摘要
决策是人类与生俱来的一项基本能力,人们通过决策活动认识和改造世界。决策广泛存在于人们的日常生产生活活动,大到国家的宏观决策,小到个人行为的决策无不涉及到判断、选择、预测等复杂的认知过程和心智计算。由于决策环境的复杂性和不确定性以及人类思维的不精确性和认知的有限性决定了决策活动的不确定性常态。采用语言形式的信息来描述偏好信息比较符合人类思维的模糊性和不确定性,有利于决策者把握事物的真实状态和减轻决策者的认知压力。因此,基于语言信息的决策研究已成为近年来决策科学界一个新的焦点,得到了突飞猛进的发展,并取得了丰硕的研究成果。但目前的研究无论在理论方法研究还是在实际应用研究尚不完善,值得进一步深入研究。同时,随着社会的发展以及研究的深入,常常需要更加深刻地刻画世界的不确定本质,因而如何发展能更加符合人类思维的不确定性特征的、更加准确反映出决策者真正意愿的非确定(模糊)语言信息来更加真实地反映客观实际情况以及如何将模糊语言信息有效的集成融合以真实反映决策者认知的体现是语言决策极为核心的主题。基于此,本论文针对语言决策开展和完成如下研究工作：
(1)针对纯语言决策问题,系统研究不同粒度的语言术语集中不同类型的语言信息(异质语言变量)的运算规则,提出用于集结异质语言信息的异质纯语言加权平均算子,异质纯语言加权调和算子,依赖型异质纯语言有序加权平均集结算子以及优先权型异质纯语言加权算子。在此基础上,提出一种简单实用的异质纯语言群体多准则决策方法并通过实例分析该方法的有效性和可行性。
(2)针对多类型语言决策问题,系统研究各种类型的语言信息(语言变量,不确定语言变量,三角模糊语言变量和梯形模糊语言变量)的语言距离测度,进而，提出一种泛化的融入决策者决策态度的广义语言混合加权距离测度,并分析该距离测度的性质及特例。在系统分析以距离测度思想为代表的TOPSIS决策方法的基础上,利用所提出的广义语言混合加权距离测度,提出一种考虑个体决策态度的群体多类型语言TOPSIS决策方法,该方法主要特点在于考虑了个体决策者的决策个性,即允许采用所偏爱的语言表达信息,允许反应其决策态度,因而降低了决策压力,增加了群体决策的柔性,有利于决策结果的真实性和合理性。同时,利用语言距离测度实现不同类型的语言信息融合。
(3)针对以两两对比形式表达偏好的不确定语言偏好关系的群体决策问题。研究不确定语言偏好信息的共识性与一致性等基础特性,分别提出不确定语言偏好信息的共识性测度与一致性测度模型。在此基础上提出一种集结不确定语言偏好信息的集结算子,即基于共识性与一致性双重协同诱导的有序加权集结(C2-IULOWA)算子,将偏好信息的共识性能信息与一致性能信息融入到集结算子中参与信息集结,使得集结结果更加科学合理。进而,给出一种基于不确定语言偏好信息的直接群体决策方法。
(4)针对决策者因模棱两可的主观不确定性,不能采用确切的语言信息进行判断的决策问题。将直觉模糊思想与理论引入语言信息表达,提出直觉模糊语言变量概念,使决策者在使用语言信息更加轻松真实地表达自己的观点的同时,更加细腻地反映决策者认知的不确定性与模棱两可性。进而,基于卢卡西瓦茨三角模和三角余模给出直觉模糊语言变量的基本运算规则,接着提出用于集成直觉模糊语言信息的直觉模糊语言算术加权集结算子,直觉模糊语言有序加权集结算子和直觉模糊语言混合加权集结算子等。此外,将直觉模糊信息熵测度推广到直觉模糊语言环境中得到直觉模糊语言信息的直觉模糊熵和交叉熵测度。最后基于直觉模糊熵和交叉熵测度提出一种考虑准则区分度和准则间相关度的集成定权的直觉模糊语言群体多准则决策方法。
(5)针对决策者不能简单的用单个语言值来表达其知识而犹豫于多个取值的决策问题。结合模糊集理论最新研究成果犹豫模糊集,提出犹豫模糊语言变量概念,进而提出犹豫模糊语言加权集结算子,犹豫模糊语言有序加权集结算子,犹豫模糊语言混合加权集结算子等。进一步地,研究动态犹豫模糊语言加权平均集结算子。在此基础上提出了一种动态犹豫模糊语言群体多准则决策方法,拓展和丰富了语言决策理论和方法。
(6)将本研究所得模糊语言决策理论综合应用于电子购物网站的电子服务质量评估问题。首先构造一套较为实用的且方便多消费者群体共同参与的电子质量服务评估体系。并利用其对淘宝、京东商城、亚马逊和凡客四家知名电子购物网站进行多消费者群体共同参与电子服务质量评估。
Decision making is inherent ablities of human and human utlize it to recognize and reform the world. Decision making prevail in our daily works and lives which refer to judgment, selection or prediction etc with our recognizing procedure and mental computing, it include not only the macroscopic decision of nations but also the individual behavioral decision. Due to the facts that complex and uncertain decision environment and the imprecise human mentality and the limitied human perception determine the uncertain normality of decision making activities. The linguistic decision making allows decision makers express their opinions with linguistic valures rather than numerical numbers, which are more approaximting the human perceptions and then both enhance the rationality and qualities of decision making and reduce their cognitive burdens in the assessments process. Thence, the linguistic decision making is becoming a hot research topic in recent years. Although many invaluable and significant contributions have been made, there still are a lot of questions needing been resolved. Meanwhile, with the development of the society and the requirement of further research, characterizing in depth the uncertain essence of world is necessary. So, how to develop some non-deterministic (fuzzy) linguistic information, which can approaximt the uncertain human perceptions and refelect precisely the genuine opinions of decision makers, is a central topic. Based on which, the dissertation conducted and completed the works as follows:
(1) With respect to the pure linguistic decision making problems, the basic operational laws of linguistic varables which are different types and their values from linguistic terms sets with different granularities are intensively inversitagted, some heterogeneous pure linguistic aggregation operators used to aggregate linguistic information are presented, include the heterogeneous pure linguistic weighted averaging operator, the heterogeneous pure weighted harmonic ageraging operator, the heterogeneous pure linguistic depented ordered weighted averaging operators and the heterogeneous prue linguistic priorities aggregation operator. Then, a heterogeneous pure linguistic group multi-critera decision making method based on the proposed heterogeneous pure linguistic operators is developed to accommodate to the different granular and different types linguistic information. The effectiveness and the praticalness are verified by an illustration example.
(2) With respect to the multi-types linguistic decision making problems, the linguistic distance measures of different types linguistic variables is investigated, and then some generalized linguistic hybrid weigthed distance mesures between linguistic variables vectors, uncertain linguistic variables vectors, triangular linguistic variables vectors and the trapezoidal linguistic variables vectors are proposed, their some properties and special cases are discussed. On the basis of the systermic analiysis of the TOPSIS decision making methodology, ultilizes the proposed linguistic distance measure, we presented a group multi-types linguistic TOPSIS method which can refelect the individual decision attitudes. The main advantages of the proposed method are that it can permit decisiom makers express freely their individual decision attitudes and provide their opinions with different types of linguistic information and thus allivate the decision pressure and enhance the flexibility of decision making. In addition, the proposed method provides a way to fuse the linguistic information with deifferent types.
(3) With respect to group decision making problems with uncertain linguistic preference relations, some basic properties of uncertain linguistic preference information such as consensus and sonsistency are invesitegated, a consensus measure and a consistency measure are proposed and their some desirable properties are analized. Based on the results, we presented an aggregation operator to aggregate uncertain preference information, called the consensus and consistency co-induced uncertain linguistic ordered weighted averaging (C2-IULOWA) operator, which merge the consensus and consistency information into the aggregation process and make the aggregated results more scientific and reasonable. Furthermore, we developed a direct group decision making method with uncertain linguistic preference information.
(4) With respect to the problems that decision makers can not express their opinions with definite linguistic information. Merging the advantages of intuitionistic fuzzy ideas into linguistic variables, we proposed the concepts of intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic variables to more exquisite elicit the uncertainties of the vagueness of decision makers's cognitive process. On the baisis of the Lukasiewicz T-normsand T-cnorms, we defined the basic operational laws of intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic variables. And then, we presented some intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic aggregation operators, such as intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic weighted averaging operator, intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic arithmatical averaging operator, intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic ordered weighted averaging operator, and intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic hybrid weighted averaging operator and disussed briefly their desirable properties. Furthermore, based on the intuitionistic fuzzy entropy measure and the cross-entropy measure, we presented a group multi-criteria decision making method with intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic information, in which the intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic entropy measure and the cross entropy measure is utilized to determined the criteria weights, and the intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic arithmatical averaging operator is used to aggregate the the criteria values and opinions take forms of intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic information, in addition, the effective and practicle of the developed method is verified by a illustration example.
(5) With respect to the problems that decision makers can only hesitantly express their opinions with multiple linguistic values rather the single linguistic value. Injecting the ideas of hesitant fuzzy into linguistic variables and presented hesitant fuzzy linguistic variables to model the hesitancy and undetermination of the decision makers'opinions, on the basis of the theory of hesitant fuzzy sets, some operational laws of hesitant fuzzy linguistic variables are defined. To synthesize hesitant fuzzy linguistic information, some hesitant fuzzy linguistic aggregation operators are presented. In addition, considering to the fact that hesitant fuzzy linguistic we further proposed some dynamic hesitant fuzzy linguistic aggregation operators. Finally, a dynamic hesitant fuzzy linguistic group multi-cirteria decision making method is developed and verified by a numerical example.
(6) Comprehensively utilizing the investigated results to the electronic service quality assessment of the electronic business websites, deveopled a practical methodology of electronic service quality assessment which facilitate to the heterogeneous group consist of different custormer goups. Furthermore, the electronic service quality of four China's notable the electronic business websites are assessed by the developed methodology.
引文
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