摘要
农村电网规划是农村电网发展的“龙头”。农村电网规划通过研究农村电网整体,分析农村电网动态,研究农村电力需求变化规律,优化农村电网结构,提高农村电网供电可靠性,使农村电网具有充分的供电能力,以满足农村电力需求增长的需要,使农村电网的容量之间、有功功率和无功功率之间的比例趋于协调,成为供、用电指标先进的电网,并使其成为设备得到更新、结构完善合理、技术水平先进的电网。
农村电网规划主要包括几个相互联系的部分:农村电网现状评估与分析、电力需求预测(包括空间负荷预测)、电力电量平衡、高压电网规划、中低压配电网规划、无功优化规划和配电自动化规划。农村电力需求评价和负荷预测结果是农村电网规划的依据,开展电力需求评价和负荷预测研究具有重要的现实意义,对于我国这样经济快速增长的国家来说,更是如此。
为了提高农村电网规划工作的科学性、规范性和工作效率,农村电网规划工作的信息化成为了该领域的发展方向,其主要内容就是要建设基于GIS的农村电网规划系统。
本论文在开展农村电力需求综合评价和建设基于GIS的农村电网规划系统方面,针对存在的问题,主要从以下几个方面开展了研究,取得的主要成果和结论有:
(1)农村电力需求受到政治、社会、经济、环境、科技等不同因素的影响,这些因素彼此关系复杂。本文利用层次分析法等方法对农村电力需求开展了定量的综合分析研究,首次得到了影响农村电力需求的三层递阶层次结构模型。经过分析,认为:在影响总目标的各条途径中,经济发展的权重为0.491,最为重要,说明经济发展与农村电力需求具有较强的相关性;在各项措施中,产业结构、气温、企业景气指数、节能降耗、宏观调控五条的权重分别为0.104、0.08、0.068、0.066、0.066,分列前五位,是影响农村电力需求的主要因素,这些因素除气温外都与国家的经济政策和经济运行情况密切相关,说明在当前要研究农村电力需求,首先要研究经济政策和经济运行情况;值得注意的是在各项措施中,电价、GDP、人均收入等权重分别为0.049、0.033、0.013,在全部26项措施中,仅分别列第9、13、23位,说明在当前调整电价、单纯的GDP增长以及人均收入的提高等对农村电力需求的影响并不大。该结果有助于正确把握新时期农村电力需求的特点和发展趋势,为政府和电力企业加强农村电网建设提供了决策参考依据,同时也为电力企业的生产经营活动提供了决策依据。
(2)根据指数理论和研究得到的影响农村电力需求的三层递阶层次结构模型,本文首次研究建立了农村电力需求综合评价指标体系,提出了农村电力需求指数评价方法,并按照科学的程序,通过定量分析与定性分析,设计了农村电力需求指数,以指数形式对农村电力需求状况做出的系统、客观和准确的综合评价。通过编制发布农村电力需求指数,可以动态反映农村电力需求水平,有利于管理部门进行科学评价,对不同地区进行综合的横向比较分析,为企业的生产经营活动提供决策依据,对提高农村电网生产经营管理水平具有重要意义。
(3)采用地理信息系统(GIS)开发平台,首次建设开发了一套实用的基于GIS的农村电网规划系统。系统采用基于Client/Server的数据库体系结构,将规划数据集中存储在服务器上,规划数据库服务器与数据采集与监视控制系统(SCADA)、管理信息系统(MIS)、客户信息管理系统(CIS)和自动绘图/设备管理/地理信息系统(AM/FM/GIS)等系统相连。负荷测量数据和网络数据从SCADA和AM/FM/GIS中获取,而用于负荷研究和估计所需的用户用电量和用电特性等信息则可以从CIS中获取,规划数据从GIS系统中自动提取。客户端包括三个应用系统:负荷分析系统、馈线分析系统和优化规划系统。基于GIS的农村电网规划系统采用四层体系结构模型和一心四点电网规划资源管理器设计方案,以电网规划资源管理器为中心和系统总控界面,以电网结构树、分区结构树、环网结构树和检查信息为支撑,巧妙结合配电网建模、分析和优化的各项功能。该系统结构紧凑、运行速度快、操作简单、具有高度的保密和安全性。
(4)针对我国这样经济快速增长的国家来说目前应用于电力需求预测的方法预测结论不十分准确的问题,研究提出了基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的用电量预测方法、基于灰色—马尔柯夫链预测模型的用电量预测方法、基于组合预测方法用电量预测方法等若干种较为准确的预测方法。在空间负荷预测方面,对改进趋势法、用地仿真法等适合我国农村电网特点的方法进行了研究。
(5)随着农村电网的发展,对可视化技术的需求也在不断增加,运用可视化技术,将可以有效提高农村电网的数据管理水平,提高在大量的数据中展现重要信息和发现规律的能力,促进农村电网管理水平的不断提升。本文着眼于农村电网规划系统的功能扩展,发挥GIS能够同时管理地理空间数据和属性信息的优势,基于WebGIS和电力营销管理系统,研究利用GIS采取基于电子地图等方式更直观地展现农村电力需求变化规律,取得了成功。
(6)数据接口与电网建模是农村电网规划系统建设的重要环节。本文从数据共享和整合出发,以系统的观念和一体化的设计思想,首次研究提出农村电网规划系统与相关系统的数据接口设计方案,通过采用FME软件完成复杂易变的外部数据提取,满足了从外部数据源灵活提取数据要求。采用面向对象的统一建模语言(UML)开展基于公共信息模型(CIM)的农村电网建模,保证了农村电网规划系统的开放性、灵活性、可扩展性。
Rural power grid planning is the key of the development of rural power grid.The contents of rural power grid planning are to research the whole rural power grid,analyze the dynamic characteristic of rural power grid,research the rules of rural power requirement,and optimize structure of rural power grid.The aims of rural power grid planning are to improve the reliability of the power supply,and make the rural power grid be satisfied with power supply capacity,to meet the growth in demand for electricity in rural areas.It could make the ratio of capacities,active and reactive power trend to coordinate.It could make the rural power grid to be a power grid whose supply and consumption indexes are advanced,and who has updated equipments,reasonable structure,and advanced technology level.
Rural power grid planning includes several interrelated components as follows:assessment and analysis of the status of rural power grid,electricity demand forecasting(including space load forecasting),the balance of power consumption,high voltage power grid planning,low voltage distribution grid planning,optimization of reactive power planning and power distribution automation planning and so on.The results of evaluation of rural power grid demand and electricity load forecast is the basis for the rural power grid planning.So it is of great realistic significance, especially for China's rapid economic growth of this country.
In order to improve the scientific,regularity,and efficiency of rural power grid planning, information-based work has been the developing direction in the field of rural power grids planning. The main content is to build a GIS-based rural power grids planning system.
In this paper,we studied in the aspects of comprehensive evaluation of rural electricity demand, and construction of the rural power grid planning system based on GIS.The main results and conclusions are as follows:
(1) Rural power demand is influenced by political,social,economic,environmental,technological factors and so on.The relationships between these factors are complex.AHP method was used in comprehensive analysis and quantitative research of rural electricity power.At the first time, a three-tier AHP model of rural electricity demand was built.It was found that among the various factors which would influence the overall goal,the weight of economic development is 0.491.Most important,it showed the strong correlation between economic development and rural electricity demand.In the measures,the weight of industrial structure,climate,business climate index,energy saving,the macro-control was 0.104,0.08,0.068,0.066,and 0.066, respectively.They came out the top five,and were major factors impacting on rural electricity demand.Except the climate,the other factors are closely related with the country's economic policies and economic development.It suggested that,it was necessary to study the economic policies and economic development before studying rural electricity demand.Among the various factors,the weight of electricity price,GDP,per capita income,was 0.049,0.033,and 0.013.In all 26 factors,power price,GDP,per capita income was the 9th,13th,23rd, respectively.It showed that the influence of current adjustment of price,a simple GDP growth and increasing per capita income on the rural electricity demand was not large.The results helped to correctly grasp the new era of rural electricity demand characteristics and trends for the government and the power enterprises to strengthen the building of rural power grids to provide a reference for decision-making,but also for electricity production and business activities of enterprises to provide a basis for decision-making.
(2) According to index theory and the three-tier AHP model impacting on rural power demand,a rural power demand comprehensive evaluation index system was established,and index evaluation methods of rural power demand was brought forward at the first time.In accordance with the scientific process,through quantitative and qualitative analysis,rural power demand index was designed.Systemic,objective and accurate comprehensive evaluation was made on the state of rural electricity demand in index form.Published in rural areas through the development of electricity demand index,it could dynamically reflect the status of demand for electricity in rural areas,which is conducive to scientific evaluation for management department,integrated horizontal comparison analysis on different areas to provide basis of decision making for production and business activities of enterprise.It is significant to improve rural production and operation of power grids management level.
(3) Adopting geographic information system(GIS) development platform,a set of practical GIS-based rural power grid planning system was developed.The system adopted the Client / Server database architecture to store the planning data on the server.Planning database server was connected with SCADA,MIS,CIS and AM/FM/GIS systems.Load measurements data and grids data could be acquired from SCADA and AM/FM/GIS.The data which was used for loading research and forecast the consumption of electricity of users and electro-characteristic could be acquired from CIS.The planning data could be acquired from GIS system automatically.Clients included three application systems:load analysis system,feeder analysis systems and optimization planning system.GIS-based rural power grids planning system adopted four-tier system architecture model and "one center four points" grid planning resource management to design program.Grid planning resource management system was the center and control interface.The power grid structure tree,district structure tree,ring network structure tree and inspection information was used as the support,to unique combination of various functions such as power distribution network modeling,analysis and optimization.The system has compact structure,fast running,simple operation,with a high degree of confidentiality and security.
(4) In view of forecast inaccuracy by the methods which applied in forecasting electricity demand in our country that has a such rapid economic growth,we studied and figured out several electricity demand forecasting methods,such as methods based on the grey GM(1,1) model, grey - Markov forecasting method,and the combination forecasting methods,which are more accurate.For the load forecasting methods in space,the improved trend method,land suitable emulation method which was suitable for characteristics of China's rural power grid space were used to research.
(5) With the development of rural power grids,the demand for visualization technology has also increased.Using visualization technology will be able to effectively improve the rural power grids of data management,improve the ability both in showing important information and discovering rules among numerous data,as well as promoting management level of rural power grids.This article focuses on the functional expansion of the rural power grids system,as well as the superiority that GIS is able to manage geospatial data and attribute information simultaneously.This article also studies how to show the rules of electricity demand changes in rural areas more directly by using GIS,including electronic maps etc,which based on the WebGIS and power marketing management system and has been successful.
(6) Data Interface and power grid modeling are important parts of building the rural power grid planning system.Based on the integration of data sharing technology,making concept of system and integration as designing ideology,it was the first time to advance rural power grid planning system and the related data system interface designing program.Through the use of FME,complex volatile external data was extracted,which could meet the demand of extracting data from external data sources flexibility.The CIM rural power grid model was developed by using object-oriented UML modeling language.It could ensure the characteristic of openness, flexibility,scalability of the rural power grid planning system.
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