摘要
从世界范围来看,凡是经济和航运相对发达的地区,都有一个重要的航运中心作支撑,同时航运中心对一个国家或地区的经济发展有着很强的推动作用。我国从1995年提出建设上海国际航运中心开始,国家或省级地方规划建设的航运中心已不下10个。这些航运中心有国际的与地区的、有沿海的与内河的、有综合性的也有以基础港航为主的,以上提到的各类航运中心已超出过去我们常理解的航运中心的含义,因此有必要结合实践从理论上重新认识航运中心。众多的航运中心都要实现其发展目标,那么在有限资源的激烈竞争中如何求得发展是每个航运中心必须面对的问题。航运中心的形成与发展需要政府和其他外界力量的支持,但就航运中心发展演化的整个历史过程而论,无疑是以一种内在力量作为基本推动力的,这种内在力量也是外部力量更好地发挥作用的内在基础。因此,为航运中心的发展寻求一种强劲、持续且内生的发展动力——自生能力就成为本文的核心任务。
针对核心任务,本文主要开展了以下几方面的研究工作：
1)根据“航运中心”一词在实践中的使用扩展,重新定义了涵义延伸后的航运中心,从林毅夫的自生能力在本文研究中的限度出发,采用层层推进的分析方式引入自创生理论和自组织理论,从另一角度给出了自生能力的定义。在以上的理论铺垫后提出了航运中心自生能力的概念,为弥补自生能力对地理环境和自然资源关注不足的缺点,从人地关系角度分析了航运中心自生能力的构成,并构建了航运中心自生能力的系统框架,在其中提出了航运中心自生能力的钻石模型。分析了航运中心代际演进与自生能力的关联机理,构建了航运中心自生能力代际动态演进模型,明确了航运产业集群与航运中心自生能力的耦合关系。
2)从复杂适应系统的判别标准论证了航运中心是一个复杂适应系统,对航运中心的复杂适应性造成的自生能力涌现性进行了界定,描述了航运中心自生能力的涌现现象和涌现的一般特征。涌现是从微观主体表现出的宏观属性,从分析和确定航运中心微观主体的类型入手,用基于数学解析的宏观分析方法建立了航运中心自生能力涌现概念模型,为涌现模拟奠定了的基本思路。从资源禀赋比较优势、交易效率和规模经济三个方面论述了航运中心自生能力涌现的机理,为涌现模拟建模做理论注脚。
3)通过“运作”和“沟通”这两个概念证明了航运中心是自创生系统,从供需平衡出发证明了港口体系层级结构的幂律分布,建立了要素集聚的动态空间模型并运用NetLogo4.0.5模拟航运中心自组织形成过程中的自生能力涌现,从模拟实验结果分析航运中心自生能力涌现的影响因素。
4)以武汉建设长江中游航运中心为例,分析了武汉发展航运中心的比较优势。从基础航运业、航运服务业、高端或智能航运服务业等方面分析了武汉航运产业集群的要素聚集现状和空间集聚特点,总结武汉航运产业集群发展中存在的问题。建立指标体系综合衡量长江中游港口城市体系的位序——规模结构,同时对长江中游港口城市体系的分形特征与幂律分布的演化进行了分析,以此判断武汉航运中心自生能力的状况。从促进航运产业集群发展的角度出发,在健全内部机制和完善外部环境两方面提出了增强武汉航运中心自生能力涌现性的政策建议。
本文从航运产业集群的角度将自生能力和航运中心联系起来进行研究,是一种非常有价值的尝试,既是对港口经济和区域经济理论有益的补充,也是对自生能力研究对象的拓展。论文提出的有关观点和结论对航运中心的建设和自我可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。
Seen from the range of the whole world, there is always an important shipping center as a support for a region where its social economy and shipping industry is relatively developed, meanwhile a shipping center plays important role in promoting the economic development for a country or an area. There are more than10shipping centers built by the nation or local provinces since our country had proposed to build Shanghai international shipping center in1995. Some of the shipping centers have been defined as international or regional center, some of them are located on coastal or inland and some of them are comprehensive or basic shipping ports in function. The various shipping centers mentioned above have been beyond the meaning of shipping center we used to understand, thus it is necessary for us to recognize shipping center again in a theoretical sense and practice combination. When the shipping centers are seeking to achieve its development goals, how to survive and develop with the limited resources in the fierce competitive environment is a problem that all the shipping centers have to confront. Although the formation and development of the shipping center needs the supports from the government and other external forces, in terms of development evolution of shipping center from the whole historical process, there is no doubt that the development of shipping center has an inner strength as the basic driving force, and the inner strength is also the inner base which make the external strength working better. Therefore, the core task in this paper is to seek for a strong, sustainable and endogenous development momentum which is named as "Auto-animato ability".
In this paper, some research work for the core task has been carried out as follows.
1) As the word "shipping center" is extended its using in practice, it is redefined according to the extended connotation of shipping center. Starting from the limits of the auto-animato ability theory of Yifu Lin in this paper, a new definition to "Auto-animato ability" has been given out by the analysis method of layer upon layer promotion to introduce the autopoiesis theory and self-organization theory. Based on the above theory, the new definition of "Auto-animato ability" for shipping center is proposed. In order to overcome the disadvantages of insufficient focus of "Auto-animato ability" on the geographical environment and natural resources, this study analyzes the composition of the shipping center's auto-animato ability from the perspective of human geography and builds the system framework of the shipping center's auto-animato ability. The diamond model of the shipping center's auto-animato ability is posited in the framework as well. This paper analyzes the coupling relationship between shipping industrial cluster and the auto-animato ability of shipping center. This paper also analyzes the related mechanism between intergenerational evolution and auto-animato ability of the shipping center, and builds the intergenerational dynamic evolution model of the shipping center's auto-animato ability.
2) This study demonstrates the shipping center is a complex adaptive system by judgment standard of complex adaptive system, defines the emergence of auto-animato ability caused by complex adaptive of the shipping center, and describes the emergence phenomenon and the general characteristics of the emergence of the shipping center. The emergence is a macroscopic property which displays from the microcosmic body. By analyzing and confirming the types of the microcosmic body of the shipping center, the emergence conceptual model is built based on the macroscopic analysis of mathematic analysis method. This model provides basic ideas for the simulation of emergence. The study uses Multitheoretical perspectives such as comparative advantage in resource endowment, the transaction efficiency and the economies of scale to demonstrate the mechanism of the shipping center's auto-animato ability emergence, which lay theoretical basis for emergent simulation modeling.
3) This study proves that the shipping center is an autopoiesis system through the two notions:"operation" and "communication" and tests the power law distribution of hierarchical structure of the port system from the perspective of balance of supply and demand. Besides, the study builds the dynamic space model of factors aggregation and stimulates auto-animato ability emergence which formed in the process of self-organization of the shipping center by using the NetLogo4.0.5. Then, the influence factors of the shipping center's auto-animato ability emergence are analyzed according to the results of simulation experiment.
4) To analyze the comparative advantage of developing the shipping center in Wuhan, the study takes the construction of the shipping center of the middle of Yangtze River in Wuhan as a practical example. The study analyzes the current situation of factors aggregation and the spatial agglomeration characteristics of Wuhan shipping industrial cluster from the aspects of basic shipping industry, shipping service industry, the top or intelligent shipping service industry and other likewise. Problems that existing in the development of Wuhan shipping industry cluster are pointed out. Index system is built for measuring the ranking of the port cities near the middle of Yangtze River. Meanwhile this study analyzes the fractal features and evolution of power regularities and determines the auto-animato ability of Wuhan shipping center. The study suggests that the Wuhan shipping center should take some actions such as regular the inner mechanism and improve the external environment etc. to cultivate and enhance its auto-animato ability.
In this paper, it's a valuable attempt to research by linking the auto-animato ability and the shipping center together form the perspective of shipping industry cluster. This study is not only a beneficial supplement to port economy and regional economy theory, but also an expansion to the object of auto-animato ability theory study. Some of views and conclusions in this paper have an important practical significance to the construction and self-sustainable development of the shipping center.
引文
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