摘要
经济发展模式低碳化转型是当今国际的经济发展模式的必然趋势。碳排放配额是发展低碳经济的核心问题,但是当前发展中国家一直无法与发达国家就此达成一致意见。因此,对发达国家和发展中国家在碳排放配额博弈中的均衡策略进行预测显得尤为重要。本文结合进化博弈模型来分析、预测碳排放配额博弈中发达国家和发展中国家的进化稳定策略。
论文首先利用工程生态学中的“生态碳足迹”和“生态碳盈亏”等分析工具构建碳排放配额进化博弈存在性检验框架,并结合我国进行实证研究,经计算得出我国的生态碳承载力为30.28,生态碳足迹为647.36,因而我国的生态碳赤字为617.08,我国目前已面临着较为严重的“生态碳赤字”。所以,我国乃至全球都面临着经济发展模式低碳化转型的紧迫任务。
在得证碳排放配额进化博弈存在性后,论文基于进化博弈的复制动态分析范式构建了碳排放配额进化博弈分析模型。论文在第四章中结合当今国际碳排放配额市场实际情况,选择进化博弈中的“鹰鸽博弈”来结合实际数据进行实证分析,并最终求证出(合作,合作)策略是发达国家和发展中国家的进化稳定策略。
在求得进化稳定策略后,论文进一步对进化稳定策略的持续稳定性给出了在博弈方极小犯错比例和有限理性下较大犯错比例的“联合串谋”两种情况下的论证,并最终得证(合作,合作)进化稳定策略的持续稳定性。
论文最后一部分对碳排放配额对人类福祉的促进作用给出了阐释,并结合我国的实际情况指出了我国在碳排放配额交易发展中存在的问题和应对策略,同时,论文最后作出合理的展望。
图14表6参78
Transformation of economic development model into low carbonization is inevitable trend of current international economic development. Carbon emission quota is the crux of development of low-carbon economy, and currently developing countries and developed countries have been unable now reach agreement. Therefore, forecasting equilibrium strategies of developing countries and developed countries is particularly important. Evolutionary stable strategy of developed countries and developing countries in carbon quotas game is analyzed and predicted based on evolutionary game model.
Firstly, evolutionary game framework for existence test of carbon emission quota evolution game is established with using "ecological foot print" and" ecological carbon gains and losses" and other analysis tools in engineering ecology. With empirical research on our country, ecology carbon carrying capacity is 30.28; ecology carbon foot print is 647.36, and ecological carbon deficit is 617.08. China is now facing a really serious "ecological carbon deficit." Therefore, China and the world are facing the urgent task of low carbon transition in economic development model.
Carbon quotas evolution game analysis model is constructed with evolutionary game replication dynamic analysis paradigm after evidencing existence of carbon emission quota evolution game. "Hawk and Dove Game" is chose to conduct an empirical analysis of actual data with combination of current international carbon emissions quota market conditions in the fourth chapter of this paper, and ultimately verify that (cooperative, cooperative) strategy is evolutionary stable strategy for both developed and developing developed countries and developing countries.
After obtaining evolutionary stable strategy, argument under the circumstance of a very small percentage of mistaking game players and large proportion under bounded rationality of the "joint conspiracy" has been evidenced and finally durative stability of the evolutionary stable strategy (cooperation, cooperation) is verified.
At last, promoting influence of carbon emission quotas in human welfare has been illustrated in the last part. And problems in developing carbon emission quotas and countermeasures have been proposed in accordance with the actual situation of our country. In the meanwhile, a reasonable prospect is made accordingly.
引文
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