摘要
如何解释不同国家和不同地区之间经济发展水平的差异,即为什么有的经济体的人均产出水平远远高于其他经济体,一直是宏观经济学研究的一个重要课题。经济学家很早就意识到拥有好的“制度”的国家,例如一国的制度安排能够有效地将经济外部性内部化、明确的界定产权和减少政策扭曲,会拥有更多的物质资本和人力资本投资,并且这些要素投入能够更有效的生产出更多的产出。然而在关于制度、制度变迁对长期经济增长影响的研究中,制度经济学虽然强调制度是决定经济增长的关键因素,但不同的学者对好的“制度”的定义存在不同的看法,制度经济学一直缺乏一个关于长期经济增长的完整理论框架;20世纪90年代以来经济增长理论虽然在理论模型和实证研究中取得了长足进展,但由于在实证研究中对制度因素进行定量测度存在很大的困难,“制度变量”并没有被引入到经济增长模型中。
中国是世界上唯一一个通过渐进式经济体制改革成功建立市场经济体制的国家。与其他前社会主义国家激进的经济转轨政策不同,中国经济体制改革具有双轨并行的制度格局和“帕累托改进”性质的渐进式改革两大基本特征,因此可以对中国经济体制改革过程中各省市经济结构在时间维度上的相对进步和与其他地区相比的相对差异进行定量测度,并以此作为衡量中国各省市制度变迁进程的制度变量。中国改革开放近三十年来的实践为我们理解制度变迁在经济增长中的作用提供了不可多得的实证样本。
本文通过考虑由计划经济向社会主义市场经济转型的经济体制改革过程对中国经济增长的影响来尝试将制度因素引入经济增长模型之中,并使用计量经济学研究方法对1978-2005年中国制度变迁进程与地区之间和城乡之间经济发展不平衡的关系进行探讨,为中国近年来的地区和城乡经济发展不平衡问题提供一个合理的“制度”解释。本文的研究一方面能够为在进一步改革中保证“效率”的同时兼顾“公平”、消除中国日益扩大的地区差距和城乡差距提供思路,另一方面也有助于丰富制度与经济增长关系的实证研究成果,为制度经济学和经济增长理论研究提供了新的实证支持。
本论文的主要创新性工作包括:
①对中国1978-2005年时间段内各地区经济结构在时间维度上的相对进步和与其他地区相比的相对差异进行了定量测度,并以此作为衡量中国各省市制度变迁进程的制度变量。与其他对中国制度变迁进程和经济市场化的定量研究相比,本文使用相对指数的概念同时在时间维度和空间维度上定量测度中国各省市的制度变迁过程,既避免了测度全国范围内时间序列上历年的市场化进程面临的数据样本量不足以支撑实证研究的问题,又解决了测度某一年各省市的市场化进程差异后历年数据不可比的问题。本文随后的实证研究发现在时间维度和空间维度上制度变迁过程的差异是中国经济体制改革过程中地区之间和城乡之间经济效率差异和经济发展不平衡的重要原因,并且制度变迁的不同方面对经济发展不平衡的影响也存在差别,财政金融领域的经济体制改革进程远远落后于非国有经济发展和对外开放进程,农村地区的土地产权制度改革在上世纪80年代中期完成家庭联产承包责任制改革后基本处于停滞状态。
②通过考虑经济体制改革对中国经济增长的影响来尝试将制度因素引入新古典经济增长模型,构建了一个包括人力资本和制度变量的扩展索罗模型,并以此为基础考察中国各省市经济增长的条件β收敛现象和城乡经济发展不平衡问题。相关实证研究表明本文建立的计量经济学实证模型与中国经济体制改革以来的宏观经济运行情况相吻合,只有考虑了中国经济体制改革过程中的制度变迁因素,才能解释其他国家经济增长过程中普遍存在的地区经济增长β收敛现象在中国没有出现的原因,并对经济体制改革以来中国城乡经济发展不平衡问题的日益恶化作出合理的解释。
③在经济增长理论基础上构建了一个用于研究中国城乡经济发展不平衡的城乡两部门经济发展模型,将城乡之间前一期的产出水平差异引入了讨论城乡差异的实证模型之中,建立起一个研究中国城乡经济发展不平衡的动态实证模型。与通常的看法不同,对该模型的实证研究表明以建立社会主义市场经济为目标的经济体制改革不是城乡差距扩大原因,无论是农村经济还是城市经济都从非国有经济发展和对外开放进程中获得了发展,现阶段城乡差距日益扩大的主要原因是计划经济时期遗留的制度障碍和城乡之间的经济分割,突出表现为城乡之间的劳动力和资本流动不畅,以及财政、金融等领域的城市化倾向。
④建立了中国1978-2005年完整的分省市宏观经济运行数据库,并使用了先进的计量经济学面板数据(Panel Data)分析方法进行实证研究。使用分省市面板数据进行研究一方面扩大了可以获得的观测样本点,另一方面有效解决了在经济增长模型中遗漏地区资源禀赋、地理位置这类重要变量的影响,从而得到较为可靠的模型估计结果。此外,本文还使用了一阶差分广义矩估计方法解决了动态面板数据模型中可能存在的滞后因变量与扰动项相关的问题。充分的数据收集整理工作和合理的计量经济学估计方法选择保证了本文实证研究结果的可靠性,为解释现实经济现象提供了可靠保障。
An important issue of Macro-economic is to explain the differences of economic development level between different countries or different regions, that is, why some economies have much higher per capita output than others. Economists had long been aware of that the country has good“institution”, such as a country’s institutional arrangement can effectively internalize economic externalities, clearly defined property rights and reduce the policy distortions, will have more material and human capital investment, and these inputs to be more effectively produce more outputs. But in the study of the impact of institution and institution changes to long-run economic growth, although the institutional economics emphasizes the institution is the key factor which is decision the long-run economic growth, there is a big bifurcation in definition a good institution, the institutional economics is still lack a complete theoretical framework about long-run economic growth. Since the 1990s the economic growth theory has made considerable progress both in theoretical model and empirical research, but due to the difficulty about measurement institution in empirical research,“institution variables”has not been introduced in economic growth model.
China is the only country which successfully establishes socialistic market economy through a gradual reform in the world. Difference with USSR and the former socialist countries in Eastern Europe, which adopt a radical economic transition policy, economic system reform in China has two basic characteristics, which are two-track parallel system pattern and gradual reform with property is Pareto Improvement. So we can quantitative measurement the relative progress in time dimension and relative difference compared with other regions of China's provinces in the process of economic reform. China's practices in reform and opening policy over the past 30 years give us a rare real demonstration sample to understand the role how institution change impact economic growth.
This paper considers the economic system reform impacting on the economic growth in China, and attempts introducing the institutional factor in economy growth model. Using Econometric method, this paper researches the relationship between China’s institution change and economic inequality in the period from 1978 to 2005. This research will give a reasonable“institutional”explain for the regional differences and urban-rural differences problem in China. One the one hand, this research can provide ideas that ensure "efficiency" and“fairness”at the same time, eliminate the regional differences and urban-rural differences. On the other hand, this paper enriches the demonstration research about the relationship between institution and economic growth, provides a new demonstration to institutional economics and economic growth theory.
The main innovation works in this thesis include:
①This paper measure the relative progress in time dimension and relative difference compared with other regions of China's provinces in the period from 1978 to 2005. The measure results can be used as the institution variables to express the process of institution change in each province after economic reform. Compares with other quantitative research about institution change and marketization in China, this paper use the conception of relative index to measure the process of institution change both in time dimension and spatial dimension. On the one hand, using data from provincial level avoid the small sample problem that using national level time series data will be up against. On the other hand, using panel data can solve the problem that measuring marketization yearly makes the difference years data could not be compared. The subsequent research in this paper found that the difference of institution change process in time dimension and spatial dimension is the key reason which produces regional and urban-rural economical inequality in China. The different aspect of institution change has differently impact to economical inequality. The reform in finance and government expend is fall behind the institution change in enterprise marketization and openness. The reform of rural land property right institution is stagnant after the reform of household responsibility system.
②This paper bases on the textbook Solow model, considering the effect of the reform to the economic growth in China. An augmented Solow model that includes accumulation of human capital and institution variables has been established to investigate the conditionalβconvergence of Chinese cross- province economic growth and the rural-urban inequality in China. The following research using econometrics approach indicates that the model establishing in this paper can reflect the Operation of macro-economy movement. When we include the institution change of China in the model, theβconvergence which can be observed in many other countries will appear in China and the rural-urban inequality can be explained logically.
③Based on the economic growth model, a rural-urban two-sector model has been established to study the rural-urban inequality in this paper. The rural-urban two-sector model is a dynamic model, which the lagged dependent variable is on of the independent variables. The following research finds that the reform to establish socialism market economy has not relation with rising of rural-urban inequality. Both the rural economy and urban economy obtain benefit from enterprise marketization and openness. The enlargement of rural-urban inequality is the result of the institution obstacle left from the planned economy and the economic division between rural economy and urban economy. The main factors baffling the development of rural economy include the difficulty of labor and capital flow and the urban-biased economic policies in finance and government expend.
④We establish an integrated database about Chinese provinces economies in 1978-2005. Econometric analysis of panel data has been used in this paper. On one side, province-level data enlarge the sample size. On the other side, panel data analysis allow for differences in the aggregate production function across economies. In addition, first-order difference GMM has been used in our research to solve the problem in dynamic panel data model that the lagged dependent variable is correlated with the compound disturbance. The sufficient data collection and rational econometric approach guarantee the dependability of the result.
引文
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