摘要
旅游流是现代旅游学研究的重要问题之一,也是目的地发展旅游业的重要前提和基础。入境旅游是一个国家或地区创收外汇、解决劳动力就业的重要渠道,其发展状况是衡量这个国家或地区旅游经济发展的重要指标和依据,同时也是度量该国或地区旅游产业国际化水平和产业成熟度的重要标志。目前国内外关于入境旅游流的研究主要侧重于时空特征、集聚扩散规律等的分析,而立足目的地视角的入境旅游流和目的地之间关系的研究尚不多见。本研究基于经济学供需视角,通过构建入境旅游流驱动和城市目的地响应系统模型,从宏观和微观层面、统计数据量化模型和实地市场调研相结合,对两个系统的耦合协调关系做出了深入、系统的分析。研究成果对于旅游空间结构研究、城市构建可持续旅游发展战略、优化旅游产业结构、促进入境旅游产品和服务升级,都具有积极的理论和实践意义。
论文依托国家自然科学基金项目“中国典型区域入境旅游流东—西递进空间演化机理研究”和西安市政府重点项目“西安市旅游总体规划修编”。以统计资料数据和市场调查问卷数据为基础,将入境旅游流驱动和城市目的地响应之间的耦合协调关系作为研究对象,选择典型旅游城市西安为案例地,采用耦合协调度量化模型、相关分析、灰色关联分析、因子分析等多种定量方法,系统探讨入境旅游流驱动和城市目的地响应之间的耦合关系。在此基础上,通过实践调查进一步分析了入境游客对目的地供求协调度的感知评价,对上述的量化分析结果进行实践验证。
本论文的主要研究内容包括以下方面：
(1)提出和构建了入境旅游流驱动和城市目的地响应系统的相关概念及其模型,系统分析了各自的影响因素和构成要素。在理论铺垫的基础上对西安入境旅游流驱动特征和城市目的地响应系统进行了具体的实证分析和总结。
(2)运用耦合协调度量化模型及其数理分析方法,分析了西安入境旅游流和城市目的地两个耦合系统在近十年的耦合协调发展程度和变化情况,揭示了它们之间的特征和规律性,并针对研究结果进行了原因剖析和总结。
(3)在市场问卷调查数据基础上,运用SPSS和DPS等社会科学统计软件,采用相关分析、因子分析、灰色关联分析等方法对西安入境游客的感知评价和旅游动机进行分析,探索它们之间的相互关联性,重要的是对上述基于统计数据的量化模型分析结果进行了阶段性实践验证。
本论文研究得到如下主要结论：
(1)旅游目的地的入境旅游流是入境旅游的显性表现,是驱动旅游供给的外在推动力。入境旅游流驱动系统强调入境旅游的各个构成要素作为一种外在的、作用于城市目的地所产生的影响力。其驱动要素主要包括入境旅游者人数、旅游外汇收入、入境旅游者花费、停留天数等,这些要素之间彼此影响、相互联系。
(2)城市目的地响应系统的核心是供给侧研究。论文系统全面地分析了影响城市目的地响应的相关利益主体,构建了城市目的地响应系统及其概念模型。具体包括城市旅游环境、旅游接待设施、旅游交通和旅游服务子系统。现阶段国内外系统全面研究城市目的地供给响应系统的成果尚不多见。今后要更多地从宏观角度关注城市目的地供给侧研究、加强城市目的地响应及各个子系统的协调发展。
(3)入境旅游流驱动和城市目的地响应系统之间存在互动耦合关系,且耦合协调度处于动态变化过程之中,协调好两者之间的关系对城市入境旅游的发展具有积极意义。西安入境旅游流和城市目的地响应系统之间的耦合协调度在近十年间虽然出现过很多波动,但整体态势趋向良性发展。现阶段两个系统处于初级协调阶段,并有所波动。
(4)现阶段入境游客对西安城市响应系统感知评价为“一般”,感知满意度水平较低的主要是空气质量、清洁和卫生状况以及沟通交流等。旅游动机可以归结为体验和求知、声望和尊重、寻求刺激以及逃逸和放松。旅游动机的诉求和感知评价的研究结果相互印证。同时,基于市场调查的入境旅游者感知评价和基于量化模型分析的耦合协调度结论在现阶段趋于一致,上述的理论模型在实践中得到了有效验证。
论文创新之处在于：
(1)将供需视角引入入境旅游流的研究范畴,通过对入境旅游需求侧和目的地供给侧间的耦合关系研究,来揭示和探索入境旅游发展和目的地建设之间的关联互动影响。
(2)构建了入境旅游流驱动和城市目的地响应系统的概念模型。在总结和借鉴前人研究成果的基础上,对两个耦合系统及其内涵予以界定,并进一步阐述了其影响因素和构成要素。
(3)从宏观和微观层面对入境旅游流驱动和城市目的地响应之间的耦合关系进行研究。宏观层面利用官方统计数据,在耦合协调度数量模型的基础上分析了两个系统各项指标间的耦合关系,总结了其规律性和总体发展趋势；微观层面利用市场调查问卷数据,将入境旅游者对城市目的地响应的感知评价及其动机加以量化分析,对统计数据分析结果给予实践验证。
Tourism Flow is one of the significant issues in Modern Tourism Science research and tourist flow is also the important basis and premise of the development of tourism industry at destinations. Inbound tourism is a major channel for a country or an area to earn foreign exchange and resolve employment. The development status of inbound tourism is a major criterion for measuring the development of the country or an area's tourism economy, meanwhile, the important symbol for evaluating the internationalization and maturity of tourism industry. Study on the inbound tourist flow is mainly focused on the spatial and temporal characteristic and aggregation and diffusion laws but is seldom based on the destination's perspective of the relationship between inbound tourist flows and destination. This study bases on the perspective of supply and demand theory of economy, making in-depth and systematic analysis on the coupling coordination of the two systems by modeling inbound tourism flow drive and urban destination response from macro and micro levels, combined with statistical data quantization model and actual market survey. The research results will have theoretical and practical significance for tourism spatial structure study and for urban area to build a sustainable development of inbound tourism strategy, to optimize the structure of the tourism industry and to promote upgrading of inbound tourism products and services.
This research relies on the National Natural Science Foundation Project of China (NO.40771058)] and Xi'an municipal government's key projects of "Revision of Xi'an Tourism Overall Planning". Based on statistics released by the official government and information from personal involvement of market survey data, this study makes in-depth and systematic analysis on the coupling relationship of inbound tourism flow drive and urban destination response, which is regarded as the research object, by choosing Xi'an as an example, by using SPSS, DPS software and by adapting coupling coordination quantitative model, Correlation analysis, gray correlation analysis and factor analysis etc. On that basis, by using Practice investigation, the author further analyzes tourists'Perceptual evaluation, and tries to verify the above results from the quantitative analysis.
The core of this study includes the following points:
(1) puts forward and build related concepts of inbound tourist flow drive and urban destinations response systems, and systematic analyze their influential factors. And then the author verifies and summarizes Xi'an tourist flow drive features and urban destinations response system on the basis of the theoretical foundation.
(2) uses coupling coordination quantitative model and its mathematical analysis methods to analyze the development and changes of the two coupling systems of inbound tourism flow drive and urban destination response in Xi'an during the last decade, which reveals their characteristics and regularities between them, then analyzes and summarizes the results.
(3) Based on the field surveys, this paper analyzes perception evaluation and motivations of Xi'an inbound tourists by using SPSS and DPS software and by adopting methods of correlation analysis, factor analysis, gray correlation analysis, and then the linkages between them is found. What's more important is that confirms the above results at present stage, which are based on the quantitative models of official statistics.
The main work and conclusions are the followings:
(1) The inbound tourist flows at destinations is a dominant performance, and also an external driving force for tourism supply of them. The inbound tourist flow drive system mainly focuses on its nonstructural elements which act as an external influential force on urban destination. The elements include inbound tourist arrivals, international tourism receipts, inbound tourists expenditures and stay of length. All these elements affect each other and interrelated.
(2) The core of urban destination response system is the supply side study. The paper analyses relevant stakeholders that influence it and constructs urban destination response system and its conceptual model. It includes urban tourism environment, tourism facilities, tourism transportation and tourism service subsystems. At present, the research findings on urban destination response system are still rare. The supply side of urban destination should be concerned and the coordinated development of various subsystems of it should be strengthened.
(3) There exists coupling coordination relationship between inbound tourism flow drive and urban destination response systems, and it changes all the time. Coordination of the relationship between these two systems has positive significance to the development of urban inbound tourism. Although the coupling coordination between Xi'an inbound tourist flow drive and urban destination response systems exists many fluctuations during the past ten years, the overall trend towards benign direction. At present, the coupling coordination between these two systems of Xi'an is at primary stage of coordination, but still not stable.
(4) At present stage, the perceived evaluation of inbound tourists at Xi'an is "normal", the dissatisfaction relies on the air quality, cleanliness, hygiene, and the communication channels. The tourist motivation can be categorized as "experience and knowledge","prestige and respect","seeking stimulation ", and "escape and relax" Core of inbound tourist motivation and their evaluation research results confirms each other. Meanwhile, the inbound tourist perceived evaluation that based on market survey, and the coupling coordination that based on data model analyze tends to agree with each other at present stage, or say, the results of theoretical model analyze is verified by practice.
This article attempts to make innovations in the following areas:
(1) First, it is the research perspectives. By analyzing the coupling relationship between inbound tourism demand side and urban destination supply side to reveal and explore the interaction effects between inbound tourism development and the destination construction.
(2) Proposed the inbound tourist flow drive and urban destination response systems and their conceptual model respectively. On the basis of previous studies, the author defines two coupling systems and their connotations, and further discusses the influencing factors and elements.
(3) Research on the coupling relationship between inbound tourist flow drive and urban destination response from the macro and micro level. At the macro level, by using the statistical data of the government, the paper analyzes coupling coordination of the above mentioned systems, and summarizes the regularity and its general development trend as well. At the micro level, by using data collected by market survey, the author finds out inbound tourist perceived evaluation and tourist motivation of Xi'an by quantitative analysis, which gives prove to the statistical data analysis results in practice.
引文
①陕西师范大学旅游规划设计院,西安市旅游局.西安市旅游发展总体规划(修编),2011.9.
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