摘要
在当今世界经济全球化和区域经济一体化的大背景下,湖南省人民政府规划实施由长沙、株洲、湘潭三个城市组成的城市群一体化发展战略,酝酿成立长株潭城市群。
区域经济学中的都市经济圈理论、产业结构理论、产业集群理论和SSA模型的基本原理是作为长株潭城市群产业结构分析的理论依据。Shift-Share Analysis模型(简称为SSA模型)是定量研究区域产业结构的重要工具,文章在对长株潭城市群产业结构作出分析的同时,运用SSA模型,选择2000年-2005年长株潭城市群的三次产业的基本数据,做三次产业的结构分析,结果表明长株城市群的三次产业结构不太合理,但区域产业结构的竞争能力仍表现为逐步增强。为了对产业结构作更深入的研究,但又由于数据匮乏,同时长株潭城市群工业比重占整个湖南省近一半以上,因此文章只能先借用湖南省33个工业产业的基础数据,运用同样的方法,分析工业产业结构,在这种趋势下推测出长株潭城市群工业产业部门的发展走向。综合分析二者的研究结果表明:SSA模型分析结果与实际比较接近,定量研究结果和定性研究结论比较吻合,模型分析的结果可以作为制定相应产业政策的依据。根据模型分析结果和现有研究成果,文章最后给出了未来发展的过程中所要构建的优势产业集群,明确其产业结构调整的方向。
Under the big background of world economic globalization and regional economic integration, the People's Government of Hunan Province has planned to implement the development strategy of integrating the three cities: Changsha, Zhuzhou and Xiangtan, and gestating the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration.
The theoretical foundation for analyzing industrial structure the large Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Economic Zone is the Thoery of Urban Economic Circle, the Theory of Industrial Structure, the Theory of Industrial Cluster and Shift-Share Analysis Model (SSA Model) is an important means in the quantitative study of this regional industrial structure. In this paper, the industrial structure of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration is analyzed; and meanwhile, based on the principal data of the 2000-2005 Three Industries in this agglomeration, the structure of the Three Industires is also analyzed in SSA Model. The result is that the structure of the Three Industries in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration is not very reasonable but the competitive ability of its regional industrial structure has been gradually strengthened. For lack of enough data, the industrial sector in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration, whose industry accounts for nearly 50% in Hunan Province, is studied by the same means and with the help of the basic data of 33 industrial sectors in Hunan Province so as to speculate the development trend of the industrial sector of this agglomeration. The results of the comprehensive study show that the analysis results by SSA Model is close to the fact, the rsults of both quantitative and qualitative studies are the same and the analysis results by SSA Model can be used as the basis for making a corresponding industrial policy. Finally, dominant industrial groups to be formed in the future development are proposed and the adjustment dirction of the industrial structure are determined in the closing of the paper, based on the existing research results and the analysis results by SSA Model.
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