摘要
桥梁在服役期间,环境侵蚀、材料老化和荷载的长期效应、疲劳效应与突变效应等不利因素的耦合作用将不可避免地导致结构和系统的损伤积累及抗力衰减,其剩余使用寿命经受着严峻的考验。随着桥梁健康监测技术的发展,测试信息的准确性相应提高;同时时变可靠度理论也不断得到完善,极大地提高了预测评估的可靠性。而现有的结构使用寿命预测方法都不能系统地、真实地对桥梁做出可靠的预测,本课题旨在从研究桥梁实时监测信息出发,以时间序列理论和可靠度理论为基础,建立结构抗力和所受荷载效应的数学统计模式,进而达到预测桥梁整体结构的剩余使用寿命目的。
首先比较常用结构使用寿命预测方法的优缺点,重点分析基于监测信息的寿命预测特点及优势;利用规范和有限元理论,结合监测手段提出确定桥梁初始状态的三种方法。影响桥梁可靠性剩余寿命预测的因素大体分为结构抗力和荷载效应两类,因此将它们构成整个研究的主题。通过收集国内外对结构抗力时变方面研究的资料,系统总结了诱发桥梁抗力衰变的各个影响因素,并对其影响机理进行深入剖析;借用材料力学和结构动力学的基本原理,推导出反映结构抗力衰变的特征因子;时频分析理论揭示了监测信息与这些特征因子的相互关联。依据数学手段和各特征因子的特性,提出特征因子反映抗力的方法;小波多尺度分析和数学拟合方法的思路解决了监测信息中活载效应分离的问题,为修正现有荷载模型打下基础。
最后,应用时间序列理论建立起基于监测信息的结构抗力及荷载效应的预测性时变模式,构建出可靠性结构寿命预测的框架流程模式。以实桥监测信息为依托,分析了该桥抗力及活载效应的动态趋势,给出挠度监测信息的ARMA预测函数表达式,总结、验证了寿命预测模型的正确性。该模型融入信息、数学和力学等多方面知识,它将具有广泛的工程应用前景,及重大的社会效益和经济效益。
During service of bridge, coupling effects of unfavorable factors such as environmental erosion, material aging, long-tem effect of load, fatigue effect and mutagenic effect lead to damage accumulation and resistance attenuation in the structure and system inevitably, and residual service life of bridge endure severe test. With the development of bridge health monitoring and improvement in accuracy of test information, at the same time, the time-varying reliability theory is consummated continuously; the above improve reliability of prediction and evaluation mostly. Because existing prediction method for structure service life can’t make reliable prediction accurately and systematically, this task form studying on real-time monitoring information of bridge and based on time series theory and reliability theory establish mathematical statistical model between structural resistance and load effect, in order to predicting residual service life of bridge’s whole structure.
Firstly, advantage and disadvantage of usual prediction method for structure service life are compared, the characteristic and advantage of life prediction based on monitoring information is analyzed; the three measures of confirming bridge’s initial state are proposed using code, finite element theory and monitoring means. The factors of affecting prediction for bridge reliable residual life are consist of structural resistance and load effect, so the topic of this paper is composed form these. Through the materials of studying on prediction measures of the structure service life overseas are collected , kinds of influencing factors of inducing bridge’s resistance decay are summarized, and influence mechanisms are analyzed deeply. Using the basic theories of material mechanics and structure dynamics, characteristic factors of reflecting structure resistance decay are deduced. The theory time-frequency analysis reveals the interdependence between monitoring information and these characteristic factors. Based on the measure of mathematics and the identify of these characteristic factors, the way that these characteristic factors reflect structure resistance is lodged. Analysis character of wavelet multi-scale and mathematical fitting method provides thoughts for question of live load effects separation in monitoring information, the above offer a correction method for existing load method.
Finally, using time series theory, structure resistance based on monitoring information and time-varying mode of load effect are established, the processes establish frame diagram of life prediction of the reliability structure.Based on monitoring information of actual bridges, the dynamic trend of the structure resistance and the effect of live load are analyzed, the function expression which is ARMA prediction of deflection is proposed, and accuracy of life prediction model is summarized and verified.
Various knowledge such as information, mathematics and mechanics are crossed in this model. The thought have a wide range of engineering applications, and significant social and economic benefits.
引文
[1] Kilareski W R. Failure of reinforcement concrete structures due to corrosion[J]. Material Performance, 1980
[2]杨文渊,徐犇.桥梁维修与加固[M].北京:人民交通出版社,1997
[3]卢木.混凝土耐久性研究现状和研究方向[J].工业建筑,1997
[4] Andrzej S. Nowak, T. Tharmabala. Bridge reliability evaluation uing load tests[J]. J. of Structural Engineering, 1989
[5] Kumalasari. Wardhana, Fabian C. Hadipriono. Analysis of recent bridge failares in the united states[J]. Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities, ASCE, 2003
[6]李亚东.既有桥梁评估初探[J].桥梁建设,1997
[7]罗福午.建筑结构缺陷事故的分析及防止[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1996
[8] Wallbank. E.J. Performance of concrete in bridges-a study of 200 trunk road bridges. HMSO,london, 1900
[9]旧桥的检测、评定与加固[M].交通部公路科学院研究所,1985
[10]刘自明,王邦楣.既有桥梁检测评估的若干要点[J].桥梁建设,2002
[11]胡柏学,谢海秋等.服役钢筋混凝土桥梁承载能力衰减研究[J].中南公路工程,2004
[12]第二次全国公路普查主要数据公报[M].中华人民共和国交通部,2002
[13]艾军,史丽远等.现有公路桥承载力分析与评定[J].苏州城建环保学院学报,2000
[14]上海市市政工程管理局科技情报站[M].上海地区桥梁技术,1996
[15]刘洪军,赵冬兵等.基于可靠度分析的桥梁耐久性评估[J].上海公路,2004
[16]毛应生,高中俊.旧桥结构的可靠性评价[J].中国市政工程,1993
[17]冯乃谦,蔡军旺等.山东沿海钢筋混凝土公路桥的劣化破坏及其对策的研究[J].混凝土,2003
[18]封孝信,冯乃谦等.沿海公路桥梁破坏的原因分析及防止对策[J].公路,2002
[19]万德有.我国铁路桥梁病害浅析与对策探讨[C].中国铁道学会桥梁病害诊断及剩余寿命评估学术研讨会,大连,1995
[20]杨晓红.基于可靠度理论的钢桥剩余疲劳寿命评估(硕士论文)[D].苏州:江苏大学,2006
[21]郑栋梁,李中付等.结构早期损伤识别技术的现状和发展趋势[J].振动与冲击,2002
[22]邓志勇.桥梁结构评估与剩余寿命预测(硕士论文)[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2005
[23] R.K.Gupta. Residual life assessment of steel bridges[J]. Advances in Bridge Engineering, 2006
[24]石永.光纤传感桥梁长期健康监测数据采集系统研究(硕士论文)[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2005
[25]何旭辉.南京长江大桥结构健康监测及其关键技术研究(博士论文)[D].长沙:中南大学,2004
[26] Sunargo Sumitro, Yoshimasa Matsui. etc. Long span bridge health-monitoring system in Japan[J]. Health Monitoring and Management of Civil Infrstructure Systems, 2001
[27] Z.X. Li,T.H.T. Chan,J.M. Ko.Fatigue analysis and life prediction of bridges with structural health monitoring data-Part I:methodology and strategy[J].International Journal of Fatigue, 2003
[28]缪长青,李爱群等.润扬大桥结构健康监测系统设计研究[J].世界桥梁,2006
[29]张敏,养殖芳,朱利明.东海大桥桥梁结构健康监测系统研究与设计[J].桥梁建设,2006
[30]董学武,张宇封等.苏通大桥结构健康监测及安全评价系统简介[J].桥梁建设,2006
[31]朱永,符欲梅等.大佛寺长江大桥健康监测系统[J].土木工程学报,2005
[32]周建庭,向毓志等.在役大跨径桥梁基于远程监测的可靠性评价[J].重庆交通大学学报,2007
[33]尹仕健,曹映泓,张海明.湛江海湾大桥健康监测系统及其设计[J].中外公路,2006
[34]董学武,张宇封等.苏通大桥结构健康监测及安全评价系统简介[J].桥梁建设,2006
[35]索清辉.基于概率理论的既有桥梁承载力评估方法研究(博士论文)[D].成都:西南交通大学,2005
[36]金伟良,赵羽习.混凝土结构耐久性[M].北京:科学出版社,2002
[37]卓尚木.钢筋混凝土结构事故分析与加固[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1997
[38]秦权.评定现有建筑物可靠性的专家系统[J].中国土木工程学会桥梁及结构可靠度委员会全国第二届学术会议论文集.重庆,2000
[39] Frohnsdorff. Masters L. Suggestion for a logically consistent structure for service life prediction standards[J]. Durability of Building Materials and Components. In:Proceedings of the Fifith International Conference. UK, 1990
[40] Grigoriu M. Hall W.B. Probabilistic models for proof load testing[J]. Journal of Structural Division, ASCE, 1984
[41]张俊之.考虑抗力退化的在役结构可靠度验证荷载法[J].工程力学(增刊),1999
[42]李云贵,李清富等.现有结构的可靠度鉴定[J].工程力学(增刊),1993
[43] Hiroguki Kameda, Takeshi Koike. Reliability theory of deterioration structures[J]. Journal of the Structural Division, 1975
[44] Geidl V. Saunders S. Calculation of reliability for time-varying loads and resistance[J]. Structures Safety, 1987
[45] Vesikari E. Service life of concrete structures with regards to corrosion of reinforcement[J]. Res. Reports, Espoo, Finland, 1988
[46] Mori Y. Elldingwood B.R. Reliability-based service-life assessment of ageing concrete structures[J]. Journal of the Structural Division, 1992
[47] Mori Y. Elldingwood B.R. Time-dependent system reliability analysis daptive importance sampling[J]. Structures Safety, 1993
[48] Li C. Q. A case study on the reliability analysis of deteriorating in:proceedings of the institution of civil engineers[J]. Structures and Buildings, 1995
[49] Michael P. E. and Dan M. F. Service life prediction of deteriorating concrete bridges[J]. Journal of the Structural Engineering, 1998
[50]赵国藩.结构可靠度研究中荷载效应统计分析的若干问题[J].四川建筑科学研究,1984
[51]杨巧虹,沈祖炎.民用建筑可靠性鉴定时可变荷载的统计分析[J].四川建筑科学研究,2000
[52]赵国藩.工程结构可靠性理论与应用[M].大连:大连理工大学出版社,1996
[53]牛荻涛.混凝土结构耐久性与寿命预测[M].北京:科学出版社,2003
[54]李田,刘西拉.混凝土结构耐久性设计[J].土木工程学报,1994
[55]贡金鑫,赵国藩.考虑抗力随时间变化的结构可靠度分析[J].建筑结构学报,1998
[56]段忠东,欧进萍.基于概率疲劳累积损伤理论的构件抗力衰减分析[J].哈尔滨建筑大学学报,1996
[57] Karen C. Jie Yuan. Safety assessment of existing structures using a filtered fuzzy relation[J]. Structural Safety, 1992
[58]史波,赵国藩.基于可靠度的锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构使用寿命预测[J].大连理工大学学报,2007
[59] James R. Clifton. Predicting the service life of concrete[J]. ACI Materials Journal, 1993
[60]王新友,李宗津.混凝土使用寿命预测的研究进展[J],建筑材料学报,1999
[61]闫波,王幼青.大气污染对钢筋混凝土结构耐久性影响研究[J].哈尔滨建筑大学学报,2000
[62] Weyers R E. Service life model for concrete structures in chloride laden environments[J]. ACI Materials Journal, 1998
[63] Shamsad Ahmad, Bishwajit Bhattacharjee. Experimental service life prediction of rebar-corroded reinfirced concrete structure[J]. ACI Materials Journal, 1997
[64]惠云玲.混凝土结构钢筋锈蚀耐久性损伤评估及寿命预测方法[J].工业建筑,1997
[65]金祖权,孙伟.桥梁高性能混凝土的耐久性研究及寿命预测[J].桥梁建设,2005
[66] Ameg S.L., Johnson D.A.,etal. Predicting the service life of concrete marine structures: an environmental methodology[J]. ACI Structural Journal, 1988
[67] Liang M.T., Wang K.L, etal. Service life prediction of reinfirced concrete structures[J]. Cement and Concrete Reseach, 1999
[68]赵福星,史海秋等.一种适用于应力疲劳和应变疲劳得通用寿命模型[J].航空动力学报,2003
[69]王技,钟海辉.回归预测法在桥梁剩余寿命预测中的应用研究[J].公路交通技术,2006
[70] R.K.Gupta. Residual life assessment of steel bridges[J]. Advances in Bridge Engineering, 2006
[71]陈志芳,文雨松.不明配筋梁的剩余疲劳寿命评估[J].长沙铁道学院学报,2003
[72]文雨松,廖群立.铁路混凝土梁疲劳问题的分段线性解[J].铁道学报,1996
[73]张宝昌,白付平等.焊接结构断裂寿命估算的试验研究[J].焊接学报,1994
[74]陈惟珍,G. Albrecht, D. Kosteas.老钢桥剩余安全度与剩余寿命估计[J].同济大学学报,2001
[75]王春生,陈艾荣,陈惟珍.铆接钢桥剩余寿命与使用安全评估方法[J].同济大学学报,2006
[76]李厚祥,熊健民等.基于断裂力学的钢梁整体节点疲劳寿命分析[J].湖北工学院学报,2002
[77]李清富,赵国藩.结构概率寿命估计[J].工业建筑,1995
[78]王春生,陈艾荣,聂建国.既有铁路钢桥剩余疲劳寿命的概率论评估[J].计算力学学报,2006
[79]徐俊,陈维珍,谭金华.赣江大桥基于应力谱的疲劳寿命可靠性分析[J].桥梁钢结构,2004
[80]索清辉,钱永久,张方.基于概率理论对既有结构剩余寿命的评估[J].建筑技术开发,2004
[81] Mori Y, Ellingwood R. Time-dependent system reliability by adaptive importance sampling[J]. structural Safety, 1999
[82] Frangopol D. M. Kai-yung Lin. Estes A. C. Reliability of rienforced concrete girders under corrosion attack[J]. Journal of Structural Engineering, 1997
[83] Val, D. V. Melchers, R. E. Reliability of deteriorating RC slab bridges[J]. Journal of Structural Engineering, 1997
[84] Enright M. P. Frangopol D. M. Service-life prediction of deteriorating concrete bridges[J]. Journal of Structural Engineering, 1998
[85]赵尚传,赵国藩.基于可靠性的在役混凝土结构剩余使用寿命预测[J].建筑科学,2001
[86]陈艾荣,陈华婷等.大跨桥梁风致抖振疲劳可靠度近似分析及寿命估算[J].土木工程学报,1999
[87]张妃二,陈秉照等.进行桥梁疲劳强度的模糊可靠性设计与疲劳寿命分析[J].中南公路工程,2002
[88]姜海波,车惠民.既有铁路混凝土梁承载力可靠性评估[J].土木工程学报,2000
[89]李运生,车惠民.在役公路钢筋混凝土梁剩余寿命估算方法研究[J].铁道标准设计,2003
[90]张彦玲,陈伟.在役公路钢筋混凝土梁的可靠性分析及剩余寿命估算[J].中外公路,2004
[91]王翼,蔡敏.在役钢筋混凝土桥梁的可靠度分析及其寿命预测[J].工程与建设,2006
[92]蔺石柱,胡长明,李燕飞.在役钢筋混凝土结构承载力寿命分析[J].西安建筑科技大学学报,2006
[93]冯文刚,马良等.锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构可靠性与寿命预测[J].公路交通技术,2007
[94]彭文韬,邓志勇等.基于时变可靠度理论的桥梁评估和剩余寿命预测[J].武汉理工大学学报,2008
[95]万臻,李乔,毛学明.基于可靠度的桥梁结构剩余使用寿命预测方法[J].公路交通科技,2006
[96]李清富,成子桥.混凝土结构剩余寿命的预测[J].郑州大学学报,2003
[97]王技,钟海辉.灰色理论在桥梁剩余寿命预测中的应用研究[J].现代交通技术,2006
[98]孟宪宏,宋玉普.灰色马尔可夫链在混凝土疲劳寿命预测中的应用[J].混凝土,2004
[99]田峻山,张帆等.混凝土结构寿命灰色的模型及预测[J].华北科技学院学报,2007
[100] Ming-Te Liang, Guo-Fan Zhao. etc. Evaluating the carbonation damage to concrete bridges using a grey forecasting model combined with a statistical method[J]. Journal of the Chinese Institute of Engineers, 2001
[101]屈文俊,车惠民.既有铁路混凝土桥梁的维修及经济使用寿命预测[J].桥梁建设,1996
[102]赵尚传,赵国藩等.在役混凝土结构最优剩余寿命预测[J].大连理工大学学报,2003
[103]夏红霞,周宏等.基于神经网络的混凝土结构使用寿命评估[J].安全与环境学报,2004
[104] ZhongLuo, LiuLisheng, etal. The application of neural network in lifetime prediction of concrente[J]. Journal of Wuhan University of Technology, 2002
[105]刘斌云,霍达.现有混凝土桥梁结构剩余寿命预测方法研究[J].市政.交通.水利工程设计,2007
[106]张江亭,靳敏超.桥梁结构仿真寿命预测实例研究[J].公路交通技术,2007
[107]郑蕊,李兆霞.基于结构健康监测系统的桥梁疲劳寿命可靠性评估[J].东南大学学报,2001
[108]胡肇滋.桥跨结构简化分析[M].北京:人民交通出版社,1996
[109]雷俊卿.大跨度桥梁结构理论与应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2007
[110]刘文峰,张劲泉等.杭州湾跨海大桥监测系统中应变传感器的优化布点[J].公路交通科技,2005
[111]王廷臣.基于桥梁健康监测的传感器优化布设[J].传感技术学报,2005
[112]郑荣跃,徐凯明等.斜拉桥监测系统传感器位置的寻优[J].国防科技大学学报,2005
[113]焦鹏飞.在役混凝土桥梁剩余使用寿命预测研究(硕士论文)[D].西安:长安大学,2004
[114]王晓佳.钢筋混凝土梁桥的退化模型与预测(硕士论文)[D].上海:同济大学,2006
[115]邢尚青.既有钢筋混凝土梁桥使用寿命的仿真研究(硕士论文)[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2003
[116]过镇海.钢筋混凝土结构原理[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1999
[117]周建民.考虑时间因素的混凝土结构分析方法(博士论文)[D].上海:同济大学,2006
[118]徐芝纶.弹性力学简明教程[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2002
[119]崔飞,袁万城,史家钧.基于静态应变及位移测量的结构损伤识别法[J].同济大学学报,2000
[120]祁德庆,李帅等.海洋平台损伤诊断研究[J].力学季刊,2008
[121]高维成,刘伟,钱成.基于剩余模态力和模态应变能理论的网架结构损伤识别[J].工程力学,2007
[122]杨建荣,白羽.基于双参数结构损伤两阶段检测方法研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2006
[123]郭惠勇,罗乐,李正良.基于刚度指标和频率的结构损伤定性定量识别[J].西南交通大学学报,2008
[124]郭惠勇,李正良.基于测量位移和频率的结构损伤二次识别方法[J].振动与冲击,2007
[125]张谢东,张治国等.基于曲率模态和柔度曲率的结构多损伤识别[J].武汉理工大学学报,2005
[126]孙即祥.现代模式识别[M].长沙:国防科技大学出版社,2002
[127]焦鹏飞.在役混凝土桥梁剩余使用寿命预测研究(硕士论文)[D].西安:长安大学,2004
[128]周建庭.基于可靠性理论的桥梁远程监测系统安全评价研究(博士论文)[D].重庆:重庆大学,2005
[129]万臻.斜拉桥结构可靠性评估及剩余寿命预测(博士论文)[D].成都:西南交通大学,2006
[130]敬大德.在役RC桥梁基于可靠度的耐久性分析(硕士论文)[D].西安:长安大学,2006
[131]公路桥梁承载能力检测评定规程(报批稿),2005
[132] GB/T 50283-1999,公路工程结构可靠度设计统一标准[S]
[133]项海帆.高等桥梁结构理论[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2001
[134] JTG D60-2004,公路桥涵设计通用规范[S]
[135]索清辉.基于概率理论的既有桥梁承载力评估方法研究(博士论文)[D].成都:西南交通大学,2005
[136]顾岚(译).时间序列分析预测与控制[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2003
[137]常大民,江克斌.桥梁结构可靠性分析与设计[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,1995
[138]张俊芝.服役工程结构可靠性理论及其应用[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2007
[139]吕颖钊.在役混凝土桥梁可靠性评估与寿命预测研究(博士论文)[D].西安:长安大学,2006
[140] JTG D62-2004,公路钢筋混凝土及预应力混凝土桥涵设计规范[S]
[141]陈传尧.疲劳与断裂[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2002
[142]卢文祥,杜润生.机械工程测试·信息·信号分析[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2006
[143]程正兴(译).时间序列分析的小波方法[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2006
[134]张善文,雷英杰,冯有前.Matlab在时间序列分析中的应用[M].西安:西安电子科技大学出版社,2007