摘要
货币政策传导机制是指中央银行运用一定的货币政策工具,影响经济机制内的一系列经济变量和主体进而最终实现既定货币政策目标的传导途径和作用机理。其传导过程,起于货币政策工具,终止于既定政策目标,从起点到终点的实现过程即是传导机制发挥作用的过程。由于传导过程的复杂性,货币政策传导机制一直是各国货币当局最为关心的问题,对货币政策传导机制的研究也始终是学术界争议的热点。
从理论上讲,中国货币化进程的加快,货币市场、资本市场的建立及其规模的不断扩大为货币政策的有效传导提供了必要的物质基础；利率市场化趋势的不断加强为形成真实有效的货币政策价格信号,形成货币政策传导与金融市场间的价格联动扫清了制度障碍；货币政策工具的日益完善也为货币政策的实施提供了多种可供操作的手段。这一切都大大增强了我国货币政策传导的空间和弹性,但也同时大大增加了调控者对货币政策传导中各环节的分析和掌控难度。
从现实中看,1995年颁布的《中国人民银行法》明确规定人民银行作为我国中央银行,负有通过实施货币政策,进行金融宏观调控,从而保持币值稳定,并以此促进经济增长的法定责任。这一目标能否实现,在很大程度上取决于货币政策的传导机制是否顺畅,即中央银行能否通过实施货币政策,在需求方面影响居民消费、企业投资和进出口,在供给方面影响国民经济总量水平,从而实现调控经济总量均衡的目的。从近年来我国货币政策的调控实践来看,货币政策传导机制实际上是并不十分顺畅。
因此,无论是从理论方面,还是从现实中看,对我国当前的货币政策传导机制进行深入、细致的研究都具有十分重要的意义。为此,论文采取理论分析与实证研究相结合,历史分析和逻辑分析相结合,纵向分析与横向比较相结合等多种分析方法,对中国货币政策传导机制进行多角度、全方位分析研究和实证检验。
论文首先从对货币政策传导机制研究的理论前提——货币非中性入手,对假设前提在我国是否成立进行实证检验,为论文的全面展开和分渠道检验奠定理论和实证基础。然后,论文参照米什金(Mishkin,1995)的分类方法,将货币政策传导渠道按照政策变量的角度加以归纳,即分别为利率渠道(The Interest Channel);信贷渠道(The Credit Channel);资产价格渠道(The Assets Price Channel)和汇率渠道(The Exchange Rate Channel),并循着先理论考察,后实证分析,再结论建议的逻辑顺序展开分渠道论证。得出：(1)实际利率与货币供应量、固定资产投资和消费之间存在长期协整关系,在货币政策利率传导渠道中由货币供应量到利率变动的传导关系成立,而再由利率到实体经济之间的传导渠道不畅通。说明利率在我国政府主导型的固定资产投资决策中并非核心影响因素,从而使得由利率到投资的货币政策传导链条受阻。(2)在我国货币政策信贷传导渠道中,由货币供应量变动到金融机构信贷规模变动的传导路径较为顺畅,中央银行货币政策调控能够引起金融机构贷款规模变动,同时金融机构贷款规模变动能够引起固定资产投资规模变动,且引致关系明确。从而使我国货币政策的信贷传导渠道的有效性程度较高。但从格兰杰因果关系检验来看,货币供应量变动与金融机构各项贷款变动之间因果关系不明显,在一定程度上说明我国货币供应量存在一定的内生性,在货币供应量M2的范围内存在货币供应“倒逼机制”。(3)我国股票市场运行与货币供应量之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,货币供应量变动对上证指数和股票流通市值作用明显,股票市场对来自货币供应量的一个标准差新息冲击能够做出正向响应,到达响应峰值的平均时滞约7个月左右。但我国股票市场运行与工业增加值增长、固定资产投资、居民消费之间不存在长期稳定的协整关系,由股票变动到企业固定资产投资和居民消费的传导路径不畅,托宾Q理论及莫迪利安尼的消费财富效应在我国目前尚不成立。(4)货币政策调控与人民币汇率之间存在长期协整关系,但协整关联度很低且因果关系倒置,货币政策调控不足以引致人民币汇率相应变动。人民币汇率对货币政策调控的冲击响应时滞平均为7-11个月。
论文在最后一章联系中国实际,提出了分渠道改进和完善中国货币政策传导机制,提高货币政策传导适应效率的具体措施和建议。
The monetary policy transmission mechanism refers to the process that the central bank use monetary policy tools to affect a series of economic variables and agents to realize final monetary policy goals. The process begins with the monetary policy tool and ends in the policy goal. Due to its complexity, it is always the focus of national monetary authority and also the hot spot in the academic circle.
Theoretically, along with the quickening process of Chinese monetization, the establishment and expansion of Chinese monetary and capital market have provided necessary material foundations for the effective transmission. With the strengthening trend of interest rate marketization, a real and effective price signal has come into being gradually, which is good to the linkage of prices in the financial market. Plenty of financial derivatives have also provided many kinds of implementation methods for money policy. All things mentioned here will greatly strengthen the monetary policy's transmission space and elasticity. But they may also increase the difficulty of analyzing and controlling chains of monetary policy transmission.
From the aspect of reality, the Chinese People Banking Law promulgated in 1995 stipulates explicitly that the People's Bank of China is the Central Bank, which has the legal responsibility of implementing monetary policy to carry on the macroeconomic adjustment in order to maintain the currency stability and promote economic growth. Whether that goal is realized or not depends on the smooth monetary policy transmission. That is to say, it depends on whether the central bank can affect the consumption, investment, import and export in the demand side, and the output in the supply side, so as to realize the goal of economic balance. However, according to the practice of monetary policy operation, the transmission is not smooth.
Therefore, either in the theory or in the reality, it's important to explore the transmission mechanism of China's current monetary policy. This paper adopts methods of uniting theoretical and empirical analysis, historical and logical analysis, transversal and vertical analysis in order to study the transmission mechanism of China's monetary policy from all aspects.
The paper begins with the monetary non-neutrality, which is the premise of theoretical study of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The paper tests whether that premise is tenable in China, so as to establish the theoretical and practical base. Based on Mishkin (1995), the paper sums up the transmission channels according to policy variables. Namely they are the Interest Channel, the Credit Channel, the Assets Price Channel and the Exchange Rate Channel. The paper follows the rule of beginning with theoretical exploration, then empirical tests and ending in policy advices. It is concluded that:1) Real interest rates and money supply, fixed asset investment and consumption exist long cointegration relationship. The transmission from monetary aggregates to interest rate is tenable, while the transmission from interest rate to real economy is not, which presents that interest rate in our government-led investment is not the core factors.2) Transmission of Monetary Policy in the credit channel is more unimpeded. Central bank monetary policy can control the scale changes of financial institutions. However, Granger causality test finds that the causality relationship between money supply and financial institutions' loan is not obvious, which may imply that the money supply in China is endogenous. 3) China's stock market and money supply exist long-run stability cointegration relationship. Money supply shows obvious affection on the Shanghai stock market capitalization index. The stock market can do a positive response to a standard deviation of the impact of new information. The average delay to reach the peak response is about 7 months. However, the industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and the consumption do not exist long-run stability relationship, and Tobin's Q theory and Modigliani's consumer wealth effect in China is not yet established.4) Monetary policy and exchange rate exist long-run cointegration, but the correlation is very low and cointegration causality is upside down. RMB exchange rate's response to the impact of monetary policy has an average of 7-11 months delay.
Finally, according to the realities of China, this paper put forward some suggestions of bettering and perfecting the transmission mechanism and improving the transmissions efficiency of monetary policy.
引文
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