摘要
随着城市群和区域经济一体化的发展,城市化与城市交通机动化水平的提升,在城市中心区与外围组团、卫星城镇之间的联系无论数量和性质都在发生巨大变化的形势下,区域层次出行需求的研究上还存在很多不足,难以满足区域综合交通运输系统规划建设的需要。区域交通出行与城市交通出行的区别很大,进行区域交通需求分析时并不能简单套用传统的四阶段法之类的城市交通需求模型,而应根据区域出行需求特征,研究开发相应的区域交通需求模型来实现对区域出行需求的准确分析和预测。
基于此,针对区内主通道上这一层次的出行需求,将对外出行作为联系区域交通出行和城市交通出行的媒介,提出了城市与区域一体化的出行需求分析的系统框架及技术路线,构建了对外出行需求分析的模型体系。本论文的主要研究内容包含以下几个方面：
1.通过对当前城市和区域交通出行需求预测研究和实践中存在问题的深入分析和总结,以及对区域交通出行和城市交通出行的系统分析,揭示了区域中心城市与各主要节点之间的“流通质”即是中心城市和各主要节点的“对外出行”这一本质,确立了城市市区出行需求与区域出行需求二者联系的媒介就是城市及区域主要节点的对外出行这一基本思想,以此为基础提出了城市与区域一体化的出行需求分析的系统框架和技术路线。
2.在归纳总结国内外相关交通调查经验的基础上,对城市对外交通系统及对外出行行为调查的基本理论及方法进行了全面系统的阐述,并对交通小区划分、SP调查方案设计等问题进行了讨论。以深圳市对外出行调查为例进行了调查方案设计和调查实施的详细说明,并对深圳市对外出行者的社会经济特征、对外出行特征以及对外出行在市内的空间分布特征进行了分析总结。
3.对现有传统需求预测“四阶段法”以及区域、城际出行需求预测模型进行了研究和改进,针对深圳及珠三角区域的实际情况,构建了区域城市群范围内的城市对外出行需求模型系统,形成了以MNL模型为基础的一体化多层次NL模型体系结构,模型体系包括对外出行发生、目的地选择、干线交通方式选择和接续交通方式选择这四个层次,并通过Logsum变量实现了各个阶段模型之间的联系和反馈。
4.对模型系统各个阶段子模型的基本原理、影响因素分析、效用函数设定、参数标定及统计检验进行了详细地阐述和说明。其中通过基于非集计模型的对外出行频率模型和目的地选择模型来预测对外出行的发生和分布,与原单位发生法、重力模型等集计模型相比,更能反映交通网络、出行阻抗及外部环境变化对出行发生和分布的影响。考虑到区域短通道出行中的接续交通过程花费的时间占出行全过程时间的比例较大,对选择哪一种干线交通方式有很大的影响,因此构建了干线交通方式和接续交通方式联合选择模型,可较好地解决这一问题。
5.考虑到当前需求预测存在的问题以及未来发展的不确定性和复杂性越来越强这一事实,提出了应该对出行需求预测进行决策分析的观点,分析了对出行需求预测进行决策分析的必要性以及出行需求预测中存在的决策问题,对此,提出了以情景规划方法来进行出行需求预测的决策分析,并阐述了将情景规划法应用于出行需求预测的决策分析的具体步骤。
综上所述,论文对城市对外出行调查、对外出行特征、对外出行需求模型、需求预测的决策分析等进行了较为全面深入的探索和研究,可为区域综合交通运输系统规划及需求预测、城市对外交通系统规划及需求预测等提供理论及方法支持,具有较强的理论意义和实用价值。
With the development of urban agglomeration and integrative regional economic, and enhancement of urbanization and urban transport motorization, the amount and character of the trip between urban and satellite town have changed very much. Therefore, research on the regional travel demand are still insufficient to meet the need of planning and construction of regional integrated transport system.Regional trip and urban trip are very different, traditional four-step urban travel demand model isn't adapt to analyze regional trip, we should according to the regional travel demand characteristics, research and development relevant regional travel demand model to achieve the accuracy analysis and forecasting of regional travel demand.
Based on this, the paper aimed at the travel demand on the main corridor of the region, taking external trip as the linkage of the regional trip and urban trip, presented the framework and technical route of integrated urban and regional travel demand analysis, constructed the model system of external travel demand analysis. The main contents of this paper include the following:
1. Through the in-depth analysis and summary of the current problem of urban and regional transport travel demand forecasting research and practice, and the system analysis of the regional trip and urban trip, open out the essence that the flow quality between the center city and the main node in the regional is the external trip of the center city and the main node in the regional, establish the basic idea that the contact media of the regional trip and urban trip is the external trip of the center city and the main node in the regional, based on this, presented the framework and technical route of integrated urban and regional travel demand analysis.
2. On the foundation of summarized the experience of travel survey at inland and overseas, expatiated the basic theory and methods of the urban external transport system and external travel behavior survey, and the issues of the split of travel analysis zones and SP survey design have been discussed. Taking Shenzhen external trip survey as an example, explicated the survey design and implementation, and the socio-economic characteristics of Shenzhen's external trip maker, external trip characteristics, and external trip in the city's spatial distribution characteristics are analyzed and summarized.
3.This paper studied and improved the existing traditional "four-step method", regional and inter-city travel demand forecasting model, aimed at the actual situation of Shenzhen and the Pearl River Delta region, constructed urban external travel demand model system within the scale of the urban agglomeration, formed an integrated multi-level NL model structure based on MNL models, the model system included the external trip generation model, destination choice model, main mode choice model and access mode choice model, and achieved linkage and feedback of each model through Logsum variable.
4. The basic principle, influencing factors, the utility function settings, coefficient calibration and statistical tests of each sub-model were explained in detail and description.Which disaggregate model-based external trip frequency model and destination choice model to predict the generation and distribution of external trip, compared to the original unit generation method and gravity model, they could better reflected the impact of the transportation network, travel impedance and external environmental changes on the trip generation and trip distribution. Due to the short distance of intercity corridor, the time spent on urban traffic and waiting at the two terminals of the city occupies a majority of the whole trip, which has a great impact on traveller's main mode choice, therefore, established combined model of main mode choice and access mode choice, the combined model can solve this problem.
5.Taking into account the current demand forecasting problems and the fact that the future development of growing uncertainty and complexity, suggested that we should make decision analysis on travel demand forecasting, analyzed the necessity to make decision analysis of travel demand forecasting and the existing decision problem of travel demand forecasting, withal, put forward a scenario planning method to make decision analysis of travel demand forecasting, and described the specific steps in the scenario planning method used in decision analysis of travel demand forecasting.
In conclusion, this paper made comprehensive and in-depth exploration and research on urban external travel survey, external trip characteristics, external travel demand model and decision analysis of travel demand forecasting etc, could provide theoretical and methodological support on regional comprehensive transportation system planning and demand forecasting, urban external transportation system planning and demand forecasting etc, and has strong theoretical and practical value.
引文
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