基于混合模型的对外贸易可持续发展综合评价
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摘要
文章以可持续发展理论框架为出发点,结合对外贸易发展结构的特点,从对外贸易的规模、结构、效益、潜力、依赖性和技术进步6个维度选取了13个指标,构建了对外贸易可持续发展的综合评价指标体系。鉴于对外贸易灵活多变的显著特点,利用传统的熵权法计算出指标权重以消除指标间相关性的影响,并结合层次分析法(AHP)对各类指标的数值进行一致性检验以消除较大判断误差项对最终计算结果的显著性影响,最终运用评分结果集合成运算给出了混合模型形式,并尝试将该模型运用到沿海5省市(上海、江苏、浙江、广东和山东)对外贸易可持续发展的评价中,同时实现对评价指标和发展等级的高低排序。
In the framework of sustainable development theory as the starting point, with the integration of the development of foreign trade structure, this paper constructed the comprehensive evaluation of the sustainable development of foreign trade of index system with 13 indicators of six dimensions which includes scale, structure, benefit, potential, dependence and technical progress of foreign trade. In view of the significant features of foreign trade flexibility, this paper calculated the index weight in order to eliminate the influence of the correlation by using entropy method combined with the traditional analytic hierarchy process(AHP) to check the consistency of numerical indicators to eliminate large errors of judgment significantly affect,and then given the hybrid model with the synthetic operation of final results, and try to apply this model to five coastal provinces(Shanghai, Jiangsu,Zhejiang, Guangdong and Shandong) to evaluate the sustainable development of foreign trade, the evaluation index and the development level of the grade ranking.
In the framework of sustainable development theory as the starting point, with the integration of the development of foreign trade structure, this paper constructed the comprehensive evaluation of the sustainable development of foreign trade of index system with 13 indicators of six dimensions which includes scale, structure, benefit, potential, dependence and technical progress of foreign trade. In view of the significant features of foreign trade flexibility, this paper calculated the index weight in order to eliminate the influence of the correlation by using entropy method combined with the traditional analytic hierarchy process(AHP) to check the consistency of numerical indicators to eliminate large errors of judgment significantly affect,and then given the hybrid model with the synthetic operation of final results, and try to apply this model to five coastal provinces(Shanghai, Jiangsu,Zhejiang, Guangdong and Shandong) to evaluate the sustainable development of foreign trade, the evaluation index and the development level of the grade ranking.
引文
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[8]徐间伟.对外贸易可持续发展的TOPSIS评价方法[J].统计与决策,2015,(7).
[9]周健生,沙文兵.人民币汇率的价格传递效应:1995—2010[J].统计与决策,2012,(8).
[10]杜挺,谢贤健,梁海艳等.基于熵权TOPSIS和GIS的重庆市县域经济综合评价及空间分析[J].经济地理,2014,34(6).
[2]蒲艳萍,王玲.我国对外贸易可持续发展能力的综合评价[J].南京师范大学学报:社会科学版,2007,5(3).
[3]李明生,何天祥.区域对外贸易可持续发展综合评价[J].求索,2005,(2).
[4]谷志红,牛东晓,王会青.对外贸易可持续发展的评价指标体系及模型[J].国际商务,2005,(5).
[5]董春卫,印凡成,包君等.基于多层次熵权模型的行蓄洪区启用风险评价[J].中国农村水利水电,2016,(3).
[6]张宝友,黄祖庆.基于DEA的浙江省外贸可持续发展效率评价[J].国际经贸探索,2012,28(2).
[7]袁永友,刘建明.创建我国对外贸易可持续发展评价指标体系的思考[J].国际贸易问题,2004,(1).
[8]徐间伟.对外贸易可持续发展的TOPSIS评价方法[J].统计与决策,2015,(7).
[9]周健生,沙文兵.人民币汇率的价格传递效应:1995—2010[J].统计与决策,2012,(8).
[10]杜挺,谢贤健,梁海艳等.基于熵权TOPSIS和GIS的重庆市县域经济综合评价及空间分析[J].经济地理,2014,34(6).