摘要
随着经济的快速发展,突发公共事件发生的频率越来越高,危害后果也越来越惊人。只有建立起针对突发公共安全应急安全体系,才能及时、有效地实施应急救援,减小公共事件灾害带来的危害。应急案例知识库系统是以信息技术为支撑,以公共安全科技为核心,针对突发公共事件的保障技术系统,是对应急决策过程进行辅助支撑的重要工具。应急案例知识库系统的建设在应急管理体系中是一项基础性工作,它对于建立和完善功能齐全、统一指挥、运转高效、反应灵敏的应急机制,预防和应对事故灾难、自然灾害、社会安全事件和公共卫生事件,减少突发公共安全事件造成的损失具有重要意义。本文基于GIS和应急案例知识库系统的研究,构建了应急案例知识库系统的体系结构,深入研究了应急案例的表达、选取和修正模型,设计建立了河南省监狱应急案例知识库系统。完成的工作和创新点主要包括：
1、本文以应急决策支持系统的理论为基础,对应急决策流程进行了分析,设计了基于案例的应急决策流程。然后建立了应急案例知识库系统体系结构,并对其功能进行了设计。重点总结了案例应用的关键技术,包括应急案例的时空表达,基于时空关系的应急案例选取,基于时空相似性的应急案例修正,应急案例的评价,应急案例和的系统学习,并把前三项作为本文研究的重点内容。通过对应急案例知识库系统关键技术的分析,明确了案例对于应急决策的支撑作用,利用案例可以提高应急决策的科学性,缩短决策的时间。
2、分析了突发事件的演变过程,并建立了应急案例的时空关系模型。在总结了应急案例的生成和构建流程之后,提出了一种结构化多维栅格应急案例时空表达模型,并建立了相应的存储结构。通过这种方法实现了应急案例的综合表达,将案例时空属性特征和非时空属性特征进行了统一管理和表达,可以更加全方位的描述应急案例,同时也为之后的空间案例推理建立了基础。
3、针对应急案例时空表达模型,建立了基于时空关系的应急案例选取模型。这种模型针对应急决策对于空间分析应用的需求,从案例的时空属性特征和非时空属性特征各个方面进行了抽取、类比、分析运算,定量的给出了新突发事件和源案例组的相似程度,使案例的选取重用有定量的标准可依。这种模型能够更好的保证案例选取的科学性和准确性,实现快速科学的选取。
4、分析了应急处置方案修正特点、功能和作用,提出了基于多级多段广义算子和时空相似性的应急处置方案修正方法。在案例修正时,利用分级分段的结构,对整个突发事件的应急过程进行分步修正,同时结合时空相似性系数,对一组而非某一个历史案例的解决方案进行修正。用这种修正方法可以形成更加科学完备的突发事件应急案例。
With the rapid development of the economy, the accidents occur more and more frequently, and their harm is greater and greater. We have to establish the Emergency Cases Knowledge Base System to help people effectively and minimize the harm of the accidents. The Emergency Cases Knowledge Base System is a kind of technical system which is based on security and information technology, and it is an important tool which supports the decision-making process. Emergency Cases Knowledge Base System's establishment is a kind of basic work, which has a very important meaning of preventing natural disasters, accidents, and security affairs. According to the research on the GIS and the Emergency Cases Knowledge Base System, this paper establishes the structural framework of The Emergency Cases Knowledge Base System, researches into the expression method, the selection model, and the modification of cases deeply, and finishes the design and development of Prison Emergency Cases Knowledge Base System of Henan Province. The achievements and new ideas are as follows:
1. Based on the theories and methods of decision-making analysis, this paper analyzes the emergency decision-making process. This paper establishes the structural framework of The Emergency Cases Knowledge Base System, and designs the functions of it. Then this paper summarizes the key technique of applying the cases, including the expression of the cases, the selection of the cases based on the space-time relationships, the modification of the cases, the evaluation of the cases, and the study of the cases. By the analysis of the key technique, we make it clear that the cases can support the emergency decision-making, improve the scientificalness of it, and shorten its time.
2. This paper analyzes the evolvement process of the emergency incident, and establishes the space-time relation model of the cases. After summarizing the creation process of the cases, this paper designs an optimized space-time model to express the emergency cases and sets up its storage structure. This model realizes the management and the expression of the emergency cases, and it expresses the space-time attribute and the non-space-time attribute, describes the cases better, and establishes the basement of the case-based reasoning.
3. Based upon the expression model, this paper establishes the selection model of the emergency cases. For the demands of the spatial reasoning applications, the model analyzes the space-time characteristic attributes and the non-space-time attributes of the cases, gives the comparability between the new case and the previous cases in the database quantificationally, which can be the standard of reuse. With this model, the user can select the case faster, and this model can guarantee the veracity of the case's selection.
4. This paper analyzes characteristics and functions of the modification of the cases, and puts forward a method of emergency case's modifying, which is based on the generalized operator and the space-time comparability. With the space-time comparability, this method modifies emergency process step by step, and it also modifies a group of cases to obtain the solution of the accidents. In this way, the solution can be more perfect.
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