摘要
在过去的几十年间,关税税率的日趋降低以及其他价格限制等方面传统贸易壁垒的逐渐削弱使产品供应链更加多元化,这对整个国际市场和国际经济关系产生了深远的影响。随着产品供应链在全球范围内的延伸,标准及认证在国际贸易中的作用和地位也日益凸显。在这一背景下,很多学者就标准与贸易的关系展开了研究,但是其中绝大部分文献仅仅关注了进口国特殊标准造成的贸易壁垒效果。国际标准对贸易影响的效果是怎样的?对贸易发展是促进还是阻碍?现有的研究并没有给出一个一致的令人满意的结论,而且鲜有针对发展中国家的研究。
IS09000质量管理体系是一个适用于不同规模、不同行业的国际标准。中国是采用IS09000标准认证数最多的国家。本文将以IS09000标准为代表研究国际质量标准对贸易的影响,试图回答以下几个重要问题：国际质量标准如何影响贸易发展?以IS09000标准为代表的国际质量标准对贸易产生影响的理论依据是什么?相关的实证研究是否支持理论层面上的推断?
在理论方面,本文基于新制度经济学的视角研究IS09000标准认证对贸易的影响。在宏观层面经济背景下,IS09000标准可视为一种非强制性的制度存在,标准认证从某种意义上为国际经济交往提供了一个可靠、有效的制度框架。IS09000标准通过产品质量信号显示机制、质量管理共同语言机制、产品质量问题解决机制这三大机制对贸易形成影响。总的来说,该标准主要是通过缓解进出口商信息不对称问题、降低贸易中的交易成本从而对贸易起到促进作用。本文还在拓展MQS模型的基础上,分析了消费者信息不完全条件下的认证实施前后的国际市场均衡情况,结果显示IS09000标准认证的实施会提高消费者对进口产品质量的预期并提高国际市场交易量。产品替代率与IS09000标准认证对贸易的拉动效应成正比,但消费者对产品真实质量的信息掌握程度与IS09000标准认证对贸易的拉动效应成反比。
本文的实证研究主要针对理论部分提出的围绕IS09000标准贸易效应的5个核心假说展开。首先,利用引力模型结合2008年36个经济体的相关数据研究了出口国和进口国IS09000标准认证增加对贸易产生的影响,同时关注发展中国家与发达国家在贸易效应方面的差异,将样本分为发达国家对发达国家出口组、发达国家对发展中国家出口组、发展中国家对发达国家出口组以及发展中国家对发展中国家出口组,进行了组间认证贸易效应的比较。其次,利用我国2001-2008年分行业数据研究IS09000标准认证贸易效应在行业间的差异。具体选取采矿采石业、食品饮料烟草、焦炭及精炼石油制品、纺织及纺织产品、皮革及皮革制品、木材及木制品、纸浆、纸及纸制品、化学品、化学制品及纤维、塑料橡胶业、非金属矿物制品、基础金属及金属制品、医药品、机械设备业和电子电气业这14个代表性行业。我们关注初级产品行业与制造业在IS09000标准认证贸易效应上的差异。最后,基于浙北101个纺织企业微观调研数据验证IS09000标准认证对企业出口能力的影响。鉴于认证中存在的自选性问题,即那些规模更大、拥有更多生产资源和更多出口的企业可能更容易弥补认证成本的投入而更倾向于认证。本文没有基于传统的回归模型来讨论认证的出口效应,而是对模型进行了平均效应处理。采用带协变量的双重差分法和核加权配对双重差分法(PSM-DID)对出口企业认证引起的出口量的平均增长量进行了估算,同时比较了短期(认证1年)和长期(认证3年)两个窗口期内IS09000标准认证贸易效应的差异。
本文的创新之处在基于新制度经济学研究国际质量标准对贸易的影响,为国际质量标准贸易效应的研究提供了新的理论框架；同时系统性研究了国别层面、行业层面、企业层面的实际情况。特别地,将平均效应处理方法引入对微观层面标准贸易效应的研究。文章得出的主要研究结论如下：第一,从宏观层面来看,IS09000标准认证在出口国和进口国的普及实施都会促进贸易的增长,但是出口国IS09000标准认证实施的贸易拉动作用更大。第二,由于发展中国家交易保障制度相对薄弱,发展中国家通过IS09000标准认证实施较之发达国家对出口拉动的效应更明显。第三,制造业IS09000标准认证的出口拉动效应会比初级产品行业显著。第四,从企业微观层面来看,IS09000标准认证的出口拉动效应在短期和长期内都是非常明显的,其中短期的出口拉动效应更为显著。
基于上述分析,本文最后提出了相应的政策建议,以期能够促进我国国际质量标准实施的出口拉动效应机制充分发挥作用。
In the past few decades, as traditional trade restrictions such as tariffs have declined, global product markets are undergoing profound changes involve interrelated shifts in multiple elements of export supply chains. Standards and certification become more important in international trade as the supply chains become more global. While there is a large literature on the economic theory of standards and trade, most of them focus on country-specific standards which create barriers to trade. How do international standards impact on international trade? Do they help or hinder trade? The literature reviewed does not provide a satisfied answer and there is limited work about the impact of interantioanl standards on the performance of developing country's trade.
As quality international standards, ISO9000 standards have a wide application regardless of company size and activity sector. China is the biggest country involved ISO9000 adoptions, but the effects of ISO9000 diffusion on trade have gone understudied. This paper explores the impact of ISO9000 standards as international quality management standards on the performance of trade. There are three main problems at present:How do international quality management standards impact trade? What is the mechanism of export and ISO9000 diffusion in conceptual framework? Is the key finding of empirical data line with theory conclusions?
In theory, this dissertation analyzes the mechanism of ISO9000 diffusion and export based on new institutional economics. We consider the economic impact of ISO 9000 adoption on country-pair economic relationships and supporting ISO9000 as representative of international voluntary institution. ISO9000 adoption providing dependable and efficient frameworks for international economic exchange.ISO 9000 standards via their quality-signaling, common-language, and conflict-settling property alter the costs involved with trade. In short, ISO 9000 as an international institution may reduce the transaction costs and information asymmetries between businesses from different nations, then enhance trade. We make a comprehensive analysis by using the minimum quality standards model with imperfect consumer's information to show that ISO 9000 standards changes the consumer's perception of produced qualities and increase equilibrium trade. The influence of ISO9000 standards is decreasing in the degree of substitutability between the two goods and increasing in the proportion of uninformed consumers.
Empirically, the paper tests five proposition involve the impact of ISO9000 standards on trade. First, the paper uses a gravity model of bilateral trade between 36 countries in 2008 to test the effect of home-nation and host-nation diffusion of ISO 9000 on trade, and focuses on the difference between developed nation and developing nation. There is an important difference across the export from developed nation to developed nation, the export from developed nation to developing nation, the export from developing nation to developed nation and the export from developing nation to developing nation. Second, the paper employs panel data of China over the 2001-2008 period to estimate the different sector's effects. We select fifteen sectors including mineral fuels, food, beverages& tobacco, processing of petroleum, coking, textile, leather, paper, chemical products, rubber & plastic, non-metallic mineral products, metal products, medicines, machinery &equipment, electrical products. The paper focuses on the difference between primary products sectors and manufacturing industries sectors. Third, based on the survey data of 101 textile firms in the northern Zhejiang Province, We assess the contribution of ISO 9000 adoption to the performance of export sales. It is possible that the firms of larger size, with greater productive resource and more export experience will be more likely to certify because these firms can recover additional costs of certification. As there is "self-selection into treatment" in certifications, we apply the treatment effect model and Kernel Propensity Score Matching Difference-In-Differences (PSM-DID) methods to estimate the causal effect of certification on the change in firms'export sales during short period (one year after certification) and long period(three years after certification).
The key point in this paper is that it creatively analyzes the impact of internatinal quality standards on trade based on new institutional economics, which offers new theoretical framework for the empirical research. This paper uses data from nations、sectors and firms to attains fruitful conclusions. Especially, we use ATE to assess the effects of ISO 9000 certification on firms'export sales. The main findings are as follows:First, from the macro-foundations, home-nation and host-nation diffusion of ISO 9000 certification are both likely to enhance exports, but the impact of home-nation diffusion is more robust than the impact of host-nation diffusion. Second, according to developing nations often experience institutional void, the export- pull effect of ISO9000 certification is to be most robust in developing nations. Third, the export-pull effect of ISO9000 certification is to be more robust in manufacturing industries than primary products sectors. Forth, from the micro-foundation, ISO 9000 certification will enhance firm's export sales and the treatment effect of certification on the change in firms'export sales during short period is more robust than long period.
Based on the above analysis, the paper presents the corresponding policy and expects export- pull mechanism of international quality standards to fully function in China.
引文
1中国标准化研究院.标准化若干重大理论问题研究[M].北京：中国标准出版社.2007：16.
2王金玉.《新世界技术标准国际竞争策略》[M].北京：中国计量出版社.2006：4
5王敏华、陈丽薇：《管理体系与认证(第二版)》,中国计量出版社,2010年8月,P17。
6徐寿光：《企业通过IS09001：2008认证必备手册》,中国标准出版社,2010年1月,P17。
7王新平：《企业质量管理体系认证有效性的实证》,知识产权出版社,2010年3月,P16。
21倾向得分配对方法以往出现在结构方程估计相关的文献中,如Heckman等(1997)、Ravallion(2006)、 Todd(2006)。近年来在对出口和生产率增长研究中使用较多,如Greenway等(2005)、Wagner (2002)、 Girma等(2004)、De Loecker (2007)。
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