中国商业银行区域信贷配给研究
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摘要
信贷配给是商业银行信贷投放过程的一种常态,表现为借款者的信贷资金需求不能全部被满足。古典经济学家认为信贷配给仅是因受到外部冲击或监管部门管制时的出现的暂时现象,而新凯恩斯主义经济学家认为当信贷市场均衡时仍会发生信贷需求未能出清的现象。现在,经济学者几乎已经达成一致:信贷配给是一种长期均衡的现象。
     目前,全球依然处于经济金融化、经济全球化和金融全球化持续发展的阶段,且融资方式仍然是以银行业信贷投放的间接融资方式为主,但随着中国金融体系不断完善健全,以资本市场的债券、股票为主的直接融资比例逐步上升,将会发生直接融资逆转的情况。2009年,为应对美国次贷金融危机,中国推出4万亿的政府投资计划,因此政府加大了对商业银行信贷投放规模的直接干预,导致2009年出现“天量放贷”的状况。这项政策的实施虽然在一定程度上减轻了世界经济危机对中国经济的冲击,但是信贷资金向国家基础设施和各级地区大型项目等的集中投放,加剧了我国信贷资源向政府主导项目、国家控股企业的大量聚集,导致了中小企业、乡镇企业面临融资困难的窘境,致使我国信贷市场处于典型的政府干预下的非均衡信贷配给状态,且具有逐步加深的趋势。
     在此基础上,国家东、中、西及东北地区战略规划的推行、利率市场化的启动、巴塞尔Ⅲ协议的分阶段实施、影子银行规模的迅速成长、货币政策中介目标的转换,使笔者认为有必要理清我国金融体制改革的方向,为商业银行可持续经营提出合理性意见和建议。因此,笔者立足于中国信贷市场,对处于不同经济发展水平区域中的商业银行信贷配给进行实证研究,分析得出影响商业银行信贷配给程度差异的影响因素,以此为商业银行提出合理的信贷配给实施意见,指导我国商业银行在不同区域信贷市场中合理分配信贷资源,同当地经济协调发展,以此提高中国商业银行的综合竞争力。
     本文首先阐述了信贷配给现象产生的经济背景,界定了信贷配给的核心概念,并对整篇文章的逻辑脉络进行了梳理,与此同时,笔者结合长期在大型商业银行信贷管理部门的实际工作经验,以及平日在信贷工作中对信贷配给的思考,制定出整篇文章的技术路线图,并提出本文预期的理论创新和可能存在的不足之处。第二章文献综述通过对区域经济发展理论、金融发展理论、信贷配给理论的阐述,结合众多学者对信贷配给与区域经济发展关系的研究结论,笔者从金融正、负功能的影响出发,对信贷配给的形成机制进行初步探究。第三章重点对中国商业银行区域信贷配给的现状进行了综合的分析。在对中国不同时期东部、中部、西部、东北等四大区域经济发展水平、产业结构、城乡发展等情况差异化分析的基础上,以十六家上市商业银行为研究对象,对中国银行业的信贷配给状况进行统计分析。在此基础上,第四章归纳出影响中国商业银行信贷配给程度的四大影响因素,即国家政策影响因素、市场结构影响因素、银行业自身经营和非银行金融机构等。第五章以商业银行的经营特殊性为切入点,结合利率市场化改革、巴塞尔协议Ⅲ、影子银行等金融改革因素,通过建立相应数理模型,来研究利率市场管制与放开情况下及巴塞尔协议实施后的中国商业银行信贷配给机制。最后一章以金融可持续发展观为指导理念,基于上述章节的研究结果,为中国商业银行区域信贷配给政策的制定和实施提出意见和建议,最后,本文为中国商业银行与区域经济的可持续协调发展构建出政策建议框架。
     本文的创新点主要有:一是基于对中国上市商业银行信贷配给现状的分析,归纳出影响中国商业银行区域信贷配给产生的主要因素,并对各因素进行综合解析;二是通过构建数理模型,论证在利率市场化、巴塞尔Ⅲ协议实施后的信贷配给程度变化方向,尤其是在政府对信贷配给实施干预的情况下,商业银行应该如何协调与地方政府的关系,使其更具竞争力;三是利用银行统计数据,分别对一家大型商业银行和一家中型商业银行东、中、西、东部等四大区域的信贷配给程度及发展趋势进行实证分析,并得出相应结论。
     虽然本文力争对中国商业银行信贷配给的产生机理、影响因素、机制构建等方面进行较全面、较深入的研究,但由于有限的数据资料和研究时间,本文仍存在以下几点不足,待续完善:一是缺乏对于国外先进同业的利率市场化环境下的客户群体分析,缺少可以借鉴的样本;二是对于巴塞尔协议对于商业银行的全流程运营产生的深远影响还没有分析到位;三是本文的实证分析样本量选取不足。
Credit rationing is a normal process of commercial bank credit. The performance ofcredit rationing is the credit capital requirements of the borrower can’t be satisfied.Classical Economics treat the credit rationing as a temporary phenomenon which is underthe influence of the external shocks or the control of regulatory authorities, while NewKeynesian Economics point out that the credit demand is still not clearing, even thoughthe credit market is in balance. Nowadays, the economists almost reach an agreement:The credit rationing is a phenomenon of long-term balance.
     At present, the world is still in the stage of sustainable development in theeconomic-financial, the economic globalization, as well as the financial-globalization.The financial system of China is still in the way of the indirect financing given by thebanking sector credit. As the constantly development and improvement of Chinesefinancial system, the proportion of direct financing which is based on the bound andstock in capital market has been gradually increasing, and thereof the direct financingreversal occurs. In2009, China launched a4trillion government investment plan, inresponse to American Subprime Mortgage Financial Crisis, that the direct intervention toincrease the number of credit, and finally led to the “astronomical lending”. The majorinvestment in people's livelihood, infrastructure, and environmental protection areasfurther exacerbated our credit resources to the government-led projects and state-ownedenterprises. In the meanwhile, the small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as thetownship enterprises, faced the problem of financing difficulties and were in a state ofuntypical non-equilibrium credit rationing status under government intervention, and thesituation has gradually deepened trend.
     Based on the above, coupled with the national strategic planning of east-mid-westand northeast region, the officially enforcement of the interest rate market, the phasedimplementation of the Basel III, the rapidly expand of the shadow banking, the amount ofsocial financing seen as Monetary Policy targett, I believe that, it is necessary to sort outthe development direction of Chinese financial system reform in order to put forwardreasonable suggestions and advices for the sustainable management of commercial bank.Therefore, as for the credit market in China, this paper will research on the commercial bank credit rationing at different levels of regional economic development, analysisimpact of factors that makes commercial bank credit rationing different, and offerreasonable suggestions for the implementation of credit rationing, which could be as aguidance of China's commercial banks rational allocation of credit resources in thedifferent areas, with local economic development, in order to improve the overallcompetitiveness of China's commercial banks.
     There are six chapters in this paper. The First chapter will focus on the economicbackground of the credit rationing phenomenon, and give the definition of the coreconcepts of credit rationing. In this chapter, we will have an overview of the whole paper,and raise the questions about the credit rationing in our practical work to develop thetechnology roadmap of the entire article. It will point out a theory innovation andinadequacies expected in this article as well. The Second chapter will describe thereferences about the theory of regional economic development and the financialdevelopment, the theory of credit rationing, the relationship between credit rationing andeconomic development, and credit rationing and economic development literature. And itwill analyze the credit rationing mechanism in view of both posive and negive functions.Chapter3will focuse on a comprehensive analysis of the status of Commercial Bank ofChina regional credit rationing. It analysis the differences of economic development,industrial structure, urban and rural development in different periods of the Four Regions.Taking the16listed commercial banks as objects, this paper will statistic and analyze thecurrent situation from the aspect of Four Regions, firm size, industry production, thedifference between urban and rural. Chapter4will conclude four facts which influencemechanism of Chinese commercial bank in the regional credit rationing, which are thenational macroeconomic policy level, regional market structure, banks own managementoperation and other non-bank financial institutions. Chapter5will start with theparticularity of commercial banks, and study the put in of the credit, and point out theinfluence of the scale of social financing on the regional economic development,including the shadow banking. in the process of interest rate reform, combined with theChinese commercial bank ‘s implementation of the Basel II, it will set up a theoreticalmodel, to study the credit rationing mechanism in the case of control and release of theinterest rate market, as well as the rate rationing mechanism under Basel II implementation. The last Chapter will be guided by the philosophy of financialsustainable development commercial. Giving the strategic development advice for theregional credit rationing policy of commercial banks, it will also improve the frame ofthe policy recommendations.
     Innovation of this paper are: Firstly,based on analysis of the status of ChineseListed Commercial Banks, Commercial bank of China regional credit rationinginfluencing factors resolve; Secondly, it build mathematical models to demonstrate thedegree of credit rationing direction of change in the interest rate market, Basel IIIimplementation, especially in the case of the implementation of the intervention of thegovernment credit rationing, commercial banks should be how to coordinate therelationship with the local government; Thirdly, it uses the internal data of commercialbanks, empirical analysis of the degree of credit rationing and development trend of thefour regions of the two commercial banks.
     Although this paper strive to do more comprehensive and in-depth study. Due to thelimited data and research time, there are some shortcomings in this paper: Firstly, there isthe lack of customer analysis based in an advanced foreign interbank interest rate marketenvironment, and the lack of reference samples Secondly, there is inadequate analyse ofthe Basel’s far-reaching implications for the whole process operators of commercialbanks. Thirdly, the selection of the empirical analysis samples is insufficient.
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