摘要
在全球气候变化的背景下,湖北省夏季气候已发生明显变化。与其它地区显著不同的是湖北夏季气温有明显的降低趋势,近年相伴频繁出现的“夏凉”对水稻生产已造成严重影响,成为湖北省水稻生产中的一种重要的农业气象灾害。
根据湖北水稻盛夏低温冷害指标,利用ArcGIS和数理统计方法对湖北省水稻种植区域内的盛夏低温冷害的变化规律从时、空、强等角度进行分析,并对冷害强度状态变化进行M-K突变分析。通过对湖北省水稻盛夏低温冷害的变化特征分析,并结合全省水稻生产的基本情况,探讨盛夏低温冷害对水稻的影响,主要包括水稻对冷害的敏感性和适应性评估,最终作湖北水稻盛夏低温冷害的风险分析,得到结论如下:
1)在气候变化的背景下,湖北盛夏冷害高发区域范围扩大强度增强。鄂西山区灾害发生几率较往年更加频繁。特别是2001～2006年,在统计的74个站点中,发生冷害的站点约达到一半,是1971-2006年36年平均值的2倍;
2)通常盛夏冷害在湖北的发生发展大致可分为四个阶段。即大致首先在鄂西南地区发生,扩展到整个鄂西山区且强度加大、持续时间增长,接着在较低海拔的东部地区大范围发生。大致8月底后,高海拔的鄂西南个别地区还会发生一到两次强度较弱的冷害;
3)2001～2006年盛夏低温冷害持续天数有明显的增大,鄂西地区比东部大,而鄂西北比西南大。近年来盛夏低温冷害对江汉平原部分中稻产地影响比较严重,主要也是冷害持续时间延长、强度增大的结果;
4)灾害的强度状态在1971～2006年里大概经历了两次突变过程。第一次突变开始时段是1988～1993年,灾害强度由强转弱。到了2002年左右盛夏低温冷害开始第二次突变,强度增强了三倍左右。
5)从水稻对冷害的敏感性上分析,鄂西北总体上属于高敏感性地区,而鄂西南则属于低敏感性地区。江汉平原中的钟祥、宜城、枣阳、荆门、荆州、潜江、监利、石首一带以及长阳、五峰土家族自治区范围内,是另外两个敏感度高值区域。鄂东低山丘陵地区也是敏感性最复杂的地带之一。武穴、阳新和红安是全省敏感度最高值的地区,广水、安陆、随州和京山一带是次高值区。这些地区在分析的30多年来盛夏低温冷害发生次数少,每次灾害均导致这些地区水稻产量锐减;
6)水稻对盛夏低温冷害的适应性呈现中部平原地区高,东西山区丘陵地区较低的分布状况。湖北省中部以钟祥为中心是水稻冷害适应性高值。其中,鄂东地区的适应性比西部高,但低于中部的适应度,且自北向南适应度递减。鄂西地区是相对低适应度地区,且鄂西南适应性比鄂西北要低,等值线分布稀疏。在鄂西南和鄂西北交界的秭归附近,是适应性低值中心;
7)水稻盛夏低温冷害风险区划综合考虑了灾害变化特征、水稻自身对灾害的敏感性和适应性而得出的结论。分析结果与历史事实基本相符,具有一定的指导意义。东经111.25°以西的鄂西山地属于冷害风险较大的区域。其中,鄂西北地区的风险比鄂西南的大。长阳、五峰土家族自治区范围内灾害发生也比较频繁,强度较大,且该地区的水稻对盛夏冷害敏感性较高,适应性较低,故也属于风险最大的地区之一。东经111.25°以东地区水稻盛夏低温冷害的风险较弱,但在钟祥、随州、宜城附近,通城、通山附近以及荆州部分地区仍须警惕盛夏低温冷害的威胁。
综上所述,态势明显增强的盛夏低温冷害,已经并将可能继续严重影响湖北省水稻的安全生产,成为湖北省水稻生产中必须高度警惕的自然气象灾害。对湖北水稻盛夏低温冷害进行深入研究,把握其发生规律,有利于在生产过程中采取有效的防灾减灾措施,从而达到保证水稻稳产高产,维护粮食安全的目的。
As a consequence of global warming, the climate in Hubei province has changed apparently. Compared with other regions, one of the notabilities is that the temperature in summer is depressing obviously, with which chilling injury in summer; one of the main weather disasters of rice crop in Hubei province is concomitant.
Applied the widely used index of chilling injury in summer about the rice, based on ArcGIS technique and Mann-Kendall test, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the target disaster are discussed thoroughly. After the overall analysis on the characteristics of this disaster and the general facts of the rice production in Hubei, the impact of the chilling injury in summer on the rice could be found. Like the sensitivity and the flexibility of the rice toward the disaster, and the risk analysis on the rice chilling injury in summer are come to the conclusion in this paper. And the main conclusions can be expressed as follows:
1) In the background of the climate change, this disaster has an obviously increasing tendency and covers not only in E'Xi Area but also in JiangHan Plain nowadays. The intensity of chilly injury changs abruptly twice in the period of 1971 to 2006 and is getting stronger from the beginning of the 21~(st) century.
2) Commonly, the process of the chilling injury in summer can be divided into 4 stages, arising stage, developing stage, west-fading stage and the clearing-off stage. Usually it begins from the E'XI-NAN, and then spreads through the whole E'XI mountainous area, where the disaster is getting stronger and lasts longer. Striding over the line of 111.25°E,, the disaster is covering the entire eastern part, and fading fast westward. Finally, it clears away from the southwest part of Hubei province.
3) The duration of this disaster is getting longer recently. And E'XI is lasting longer than the eastern part, while E'XI-BEI longer than E'XI-NAN. Lately, the main rice production area JIANG-HAN plain is suffered serious chilling injury disaster in summer, where the intension of the disaster is getting strong and the duration longer obviously than before.
4) The intensity of chilly injury changes abruptly twice in the period of 1971 to 2006 and is getting stronger from the beginning of the 21st century. The first time begins in 1988-1993, when the intense changes from strength to weakness. Around the year of 2002, it increases up to 3 times than before, that is the second time of abrupt change.
5) As a whole, the sensitivity distribution in space is extremely uneven. E'XI-BEI Area is the high sensitivity region while the E'XI-NAN is low. The uplands of eastern Hubei are one of the complicated sensitivity distribution parts. The regions including Wuxue, Yangxin, and Hong'an are the highest sensitivity area, while it is the second highest in the areas of Guangshui, Anlu, Suizhou and Jingshan. All these stations above are seldom suffered the chilling injury in summer in the 30 years, but the rice productions are usually reduced greatly if the disaster attacks them.
6) In the middle part of Hubei, the adaptation about the rice towards the chilling injury in summer is higher than the east and the west uplands areas. Zhongxiang is the center of the highest adaptation region. What's more, the east is higher than the west part, and is reducing from the north to south. E'XI is the low adaptation region and it is reducing from the north to south, too. Zigui is the center of the lowest adaptation part.
7) Considering over the characteristics of the disaster, the sensitivity and the adaptation of the rice towards the disaster, the risk analysis on the rice chilling injury in summer is educed. The result, that quite matches with the history facts, can play as a guidance role in the rice production. E'XI mountainous area, the west from 111.25°E, is one of the most dangerous parts of rice chilling injury in summer, where the north is more dangerous than the south. Changyang and Wufeng is another most dangerous region, where the disaster is frequent and intense, and the rice sensitivity is high while the adaptation is low. The risk in the east part from 111.25°E is lower. But it still calls for pay attention on the disaster in Zhongxiang, Suizhou, Yichen, Tongshan and Tongchen, and somepart of Jingzhou.
In summary, these extreme weather events lead to a serious damage and a higher risk to the middle season rice production than before, therefore the monitoring, forecast and precaution should be enhanced.
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