摘要
近年来，科技型中小企业发展迅速，已成为市场经济中最活跃的主体之一。如何对其进行科学、客观、公正地资信评估，是社会信用体系建设的一大难题，关系到我国科技型中小企业未来的可持续发展。现有的企业资信评估体系未能充分考虑到其快速成长和高风险的特点，本文结合技术创新水平与科技风险对企业发展的影响，注重分析企业的创新能力、科技风险、成长与发展能力，建立了科技型中小企业资信评估模型。
本文首先介绍了国内外资信评估发展状况及理论基础，简要分析了科技型中小企业的成长规律、科技特点及评估意义。其次，在分析比较国内外资信评估指标体系和充分考虑科技型中小企业的特点，并在调查的基础上，得出科技型中小企业资信评估指标体系，给出相应的评估标准及资信等级。然后，选用层次分析法与专家意见法确定指标权重，将模糊数学应用于企业资信评估，给出企业资信评估的模糊综合评价方法。最后，选取四家企业的实际数据和公开信息，对本文所设计的评价系统进行实证分析，较好解决了科技型中小企业资信评估问题。
In recent years, the small and medium-size science-technology enterprises have developed rapidly and become one of the main most brisk bodies in the market economy. How to carry on the credit ratings of them scientific, objectively and justly, is one of the problems in the social credit system construction. It concerns the sustainable development of small and medium-size sci-tech enterprises in our country. The present credit ratings systems for enterprises fail to concern their characteristics of rapid growth and high risk fully. A model of credit ratings for small and medium-size sci-tech enterprises was set up to consider the influence of the technology innovation and the sci-tech risk to the enterprises. It lays stress on analyzing the abilities of innovation and development and the sci-tech risk.
Firstly, the development status of credit ratings in domestic and overseas and is reviewed in this paper, as well as the economic elements of credit ratings. The growing rules and characteristic of risk of small and medium-size sci-tech enterprises, and the significance of credit ratings are briefly analyzed. Secondly, the credit index system for rating the small and medium-size sci-tech enterprise is educed on the basis of analyzing and comparing the present systems, concerning the enterprises' characteristic and investigation. The related standard and grades of credit ratings are also educed. Thirdly, the AHP and Delphi methods are chosen to define the index weights. As the fuzzy mathematics applied in the ratings, the model using the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to assess the small and medium-size sci-tech enterprises is set up. Finally, the evaluation system of credit ratings designed in this paper is testified by the real data and openly information of four enterprises. The result shows that the model could be better used for credit ratings of small and medium-size sci-tech enterprises.
引文
[1] 张胜利、狄娜，中小企业信用担保，上海财经大学出版社，2001
[2] 张宗新，马克思主义融资思想探析，当代经济研究，2002．1：15-18
[3] 孙智英，信用问题的经济学分析，中国城市出版社，2002：9-11
[4] Corporate Ratings Criteria, Standard & Poor's, 2002.
[5] Gifford Fong, Oldrich A. Vasicek, A Multidimensional Framework for Risk Analysis, Financial Analysts. 1997.7:51-57.
[6] 陈晓红、郭声琨，中小企业融资，经济科学出版社，2000：247-953
[7] 张文凯，资信评估与金融市场发展，上海经济研究，1999．6：47-50
[8] 赵怀勇，我国企业征信业发展的现状、问题与政策建议，经济研究参考，2002．6
[9] 李振宇、李信宏，资信评级原理，中国方正出版社，2002年
[10] 杨斌，当前我国资信评级业的现状及发展，金融教学与研究，2000．2：23-25
[11] Pierre Richard Agenor Paul R. Masson, Credibility,, Reputation and the Mexican Peso Crisis. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 1999.5: 123-135
[12] 吴晶妹，现代信用学，中国金融出版社，2002
[13] 张维迎，产权、政府和信誉，上海三联书店，2001
[14] 杨清、梁新，科技型中小企业投资价值测评指标体系研究，武汉理工大学学报，2002．6：49-52
[15] 袁建明，科技型中小企业创业发展生命周期特征分析，合肥工业大学学报(社科版)，2002．4：58-61
[16] 陆立军，科技型中小企业：环境与对策，中国经济出版社，2002
[17] Alexander Kaufmann. Frartz Todtling, Innovation Support for SMEs in upper Austria, 1999.5. www.step.no/old/projectarea/smepol/pdf/at_fin_t.pdf
[18] 宗明华，企业技术风险及其分析，昆明理工大学学报，
[19] 吴京贵，技术创新管理，清华大学出版社，2001
[20] Arnoud W. A. Boot, Todd T. Milbourn, Credit Ratings as Coordination Mechanisms, Working Paper, Feb. 19, 2002. www.nber.com
[21] 林均跃，企业信用管理，企业管理出版社，2001
[22] 陈晓红，中小企业融资，经济科学出版社，2000
[23] Hans J. Loges, Experiences in Implementing Rating Systems for Small and Medium-size Enterprises (SMEs), www.rating-services.de
[24] 陈元燮、陈欣，建立我国企业债券信用评级制度问题研究，财经研究，1999．8：49-53
[25] 阵元燮，建立信用评级指标体系的几个理论问题，财经问题研究，2000．8：1-8
[26] 中华征信所，征信手册，中信出版社，2003
[27] 梅强、谭中明，中小企业信用担保理论、模式及政策，经济管理出版社，2002
[28] 顾江、于晓颖，企业资信评级指标体系评价模型，数量经济技术技术经济研究，1999．5：58-60
[29] Moody's Investor Service, Industrial Company Rating Methodology, Global Credit Research, 1998.
[30] Standard & Poor's, Corporate Ratings Criteria, 2002.
[31] Li-Gang Lin, Giovanni Ferri, How do Global Credit Rating Agencies Rate Firms from Developing Countries, Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper, 26, September, 2001.
[32] William E Treacy, Mark Carey, Credit Risk Rating Systems at Large US Banks, Journal of Banking & Finance, 2000.24:167-201
[33] Jan Pieter Krahnen, Martin Weber, Generally Accepted Rating Principles: A Primer, Journal of Banking and Finance, 2000.5: 2-19
[34] 李华平、徐耀东，贷款企业信用评级及其方法，中诚信评级，www.ccxinternational.com.cn
[35] 大公国际资信评估公司，大公信用评级方法，www.dasongcredit.com
[36] 大公中小企业信用评级方法，www.dagongcredit.com
[37] 刘丹丹，从美银行资信评估体系看我国的信贷风险管理，国际经济与贸易研究，2001．5：33-35
[38] Oldrich Alfons Vasicek, Credit Valuation, KMV Corporation, March 22,1984
[39] Debt Rating Methodology, A. M. Best Company, Inc. August, 2001.
[40] 曾珍秀，顾培亮，可持续发展的系统分析与评价，科学出版社，2000
[41] 杜胜利，企业经营业绩评价，经济科学出版社，1999
[42] Michel Crouhy, Dan Galai, Robert Mark, Prototype Risk Rating System, Journal of Banking & Finance, 2001.25: 47-95
[43] 韩景元，企业技术创新能力评价的理论、指标与方法，河北科技大学学报，2002．3
[44] 葛宝山，孙红霞，高技术风险投资资信评估指标体系研究，科学学研究，2002．5：521-524
[45] 唐建荣，聚类分析在企业信用等级分类中的应用，江苏统计，1997．3．
[46] Lyn C. Thomas, A Survey of Credit and Behavioural Scoring; Forecasting financial risk of lending to consumers.
[47] 郭菊娥，经济量化分析——方法与运用，陕西人民出版社，1997：151-200
[48] 陈雄华，林成德，叶武，基于神经网络的企业信用等级评估，系统工程学报，2002．6：570-575
[49] 朱荣恩，徐建新，现代企业信用分析，上海三联书店，1995
[50] 王春，万海晖，张维，基于神经网络技术的商业银行信用风险评估，系统工程理论与实践，1999．9：24-32
[51] Altman E., A.Saunders, Credit Risk Measurement over the Last 20 Years, Journal of Banking and Finance, 1998.2:73-76
[52] Hans-Peter Gullich, Experience with New Soft-computing Concepts for Rating System. Working Paper, www.rcs-ag.cn
[53] 邹新月、王建成，企业信用等级模糊综合评判，系统工程，2001．7．
[54] 陈娟，吴开微，企业资信的模糊数学评价方法，工科数学，2001．8：15-20
[55] 刘普寅，吴孟达，模糊理论及其应用，国防科技大学出版社，1998
[56] 贺仲雄，模糊数学及其派出决策方法，中国铁道出版社，1993
[57] 魏巍贤，企业信用等级综合评价方法及应用，系统工程理论与实践，1998．2：26-31
[58] 白雪梅，赵松山，多种综合评价方法的优劣判断研究，经济研究，2000．7：45-48
[59] Gill Baker, The Credit Risking Gets Harder, Euromoney, 2001.2: 67-76
[60] J. Galindo, P. Tamayo, Credit Risk Assessment Using Statistical and Machine Learning: Basic Methodology and Risk Modeling Applications, Computational Economics, 2001.5.
[61] Loretta J. Mester, What's the Point of Credit Scoring? Business Review, Sept./Oct. 1997:3-16
[62] Allan L. Riding, George Haines JR. Loan Guarantees: Costs of Default and Benefits to Small Finns, Journal of Business Venturing 16: 595-612