-265.
[4]罗贞礼,龙爱华,黄璜,等.虚拟土战略与土地资源可持续利用的社会化管理[J].冰川冻土,2004(5):624-631.
[5]ROMER D. Advanced macro-economics[M]. Shanghai:Shanghai University of Finance&Econmics Press, the Mc Graw-Hill Companies,2001.
[6]薛俊波,王铮,朱建武,等.中国经济增长的“尾效”分析[J].财经研究,2004(9):5-14.
[7]崔云.中国经济增长中土地资源的“尾效”分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2007(11):32-37.
[8]NORDHAUS W D. Lethal model 2:the limits to growth revisited[J]. Brooking papers on economic activity,1992(2):1-43.
[9]CHRISTLANM S,GEORG Z. Exhaustibce resources,monopolistic competition,and endogenous growth[J]. Environmental and resource economics,1999,13(2):169-185.
[10]POUL S. Polluting non-renewable resources and growth[J].Environmental and resource economics,2000,16(2):211-227.
[11]王泽宇,卢雪凤,韩增林.海洋资源约束与中国海洋经济增长——基于海洋资源“尾效”的计量检验[J].地理科学,2017,37(10):1497-1506.
[12]刘耀彬,杨新梅,周瑞辉,等.中部地区经济增长中的水土资源“增长尾效”对比研究[J].资源科学,2011,33(9):1781-1787.
[13]聂华林,杨福霞,杨冕.中国农业经济增长的水土资源“尾效”研究[J].统计与决策,2011(15):110-113.
[14]王家庭.中国区域经济增长中的土地资源尾效研究[J].经济地理,2010,30(12):2067-2072,2121.
[15]刘雄兵,喻燕.建设用地资源“尾效”计量研究——武汉实证[J].国土资源科技管理,2010,27(6):93-98.
[16]谢书玲,王铮,薛俊波.中国经济发展中水土资源的“增长尾效”分析[J].管理世界,2005(7):22-25,54.
[17]张琳,许晶,王亚辉,等.中国城镇化进程中土地资源尾效的空间分异研究[J].中国土地科学,2014,28(6):30-36.
[18]刘耀彬,杨新梅.基于内生经济增长理论的城市化进程中资源环境“尾效”分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(2):24-30.
[19]严志强,颜章雄,胡宝清,等.虚拟土地、虚拟土地战略与区域土地资源优化配置管理的理论探讨[J].广西社会科学,2007(10):70-74.
[20]成丽,方天堃,潘春玲.中国粮食贸易中虚拟耕地贸易的估算[J].中国农村经济,2008(6):25-31.
[21]SOLOW R M. A contribution to the theory of economic growth[J].Quarterly journal of economics,1956,70:425-429.
[22]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952—2000[J].经济研究,2004(10):35-44.