基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的区域农业水资源系统恢复力评价
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摘要
区域农业水资源系统具有不可预期、自组织、非线性等特征,决定了对区域农业水资源系统恢复力评价具有一定的难度。以黑龙江省农垦红兴隆管理局12个国有农场为研究基点,选取DPSIR模型构建指标评价体系,采用模糊AHP-熵权法确定指标权重,结合TOPSIS评价方法对其农业水资源系统恢复力进行评价,利用ArcGis进行分区,结果表明:农业用水是影响是资源系统恢复力的核心驱动因子,进一步分析表明五九七农场水资源恢复力最强,红旗岭农场次之,双鸭山农场最弱。研究成果揭示了当地水资源系统恢复情况,为国内其他区域进行农业水资源系统恢复力研究提供一种研究模式。
Regional agriculture water resources system is unpredictable,self-organized,nonlinear,determining the evaluation of regional agricultural water resources system resilience has certain levels of difficulty.Taking twelve farms in Heilongjiang Land Reclamation Administration as research objects,through adopting the fuzzy AHP-entropy method to confirm the index weight,agricultural water resources resilience is evaluated combing TOPSIS method based on DPSIR model.Results show that the key factors impacting the water resources system resilience is utilizing agricultural water.Further analysis shows that the water resources resilience of Farm Wujiuqi is the best.Farm Hongqiling is weaker.Farm Shuangyashan is the weakest.Research reveals the recovery state of local water resources system resilience,and provides a research mode for evaluating regional agricultural water resources system resilience on other regions in China.
Regional agriculture water resources system is unpredictable,self-organized,nonlinear,determining the evaluation of regional agricultural water resources system resilience has certain levels of difficulty.Taking twelve farms in Heilongjiang Land Reclamation Administration as research objects,through adopting the fuzzy AHP-entropy method to confirm the index weight,agricultural water resources resilience is evaluated combing TOPSIS method based on DPSIR model.Results show that the key factors impacting the water resources system resilience is utilizing agricultural water.Further analysis shows that the water resources resilience of Farm Wujiuqi is the best.Farm Hongqiling is weaker.Farm Shuangyashan is the weakest.Research reveals the recovery state of local water resources system resilience,and provides a research mode for evaluating regional agricultural water resources system resilience on other regions in China.
引文
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[2]Holling C S.Resilience and stability of ecological systems.Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics,1973,7(4):1-23.
[3]商彦蕊,陈佳飞,张瑞清,等.农业旱灾系统恢复性评价思路与方法——以河北省邢台市为例[J].中国生态农业学报,2011,19(1):167-171.
[4]汪兴玉.黄土高原典型农村社会-生态系统适应性循环机制及对干旱的恢复力[D].西安:西北大学,2008.
[5]Comfort L K.Risk and Resilience:Inter-organizational Learning Following the Northridge Earthquake of 17January 1994[J].Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management,1994,2(3):157-170.
[6]于翠松.山西省水资源系统恢复力定量评价研究[J].水利学报,2007,(增刊):495-499.
[7]赵卓.GIS支持下的二松流域水资源系统恢复力评价[D].长春:东北师范大学,2009.
[8]Chang S E,Shinozuka M.Measuring improvements in the disaster resilience of communities[J].Earthquake Spectra,2004,20(3):739-755.
[9]王华.河流生态系统恢复评价方法及指标体系研究[D].上海:华东师范大学资源与环境学院,2003.
[10]张慧,张锦高.区域地质灾害恢复力及风险管理研究——以三峡库区为例[J].工业技术经济,2008,27(1):112-116.
[11]Yin Runsheng,Yin Guiping,Li Lanying.Assessing China's ecological restoration programs:What's been done and what remains to be done[J].Environmental Management,2010,45(3):442-453.
[12]Pearce D,Hamilton K,et al.Measuring sustainable development:progress on indicators[J].Environment and Development Economics,1996,1(1):85-101.
[13]王兵,张光辉,刘国彬,等.黄土高原丘陵区水土流失综合治理生态环境效应评价[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(20):150-161.
[14]胡永宏.对TOPSIS法用于综合评价的改进[J].数学的实践与认识,2002,32(4):572-575.
[15]张兵,邓卫.基于DPSIR模型的经济圈交通网络评价指标体系[J].华东交通大学学报,2011,28(4):7-13.
[16]于伯华,吕昌河.基于DPSIR概念模型的农业可持续发展宏观分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2004,14(5):68-72.
[17]M-AHP-熵权组合赋权法在垃圾渗滤液处理技术评价中的应用[J].环境工程学报,2010,4(11):2 455-2 460.
[18]梁薇.基于组合权重和TOPSIS的应急物流预案评价[J].中国商贸,2013,(4):134-136.
[19]雷勋平,吴杨,叶松,等.基于熵权可拓决策模型的区域粮食安全预警[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(6):233-239.
[20]徐美,朱翔,李静芝.基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的湖南省土地生态安全评价[J].冰川冻土,2012,34(5):1 265-1 272.
[21]王兵,刘国彬,张光辉,等.基于DPSIR概念模型的黄土丘陵区退耕还林(草)生态环境效应评估[J].水利学报,2013,44(2):143-153.