摘要
上市公司价值评估是证券分析中最为重要和关键的环节。上市公司作为一种“公众”企业,其价值是现有投资者和潜在投资者关注的重点。同时,上市公司的价值增值也是其管理者进行公司经营管理活动所遵循的目标。对上市公司的价值评估实际上是对公司经营资产创造价值能力的评估。
论文研究的问题角度是把生命周期理论应用到对上市公司内在价值的评估实践之中。构建判断上市公司价值生命周期阶段的模型,在生命周期视角下研究两大类主流价值评估方法——现金流折现法和相对比较乘数法,并对主流评估方法提出了改进,对主流评估方法之外的评估方法进展进行研究和介绍,最后对价值评估方法的适用性进行探讨,并提出了研究和分析我国上市公司价值驱动因素的基本思路。
在对国内外相关价值评估和生命周期的理论进行梳理和比较的过程中,本文对国内外各种理论研究的特点及不足进行了分析,并以此为切入点展开研究。关于企业生命周期的研究,国外学者的研究主要集中在对企业生命周期的阶段划分,以及企业生命周期的财务特征方面。我国学者近年来对企业生命周期的研究领域主要是围绕生命周期与企业盈余管理、应计特征等方面进行的。在对企业价值评估的理论和方法的研究方面中外学者的研究已经形成了较为完善的系统。我国学者对价值评估的研究主要集中于一些实证方面的上市公司市场数据的检验,而涉及到价值评估理论方法的论述较少。近年来中国学者对各种不同类型企业价值的评估分别进行了一些研究和探索,但是对生命周期理论在价值评估实践中应用进行相关研究的学者很少。
在企业生命周期理论的基础上,本文进一步研究了适合我国上市公司生命周期阶段划分的标准和划分方法,分析了企业的生命周期的阶段特征以及企业生命周期的变化趋势。初步构造了具体判断企业生命周期阶段的四阶段模型,以及操作性更强的三阶段模型。运用本文构造的四阶段模型和三阶段模型,以我国A股市场上部分上市公司作为研究对象,研究生命周期阶段模型在判断上市公司生命周期阶段中的应用,具体判断目标上市公司所处的生命周期阶段。
本文研究的主要内容是在生命周期框架下,讨论上市公司价值评估的理论和方法。研究的重点放在生命周期视角下的两类主流价值评估方法——现金流折现法和相对比较估值法。
对现金流折现法的研究中.分析了企业不同生命周期阶段的经营现金流、投资现金流和自由现金流特征,以及企业不同生命周期阶段的利润增长及股利分配变化。自由现金流是股东评估公司价值的一个重要测量工具。它是公司给付所有现金开支以及运营投资后所持有的剩余资金,它是公司为各种求偿权者尤其是股东所能提供的回报。许多投资者把公司产生现金流的能力摆在考察指标的第一位。利润、股息和资产价值也许是重要的指标,但最终这些指标的增长都是由公司产生现金的能力所决定的。
在对相对比较估值法的研究中,本文并没有使用传统的相对比较估值方法的简单模型,而是将每一种相对比较估值法都应用于成熟稳定增长的企业和两阶段增长企业,并可据此推导出多阶段增长模式的企业。这可谓是本文的一个创新之处。相对比较估值法的应用需要两个条件。第一个条件,为了在相对的基础上估价资产,必须对价格实行标准化,通常借助于把价格转换为与赢利、账面价值或销售额的比值。企业价值可以表现为价格比率与相关价格比率基数的乘积,用公式表示如下：企业价值=价格比率×价格比率基数。第二个条件是要找出相似的可比公司,这一点是相对比较乘数法在实际运用中的难点所在。对于本文来讲就是找出相类似的生命周期阶段的可比公司。因此可比公司并不拘泥于同行业,如果两家公司所处的生命周期阶段、现金流特征和风险都相似的话,就可以做为可比参照公司进行研究。不论采用哪一种乘数进行估计,都应当区分企业是处于哪种类型的增长阶段,从而适用不同的增长模型。
在我们研究的几类主流定价模型中,都有一个显著的特点,就是会计信息没有被充分应用到定价当中。事实上在资本市场上,会计信息发挥着巨大的作用。投资者密切关注的是上市公司的会计报表,并针对企业盈利信息变化调整其投资组合。很多上市公司自身也通过盈余管理来影响股价和资本市场。而剩余收益这一概念把会计报告中的每股收益、每股的股权价值直接和上市公司内在价值联系起来。剩余收益定价模型是一种应计会计定价模型。在剩余收益定价模型中使用应计会计制,比现金流模型更加准确,适用性也更强。在对剩余收益模型的优点进行肯定的基础上,本文对其做出了进一步的改进,改进了明确预测期后的上市公司价值评估,在模型中引入了价格账面价值比率,这样就使得剩余收益模型有了计算的上下边界,经过改进后的模型更加强化了预测的可靠性和可信度。
除了对主流价值评估方法的研究和改进之外,本文还对评估方法发展情况进行了探讨,主要是现金流折现法的新发展,还包括实物期权方法和经济增加值方法等。期权估价法是否会在一定程度上取代传统的现金流折现法和可比公司估值法并没有定论。与主流估值方法相比,实物期权方法能够解决我国资本市场上对于一些有外生性增长预期的上市公司的定价难题。经济价值增值法对营业净利润的调整,消除部分扭曲会计信息的影响,能够更好的反映企业的经营状况和投资价值。但是这些方法在应用中都存在一定的困难和局限性。
面临评估公司及其股权价值,我们既要在各类方法之间做出选择,如现金流折现法、相对比较乘数法以及其他估值方法。同时还要在每类方法所包含的不同模型之间做出选择。这些选择将会受到被评估公司基本面特征的影响,包括盈利水平、增长潜力、盈利增长的缘由,举债水平的稳定性以及公司的股息政策等。把价值评估模型与被评估的上市公司相互匹配是估值的一个重要组成部分。在价值评估过程中,正确理解相应的评估模型和获得正确的基础数据是同样重要的。本文的最后对我国上市公司价值的创造和驱动因素做了定性和定量的判断,研究了生命周期因素对公司价值创造的影响,并提出了研究和分析我国上市公司价值驱动因素的基本思路。
本文可能的创新之处：
1、研究角度的创新,虽然上市公司估值和定价理论已经发展的相对成熟了,但是生命周期视角下的上市公司价值评估方法是一个较为新颖的视角,这方面的研究国内少有人涉及。
2、对相对比较估值法的研究创新,论文并没有套用传统的相对比较估值方法的简单模型,而是将每一种相对比较估值法都应用与成熟稳定增长的企业和两阶段增长企业,并可据此推导出多阶段增长模式的企业。
3、试图用其中的理论与方法,并同时结合中国的实际,为研究优化中国上市公司价值评估、价值创造和价值管理的提供一种思路,这是一种带有创新性质的初步尝试。
Valuation of a listed company is one of the most important and crucial link for security analysis. Since listed companies are a kind of public companies, their value is a key point closely concerned by the investors and potential investors. Meanwhile, the value increment of listed company is also a goal followed by the managers who are engaged in activities of company management and operation. As a matter of fact, assessment of a listed company's value is actually the evaluation of the company's value creation ability by operation assets.
The research angle of this paper is to apply the theory on life cycle to the practices of evaluation of the listed company's inner value. It firstly establishes a model for judging the value of listed companies during life cycle stage, and then studies two mainstreamed valuation methods under the visual angle of life circle—Discounted Cash Flow and Comparative Multiplier Methods. Moreover, some improvements on the mainstreamed evaluation methods are made. It also introduces and studies other evaluation methods except the mainstreamed ones. Finally, this paper explores the applicability of the business valuation methods, and proposes the basic thread of studying and analyzing the driving factors of the value of listed companies in our country.
In the process of collecting and comparing the domestic and foreign theories related to business valuation and life cycle, the features and shortcomings of all these theoretical researches are summarized in this paper as the breakthrough point of this research. Regarding the researches on enterprise life cycle, the foreign scholars mainly focused on the stage division of the life cycle and the financial features of enterprise life cycle. In recent years, scholars in our country attached great importance to the management of life cycle and enterprise earnings and accrued features etc. When studying enterprise life cycle. The domestic and foreign scholars have already built a relative consummated system on researches of theories and methods for enterprise business valuation. Scholars in our country mainly focused on empirical testing of listed companies'market data, and few of them have been involved in dissertation of valuation methods, In recent years, Chinese scholars conducted researches and explorations on the valuation of different enterprises. However, regarding the application of life cycle theory in valuation practices, there are not many scholars devoting themselves in this area.
Based on the enterprise life cycle theory, this paper further studies the standards and methods for the stage division of life cycle of listed companies in our country, and analyzes the stage features of changing trend of the companies. It builds a four-stage model which can judge the enterprise life cycle stage preliminarily and a three-stage model with much better operability. By using the aforesaid two models, and part of the listed companies in A Share Market of our country as the research objects, this paper studies the application of life cycle model in judgment of listed company life cycle stages, and the specific judgment goal is the life cycle stage in which the targeting listed company is.
The main research content of this paper is to discuss the theories and methods of valuation of listed companies under the framework of life cycle. The key points of the research lie in the two mainstreamed valuation methods-- discounted cash flow and Comparative Multiplier Method under the visual angle of life cycle.
When studying the method of discounted cash flow, this paper analyzes the features of operating cash flow, investing cash flow and free cash flow in all stages of life cycle, as well as the changes of interest growth and dividend distribution in different stages. Free cash flow is an important testing tool for the shareholders to evaluate a company's value and it refers to the residual cash after payment of all the expenses by cash and operation investment. Free cash flow is also a repay to all kinds of the reimbursement seekers particularly the shareholders. Many investors prefer to place the company's ability of producing cash flow in the first place among all the indicators. Interest, dividend, and asset value are important indicators as well, whereas the growth all these indicators are actually decided by the company's ability of producing cash flow.
Concerning the researches on Comparative Valuation methods, this paper does not adopt the traditional model of Comparative Valuation but applies each of the Comparative Valuation to mature and stably-growing enterprise and two-stage growing enterprises, based on which the multiple-stage growth mode of enterprise is deduced. This is one of the innovations in this paper. The application of Comparative Valuation requires two conditions:1. in order to evaluate the assets on a comparative basis, the price should be standardized, and the ration of price to profit, book value or sales will be utilized. Enterprise value can be expressed as the product of price ration and relevant price rate base.2. The second condition is to find out similar enterprise for comparison, while this is also the difficulty for the application of Comparative Valuation in reality. For this paper, it is required to find out a comparable enterprise wit similar life cycle stages. Therefore, the comparable enterprise is not limited to those in the same industry, so long as the life cycle stage, cash flow features and risks of the company are similar to that of our research object, it can be selected as the reference company for the research. Regardless of using which multiplier for valuation, it is necessary to indentify the growth stage of the company so as to choose the corresponding growth model.
During researching on the mainstreamed valuation models, we found they share a remarkable feature, that is, accounting information is not fully utilized in valuation. In fact, in the capital market, accounting information plays a huge role. The investors pay close attention to the financial statements of the listed companies, and adjust their Portfolio Investment based on the companies' profitability. Many listed companies also influence the stock price and capital market by their earnings management, whereas the concept of surplus profit will connect the inner value of a listed company with the income of each share and the value of equity in the financial statement directly. Surplus profit valuation model is an accrued accounting valuation model. To apply accrued accounting system to surplus profit valuation model will be more accurate than cash flow model, and its applicability is also much better. On the basis of affirming the strongpoint of surplus profit valuation model, this paper makes further improvement upon it, including improving the valuation of listed company after predication period, introducing price-book value ration to the model. In this way, the surplus profit valuation model is given with a range in calculation, and the model after improvement will further enhance the reliability of predictions.
In addition to studying and improving the mainstreamed valuation methods, this paper also discussed the development of valuation methods, including the latest development of discounted cash flow, Real Option and economic value added method etc.. There is no definite answer regarding if the option valuation will replace the traditional discounted cash flow and comparative valuation method. Compared with the mainstreamed valuation methods, Real Option can help to solve the difficulty of valuation of listed companies with anticipation of exogenous growth. Economic value added method conduces to adjust operation net income and eliminate the influence of some distorted accounting information, thus it can better reflect the operation situation and investing value of a company. However, all these methods have their own difficulties and limitations in application.
Facing the evaluated company and its value of equity, we need to make decisions to choose the most proper valuation methods, such as discounted cash flow, comparative valuation, and so on. Meanwhile, further choices should be made to select the most suitable models covered by each of the valuation method. These choices are influenced by the valuated company's basic features, including the profitability, growth potential, reasons for profit growth, stability of debt ability as well as the company's dividend policies etc.. To match the valuation model with the valuated listed company is an important component of valuation. In the valuation process, to understand the valuation models correctly and obtain accurate basic data are of the same importance. This paper finally offers some quantitative and qualitative judgments on the factors generating and driving the value of listed companies in our country, studies the influences of life cycle factors on the creation of value, and proposes basic thread for researching on and analyzing the driving factors of the value of listed companies in our country.
The possible innovations made in this paper include:
1. Innovation in research visual angle. Though the valuation of listed company and valuation theory are growing relative mature, valuation methods of listed company under the visual angle of life cycle is a new vision, and few domestic scholars have studied this area.
2. Innovations in comparative valuation methods. This paper did not use the traditional simple model of comparative valuation. It just applies each of the comparative valuation methods to both mature & stably-growing enterprises and two-stage growing enterprise, based on which the enterprises with multiple-stage growth model is deduced.
3. In combination with the actual situation of China, this paper also attempts to apply the theories and methods to offer a thread for optimizing valuation, value creation and value management of listed companies in China, which is a preliminary attempt with creativity.
引文
Irving Fisher, The Nature of Capital and Income (M), New York: The Macmillanco,1927.
①《企业生命周期》,伊查克.爱迪思著,赵睿译,华夏出版社,2004年。
①转引自雷蒙德.米尔斯(Raymond C. Miles)基础商业估价(Basic Business Appraisal)[M].1984年版。
①根据今日投资数据库测算结果。
②来源于证券市场周刊、北京中能兴业公司联合出品《2009A股上市公司数据手册》,259页。
③根据中金公司研究报告《估值与财务模型》中推算的结果,按15%-20%为股票市场风险溢价进行取值。
①来源于证券市场周刊、北京中能兴业公司联合出品《2009A股上市公司数据手册》,120页。
②根据今日投资数据库机构测算结果。
③来源于证券市场周刊、北京中能兴业公司联合出品《2009A股上市公司数据手册》,176页。
①根据今日投资数据库机构预测。
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