摘要
新世纪以来,国际资源性商品价格的普遍上涨和波动,对世界经济发展产生了重大影响。作为国际资源性商品市场中的“寡头”国家,中国面临“中国供给带动世界价格下降,中国需求带动世界价格上涨”的现象,严重影响中国的贸易利得和国民经济的平稳增长。国际资源性商品定价的实现、影响和调整机制及优化政策选择是本文要研究的核心问题。
本文从国际市场微观结构分析入手,运用历史研究、制度分析、数理模型、计量实证等方法,以引入贸易媒介环节的生产者-贸易媒介-消费者三分法分析框架为论文的主线,研究贸易商品及资源性商品的定价过程,贸易媒介的形成和转换,贸易媒介对定价的影响以及贸易媒介的优化选择。本文还研究中国资源性商品贸易媒介的形成和转换,并对其影响进行实证测度,进而提出中国参与国际定价的策略集。
论文共分为8章。第1章为导论,阐述选题背景和意义、核心概念、研究内容及篇章结构。第2章综述国内外资源性商品定价的相关文献。第3章从国际市场微观结构分析出发,提出了贸易媒介的范畴,构建了生产者-贸易媒介-消费者的三分法分析框架,并探讨了贸易媒介主要表现形式及影响定价的机理。第4章从国家和微观两个层面对资源性商品的市场结构进行了实证分析,将资源性商品的主要特征考虑到分析框架中,分析了国际资源性商品定价的实现过程,并以棉花和石油贸易为例分析了资源性商品贸易媒介的形成和转换。第5章从理论和实证两个层面探讨国内税对资源性商品定价的影响。第6章构建了最优石油国内税率模型和税制选择模型,探讨了资源性商品国内税的优化选择,并以中国的燃油税改革为例,分析国内税政策优化的政治动力学。第7章实证研究了中国资源性商品贸易媒介的形成、转换及其影响,分析了中国资源性商品的贸易市场结构,利用生存技术法测定了其最优规模经济量,还测定了中国稀土和焦炭出口贸易的市场势力。第8章从效率增进型和租金转移型贸易媒介视角给出了中国的参与策略集,同时还总结了论文的主要研究及结论,提出了进一步深入研究的方向。
论文的主要创新在于:(1)探讨了市场微观结构中贸易中介的作用机理,通过界定世界经济中国家/政府的单元行为体角色,构建了基于贸易媒介的三分法贸易商品定价分析框架,将贸易商品的定价过程分解为生产者-贸易媒介与贸易媒介-消费者两个环节,相应的买卖价差形成贸易媒介的收益,每一环节的价格决定都受到多种因素的共同作用。论文还在区分效率增进型和租金转移型两类贸易媒介的基础上,论述了贸易媒介影响定价的机理。
(2)从国家层面与微观层面研究资源性商品市场结构,发现二者之间存在多种多样的市场结构组合,国家资源性商品政策的有效性受到商品市场结构的影响,后者又受制于其最优规模经济,利用生存技术法测定的最优规模经济量为资源性商品政策选择提供了实证依据。
(3)从理论和实证两个层面确证了国内税影响资源性商品价格的有效性,证实了Bergstrom(1982)和OECD(2004)的假说。研究发现,国内税对国际价格有显著的负向影响,对贸易媒介和消费者的影响与市场结构相关。实证结果解释了美国、欧盟和日本实际石油国内税率的选择。由于能源利益集团的反对和消费者的敏感,美国的实际石油税率较低;石油公司和环保利益集团的支持推动欧盟和日本采取高石油税率政策。
(4)利用数理模型估计了石油进口“寡头”国家的最优税率,确证了包括中国在内的主要国家最优税率和实际税率的明显偏离,还通过数理模型给出了资源性商品国内税税制选择的判据。研究发现,欧盟的实际税率接近于所估计的最优税率,日本的实际税率明显高于最优税率,美国与中国的实际税率低于最优税率。对中国石油业税制选择的分析发现,从价税制能带来更高的消费者价格稳定性。
(5)对中国资源性商品贸易媒介及其影响的实证研究发现,虽然稀土和焦炭生产及贸易均高度分散,但却出现焦炭出口市场势力较强而稀土出口市场势力较弱共存的结果。其基本原因在于焦炭和稀土产业政策等虚拟贸易媒介作用的差异。论文从效率增进型和租金转移型两个视角提出了较全面的扩大中国资源性商品定价能力的策略集。
在未来的研究中,作者将进一步研究资源性商品定价中贸易媒介的转化形式和影响资源性商品定价的其他因素,进一步扩展已有模型设置,并针对具体资源性商品生产和贸易企业以及产业案例进行更微观、更细致地研究。
The world economy witnessed the universal commodity price rise and fluctuation and its deep influence over word economic development over the past few years. As an obligolistic nation in international commodity market, China is facing the coexisting dilemma of weak pricing power and obligolistic position, which greatly influences China's trade gains and balanced growth. The realization, adjustment mechanism and policy choice of international commodity pricing is this thesis's main issue.
Using the historical analysis , institutional analysis, mathematical analysis and econometrical methods, this thesis studies the pricing process, shaping and shifting of trade media, its influences over pricing and optimal choice of trade media based on producer-trade media-consumer's trichotomy analytical framework started with international market microstructure analysis. Still, this thesis pays attention to China's trade media shaping and shifting, and then empirically analyzes its influences; lastly strategy muster is put forward.
This thesis has eight chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the background, contents, core concept and structure of this thesis. The literatures of international commodity pricing are reviewed in Chapter 2. Chapter 3 poses the concept of trade media started with international market microstructure analysis, and then advances the producer-trade media-consumer's trichotomy analytical framework, and explores the mechanism of trade media's influence over pricing. Chapter 4 empirically analyzes the commodity market structure from the national and micro perspective, and integrates those features of international commodity market with above analytical framework thus exploring the commodity pricing process, and finally studies the shaping and shifting of commodity trade media based on cotton and petroleum trade case. In Chapter 5, this thesis theoretically and empirically studies domestic tax trade media's influence over commodity pricing. Chapter 6 explores the optimal tax rate and tax system trade media choice by mathematical model, and analyzes the political dynamics of domestic tax reform by China's fuel tax reform case study. Chapter 7 empirically analyzes the shaping, shifting and its influences of China commodity trade media, in which China's commodity trade market structure and optimal economies of scale are studied, and Chinese rare earth and coke export market power is also analyzed by econometric methods. In chapter 8, this thesis poses China's main pricing strategy from the perspective of efficiency-enhancing and rent-shifting trade media, and then concludes the main findings; lastly some further study suggestions are advanced.
The main innovation of this thesis includes five aspects. Firstly, this thesis explored trade intermediation's function mechanism, and advanced the producer-trade media-consumer's trichotomy analytical framework by defining nation as cell actors, thus pricing process of merchandise trade can divided into producer-trade media tache and trade media-consumer tache, the corresponding bid-ask spread being trade media's gains, which is the result of many factor's influence together. And by distinguishing efficiency-enhancing and rent-shifting trade media, this thesis analyzed the pricing mechanism of trade media.
Secondly, this thesis ascertained the market structure difference between national perspective and micro perspective, and found that there exists different market structure combination. The effectiveness of national policy is highly affected by micro commodity market structure, and the latter being constrained by its optimal economies of scale. So the optimal economies of scale result provide empirical evidence with commodity policy choice.
Thirdly, this thesis theoretically and econometrically confirmed the hypothesis posed by Bergstrom (1982) and OECD (2004), which means that domestic tax could negatively affect international commodity price, but the extent of its influence over pricing being correlated with market structure. The empirical result could explain the domestic oil tax rate choice of EU, U.S.A and Japan. Because of the opposition of energy interests group and the American consumer's sensitiveness, American actual tax rate is quite low, while EU and Japan's oil tax rate being the opposite just because of the strong support of energy interests group and environmentalist.
The Fourth is that this thesis estimated the optimal domestic tax rate of obligolistic nation, and then confirmed the departure between actual tax rate and optimal value, and also put forward the choice criterion of commodity tax system. The result shows that, EU's actual tax rate is close to the optimal value, and American tax rate is far lower than optimal value while Japan being the opposite. This thesis also found that ad valorem tax could more stabilized consumer oil price than specific tax in China.
Finally, this thesis empirically studied the shaping and shifting of China's commodity trade media and its influences. The empirical result shows that, there exist the coexisting phenomenon of rare earth's weak market power and coke's strong market power, even if the production and trade market structure is all competitive. The main reason is concerned with the difference between rare earth and coke virtual trade media function. And this thesis posed comprehensive commodity pricing strategy muster from the perspective of efficiency-enhancing and rent-shifting trade media respectively.
The author will go deep into the research in several aspects in future: exploring the different shifting form of trade media and the other factors influencing commodity pricing, further extending correlative mathematical model of this thesis, and studying those micro commodity production and trade firm and industry more particularly.
引文
[1]资料来源:转引自樊勇明(2001),第79页。
[2]资料来源:斯特兰奇(中译本),第30页。
[3]资料来源:斯特兰奇(中译本),第130页。
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