摘要
改革开放以来,我国国民经济总量迅速跃升,经济发展的重心已逐渐由总量提升向发展方式转变上转移。产业升级作为促进经济发展方式转变最重要的途径,已上升至国家战略的高度,产业升级的影响开始展现在国民经济的各个方面。与此同时,人口规模庞大的国情让我国一直面临着十分严峻的就业形势。随着产业升级进程的不断加快,我国劳动力就业状况势必会发生巨大的变化。然而,国内学界一方面对产业升级的内涵还存在着争议,学界、官方媒体常常将产业升级与产业结构调整、产业结构转型升级等词汇混淆使用,另一方面也缺少将产业升级作为就业影响的背景和变量来开展定量研究。本文试图从对产业升级内涵的界定出发,研究产业升级不同层次内容对就业产生的影响,建立国民经济整体产业升级和制造业产业升级对就业影响的模型,并进行实证分析,从而得出在产业升级下促进就业的规范性政策建议。
本文研究的主要内容分为八个部分：第一,绪论,对研究背景、意义、目的、关键问题、思路、方法、结构和创新等内容进行介绍；第二,概念界定和文献综述,对产业升级和劳动力就业的理论依托和国内外对二者关系的研究现状进行评述,更进一步地是对产业升级内涵进行重新界定,并以此得出产业升级三个层次内容对就业影响的路径；第三,产业发展对劳动力就业的影响,回顾建国以来我国产业发展历史阶段和主要特征,并结合就业弹性,对我国总体、产业间、地区间的国民经济产出对就业的拉动效果进行研究,同时以柯布道格拉斯生产函数为基础,建立产业升级第一层次内容对就业影响的实证模型；第四,产业结构高级化对劳动力就业的影响,在对就业结构变动的基本趋势、产业结构与就业结构偏离度进行总体和地区间比较分析的基础上,提出产业结构高级化对就业的正负效应,并引入产业结构高级化的衡量变量,建立涵盖产业升级第一、二层内容对就业影响的实证模型；第五,产业价值链升级对劳动力就业的影响,从全球价值链的视角对产业升级第三层内容的实质、特征及衡量方法进行研究,并分析我国产业价值链升级的现况和困境,提出产业价值链升级中劳动力配置的级差和劳动力素质变化,最终引入产业价值链升级衡量变量,建立起涵盖产业升级完整三个层次内容对就业影响的实证模型。第六,制造业产业升级对就业影响的实证研究,结合相关衡量指标,对制造业产业发展的总体情况、结构变动情况和价值链升级情况进行了大量的定量研究,并建立制造业产业升级对就业影响的模型,进行实证研究；第七,基于产业升级对就业影响的政策建议,分别从产业层面和劳动力市场层面提出了确保劳动力就业稳定前提下的产业升级对策和产业升级下促进就业增长的对策建议；第八,结论,对本文研究结论、创新点、不足和进一步研究的问题进行了总结与评述。
本文整体产业升级的实证基于1978-2011年时间序列数据,而制造业产业升级的实证则基于2000-2011年制造业30个行业的面板数据。本文通过“宏观-中观-微观”与“整体-局部”相结合的研究视角,逐层建立模型进行实证分析,得出产业升级对就业影响的主要结论有三个方面：
第一,从模型拟合的整体效果看,产业产出增长对就业产生正向促进效应,但促进效应在逐年减弱；产业结构高级化对就业总量产生负面影响,其中,三次产业结构变动的方向效果较为显著,而结构变动速度的影响效果不明显；以技术效率为衡量的产业价值链升级对就业能够带来创造效应,虽然价值链跃升中的劳动力级差能够减少原有行业的就业需求,但技术效率的提升能够刺激新兴产业的出现和发展,弥补技术对劳动替代所减少的就业岗位。
第二,从依次添加产业升级内容的模型变化效果看,产业产出增长对就业影响系数在减小,甚至可能为负值；单从产业结构变动的角度看,能够促进就业的增加,但在附加了产出增长和价值链变量下,产业结构变动对就业影响的效果变为负,表明随着国民经济的发展和产业价值链向高端环节跃升,三次产业间结构变动对就业产生的影响最终变为负面；以技术效率提高为标志的产业价值链升级能够从总量上对就业增加产生显著的促进作用。
第三,在制造业的实证中,制造业整体产出水平的增长、产业结构向“中等人均资本存量”部门倾斜、产业价值链的技术效率提升都能够显著地增加制造业就业总量,而制造业的资本化可能对就业造成损失。其中,“中等人均资本存量”制造业部门具有较高的产值占比增长率和就业弹性,应成为制造业产业升级优先选择行业。
在以上研究结论的基础上,本文提出在产业层面,我国应继续发挥劳动密集型产业的优势,在选择好产业升级的优先目标基础上,将产业升级与产业地区间转移相结合,不断加快我国产业价值链升级步伐,同时要注重对中小企业和新兴行业的政策扶持,将产业升级对就业所产生的负面影响降至最低。在劳动力就业层面,要进一步降低劳动力流动成本,不断缩小劳动力收入差距,通过多种途径加大劳动力素质培训,并不断完善劳动力就业保障体系,使劳动力就业能够在产业升级进程中实现稳定增长。
Since the reform and opening up, China's total economy quickly jumped to the second position of the world, when China has been beginning to focus on the change of development mode from GDP. Industrial upgrading as transformation of the most important ways to promote economic development has risen to the height of the national strategy, which will affect all aspects of the national economy. At the same time, the national conditions of large-scale population forces our country facing severe employment situation. With the accelerating process of industrial upgrading, China's labor force is bound to change dramatically. However, on the one hand, the connotation of industrial upgrading is controversial, academia, official media often identity industrial upgrading with industrial restructuring, transformation and upgrading of industrial structure etc., with the other hand, the research of impact of industrial upgrading on employment in model and empirical research is lack. This paper attempts to describe the path of different levels of industrial upgrading impacts on employment, starting from the definition of the connotation of industrial upgrading, to establish the models of the overall industrial upgrading and manufacturing industry upgrading impact on employment with an empirical analysis to arrive at normative policy recommendations to promote employment in the industrial upgrading.
In this paper, the main content is divided into eight parts:First, Introduction. To introduce the content of the research background, meaning, purpose, key issues, ideas, methods, and structure and innovation points. Second, Definition and literature review of industry upgrading and labor employment theory and the latest research results. It is more important to redefine the industrial upgrading connotation, and drawn the paths of impact of the three levels of the industry upgrade on labor force employment. Third, The impact of industrial development on labor employment. With recalling the historical stage since the founding of China's industrial development and the main features, combined with the employment elasticity to stimulate the effect of the national economic output on employment by China's overall industrial, regional composition, this chapter established an empirical model of the impact of the first level of industrial upgrading on employment based on Cobb-Douglas production function. Fourth, The impact of the industrial structure shifting on labor employment. On the basic of the research on the trend of the change in the structure of employment, industrial structure and employment structure deviates degree from the comparative analysis of overall and regional, this chapter discussed the positive and negative effects of industrial structure shifting on employment, and established an advanced model of impact of industrial upgrading on employment with measurable variables of industrial structure shifting, which covered the first and second content of industrial upgrading. Fifth, The impact of industry value chain upgrading on labor employment. For the substance of the third layer of the connotation of industrial upgrading, this chapter analyzed the characteristics and measure research and the current situation and dilemmas of China's industrial upgrading from the perspective of the global value chain, as well as the differential configuration and changes in the quality of the labor force, and eventually we established one more advanced model of industrial upgrading on employment with measurable variables of industrial value chain upgrading which covered the complete three levels contents of industrial upgrading. Sixth, the empirical study of impact of manufacturing industry upgrading on employment. Combining with the relevant measure of the overall development and structural changes and value chain upgrading of the manufacturing industry, this chapter established an empirical model of the impact of manufacturing industry on employment. Seventh, The policy recommendations. On the basic of the research conclusion, this chapter put forward a proposal from both of the industry the labor market to ensure that the promotion of employment growth in the industrial upgrading. Eighth, The conclusion. This chapter drew a conclusion of the study, and induced the innovation points and insufficient and further research summarizes and comments.
The empirical study of the overall industrial upgrading was based on1978-2011annual time-series data, as the manufacturing industry upgrading study was based on the panel of30manufacturing industries in2000-2011. Combination with the "overall local" perspective by using the "macro-meso-micro" perspective path, this article established three layers models, and the main conclusions of the impact on employment of industrial upgrading have three aspects:
Firstly, for the overall effect of the model, industrial output growth to generate positive promotion effect on employment, but promoting effect gradually reduced. Industrial structure shifting has a negative impact on total employment, which three industrial structure changes direction of the effect is more significant, as the effect of the structural changes in the speed is not obvious. Industry value chain upgrading to measure with the technical efficiency can bring on employment creation effect, although the labor differential will reduce the original employment needs of the industry value chain jumped, enhance technical efficiency to stimulate the emergence of new industries and jobs to make up for reduced labor substitution.
Secondly, for the comparative effect of the three models, the impact of industrial output growth on employment is reducing and may even be a negative, from the perspective of industrial structural changes, industrial structural shifting can contribute to the increase of employment, but it will becomes negative in the additional output growth and value chain variables, indicating that jumped along with the development of the national economy and the industry value chain to high-end segments, the impact of the structural changes in the three industries on employment eventually becomes negative. There is a significant role of promoting technical efficiency to increase employment.
Thirdly, for manufacturing empirical study, the overall level of output growth in the manufacturing sector, the industrial structure inclined to the "middle per capita capital stock sector, the technical efficiency of the industry value chain can significantly increase the total manufacturing employment when capitalization in the manufacturing sector may cause employment losses. Among that, the "moderate per capita capital stock manufacturing sector has a higher proportion of output value growth rate and employment elasticity the industry promotion, and should be the priority select industries for upgrading.
On the basis of the above conclusions, the paper presented at the industry level, China should continue to use the advantage of labor-intensive industries, based on a good priority target of industrial upgrading, we should combine the regional industrial upgrading and industrial transfer together, and accelerate our upgrading for the pace of the industry value chain, to focus on policies to support small and medium-sized enterprises and emerging industries, to minimize industrial upgrading negative impact on employment. For the labor market, it is necessary to reduce the cost of labor mobility, shrink labor income gap, and increase the quality of the labor force, and constantly improve the security system of labor employment, to ensure the labor market will achieve steady growth in the industrial upgrading process.
引文
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