摘要
作为公共财政的一部分,粮食补贴问题一直是中国经济发展的重要议题。粮食不仅是人们生活的基本必须品,更是维护一国经济发展和政治稳定的战略基础,具有不可替代性。然而粮食产业是基础产业,具有弱质性特点,容易受到自然灾害和市场冲击的影响。基于此,当今世界许多国家特别是发达国家对粮食都采取了一定的粮食支持政策。由于中国的粮食生产和经营多半是以单个农户家庭来完成的,规模较小,经营分散,同时生产专业化程度低,效率低下,所以中国粮食产业的弱质性和低效性表现得更为突出,严重影响了中国粮食产业在国际市场上的竞争力。自2001年中国加入世界贸易组织以来,中国粮食产业面临的国际挑战越来越艰巨,而在国内,则突出表现为农业生产要素净流出,即农业资本投入不足,农业劳动力的人力资本匮乏和农村金融环境的恶化。所幸的是,为达到粮食增产、农户增收等目的,中央政府逐步推进农业税制改革,自2004年起逐步取消农业税,增加对粮食产业的财政支持力度,以保证国家粮食安全和农户收入的增加。如今,税收减免和财政补贴已逐渐成为解决“三农”问题的一个重要的政策安排。
近年来,中国政府虽然在不但加大对粮食产业的补贴力度,但是农户粮食生产的积极性似乎并没有因为粮食补贴政策的实施而得到显著的提高,粮食产量也并没有因为粮食补贴政策的实施而得到明显的提高,所以我们很有必要对当前的粮食补贴政策效应作出分析,探讨粮食补贴政策效应低下的原因,并就此对当前的粮食补贴政策提出可行的改革建议。
国外学者对于中国的粮食补贴的研究主要侧重于一般形式的补贴和专门的粮食补贴的规范研究,但对中国的粮食补贴问题研究得较少,而中国独特的发展状况和制度扭曲又表明出中国的独特性,比如二元经济现实等,因而这些基准的模型需要融入中国特殊的国情来设定才能更妥当地分析中国的农业问题和农业政策所可能的效应(比如价格扭曲和城乡差距)。
国内当前对农业补贴和粮食补贴的研究主要侧重从定性或者静态角度作分析。在模型分析上,国内的研究相对较为滞后,比如,静态分析较多,而对政策的动态效应研究较少,一般均衡分析的较少,相对忽略了资本和劳动等各要素在各部门之间的均衡配置；在经验分析上,运用宏观数据较多,但是相应的关于微观数据的调查分析则较少,使得研究结论缺乏可信性。
基于上述的分析,我们很有必要借鉴国际上关于补贴政策分析的经验,将国际上流行的动态一般均衡模型同中国的具体实际调查数据结合起来,对粮食补贴政策的效应做更深入的分析,以弥补现有文献分析所存在的不足。
本文通过建立动态模型,微观数据调查和计量分析来研究中国粮食补贴政策的效应。鉴于现行的粮食补贴政策方式,本文将现行的粮食补贴方式分为投资类的粮食补贴政策和收入性的粮食补贴政策,分别从单部门和多部门的情况下对两类粮食补贴政策的产出效应和福利效应做分析,结果显示：尽管当前的粮食补贴政策能够提高农户的生产积极性,但是由于受物价因素,农业部门相对于工业部门低的比较收益以及农户将拿到的补贴用于农业生产的比例不大的影响,当前的粮食补贴政策对粮食的产出效应并不显著；但是,如果政府的政策旨在提高农户的心理满足程度和福利水平,那么当前的粮食补贴政策在一定程度上还是起到了积极作用。
虽然本文的样本数量显得不足,但仍然可以在一定程度上说明当前的粮食补贴政策的产出效应并不明显,并为当前的农业补贴政策的改进提供政策上的建议。根据结果的分析,本文认为,如果政府的补贴政策旨在提高农户福利,增强农户对政府的信心,那么当前的政策基本上达到了要求；如果政府的补贴政策旨在提高农民生产的积极性从而提高粮食产量,那么当前的粮食投资性补贴政策在补贴方式上和补贴额度上尚需改进,同时还需要因地制宜,根据各个地区的特点制定不同的补贴方案,并创造适宜补贴政策实施的外部环境。
As part of public finance, food subsidies have been an important subject of China's economic development. Food is not only the basic necessities of life, but also the strategic basis to maintain a country's economic development and political stability which is irreplaceable. But food industry is basic industry with a characteristic weak, so it is vulnerable to natural disasters and market shocks. With a small elasticity of food demand, and a big elasticity of food supply, the imbalance of food supply and demand prones to affect market stability. Based on this, many countries in the world today, especially the developed countries have taken some food support policies.
As China's grain production and business are completed mostly by individual rural households of small-scale, with low degree of specialization and low efficiency of production, the weakness and ineffectiveness of Chinese food industry are more prominent in the international market which seriously affect the competitiveness of China's food industry in the international market. Since 2001, China has joined the World Trade Organization, and then China's food industry is facing increasingly tough international challenges in the form of net outflow of agricultural production factors, namely, the lackness of capital investment in agricultural production, the scarcity of agricultural human capital of labor force and the degradation of rural financial environment. Fortunately, to increase food production and households'income, the central government have gradually pushed forward the agricultural tax reform to phase out agricultural taxes, and increased financial support to food industry to ensure national food security and the increase farmers'income since 2004. Now, tax breaks and financial subsidies have gradually become important policy arrangements to solve the "three rural" issue.
But it is difficult to understand, in recent years, although the Chinese government has been increasing the food industry subsidies, householders'grain production enthusiasm do not improved significantly as well as the food production. So it is necessary for us to analyze the effects of current food subsidies, explore the reasons and thus put forward feasible proposals for the food subsidy policies.
Foreign scholars'study about China's grain subsidies mainly focused on the general form of subsidies and special specifications of food subsidies, but China's grain subsidies are studied less. The development model and the system distortion of China shows that China is unique, such as the dual economic reality, and thus the benchmark model need to integrate into China's special cases, to analyze its agricultural problems and the possible effects of agricultural policies (such as price distortions and urban-rural gap).
The current domestic research about agricultural subsidies and food subsidies are primarily focused on the points of qualitative or static analysis. In the model analysis, the domestic research is relative hysteretic. for example, static analysis is more but the dynamic effect analysis is less; general equilibrium analysis is less which leads to the relative neglect of the balancing equipment of elements of capital and labor in each sector. In the empirical analysis, macro data is used more, but the corresponding analysis on the micro-survey data is used less, which makes the research findings are lack of credibility.
Based on the above analysis, it is necessary to learn from international experience in policy analysis on subsidies and combine the international dynamic general equilibrium model with China's specific survey data to do more in-depth analysis on the effect of food subsidy policies to make up for shortcomings of the existing literatures.
The effects of China's grain subsidies are analyzed through the establishment of dynamic model, the micro data investigations and quantitative analysis. Given the current policy the current food subsidies are divided into two categories respectively, namely food subsidies for investment and food subsidies for income. The effects of production and welfare of the two type subsidies are probed from single-sector and multi-sectoral cases respectively. The results showed that: Although the current food subsidy policy can increase farmers'production enthusiasm, the effect of production is not significant due to price factors, the lower income of the agricultural sector compared with the industrial sector, and the ratio of subsidies used for production by farmers; However, if the government policies aim at improving the psychological satisfaction and welfare level of households, then the current policy of food subsidies have played an active role from a certain degree.
Although the sample size of this dissertation appears inadequate, it still can explain that the current output effect of food subsidy policy is not obvious and give some policy recommendations for the current agricultural subsidy policies. According to the results of the analysis, this dissertation argues that if the government subsidies aim at improving the welfare of farmers and enhancing farmers'confidence, then the current policies have basically reached the requirements; if the government's subsidy policies aim at increasing the enthusiasm of farmers to increase grain production, then the current investment subsidy policies are still needed to be improved from the way and the amount of subsidies, as well as the consideration of region differences to implement subsidy policies appropriated to their local conditions.
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