摘要
农业科技是现代农业建设的重要支撑点,对于现代农业进程的推进具有决定性意义。长期以来,我们国家的农业增长主要遵循依靠投入的粗放型增长模式,高污染、高耗能、低效益是这一模式的主要特点。我国农业科学技术在20世纪90年代以后取得了较大成就,但在世界农业技术格局中,无论是科技地位还是在促进农业技术进步的作为方面,都远远落后于欧美日等发达国家以及巴西等发展中家。经济增长理论研究高度关注全要素生产率(狭义上视为科技进步贡献率)在经济增长中的重要作用,认为技术进步是经济增长可持续的动力源泉。国内外学者关于农业增长与农业技术进步的研究,重点关注了现代生产要素改造传统农业、要素约束放松、技术效率趋同、诱致性技术与制度变迁等问题,出现了一大批具有重要决策价值和理论指导意义的研究成果,形成了比较完整的分析框架。但目前这些研究大多是沿着经济增长理论的基本方法,研究农业增长因素的构成,研究对象以国家或地区、国家范围内的不同省份为主,基本思路是通过对时序数据的考察、实证,研究农业技术进步的路径、效率及差异分析等,而从微观层面出发,以当期或即期数据为主,除农民技术选择行为的研究外,其他比较系统研究农业技术进步的文献,目前还没有发现。如果我们跳出农业增长、农业技术进步的时间框架,既不去关注农业技术进步的历史路径,也不去过多关注农业技术进步产生的福利增减,仅从如何实现农业技术进步快速实现的角度考察政策的诱致力量、诱致机制的形成及作用,就会对农业技术进步产生新的理解和认识,也能够开辟新的研究视野,进一步丰富和完善这一领域的学术成果。
技术进步并不会无故产生,农业技术进步是一个开放的系统、是一个动态的发展过程,农业技术与其他要素一起共同促成了农业的发展。本研究在总结梳理文献的基础上,从诱致创新角度考察政策对农业技术进步的诱导作用。基本思路是：借鉴速水佑次郎和弗农拉坦“资源禀赋、文化禀赋及技术与制度之间一般均衡关系”范式模型,将文化禀赋变量用政策变量替代,将政策变量作为模型的起始基点构建新的诱导创新模型(政策诱致下的农业技术进步理论模型),着重探讨政策诱致机制的形成、内在机理、农业技术进步变迁方向及直观反映。据此,设计了研究的总体目标：从效率理论和诱致创新理论出发,调查掌握94个设施大棚生产主体的生产规模、投资规模、补助资金收入、利润空间、种植品种、技术引进、设备购置、技术人员聘用、劳动力培训等有关情况及相关重要数据,分别考察了农业技术使用效益的影响因素、政策推动下的设施大棚蔬菜生产规模效率、技术效率、配置效率、成本效率、规模报酬状态、全要素生产率等,从政策与资本之间的关系着手考察农业技术进步率,立足要素投入变化分析农业技术进步变迁方向,以案例为主对农业技术进步路径及支持机制进行分析说明,进而得出研究结论、后续研究重点及关注领域。研究共含八个部分,主要包含选题依据与文献综述、农业技术进步及设施大棚蔬菜发展、理论基础与分析框架、农业技术使用效益影响因素、农业生产率测度、农业技术进步变迁方向、农业技术进步路径及支持机制等内容。研究的主要内容及结论如下：
(1)采用log istic回归模型,考察了影响农业技术使用效益的政策因素、技术因素、资源因素和社会关系因素。研究表明：技术使用效益对政策表现出较大的依赖性；技术使用效益在很大程度上取决于技术人员作用的发挥和劳动力技能水平的提高；良好的社会关系有助于技术使用效益的提高,这种贡献更多体现在提高生产者的筹资能力和帮助获得优质资源上；地区经济发展水平、生产主体经济能力对于技术使用效益具有重要影响,一般而言,经济越发达、生产主体经济能力越强,技术使用效益也会进一步提高。
(2)采用DEA分析方法,结合技术效率、配置效率、成本效率三者之间的关系,分别研究了规模报酬不变和规模报酬可变前提下的农业生产效率问题。研究表明：①农业规模效率不足。设施大棚蔬菜生产规模效率仅为0.637,规模效率明显不足,对此,研究从生产经营规模适用性(解决组织管理成本)、要素流动性(解决资源要素配置问题)、资产专用性(解决交易成本问题)三个层面进行了分析论证；②生产要素组合明显优化。技术效率均值、配置效率均值和成本效率均值分别达到了1、0.975和0.975,意味着设施大棚生产过程能够沿着最小的投入组合曲线进行、生产主体对组合投入要素的使用具有强大的支配能力以及要素配置效率损失很少,多要素在生产中相互配合相互促进；③农业规模效率不足与规模报酬递增可以并存。在正外部性的作用下,个体行为自觉诱导了集体行为自觉,产生了兼具要素调整、固定技术变动、新技术新品种自由扩散的社会生产函数的形成,推动了农业生产合理区间边界向外推移,推迟报酬递减点的到来,形成了个体水平上的规模报酬递增(不变、递减)与社会水平上的规模经济并存的局面。
(3)采用增长核算法测定农业科技进步贡献率、采用生产函数分析法对农业技术进步率进行评析。研究表明：①农业科技对设施大棚蔬菜的贡献较大(贡献率超过60%),主要得益于有效的政策引导和激励。事实上,好的政策设计并不针对某个产品(品种)或某项技术的研究、推广和应用进行补贴,也不针对最终产品进行价格补贴或价格支持,而是对一种概念农业和生产过程产生的费用进行补贴,能给生产经营者更多自主选择的空间；②在政策力量的影响下,农业技术进步率明显提高,从某种意义上也证实了农业技术的公共物品或准公共物品属性。
(4)采用理论推导和比较分析的方法,分析了资本替代劳动和土地的技术进步变迁方向及要素替代原理。研究表明：①资本／劳动比率、资本／土地比率的不断提高,主要是由要素相对价格变动引致的,这种要素投入偏向推动了蔬菜产业朝资本密集型方向发展,蔬菜产业朝技术密集型发展还需要一个过程,但蔬菜产业升级趋势已非常明显；②在资本替代劳动的过程中,农业机械的使用是主要部分,在资本替代土地的过程中,空间技术和品种技术的应用是主要部分；③资源要素生产力与农业技术进步具有紧密联系,两者互为作用互为提高,这是农业技术进步内生性的重要表现。
(5)以福州设施大棚蔬菜技术进步路径为例分析了政策诱致下的农业技术进步路径,以福清市发展设施大棚蔬菜为例对政策影响下形成的农业技术进步支持机制进行说明,从生产函数、生产力乘数角度,分析了技术要素的依附形态,设计了农业技术进步的支持系统。研究表明：①政策在实现农业技术进步上可以有大作为。政策可以促进要素流动组合优化、增强资源与制度兼容性和改进农业规模效率,特别是诱导形成了促进农业技术进步的支持系统,并在农业生产过程中持续发挥作用;②政策影响下形成的土地流转机制、资本投入机制、培训机制、辐射带动机制在农业生产过程中持续发挥作用,对农业技术进步提供了良好的制度保障；③政策通过诱导更多的资本投入,实现资本对其他生产要素更高效率替代,并有可能以指数形式加速技术进步过程,缩短技术进步时间,从而进一步突破了农业生产要素无弹性供给的限制,实现了品种技术的快速替代更新、人力资本的迅速积累、产业(行业)社会利润的大幅增加。
研究还从经济理论、数据描述、文献梳理等方面考察了农业技术进步与农产品需求价格弹性、政策制度安排、世界农业科技前沿之间的关系；针对研究中存在的不足,明确了后续研究的方向与重点,并给出了研究设想。
Agricultural science and technology is an important support of the construction of modern agriculture, which is of decisively significant for the promotion of modern agricultural process. For a long time, our country's agricultural growth mainly follows the extensive growth mode of investment, in which high pollution, high energy consumption and low efficiency are the main characteristics of this model. Although China's agricultural science and technology in the1990s has made great achievements, when the issue is put in the pattern of global agricultural technology, both in scientific and technological status or in the aspect of promoting technological advances in agriculture, the achievements are lagging far behind developed countries in Europe, the United States and Japan, as well as Brazil and other developing countries. The theoretical study of economic growth is highly concerned about the TFP (narrowly it is seen as scientific and technological progress contribution rate) in economic growth as an important role, which is sustainable economic growth of the power source. Domestic and foreign scholars on agricultural growth and technological advances in agriculture research, focusing on modern factors of production transformation of traditional agriculture, elements of constraint relaxation, the convergence of technical efficiency, induced technical and institutional change, have produced a large number of researches, which worth great value of important decisions and theoretical the significance, and formed a more complete analysis of the framework and the logic system. However, most of these studies follow the basic methods of the theory of economic growth, study the constitution of agricultural growth factor, and the study objects are mainly in different provinces in a specific country or region while the basic idea is to examine the timing data, empirical technological advances in agriculture research path, efficiency, variance analysis and other issues. From the micro-perspective with the current or spot data, In addition to the study on the behavior of peasant's technology choice, any work to study the technological advances in agriculture relative completely has not yet been found. Under normal circumstances, if we do not follow the agricultural growth time frame of technological advances in agriculture, and if we are neither concerned about the historical path of technological progress in agriculture, nor focused on the changes in the benefits generated by the technological advances in agriculture, in stead, if we study the formation of induced mechanism and role of agricultural technological progress only from the rapid achievement of technological advances in agriculture by the power of the policy, we will generate new understanding and awareness, and we are able to open up new research horizons, enrich and perfect academic achievements in this field.
Technological progress will not be made without reason, and the technological advance in agriculture is an open system and a dynamic process of development, agricultural technology together with other elements contributes to the development of agriculture. On the basis of combining the literature, this study investigates the inducing role of policy to promote technological advances in agriculture from induced innovation angle. The basic framework in the study is to make improvements of the paradigmatic models on the basis of the general equilibrium relationship between resource endowments, cultural endowments and technical and institutional from Hayami Woo Jiro and Vernon Ratan, the study makes policy variables replace cultural endowments, in other words, the study uses policy variables as basis points to build a new model start-induced innovation model (policy induced agricultural technological progress theoretical model), focused on the formation, the internal mechanism, The direction changing of the agricultural technological progress and direct reflection of policy-induced mechanism. Accordingly, the design of the overall objective of the study is to examine the main production scale, the investment scale, the subsidy fund revenue, profit margins, plant varieties device technology acquisition, technical staff relevant and important data of the employed labor force training of94facilities, greenhouses production, facilities from efficiency theory and the theory of induced innovation theory, and investigate greenhouse vegetable production efficiency, scale status of individual producers and scale efficiency, technical efficiency, allocating efficiency, cost efficiency, Scale return promoted by the policies. Based on the related efficiency value, with a combination of production function, the study mensurates the TFP, outlines the internal mechanism of the carding policy-induced agricultural technology progress. From the perspective about the relationship between policy and capital, inspects the rate of, agricultural technology progress, based on the changes in factor inputs, analysises the direction changes of agricultural technology progress, based on the case mainly to analysis the agricultural technology progress path and supporting mechanism, then draws conclusions and finds out the main areas of concern that the follow-up research must be focused on. Studies include eight parts, which are topics based on the literature review, the technological advances in agriculture and facilities greenhouse vegetable development, the theoretical basis of the analytical framework, agricultural efficiency measure, the direction changes of agricultural technology progress, the agricultural technology progress path and supporting mechanism,etc. The main findings and conclusions of the study are as follows:
(1)With the logistic regression model, investigates the influencing factors of the agrotechnique using benefit on policy; technique, resource and social network. The study shows that:the using benefit of agrotechnique relying on policy largely, depends largely on the role of artisan and the improving of the labor skill; good social relationships are contributed to the benefit, the contribution is embodied more to help producer obtain high quality resources and improve the financing ability; regional economic development level and producer's economic capacity have great significance on the benefit, generally speaking, the more developed the economy, the more stronger of the of the producer's economic capacity, the using benefit of agrotechnique would be further improved.
(2)The study examines the scale efficiency of agricultural production under the premise of constant scale returns and variable returns with DEA analysis methods, combining the mutual relations of technical efficiency, allocating efficiency, cost efficiency. The study shows that:①the lack of large-scale agricultural efficiency. Researches have been focused on this analysis and demonstration from the applicability of the scale of production and management (to solve organizational management costs), factor mobility (solve the problem of resource elements configured), and asset specificity (to solve the problem of transaction costs);②the combination of production factors have been significantly optimized. The mean technical efficiency, the mean allocating efficiency and the mean cost efficiency reach1,0.975and0.975respectively, which means that facilities greenhouse production could process along the minimum input combinations curve, with a strong domination of the main production in the combination input factors and a small loss of factor allocation efficiency, multi-factor production complement each other and promote each other.③The efficiency of large-scale agricultural and increasing scale returns can co-exist. With the influence of the positive externalities, the behavior of the individual consciousness induced the collective conscious behavior, and engendering the social production functions, mainly on the adjustment of elements, the fixed technological changes, the free diffusion of new technology and new varieties, thus promoting agricultural production in a reasonable range boundary outward, postponing the coming of diminishing returns, promoting the generation of more huge-scale macro-production generating function, forming the coexistence of enterprise level increasing returns to scale (constant, decreasing) and social level of economies of scale.
(3)The study uses the growth accounting method to determine the contribution rate of agricultural scientific and technological progress, uses the production function analyses the rate of agricultural technology progress. The study shows that:①the contribution of agricultural science and technology to the increase of greenhouse vegetable facilities is inevitable (the contribution rate reaches over60%), which mainly thanks to effective policy guidance and policy incentives. In fact, a good policy design is not to subsidize the research, extension and application of a product (varieties) or a technical price subsidy or price support for the final product, but to subsidize a concept of agriculture and costs in the production process to give the production operators more choice space;②Based on the influence of the policy power, the rate of the agricultural technology progress increases significantly In the policy the power of influence, which confirmed the public or quasi-public attribute of agricultural technology in a sense.
(4)Using theoretical analysis, comparative analysis and the survey data to explain the substitution of capital for labor and land technological progress changes direction as well as the principle of factor substitution. The study shows that:①The capital/labor ratio, capital/and ratio increasing continuously, caused mainly by the relative factor price changes, the input bias promotes the vegetable industry develops in capital intensive direction, and in technology intensive development requires a period time, but the vegetable industry upgrading trend has been very obvious;②With the continuous improvement of the capital/labor ratio, the capital/land ratio, facilities greenhouse vegetable industry escalation gradually, the trend of the development of capital-intensive has been shown but the development of technology-intensive requires a long process;③There are close relationship between the resource productivity and agricultural technology progress, they are interacted and improved each other, this is the important performance on the agricultural technology progress endogenous.
(5)In the case of technological progress route of Fuzhou Facilities vegetable to describe the agricultural technology progress path induced by the policy; in the case of Fuqing's development of greenhouse vegetable facilities to describe the supporting mechanism induced by the policy; The study analyses dependence form of technical elements, design the support system of technological advances in agriculture from the perspectives of production function, productivity multiplier, total factor productivity. The study shows that:①The policy plays a large role in the technological advances in agriculture. Policies can promote factor mobility combinatorial optimization, enhance resources and system compatibility, and improve the efficiency of large-scale agricultural, especially inducing the formation of a support system to promote technological advances in agriculture, and continues to play a great role in the process of agricultural production;②The land circulation mechanism, the capital investment mechanism, the training mechanism and the driving mechanism, which formed under the influence of policy, plays an important role in the agricultural production process Continually, and meanwhile provides supporting system;③Policy guidances more capital investment capital makes other factors of production more efficient alternative, and it is possible to speed up the process of technological progress in exponential form time to technological progress, and it brings further breakthroughs in inelastic supply constraints of agricultural production factors, realizing varieties of technical alternative quick update, the rapid accumulation of human capital, the substantial increase of the profits of the industry social capital-led.
The study also describes the relationship between technological advances in agriculture and agricultural product price elasticity of demand, policy institutional arrangements, the world's agricultural frontier science and technology from economic theory, data, and literature etc and points out the clear focus of the follow-up study and direction, and research ideas to solve the shortcomings in the study.
引文
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