广东跨省流入人口缩减的演化格局及影响因素研究
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摘要
跨省流入缩减是广东人口迁移进程中的新现象。基于五普、六普和2015年1%人口抽样数据,本文分别刻画了广东2000—2015年省域和县市尺度跨省流入缩减演化格局特征,讨论了县市单元和典型案例城市省际流入缩减演化分异的成因机理。结论如下:①2010—2015年,广东跨省流入人口缩减已初见雏形,四川、湖北、河南和湖南等15省份来粤人口出现下降。②5年来县市尺度跨省流入缩减态势显著,省际流入缩减的县市比重高达84.09%,省际流入缩减演化格局中以流入扩张转流入缩减类型占据主导,其中省际流入较为活跃的珠三角和外围地市辖区开始出现流入缩减。③相比于省际流入持续扩张区,第三产业就业、人均财政支出、固定资产投资、外资占GDP比重及人口密度是省际流入扩张区发生流入缩减的负向抑制因素,而第二产业就业规模则是其正向促进因素。技术创新和公共服务是广州和深圳省际流入缩减分异的主要原因,东莞省际流入缩减与珠海省际流入扩张分别受外需疲软和宜人居住环境的影响。
The shrinkage of inter-provincial immigration is a new phenomenon in the migration of Guangdong province. Based on the fifth and sixth population census data as well as 1% population sample survey data in 2015, this paper respectively investigates the evolution pattern of inter-provincial immigration shrinkage on provincial and county scales in Guangdong province from 2000 to 2015, and discusses the causes of evolution difference in inter-provincial immigration shrinkage of counties and case cities. The conclusions are as follows:(1) From 2010 to 2015, the shrinkage of inter-provincial immigration in Guangdong has taken shape, and the size of migrating to the province from 15 other provinces, such as Sichuan, Hubei, Henan and Hunan, has declined, which went up in 2000-2010.(2) The trend of inter-provincial immigration shrinkage on county scale is significant in the past 5 years, and the proportion of counties with inter-provincial immigration shrinkage is as high as 84.09%. The type of changing from inter-provincial immigration growth into inter-provincial immigration shrinkage is dominant in the evolution pattern, and the inter-provincial immigration of the Pearl River Delta and peripheral districts, where the inter-provincial immigration was on the rise during 2000-2010, on the contrary, began to shrink in 2010-2015.(3) Compared with the counties of continuous growth in inter-provincial immigration during the two periods, the higher employment size of the tertiary industry, per capita fiscal expenditure, the share of fixed assets investment in GDP, the share of foreign investment in GDP, and population density, the lower the probability of changing from the type of interprovincial immigration growth to that of inter-provincial immigration shrinkage. However, the higher the employment size in the secondary industry, the greater the possibility of changing from the type of interprovincial immigration growth to that of inter-provincial immigration shrinkage. The shrinkage differentiation of inter-provincial immigration in Guangzhou and Shenzhen mainly depends on the gap in technological innovation and public service. The reduction of Dongguan's interprovincial immigrations and growth in Zhuhai's inter-provincial immigrations are respectively affected by the weak external demand and pleasant residential environment.
The shrinkage of inter-provincial immigration is a new phenomenon in the migration of Guangdong province. Based on the fifth and sixth population census data as well as 1% population sample survey data in 2015, this paper respectively investigates the evolution pattern of inter-provincial immigration shrinkage on provincial and county scales in Guangdong province from 2000 to 2015, and discusses the causes of evolution difference in inter-provincial immigration shrinkage of counties and case cities. The conclusions are as follows:(1) From 2010 to 2015, the shrinkage of inter-provincial immigration in Guangdong has taken shape, and the size of migrating to the province from 15 other provinces, such as Sichuan, Hubei, Henan and Hunan, has declined, which went up in 2000-2010.(2) The trend of inter-provincial immigration shrinkage on county scale is significant in the past 5 years, and the proportion of counties with inter-provincial immigration shrinkage is as high as 84.09%. The type of changing from inter-provincial immigration growth into inter-provincial immigration shrinkage is dominant in the evolution pattern, and the inter-provincial immigration of the Pearl River Delta and peripheral districts, where the inter-provincial immigration was on the rise during 2000-2010, on the contrary, began to shrink in 2010-2015.(3) Compared with the counties of continuous growth in inter-provincial immigration during the two periods, the higher employment size of the tertiary industry, per capita fiscal expenditure, the share of fixed assets investment in GDP, the share of foreign investment in GDP, and population density, the lower the probability of changing from the type of interprovincial immigration growth to that of inter-provincial immigration shrinkage. However, the higher the employment size in the secondary industry, the greater the possibility of changing from the type of interprovincial immigration growth to that of inter-provincial immigration shrinkage. The shrinkage differentiation of inter-provincial immigration in Guangzhou and Shenzhen mainly depends on the gap in technological innovation and public service. The reduction of Dongguan's interprovincial immigrations and growth in Zhuhai's inter-provincial immigrations are respectively affected by the weak external demand and pleasant residential environment.
引文
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[17]蔡昉.人口转变、人口红利与刘易斯转折点.经济研究,2010,(4):4-13.[Cai Fang.Demographic transition,demographic dividend,and Lewis turning point in China.Economic Research Journal,2010,(4):4-13.]
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[19]肖周燕.人口迁移势能转化的理论假说--对人口迁移推-拉理论的重释.人口与经济,2010,(6):77-83.[Xiao Zhouyan.Hypothesis on potential energy conversion of population migration in theory:Re-interpretation of the pushpull migration laws.Population&Economics,2010,(6):77-83.]
[20]于涛方.中国城市人口流动增长的空间类型及影响因素.中国人口科学,2012,(4):47-58.[Yu Taofang.Spatial-temporal features and influential factors of the China urban floating population growth.Chinese Journal of Population Science,2012,(4):47-58.]
[21]夏怡然,苏锦红,黄伟.流动人口向哪里集聚?-流入地城市特征及其变动趋势.人口与经济,2015,(3):13-22.[Xia Yiran,Su Jinhong,Huang Wei.Where the floating population go?:The characteristics and the changes of destination cities.Population&Economics,2015,(3):13-22.]
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(1)数据来源于广东省经济和信息化委员会2017年省产业转移工业园名单。
(2)为便于获取统计数据,此处广州为市域行政范围(含增城市、从化市),且按市域范围核算,广州仍为流入扩张转缩减区,此外,2014年2月,增城市和从化市撤市设区。
(3)数据来源:www.sohu.com/a/71845681_398908。
(4)此处计算为各市省际流入人口“上月月收入”平均值。
[2]邹湘江,吴丹.我国流动人口减少了吗?基于2015年1%人口抽样调查数据的分析.江西社会科学,2017,(5):233-242.[Zou Xiangjiang,Wu Dan.Is there a reduction in the number of floating population in our country?Analysis based on 1%population sample survey in 2015.Jiangxi Social Sciences,2017,(5):233-242.]
[3]杨传开,宁越敏.中国省际人口迁移格局演变及其对城镇化发展的影响.地理研究,2015,34(8):1492-1506.[Yang Chuankai,Ning Yuemin.Evolution of spatial pattern of inter-provincial migration and its impacts on urbanization in China.Geographical Research,2015,34(8):1492-1506.]
[4]于潇,陈新造.广东省流动人口典型化特征识别与启示.人口学刊,2016,38(6):27-36.[Yu Xiao,Chen Xinzao.Astudy on typical features of floating population in Guangdong Province.Population Journal,2016,38(6):27-36.]
[5]刘三林,吴华维,彭穗生.人口红利与经济增长:基于广东1987-2010年数据的分析.商业研究,2013,55(3):132-136.[Liu Sanlin,Wu Huawei,Peng Suisheng.Demographic bonus and economic growth:an analysis based on data from1987 to 2010 in Guangdong Province.Commercial Research,2013,55(3):132-136.]
[6]于文丽,蒲英霞,陈刚,等.基于空间自相关的中国省际人口迁移模式与机制分析.地理与地理信息科学,2012,28(2):44-49.[Yu Wenli,Pu Yingxia,Chen Gang,et al.Spatial analysis of the patterns and mechanism of inter-provincial migration flows in China.Geography and Geo-Information Science.2012,28(2):44-49.]
[7]田盼盼,朱宇,林李月,等.省际与省内流动人口空间分布及其影响因素的差异:以福建省为例.人口学刊,2015,37(6):56-67.[Tian Panpan,Zhu Yu,Lin Liyue,et al.Differences in the spatial distribution and its determinants between inter-and intra-provincial floating population:The case of Fujian province.Population Journal,2015,37(6):56-67.]
[8]刘颖,邓伟,宋雪茜,等.基于综合城镇化视角的省际人口迁移格局空间分析.地理科学,2017,37(8):1151-1158.[Liu Ying,Deng Wei,Song Xueqian,et al.Spatial pattern of interprovincial population migration from the comprehensive urbanization perspective.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(8):1151-1158.]
[9]刘望保,汪丽娜,陈忠暖.中国省际人口迁移流场及其空间差异.经济地理,2012,32(2):8-13.[Liu Wangbao,Wang Lina,Chen Zhongnuan.Flow field and its regional differentiation of inter-provincial migration in China.Economic Geography,2012,32(2):8-13.]
[10]邓羽,刘盛和,蔡建明,等.中国省际人口空间格局演化的分析方法与实证.地理学报,2014,69(10):1473-1486.[Deng Yu,Liu Shenghe,Cai Jianming,et al.Spatial pattern and its evolution of Chinese provincial population and empirical study.Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(10):1473-1486.]
[11]王桂新,潘泽瀚,陆燕秋.中国省际人口迁移区域模式变化及其影响因素--基于2000和2010年人口普查资料的分析.中国人口科学,2012,32(5):3-13.[Wang Guixin,Pan Zehan,Lu Yanqiu.China's inter-provincial migration patterns and influential factors:Evidence from year 2000 and 2010 population census of China.Chinese Journal of Population Science,2012,32(5):3-13.]
[12]蒲英霞,韩洪凌,葛莹,等.中国省际人口迁移的多边效应机制分析.地理学报,2016,71(2):205-216.[Pu Yingxia,Han Hongling,Ge Ying,et al.Multilateral mechanism analysis of interprovincial migration flows in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(2):205-216.]
[13]雷光和,傅崇辉,张玲华,等.中国人口迁移流动的变化特点和影响因素--基于第六次人口普查.西北人口,2013,34(5):1-8.[Lei Guanghe,Fu Chonghui,Zhang Linghua,et al.The changes in population floating and their influencing factors in China based on the sixth census.Northwest Population,2013,34(5):1-8.]
[14]刘晏伶,冯健.中国人口迁移特征及其影响因素--基于第六次人口普查数据的分析.人文地理,2014,29(2):129-137.[Liu Yanling,Feng Jian.Characteristic and impact factors of migration in China:Based on the analysis of the sixth census data.Human Geography,2014,29(2):129-137.]
[15]张耀军,岑俏.中国人口空间流动格局与省际流动影响因素研究.人口研究,2014,38(5):54-71.[Zhang Yaojun,Cen Qiao.Spatial patterns of population mobility and determinants of inter-provincial migration in China.Population Research,2014,38(5):54-71.]
[16]戚伟,赵美风,刘盛和.1982-2010年中国县市尺度流动人口核算及地域类型演化.地理学报,2017,72(12):2131-2146.[Qi Wei,Zhao Meifeng,Liu Shenghe.Spatial statistics and regional types evolution of China's county-level floating population during 1982-2010.Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(12):2131-2146.]
[17]蔡昉.人口转变、人口红利与刘易斯转折点.经济研究,2010,(4):4-13.[Cai Fang.Demographic transition,demographic dividend,and Lewis turning point in China.Economic Research Journal,2010,(4):4-13.]
[18]刘盛和,邓羽,胡章.中国流动人口地域类型的划分方法及空间分布特征.地理学报,2010,65(10):1187-1197.[Liu Shenghe,Deng Yu,Hu Zhang.Research on classification methods and spatial patterns of the regional types of China's floating population.Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(10):1187-1197.]
[19]肖周燕.人口迁移势能转化的理论假说--对人口迁移推-拉理论的重释.人口与经济,2010,(6):77-83.[Xiao Zhouyan.Hypothesis on potential energy conversion of population migration in theory:Re-interpretation of the pushpull migration laws.Population&Economics,2010,(6):77-83.]
[20]于涛方.中国城市人口流动增长的空间类型及影响因素.中国人口科学,2012,(4):47-58.[Yu Taofang.Spatial-temporal features and influential factors of the China urban floating population growth.Chinese Journal of Population Science,2012,(4):47-58.]
[21]夏怡然,苏锦红,黄伟.流动人口向哪里集聚?-流入地城市特征及其变动趋势.人口与经济,2015,(3):13-22.[Xia Yiran,Su Jinhong,Huang Wei.Where the floating population go?:The characteristics and the changes of destination cities.Population&Economics,2015,(3):13-22.]
[22]潘黎霞.对东部、西部地区固定资产投资与三个产业发展的实证分析.经济问题,2011,(9):44-48.[Pan Lixia.The empirical analysis of investment in fixed assets of Eastern and Western region and the development of three types of industries.Economic Problems,2011,(9):44-48.]
[23]段成荣.省际人口迁移迁入地选择的影响因素分析.人口研究,2001,25(1):56-61.[Duan Chengrong.Influencing factors of destination choice of China's inter-provincial migrants.Population Research,2001,25(1):57-61.]
[24]Elhanan Helpman,Antonio Rangel.Adjusting to a new technology:Experience and training.Journal of Economic Growth,1999,4(4):359-383.
[25]江永红,张彬,郝楠.产业结构升级是否引致劳动力"极化"现象.经济学家,2016,(3):24-31.[Jiang Yonghong,Zhang Bin,Hao Nan.Whether industrial upgrading leads to"polarization"of labor force.Economist,2016,(3):24-31.]
[26]周宗社.人力资本、劳动者权益与迁移意愿调查分析.中国劳动,2015,(14):19-24.[Zhou Zongshe.Investigate analysis on human capital,the rights of workers and the willingness of migration.China Labor,2015,(14):19-24.]
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(1)数据来源于广东省经济和信息化委员会2017年省产业转移工业园名单。
(2)为便于获取统计数据,此处广州为市域行政范围(含增城市、从化市),且按市域范围核算,广州仍为流入扩张转缩减区,此外,2014年2月,增城市和从化市撤市设区。
(3)数据来源:www.sohu.com/a/71845681_398908。
(4)此处计算为各市省际流入人口“上月月收入”平均值。