基于土地利用变化及CA-Markov土地利用变化预测模型预测的生态敏感性分析
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摘要
土地利用变化是导致生态敏感性的重要因素,不仅体现了土地资源的数量、质量方面的特征,还反映了土地利用格局动态。市(县)生态敏感性研究对生态环境保护和区域发展具有最直接的意义。融合土地利用和生态环境之间相互关系的基本结构,利用土地利用动态度模型和地理信息系统空间分析功能,建成土地利用变化下的生态敏感性指标体系和分级标准,分析建设用地、林地、草地、耕地、水域、未利用地等土地利用类型的面积比例和变化过程,对库车县2009—2016年期间单一土地利用动态度变化和生态敏感性程度进行了定量研究。通过CA-Markov土地利用变化预测模型预测库车县2020年土地利用格局,根据土地利用强度变化率的比值得到土地利用变化下的生态敏感性指数,运用Arc GIS空间叠加功能分析其过程,目的在于得到生态敏感性分布情况。生态敏感性划分为高敏感、中敏感、低敏感及不敏感4个等级。得出以下结论:2009—2016年间耕地、建设用地和林地每年以0.34%、1.37%和0.22%的速度增加;草地、水域和未利用地每年以0.24%、0.04%和0.27%的速度减少。库车县2020年的土地利用预测结果表明,高敏感和低敏感区域面积减少到2 458.92 km2和1 055.71 km2,中敏感区域由2009年的7 312.59 km2减少到2016年的7 286.87 km2,再减少到2020年的6 534.97 km2,不敏感区域面积由2009年的3 604.88 km2增加到2016年的3 626.83 km2,再增加到2020年的4 476.57 km2。该研究将为库车县土地可持续利用提供借鉴,也为区域土地环境影响的动态模拟提供新思路。
Land use change is an important factor leading to ecological sensitivity.It not only reflects the quantity and quality of land resources,but also reflects the dynamics of land use patterns.City( county) ecological sensitivity research has the most direct significance for ecological environmental protection and regional development.Integrating the basic structure of the relationship between land use and ecological environment,using the land use dynamics model and the geographic information system spatial analysis function,the ecological sensitivity index system and grading standards under land use change were built,and the construction land,forest land and grassland were analyzed.The area ratio and change process of land use types such as cultivated land,water area and unused land were quantitatively studied for the change of single land use dynamic degree and ecological sensitivity during the period from 2009 to 2016 in Kuche County.The CA-Markov land use change prediction model was used to predict the land use pattern of Kuche County in 2020,and the ratio of land use intensity change rate was obtained by the ecological sensitivity index under land use change.The Arc GIS spatial superposition function was used to analyze the process.The ecological sensitivity level was divided into four levels: high sensitivity,medium sensitivity,low sensitivity and insensitivity.The paper drew the following conclusions: the cultivated land and construction and forest land increased by 0.34%,1.37% and 0.22% per year from 2009 to 2016.Grassland,water and unused land were decreasing at a rate of 0.24%,0.04% and 0.27% per year.The land use forecast results of Kuche County in 2020 indicated that the area of highsensitivity and low-sensitivity areas in Kuche County had decreased to 2 458.92 km2 and 1 055.71 km2,and the sensitive area had been reduced from 7 312.59 km2 in 2009 to 7 268.87 km2 in 2016,and then decreased to 6 534.97 km2 in 2020.The area of insensitive area had been increased from 3 604.88 km2 in 2009 to 3 626.83 km2 in 2016,and then increased to 4 746.57 km2 in 2020.This study will provide reference for the sustainable use of land in Kuche County,and also provide new ideas for the dynamic simulation of regional land environmental impact.
Land use change is an important factor leading to ecological sensitivity.It not only reflects the quantity and quality of land resources,but also reflects the dynamics of land use patterns.City( county) ecological sensitivity research has the most direct significance for ecological environmental protection and regional development.Integrating the basic structure of the relationship between land use and ecological environment,using the land use dynamics model and the geographic information system spatial analysis function,the ecological sensitivity index system and grading standards under land use change were built,and the construction land,forest land and grassland were analyzed.The area ratio and change process of land use types such as cultivated land,water area and unused land were quantitatively studied for the change of single land use dynamic degree and ecological sensitivity during the period from 2009 to 2016 in Kuche County.The CA-Markov land use change prediction model was used to predict the land use pattern of Kuche County in 2020,and the ratio of land use intensity change rate was obtained by the ecological sensitivity index under land use change.The Arc GIS spatial superposition function was used to analyze the process.The ecological sensitivity level was divided into four levels: high sensitivity,medium sensitivity,low sensitivity and insensitivity.The paper drew the following conclusions: the cultivated land and construction and forest land increased by 0.34%,1.37% and 0.22% per year from 2009 to 2016.Grassland,water and unused land were decreasing at a rate of 0.24%,0.04% and 0.27% per year.The land use forecast results of Kuche County in 2020 indicated that the area of highsensitivity and low-sensitivity areas in Kuche County had decreased to 2 458.92 km2 and 1 055.71 km2,and the sensitive area had been reduced from 7 312.59 km2 in 2009 to 7 268.87 km2 in 2016,and then decreased to 6 534.97 km2 in 2020.The area of insensitive area had been increased from 3 604.88 km2 in 2009 to 3 626.83 km2 in 2016,and then increased to 4 746.57 km2 in 2020.This study will provide reference for the sustainable use of land in Kuche County,and also provide new ideas for the dynamic simulation of regional land environmental impact.
引文
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[2]BIHAMTA N,SOFFIANIAN A,FAKHERAN S,et al.Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to simulate future urban expansion of the Isfahan metropolitan area,Iran[J].J Indian Soc Remote Sens,2015,43(2):407-414.
[3]KALNAY E,CAI M.Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate[J].Nature,2003,423:528-531.
[4] RILEY W J,MATSON P A.NLOSS:A mechanistic model of denitrified N2O and N2evolution from soil[J].J Soil Sci,2000,165(3):237-249.
[5]YAO F M,HAO C,ZHANG J H.Simulating urban growth processes by integrating cellular automata model and artificial optimization in Binhai New Area of Tianjin,China[J].Geocarto Int,2016,31(6):612-627.
[6]关中美,王雨村,牛海鹏.基于GIS的焦作市生态敏感性分析[J].河南理工大学学报(自然科学版),2009,28(1):61-66.
[7]庞莎,刘康,冀文慧.土地利用变化对延安市生态服务价值的影响[J].地下水,2011,33(1):154-157.
[8]欧阳志,王效科,苗鸿.中国生态环境敏感性及其区域差异规律研究[J].生态学报,2000,20(1):9-12.
[9]ROSSI P,PECCI A,AMADIO V,et al.Coupling indicators of ecological value and ecological sensitivity with indicators of demographic pressure in the demarcation of new areas to be protected:The case of the Oltrepo Pavese and the Ligurian-Emilian Apennine area(Italy)[J].Landscape and urban planning,2008,85(1):12-26.
[10]李东梅,高正文,付晓,等.云南省生态功能类型区的生态敏感性[J].生态学报,2010,30(1):138-145.
[11]LIU C M,ZHANG D.Temporal and spatial change analysis of the sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to meteorological infuencing factors in China[J].Acta geographica sinica,2011,66(5):579-588.
[12]韩贵锋,赵珂,袁兴中,等.基于空间分析的山地生态敏感性评价:以四川省万源市为例[J].山地学报,2008,26(5):531-537.
[13]何丹,刁承泰.重庆江津市土地利用变化及社会驱动力分析[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(2):24-26.
[14]彭保发,陈端吕,李文军,等.土地利用景观格局的稳定性研究:以常德市为例[J].地理科学,2013,33(12):1484-1488.
[15]国家环境保护总局.生态功能区划暂行规程[A].2002.
[16]王佳丽,黄贤金,陆汝成,等.区域生态系统服务对土地利用变化的脆弱性评估:以江苏省环太湖地区碳储量为例[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(4):556-563.
[17]王大鹏,王满堂,陈伟.台儿庄生态敏感性GIS评价[J].测绘科学,2012,37(1):64-66.
[18]林涓涓,潘文斌.基于GIS的流域生态敏感性评价及其区划方法研究[J].安全与环境工程,2005,12(2):23-26,34.
[19]杨志峰,徐俏,何孟常,等.城市生态敏感性分析[J].中国环境科学,2002,22(4):360-364.
[20]杨俊,解鹏,席建超,等.基于元胞自动机模型的土地利用变化模拟:以大连经济技术开发区为例[J].地理学报,2015,70(3):461-475.
[21]FITZPATRICK M,SMITH K,BELOUSEK D W,et al.The quantum cellular automaton as a Markov process[J].Chaos,solitons&fractals,1999,10(8):1375-1386.
[22]汪佳莉,吴国平,范庆亚,等.基于CA-Markov模型的山东省临沂市土地利用格局变化研究及预测[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(1):212-216.
[23]王耕,王嘉丽,龚丽妍,等.基于GIS-Markov区域生态安全时空演变研究:以大连市甘井子区为例[J].地理科学,2013,33(8):957-964.
[24]王友生,余新晓,贺康宁,等.基于CA-Markov模型的藉河流域土地利用变化动态模拟[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(12):330-336.
[25]胡雪丽,徐凌,张树深.基于CA-Markov模型和多目标优化的大连市土地利用格局[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(6):1652-1660.