基于GIS的干旱区绿洲县域土地利用生态风险分析及预测
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摘要
[目的]研究干旱区绿洲县域土地利用生态风险评价及预测。[方法]以新疆拜城县为例,ArcMap 10.3为技术支持,2009和2016年的遥感影像为信息源,构建了拜城县的综合性生态风险指数(ERI)并借助GIS进行空间插值,由此分析了拜城县土地利用生态风险动态演变以及不同等级的生态风险的空间分布特征。并通过马尔科夫预测模型预测拜城县2020年的土地利用结构变化,揭示土地利用结构的变化对新疆典型干旱区绿洲县域生态风险的影响。[结果]2009—2016年拜城县耕地和建设用地面积增加,林地、草地、水域和其他用地面积明显下降。通过预测所得,与2016年相比,2020年建设用地和其他用地面积明显增加,耕地、林地、草地和水域面积明显减少。2009年拜城县ERI为0.024,2016年增长为0.026,随着生态环境的持续恶化,2020年增长至0.031。[结论]在未来土地利用结构调整过程中,人们应加强保护环境的意识,在拜城县构建良好的生态用地格局,提高全县生态系统服务功能,降低人类活动对环境造成的不良影响。
[Objective] The research aimed to study the ecological risk assessment and prediction of land use in the oasis county of arid area. [Method]Taking Baicheng County of Xinjiang as the research object, under the support of ArcMap 10.3 technology, the remote sensing images from 2009 and 2016 as the information source. This article constructed the comprehensive ecological risk index(ERI) of Baicheng County and used the spatial interpolation method of ArcGIS to analyse the dynamic evolution of ecological risk of land use in Baicheng County and the spatial differentiation characteristics of different levels of ecological risk.The change of land use structure in Baicheng County in 2020 was predicted by Markov prediction model, and the ecological risk influence of the change of land use structure on oasis counties in typical arid areas of Xinjiang was revealed.[Result] The area of cultivated land and construction land were increasing from 2009 to 2016, the area of forestland, grassland, water and other land were decreasing significantly. Through forecasting, compared with 2016, the area of construction land and other land were increasing significantly in 2020, while the area of cultivated land, forestland, grassland and water were decreasing significantly.The ERI of Baicheng County in 2009 was 0.024, and increased to 0.029 in 2016, and with the continuous deterioration of the ecological environment, it will increase to 0.031 in 2020.[Conclusion] In the future adjustment of land use structure, people should strengthen their awareness of protecting the environment, build a good pattern of ecological land in Baicheng County, improve the ecosystem service function, and reduce the negative impact of human activities on the environment.
[Objective] The research aimed to study the ecological risk assessment and prediction of land use in the oasis county of arid area. [Method]Taking Baicheng County of Xinjiang as the research object, under the support of ArcMap 10.3 technology, the remote sensing images from 2009 and 2016 as the information source. This article constructed the comprehensive ecological risk index(ERI) of Baicheng County and used the spatial interpolation method of ArcGIS to analyse the dynamic evolution of ecological risk of land use in Baicheng County and the spatial differentiation characteristics of different levels of ecological risk.The change of land use structure in Baicheng County in 2020 was predicted by Markov prediction model, and the ecological risk influence of the change of land use structure on oasis counties in typical arid areas of Xinjiang was revealed.[Result] The area of cultivated land and construction land were increasing from 2009 to 2016, the area of forestland, grassland, water and other land were decreasing significantly. Through forecasting, compared with 2016, the area of construction land and other land were increasing significantly in 2020, while the area of cultivated land, forestland, grassland and water were decreasing significantly.The ERI of Baicheng County in 2009 was 0.024, and increased to 0.029 in 2016, and with the continuous deterioration of the ecological environment, it will increase to 0.031 in 2020.[Conclusion] In the future adjustment of land use structure, people should strengthen their awareness of protecting the environment, build a good pattern of ecological land in Baicheng County, improve the ecosystem service function, and reduce the negative impact of human activities on the environment.
引文
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[20] 贺胜柏.马尔柯夫预测模型及其实证分析[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2002(2):132-135.
[2] 李虹颖.新一轮土地利用总体规划中土地生态规划研究[D].重庆:西南大学,2011.
[3] 张飞,塔西甫拉提·特依拜,丁建丽,等.干旱区绿洲土地利用/覆被及景观格局变化特征:以新疆精河县为例[J].生态学报,2009,29(3):1251-1263.
[4] 蒙永胜,李琳,夏修国.新疆新型工业化、农牧业现代化与新型城镇化协调发展研究[J].新疆社会科学,2013(6):45-51.
[5] 亚库普·约麦尔.新疆地区农田土地整理的实践与思考[J].科技资讯,2017,15(4):112-114.
[6] 段少远.拜城县水能资源开发面临的问题及对策[J].新疆农垦科技,2013,36(8):42-44.
[7] 唐利华,张永福,刘小辉.干旱区河谷城市土地利用生态风险动态预测:以新疆伊宁市为例[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(3):240-245.
[8] 吴楠,张永福,李瑞.基于景观指数的干旱区河谷县域土地利用生态风险分析及预测[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(2):207-212.
[9] 吴文婕,石培基,胡巍.基于土地利用/覆被变化的绿洲城市土地生态风险综合评价:以甘州区为例[J].干旱区研究,2012,29(1):122-128.
[10] 程珍珍,张永福,范小晶,等.基于GIS干旱区绿洲县域土地利用生态风险分析及动态预测[J].安徽农业科学,2018,46(3):44-48,52.
[11] 王文杰,张永福,王慧杰.基于GIS干旱区绿洲县域土地利用变化生态风险分析:以新疆泽普县为例[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(6):216-220.
[12] 李钊,张永福,张景路.干旱区绿洲县域土地利用规划中土地生态安全预测:以新疆阿瓦提县为例[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(6):148-151,157.
[13] 李谢辉,谭灵芝.基于景观结构的渭河下游河流沿线区域生态风险分析[J].地域研究与开发,2009,28(6):100-105.
[14] 郭燕燕.快速城市化地区景观生态安全分析:以深圳市为例[J].测绘与空间地理信息,2016,39(12):127-131.
[15] 王俊智,张永福.干旱绿洲区土地利用生态风险分析及预测:以沙雅县为例[J].广东农业科学,2015,42(22):125-130.
[16] 康璇,王雪梅.基于景观格局的新疆渭干河-库车河三角洲绿洲的生态风险评价[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2017,45(8):139-146,156.
[17] 石浩朋.基于景观结构的城乡结合部区域生态风险分析:以泰安市岱岳区为例[D].泰安:山东农业大学,2013.
[18] 胡金龙.漓江流域土地利用变化及生态效应研究[D].武汉:华中农业大学,2016.
[19] 居玲华,石培基.基于Markov和GM(1,1)模型的土地利用结构预测[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2009,25(2):138-141,146.
[20] 贺胜柏.马尔柯夫预测模型及其实证分析[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2002(2):132-135.