摘要
信息化已成为一个国家现代化和综合国力的重要标志。县域经济是我国国民经济的重要组成部分和基层的运行单元,在国计民生中占有重要地位,也是社会主义新农村建设的最基本的经济支撑。因此,大力推进县域经济信息化,对进一步增强县域经济竞争力,促进县域经济快速发展,全面实现建设小康社会,解决“三农”问题、统筹城乡发展起着非常重要的作用。本文运用系统理论思想,利用经济增长理论、复杂网络理论与系统动力学方法,分析了信息化对县域经济的微观与宏观促进机制。主要工作和内容如下:
(1)总结了国内外县域经济信息化发展的内涵,分析了我国县域经济信息化发展中存在的主要问题。即信息基础设施薄弱、信息资源开发利用水平低、信息化人才缺乏,信息接受群体基础素质差、信息化政策环境不健全、城乡信息化差别大等,指明了今后的建设方向。
(2)根据我国县域经济信息化发展的当前状况及存在的问题,给出了县域经济信息化的几种科学发展模式,即资源共建模式、中介服务模式、ASP服务模式和信息入户模式。并用实际例子说明了典型模式的应用状况及其效果。针对信息入户模式,运用复杂网络理论与方法,通过构建农村知识或信息传播网络,从微观上讨论了几种信息化技术手段对农村农业知识传播的影响。由于知识是推动经济发展的重要因素,进而间接分析了信息化对县域经济的微观促进机制。
(3)基于信息化指标体系构建的基本原则,根据县域经济信息化当前的发展现状及发展模式,并结合县域经济信息化指标构建的依据及其特殊性,本文构建了反映县域经济信息化水平的指标体系。指标体系由六个基本信息要素组成,分别是信息资源开发利用水平、信息基础设施、信息技术的应用、信息化人才、信息化消费水平、信息产业发展水平。每个基本信息要素通过不同的指标来衡量。采用层次分析法,确定了各要素与指标的权重,给出了计算县域经济信息化水平的计算公式。
(4)根据系统动力学的基本知识及建模步骤,结合县域经济的特点,分析了河北省某县经济系统中信息化水平与各产业要素的因果关系,建立了县域经济系统的系统动力学模型并测定模型所需要的各种参数。在验证了模型的有效性后,讨论了信息化对各产业产值、劳动力转移等因素的影响,进而从宏观上分析了信息化对县域经济的宏观促进机制。
Informationization has become an important symbol of a country's modernization and overall strength. Intra-county economy, as an important part as well as primary unit of our country's economy, has great effect on national well-being and the people's livelihood. Meanwhile, it also supports the construction of a new socialist countryside. Hence promoting the intra-county economy informationization will exert positive influence on aspects such as enhancing economic competitiveness, advancing economic development, building a well-off society in all-round way, solving the problems of agriculture, rural area and farmer, and balancing urban and rural development. In this dissertation, based on the system theory, the effect mechanisms of informationization on intra-county economy at micro and macro levels have been analyzed by applying the economic growth theory, complex network theory and system dynamics methods. The main works of this dissertation are summarized as follow:
(1)By summarizing current development contents of intra-country informationazation at home and abroad, the main problems existing in development of intra-country economic informationazation have been analyzed and concluded, namely, weak information infrastructure, low-level development and utilization of information resources, scarce of informational-based talents, poor basic quality of information receivers, unsound policy environment for informationization, large gap between urban and rural informationazation and so on. These analyses will point out the future development directions.
(2)Based on current situation and problems in intra-county economic informationization in our country, this dissertation has proposed several scientific development modes, including resources co-construction mode, intermediate service mode, ASP service mode and information entering family mode. Their applications and effectiveness have been introduced by some practice examples. Special discussions have focused on information entering family mode. By applying the complex network theory and method, the knowledge or information spreading network in a village has been constructed and then effects of information entering family mode on the agricultural knowledge diffusion in rural areas have been analyzed. Since knowledge plays a significant role in economic development, above discussion has given an indirect micro-analysis to the effect of informationization on intra-county economy.
(3) Based on the principle of index system construction on informationization, index system for evaluation on intra-county economic informationization has been constructed according to the current situation and development modes of intra-county economic informationization as well as the particularity of index system construction on intra-county economic informationization. The index system includes six information elements, namely, development and utilization of information resources, information infrastructure, information technology applications, information-based talents, information consumption and development of information industry. Every information element has been measured by several different indexes. By applying the analytic hierarchy process, the weights of information elements and indexes have been ascertained and then the formula for evaluation on intra-county economic informationization has been presented.
(4) Based on the knowledge and modeling process of system dynamic method and combined with the characteristic of intra-county economy, the causalities between informationization and elements of industry in a intra-county in Hebei have been analyzed and then a system dynamic model on this intra-county economic system this has been established. All parameters in the model have been determined. After testing the validity of this model, the effects of informationization on industry output and labor transfer have been discussed. Above discussion has given a macro-analysis to the effect of informationization on intra-county economy.
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