摘要
中资大型商业银行在股改上市之后,公司治理机制趋于完善,经营管理水平取得显著提升,资本金充裕。受益于中国经济的持续快速发展,中资银行业的利润规模和增速在全球银行业中排名靠前,初步具备了海外扩张的基础和实力。美国次贷危机和欧洲主权债务危机造成发达国家银行业遭受严重冲击,银行估值水平下滑。在后金融危机时代,西方国家普遍降低了外资银行的进入门槛,为中资银行海外扩张提供了难得的窗口期。近年来中资银行海外扩张取得了一些进展,境外分支机构数量不断增加。但是相对于汇丰、花旗等国际化程度领先的全球性大银行,中资银行境外资产占比、境外机构的盈利能力、业务综合化和本土化程度等方面还有不小的差距。
中资银行境外机构的发展关系到中资非金融企业走出去战略和人民币国际化战略能否顺利推进,关系到中国能否从“世界工厂”变成“金融大国”,关系到中国在全球的影响力能否进一步的增加。同时非金融企业走出去也为中资银行海外扩张提供了丰富的跨国金融服务需求,人民币国际化有助于增强中资银行境外机构的市场竞争力。中资银行与非金融企业相互扶持结伴出海,对于中国经济更好的融入全球经济一体化进程,实现中国经济的崛起和腾飞具有长远的战略意义,激发了本文的研究动机。
以往文献大多着重于银行海外扩张的动因、外资银行进入对东道国的影响、外资银行进入东道国方式以及在东道国的机构形式等方面进行探讨,较少深入、全面、系统、量化的考察中资银行海外扩张的现状特征、中资银行海外扩张的区位选择影响因素、资本市场对于中资银行海外扩张的反应和中资银行境外机构的实际经营状况。对于中资银行海外扩张的研究甚至落后于实践的发展。
本文在总结、借鉴国内外学者关于银行海外扩张相关研究成果的基础上,围绕中资银行海外扩张这个主题,重点研究以下四个问题：(1)通过构建国际化程度衡量指标,量化分析当前中资银行海外机构的现状、特征、中资银行内部国际化程度的排名,以及中资银行与国际化水平领先的全球性大银行之间的差距。(2)中资银行海外扩张面临区位选择问题,本文采用多种计量经济学模型实证分析中资银行海外扩张区位选择决策的影响因素,通过对比验证得出稳健的结论,以此指导中资银行海外扩张区位选择决策。(3)采用事件研究法,分析资本市场投资者对于中资银行海外扩张行为抱有什么样的预期、是否看好银行海外扩张的前景、中资上市银行海外扩张行为对其股票市值产生什么样的影响。(4)采用财务分析法,分析中资银行走出去之后,海外机构的经营业绩表现如何、对银行的整体盈利能力及抗风险能力带来多大贡献、是否在东道国市场具有竞争力。
通过对上述四个问题的研究,本文得出如下结论：
中国银行是当前中资银行海外扩张的翘楚,其境外资产、收入、净利润及员工数量占比都显著高于另外四家中资国有控股银行,中国工商银行和交通银行位居第二梯队,中国建设银行排名第四,中国农业银行国际化程度排在最后。近年来中资银行境外机构数量总体攀升的同时,从境外机构的地理分布上看,在亚洲以外地区的一级金融机构数量增长速度快于亚洲地区,境外机构主要集中在亚洲尤其是港澳地区的局面有所缓解,全球化分散程度逐步提高。从收入构成来看,中资银行及其境外机构过于依赖传统信贷业务,营业收入中利息收入占比过高,非利息收入占比较低,业务的综合化程度明显低于花旗、汇丰等国际性程度领先的银行。
由于中资银行海外扩张历史不长以及境外机构数据搜集整理难度较大等因素制约,以往文献对于中资银行海外扩张区位选择的研究大多停留在理论分析阶段,很少采用计量模型实证分析。本文有别于以往学者的研究,通过广泛的数据搜集,采用计量经济学模型实证分析中资银行海外扩张区位选择的影响因素。实证研究表明中资银行海外扩张区位选择决策受多种因素的共同影响。中资银行海外扩张优先选择进入国际金融中心,并且明显具有追随客户的动机,中国与东道国的双边贸易额和中国对东道国的直接投资,对银行海外扩张区位选择具有正向引导作用。东道国较高的经济开放程度也有利于吸引中资银行进入。中资银行海外扩张还存在追求利润动机,倾向于到盈利机会多,总税率较低的国家展开经营。此外为降低海外机构的风险,中资银行倾向于到政府管理效率高、法制保障有力的东道国经营,有意识的避免进入货币趋于贬值的国家和地区。实证研究还发现,中国北京与东道国首都的地理距离、中国与东道国的文化差别程度、东道国人均国内生产总值、东道国的GDP增长率、征信信息深度指数对于中资银行海外扩张区位选择决策不构成显著影响。
采用事件研究法分析中资银行海外并购公告发布前后银行股票价格相对与市场指数的累计超额收益率表明,资本市场投资者对中资银行海外并购前景的预期受目标方银行估值溢价水平、并购公告前后的经济景气程度、被并购方主营业务是否属于传统信贷业务等方面的影响。从总体上看,除了建设银行收购美银亚洲、招商银行收购永隆银行,由于溢价过高和并购正处于金融危机期间而不被投资者看好以外,近年来其他中资银行海外并购在事件期都取得了显著地正向累计超额收益,可见资本市场投资者对中资银行海外扩张抱有乐观预期,认可中资银行的海外扩张战略。
通过对比分析中资银行母行与境外主要分支机构的财务指标,以及中资银行境外分支机构与东道国本土主流银行的财务指标变动趋势发现：在2005年-2012年,中资银行境外机构盈利能力较为稳健,甚至在部分年份,一些境外分支机构的净资产收益率高于同期国内母行的净资产收益率。境外分支机构的债务偿还能力指标均处于可控范围内,风险应对能力较强。从发展能力上看,近年来中资银行的权益增长率和总资产增长率始终保持在较高水平,即便是在金融危机期间,也仅是稍有下滑。从收入构成上看,近年来中资银行营业收入中净利息收入占比总体呈下降趋势,手续费和佣金收入占比稳步上升,中资银行业务综合化程度正在提高。但是中资银行的综合化经营水平、产品的多样化程度与花旗、汇丰等国际性大银行相比,仍有不小的差距。中资银行境外机构的业务构成与母行类似,以传统信贷业务为主,业务的综合化程度与东道国主流银行还有较大的差距。
在理论分析和实证研究的基础上,结合中资银行海外扩张的内外部环境,本文提出如下政策建议：(1)中资银行要抓住国际金融市场变革的宝贵机会,从长期战略角度出发,加快海外扩张步伐,提高境外资产和收入占比,降低资产、收入过于集中在国内的风险,增强银行收入和盈利在经济周期不同阶段的稳定性。(2)海外扩张优先选择进入主要的国际金融中心。学习全球领先银行先进的管理经验和技术。重点布局与中国双边贸易密切、中国对外直接投资较多的东道国或地区,充分满足实体经济贸易、投资产生的真实金融服务需求,将银行自身的海外扩张战略与中资企业走出去战略结合起来,相互扶持共同发展。(3)结合新设和并购两种形式加快完善境外机构网络建设。并购对象的选择要兼顾资产质量、双方机构网络互补性、并购成本经济性的统一,确保高速发展过程中的风险可控,最大程度发挥并购整合的协同收益。(4)以客户为导向,针对东道国市场的实际情况以及自身竞争优势,增加业务种类的多样性,提供符合市场需要的金融产品和服务。建立国内外分支机构统一互联、安全高效的业务处理系统,增强不同分支机构、业务种类间的协同效应。加强国际化人才的培育、吸引和储备,提高银行的专业化经营能力。(5)中国金融监管部门要加大中资银行海外扩张政策方面的鼓励和支持,增强与东道国监管部门的沟通与协调,维护中资银行在东道国的合法权益。
After Chinese large commercial Banks listed on the share reform, tend to improve corporate governance, management level achieved significantly improved, capital abundant. Benefited the sustained and rapid development of economy, the Chinese banking sector profit growth and scale in the top of the global banking industry, with the foundation of overseas expansion and strength. U.S. subprime crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis caused developed banking sector suffered a severe blow, bank valuations decline. In the post crisis era, western countries generally reduces the foreign banks to enter the threshold, for Chinese Banks to expand overseas provides a rare window period. In recent years, some progress has been made in Chinese Banks to expand overseas, the number of overseas branches increasing. But relative to the large global banks such as Citigroup and HSBC, Chinese funded bank Overseas assets ratio, profitability of foreign institutions, the degree of Business diversification and localization, there is a big gap. Development of Chinese banks overseas institutions, related to Chinese non-financial corporate strategy of going out and RMB internationalization strategy can Promote smoothly, Determine whether China can from the "world factory" to "financial power" and whether China can increase of influence in the world. At the same time, non financial enterprises go out also provides a rich multinational financial service demand for Chinese Banks to expand overseas, the internationalization of the RMB will help to enhance the market competitiveness of Chinese bank overseas institutions. Chinese Banks and non-financial companies support each other to expansion overseas,to Chinese economy better integration into the global economic integration process, the Chinese economic rise and development has a long-term strategic significance, inspire the motivation of this article research.
Most of the previous literature focused on motivation of Banks' overseas expansion, the impact of foreign bank entry on the host country, the foreign banks entry mode as well as institutional forms in the host country. Less in-depth, comprehensive, systematic and quantitative study Chinese bank overseas expansion characteristics, Chinese banks to expand overseas location choice factors, the reaction of the capital market for Chinese Banks to expand overseas and the actual operating performance of Chinese Banks to foreign institutions. For Chinese Banks to expand overseas study even behind the development of the practice.
In this paper, based on the summary and reference to domestic and foreign scholars on the banks to expand overseas related research results, around the theme of Chinese Banks to expand overseas, focuses on the following four questions:(1) by constructing the internationalization degree index, quantitative analysis the current status of Chinese bank overseas agency, characteristics, Chinese banks internal internationalization degree ranking, as well as Chinese banks and international level leading global large banks gap.(2) Chinese Banks to expand overseas face the problem of location selection, in this paper, using a variety of econometric model empirical analysis on the influence factors of Chinese Banks to expand overseas location selection decision, solid conclusions are verified through the comparison, and to guide Chinese Banks to expand overseas location choice decisions.(3) using event study, the analysis for capital market investors have what kind of expectations and behavior on Chinese Banks to expand overseas, Whether or not optimistic about the prospect of banks to expand overseas, what impact will it have on the stock market value for overseas expansion of Chinese listed Banks.(4) using the Du Pont financial analysis method, analysis of Chinese banks to go out, overseas organizations operating performance, how much contribution to the overall profitability and anti-risk ability on Banks, whether competitive in the host country market.
Through the study of the above four issues, this paper draws the following conclusion:
Bank of China is currently leading Chinese banks to expand overseas, its foreign assets, revenue, net profit and number of employees accounted for were significantly higher than the other four Chinese state-owned banks, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Bank of Communications ranked the second echelon, China Construction Bank ranked fourth, the degree of internationalization of Agricultural Bank of China came in last.
In recent years, the number of Chinese bank overseas institutions overall rise at the same time, from the point of view of geographical distribution, the number of foreign institutions outside Asia region growing faster than financial institutions in Asia, foreign institutions mainly concentrated in Asia especially in Hong Kong and Macao has eased, globalization dispersion degree increased. From the point of income structure, Chinese Banks have relied too much on credit business, the ratio of interest income in operating income accounted is too high, non-interest income is low, the diversification of business significantly lower than in degree of the leading international Banks such as citigroup, HSBC.
Due to Chinese Banks to expand overseas history is not long and face greater difficulty of foreign institutional data collection and other factors, the previous literature on factors affecting the location choice of overseas expansion of Chinese banks mostly focus on theoretical analysis, empirical analysis of econometric models are rarely used. This article is differs from previous studies by other scholars, through the extensive data collection, using the empirical econometric model analysis the factors affecting the location choice of Chinese Banks to expand overseas. Empirical study results show that the Chinese Banks to expand overseas location selection decision is jointly influenced by many factors. Chinese banks overseas expansion priority choice to enter the international financial center. Chinese banks overseas location choice obviously have to follow customer motivation, the bilateral trade volume between China and the host country, China's direct investment to the host country, has positive effect on banks' overseas location. The high degree of economic openness of host country is also conducive to attract Chinese banks. Chinese Banks to expand overseas there is also the pursuit of profit motive, tend to enter more profit opportunities,,lower total tax rate of the country to start operations. In addition, in order to reduce the risk of overseas institutions, Chinese Banks tend to enter high government efficiency, strong legal protection of the host country, consciously avoided entering the currency tends to depreciate in countries and regions. Empirical research also found that, the geographical distance between China Beijing and the host country's capital, the extent of cultural differences between China and the host country, the host country's per capita gross domestic product, the host country's GDP growth rate, depth of credit information index, for Chinese Banks to expand overseas location selection decision does not constitute a significant effect. Event study analysis Chinese Banks' overseas M&A bank stock price relative to the market index before and after the announcement, the cumulative excess yields indicates that the capital market investors in Chinese Banks overseas M&A outlook by the target bank premium valuation levels, the merger announcement of economic cycle, whether acquiree's main business belongs to the influence of traditional credit business, etc. Overall, in addition to the China Construction Bank acquire Bank of America (Asia), China merchants bank acquire wing lung bank, as the high premium and acquisition is in during the financial crisis and not be valued by investors, other Chinese Banks' overseas m&a in recent years in the event period have been significantly positive cumulative excess return, showing that capital market investors optimistic expectations on Chinese funded banks to expand overseas.
Through the contrastive analysis of Chinese Banks to mother line and main branches overseas financial indicators, as well as overseas branches of Chinese Banks and the host country local financial indicators evaluation trend of mainstream Banks found:in2005-2012, Chinese Banks overseas institutions profitability is relatively stable, even in a few years, the return on equity of some overseas branches is higher than the same period of return on net assets of the domestic head office. Debt paying ability and risk response ability indicators of overseas branches are in a controllable range. From the development point of view, in recent years, Chinese bank equity growth rate and total assets growth rate has remained at a high level, even during the financial crisis, it is only a slight decline. From the view of income structure, the ratio of operating income net interest income is downward trend, fee and commission income ratio increased steadily, Chinese funded commercial banks integrated degree is increased. But the integration of Chinese bank management level, product diversification degree compared with big international Banks such as citigroup, HSBC, there is still a big gap. The income structure of Chinese Banks's overseas branches is similar to domestic institutions, give priority to with traditional credit business,.The degree integration of overseas business is to be improved.
Based on theoretical analysis and empirical research, combined with the overseas expansion of Chinese funded banks and external environment, the paper proposed the following policy recommendations:(1) Banks should seize the valuable opportunity to reform the international financial markets, from the perspective of long-term strategy to accelerate the pace of overseas expansion, improve the overseas assets and income ratio, reduce the risk of assets, income, too focused on domestic, increase bank revenue and earnings at different stages of the economic cycle stability.(2)Overseas expansion preference into a major international financial center. Learning the world's leading Banks advanced management experience and technology. The focus of the layout of the bilateral trade and Chinese closely, foreign direct investment more China host country and area, fully meet the real economy trade, investment real financial service demand, the bank's overseas expansion strategy and Chinese enterprises going out strategy to combine, mutual support and common development.(3)Combined with the new establishment and M&A to improve the overseas agency network. Target selection should take into account the asset quality, the network of institutions, M&A unified complementary economic costs, ensure that the risk control of high-speed development process, maximize the synergy benefits integration.(4) Customer oriented, according to the actual situation of the host country market and its competitive advantage, increase the diversity of business types, to provide to meet the needs of the market for financial products and services. Set up branches at home and abroad of unified interconnection, safe and efficient business processing system, enhance the synergistic effect between different branches, business types. Strengthen the internationalized talents' cultivation, attraction and reserves, improve the professional management ability of the bank.(5) China financial supervision departments should intensify Chinese banks overseas expansion policy to encourage and support, strengthen communication and coordination with the host supervision department, safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese Banks in the host country.
引文
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