摘要
发展现代农业是完善产业结构,促进农村走上繁荣、农民走上富裕道路的必由之路。但由于各种历史的原因,我国从传统农业向现代农业全面转型的进程还比较缓慢,尤其是在广大中西部地区,农业转型的形势还非常严峻,落后的农业发展方式现在已成为了我国经济能否持续健康发展的瓶颈问题之一。而传统农业向现代农业转型的主要障碍就是缺乏足够的资金支持,尤其是缺乏有效的金融支持。
财政涉农资金和金融支农借贷资金是农业资金投入的主要部分,二者对农业生产来说并无本质的区别。因此本文首先将财政涉农资金投入和金融支农借贷资金投入之和作为一个自变量(即农业外部投入资金),来实证研究农业外部资金投入对农业发展的影响；然后,基于最优化规模视角分析评价我国农业外部投入资金支持农业发展的现状。结论是,农业外部资金投入对农业经济增长的影响呈现出显著的正相关,但我国目前的农业外部资金投入明显不足,应当增加对农业的投资,农业外部资金投入的最优规模应是2009年实际农业资金投入规模的1.354倍。在上述实证研究之后,本文接着分别对我国金融借贷资金支持现代农业发展的供需特征进行了分析,并且基于金融相关率视角对支农金融借贷资金供求缺口做出了测算。
之后,本文运用博弈论等理论方法,分析了均衡条件下金融支农借贷资金的最优总量、支农借贷资金提前撤资比率、借款农业生产者的均衡违约概率等重要问题。研究结论是：(1)支农贷款主体的风险规避系数越小、市场利率越低、所投资项目的预期投入产出率越高、借款农业生产者违约的概率越小、支农借贷资金提前撤资所受到的边际处罚越小,均衡支农贷款总量就越大。(2)所投资农业项目的预期投入产出率越低、借款农业生产者违约的概率越大、项目自有资金与借入资金的比例越小、支农借贷资金提前撤资可能引起的项目边际损小,支农借贷资金提前撤资的可能性就越大。(3)所投资项目的自然状态越好、支农贷款利率越低、支农借贷资金提前撤资所受边际处罚越小,借款农业生产者的均衡违约概率就越小。
最后通过概括对比分析,归纳出国外金融资金支持农业发展的主要经验借鉴和启示,提出了相应的促进金融资金支持我国现代化农业发展的政策建议：(1)建立和完善多元化的农村金融体系以培育竞争机制；(2)提供多方位的支撑以树立金融借贷资金支农的信心；(3)积极引导农业产业化经营以提高农业的组织化程度。
本文的主要理论创新之处在于：本文将财政涉农资助资金和金融支农借贷资金之和作为一个自变量(即农业外部投入资金),实证研究农业外部资金投入对农业经济增长和农民人均纯收入增加的影响,并在理论上分析了基于农业经济增长视角的农业外部投入资金的最优化规模。其次,本文对金融借贷资金支农博弈行为进行了分析,并得出了关于均衡条件下的金融支农借贷资金最优总量、支农借贷资金提前撤资比率、借款农业生产者的均衡违约概率、以及财政涉农资助资金和金融支农借贷资金各自的重点投入领域等重要问题的研究结论。
其理论和实际意义在于：本文的研究成果可为完善我国金融支农体系、解决农村金融抑制和农业金融约束问题提供一定的参考。其次,有利于为农村金融改革提供理论指导,深化我国农村金融改革,改革支农金融体系,必须要顺应金融借贷资金的性质和各种金融借贷资金支持农业和农村发展的行为特征,借鉴发达国家的成功经验。
Developing modern agriculture is the only way to improve industrial structure, promote prosperity of the countryside and make famers rich. However, due to various historical reasons, the process of transition from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture is relatively slow in China, especially in the vast central and western regions, where the situation of agricultural transition is very grim. China's backward development mode in agriculture has become one bottleneck of its sustainable, healthy economic development. Major obstacle in the process of transition from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture is lacking sufficient capital support, especially lacking efficient financial support.
Agro-oriented special funds and agriculture-supporting loans are major parts of funds investing in agriculture, and there is no essential difference between them for agriculture production, so in this thesis these two funds are added and the sum serves as an independent variable (namely external invest funds for agriculture), to empirically study the influence of the external invest funds on agricultural development. Then the thesis evaluates current situation of agricultural development supported by external invest funds based on a perspective of optimal scale. The conclusion is that the influence of external invest funds on agricultural economic growth presents a significant positive correlation. But now in our country external invest funds for agriculture are obviously insufficient, and we should increase investment in agriculture. The optimal scale of external invest funds for agriculture should be1.354times as large as the actual scale of external invest funds in2009. After above empirical study, the thesis separately analyzed the characteristics of supply and demand of agriculture-supporting loan, and then calculated the gap between supply and demand based on financial interrelations ratio.
Then theories including game theory methods were used to analyze the optimal total quantity of agriculture-supporting loan in equilibrium, the rate of advanced capital withdrawal, defaults rate of loan in equilibrium. The conclusions are:(1) the smaller the risk aversion coefficient is, the lower the market interest rate is, the higher the expectant input-output ratio is, the lower the defaults rate of loan is, the less the marginal damage for advanced capital withdrawal is, then the total quantity of agriculture-supporting loan in equilibrium will be more;(2) the lower the expectant input-output ratio is, the higher the defaults rate of loan is, the smaller the ratio of own fund to borrowed fund is, the less the marginal damage for advanced capital withdrawal is, then the possibility of advanced capital withdrawal will be greater;(3) the better the natural state of an investment project is, the lower the interest rate of agriculture-supporting loan is, the less the marginal damage for advanced capital withdrawal is, then defaults rate of loan in equilibrium will be lower.
Finally by summarization of contrastive analysis, the thesis concluded the experience and lessons we should learn from other countries on capital support in agriculture development and puts forward policy suggestions of promoting modernized agriculture development by supplying more capital support:(1) establishing and completing diversified rural financial system to foster competition mechanism;(2) supplying support in many ways to improve confidence in agriculture-supporting loan;(3) actively directing agriculture operation industrialization to improve the systematization degree of agriculture.
The main theoretical innovation of this paper is:The sum of agriculture-related special fund and agriculture-supporting loan were took as the agriculture external invest funds. Empirical study was made on the influence of external invest funds on agricultural economic development and farmer's average per capita net income. The thesis theoretically analyzed the optimal scale of external invest funds based on the perspective of agriculture development. The thesis then analyzed the game behavior in agriculture-supporting loan and reaches the conclusion about the total optimal quantity of agriculture-supporting loan in equilibrium, the rate of advanced capital withdrawal of the agriculture-supporting loan, the defaults rate of agricultural producer under loan in equilibrium, the respectively important investing fields of agriculture-supporting loan and agro-oriented special funds, and other important issues.
Its theoretical and practical significance is:The research achievement of the thesis can serve as reference in improving financial supporting system of agriculture, and solving the problems of rural financial repression and agricultural financial restraint. Then it is also conducive to providing theoretical guidance for rural finance reform, to deepening rural finance reform and to reforming agriculture-supporting system of finance. It is necessary to conform to the nature of financial loan and the operation characteristics of all kinds of financial loans supporting agricultural and rural development, and to learn from successful experience of advanced countries.
引文
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