摘要
改革开放以来,伴随我国社会经济迅猛发展的同时,也产生了诸如温室效应,空气污染,能源短缺等问题,特别是在近些年来,节能减排压力与日俱增。胡锦涛主席在2009年召开的联合国大会上承诺：中国要将能源消耗强度在2020年前降低40%---45%,并大力推广可再生能源的利用。在我国颁布的《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第12个5年规划纲要》中明确的指出,截至2015年,中国要将非化石能源占一次能源消费比重提高到11.4%,将提高每单位国内生产总值产生的能耗降低16个百分点,将CO2排放量下降17个百分点,其他主要污染物的排放量下降8到10个百分点。
2006年1月1日起施行的《中华人民共和国可再生能源法》将风能、水能、生物质能、太阳能、海洋能和地热能等非化石能源列为优先开发利用领域的国家重要资源。《国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要(2006-2020年)》(国发(2005)44号)将“可再生能源低成本规模化开发利用”作为能源重点领域的优先主题之一,指出应“重点研究开发地热能开发利用技术”。2007年,国务院出台关于节能减排工作方案的通知(国发[2007]15号),在通知中,明确的提出要加大发展利用可再生能源的力度,抓紧制订出台针对可再生能源的中长期规划,推进针对一切可以利用的可再生能源的开发和科研工作,并加强针对可再生能源的资源调查评价。
上世纪七八十年代,在原地矿部的领导下,我国开展了针对地热能资源评价和开发利用的调研工作,完成了20多个省市的调研工作,并选取重点地区进行了地热资源勘查工作。但我国的地热资源开发利用程度普遍较低,缺乏系统的地热资源开发利用经济评价。本论文在大量收集已有资料成果基础上,对我国地热资源城市地热开发利用进行经济评价研究,目的是初步掌握我国地热资源分布及开发利用情况,进行经济效益分析,为今后地热资源勘查开发提供参考,为大力发展地热能源、调整能源结构提供宏观决策依据。
本文以我国地热资源潜力和资源特点为基础,分析我国当前地热开发利用方式,结合国外先进技术经验,从典型区域项目经济评价入手,从理论上,分析地热能开发利用的经济评价指标体系和方法,为构建地热经济评价体系和方法提供案例和参考依据。
本篇论文收集全国地热资源相关文献资料和部分国外相关资料,并依靠学校图书馆和网络图书馆资源,收集相关学术资料,对文献材料进行梳理分析,寻找地热领域研究的研究点,把握最新产业发展动态。同时,通过与该领域专家座谈,交流以及实地调研,探讨地热产业目前面临的问题和瓶颈,与国外地热开发的先进经验比较研究,从个案入手,探讨经济评价对地热产业的影响作用。本文在经济评价基本原理的基础上,采用定性与定量相结合、微观分析和宏观分析相结合的研究方法,紧密结合地热资源和地热产业现状、政策导向和可持续发展等问题,建立相应的经济评价方法,对地热进行经济评价。
本文以理论分析为基础,实证分析为验证,将整个研究分九个部分。主要内容如下：
第一章导论。本章介绍了选题背景及意义、研究理论基础、研究的思路以及本篇论文的创新点。在当前发展可再生能源,替代传统化石能源是实现节能减排,缓解能源压力,保护生态环境的重要途径。我国为实现节能减排目标,改变能源结构方式,积极推进探索地热产业的发展。然而,我国的地热产业发展还需向规模化集约化目标前进。在地热资源的开发利用过程中,往往只关注于资源禀赋和技术水平,对于经济评价在地热项目中可发挥的作用,缺乏应有的重视。本文利用财务评价方法,分析地热开发经济效益,并用于个案项目分析。
第二章我国地热资源分布和资源储量估算。本章介绍了我国地热资源类型,我国地热资源分布规律及特征。地热资源指的是地球内部的可为人类经济开发和利用的热能资源,包括地热流体及其有用组分。地热流体是指温度高于25℃的地下热水、地热蒸气和热气体。地热资源是一种特殊的流体矿产清洁资源。可用于医疗、旅游、化工和农业生产等。不同的划分方式,可以将地热资源划分为不同类型。按热储的介质不同,可以将地热资源分为孔隙型地热资源、裂隙型地热资源和岩溶裂隙型地热资源。按地质构造成因的不同,可将地热资源分为沉积盆地型地热资源和隆起山地型地热资源。沉积盆地型地热资源又可分为断陷盆地型和拗陷盆地型地热资源,隆起山地型地热资源还可分为火山型、非火山型和深循型；按地热资源的热传输方式的不同进行分类,可将地热资源分为传导型地热资源和对流型地热资源。若按温度高低分类,可将地热资源分为温度高于150℃的高温地热资源、温度在90℃和150℃之间的中温地热资源以及低于90℃的低温地热资源。
我国的地热资源分布广泛,主要集中在我国东部地区、东南沿海、台湾省、环鄂尔多斯断陷盆地、藏南-川西-滇西等地区。沉积盆地传导型地热资源主要分布在琼雷盆地、松辽盆地和环鄂尔多斯断陷盆地等地区,以中低温地热资源为主。隆起山地对流型地热资源主要分布于东南沿海、台湾、藏南、川西、滇西和胶辽半岛等地区。我国的高温地热资源主要分布于藏南、滇西、川西和台湾地区。本章在资源类型划分和储量评估的基础上,对地热资源进行了相应的资源评价,为地热资源的开发利用提供第一手资料依据。
第三章我国地热资源开发利用现状及前景分析。本章包括我国地热资源市场现状、地热产业化进程、地热供暖现状、地热发电现状、地热直接利用现状以及现存问题和前景趋势分析。自上世纪八十年代,我国逐步由计划经济开始向市场经济过渡,一些企业开始涉足地热开发,特别是在一些地热资源较好的地区,投资促进了地热的产业化发展。地热产业初具规模于21世纪初期,近些年得到了快速的发展。目前我国地热供暖总面积已达2000万m2左右。其中天津市的地热资源开采量在2004年就已达到2468万m3,地热供热面积940万m2,占全国地热供热总面积的50%；北京自1975年利用地热能采暖,地热井出水温度达53.8℃,出水量90m3/h；辽宁利用40m地热井开采地热水进行室内供暖,地热水平均温度78℃,抽水量30t/h,供应1048m2建筑物采暖,当冬季室外温度达到零下-20℃时,室内温度仍可保持在20-25℃。在我国地热资源丰富的地区,利用地热采暖已初步取得良好的效果。例如在辽宁安波,利用地热采暖每年可节约成本约15万元。
目前,我国地热能开发利用存在来自于政策,技术,市场和资金等各方面条件的制约和影响。发展过程还存在一系列问题。但通过国家政府和企业及科研单位的共同努力,必将迎来地热能发展光辉的未来。
第四章国外地热资源开发利用政策与经验分析。本章介绍了国外主要地热产业政策,归纳了国外地热产业政策的特征,介绍了国外地热产业开发利用现状,并分析了国外地热产业政策对我国的借鉴意义。国外地热资源丰富的国家利用地热资源的历史早于我国,开发利用方式也较为先进和系统,有的已经形成了系统完善的开发利用体系。冰岛,日本等国的地热能源利用率已在本国能源结构中占据了较大比重。此外,国外的地热开发利用政策也比较完善和健全。人类利用地热从事商业开发利用已有百年之久。到1997年底,全球已有46个国家开始利用地热资源,全球地热发电量为44TWh/a,地热直接利用为38TWh/a。预计到2020年,全球地热发电量将达到318TWh,直接利用将达到140TWh。特别是地热热泵技术的采用,为地热能开发利用提供了更广阔的空间,利用热泵技术,可将7-12℃的地下水作为热源加以利用,极大程度上化解了地热资源分布局限性的先天制约影响。
目前,在整个能源结构中,除少数国家,地热能源的地位可以说是微乎其微,甚至与太阳能、风能、潮汐能等新能源比较,也是处于发展的初级阶段。但若将太阳能、风能、潮汐能与地热能进行比较,则会发现,地热是一种极具开发利用性的热源。
第五章水热型地热资源技术经济评价及案例分析。我国对于水热型地热资源的应用,
一般集中在供暖和温泉洗浴项目中。在本章中,首先分析了我国地热经济评价所依据的理论,详细介绍了财务评价和地热项目经济评价方法。构建了地热能资源经济评价的方法,指标体系和参数体系。本章以雄县,咸阳为例,分析其在利用地热供暖时的经济效益。以东营为例,进行以供暖为主,兼顾其他利用方式的地热经济效益评价。
第六章浅层地温能技术经济评价及案例分析。浅层地温能的开发利用技术,一般分为地源热泵技术,水源热泵技术,空气源热泵技术以及土壤源热泵技术等。目前我国对地源热泵技术的应用较为普遍,本章主要选择地源热泵地热资源开发进行经济评价分析,建立了与之相适应的经济评价方法指标参数体系,并对项目涉及的国民经济效益进行了评价分析。以沈阳和武汉项目为例,分析具体项目在利用地源热泵进行地热供暖时的经济效益。
第七章地热资源其他应用方式经济评价及案例分析。在我国,对于地热资源的利用十分广泛,包括发电,温泉洗浴,农业和工业利用等,在本章分析利用地热资源产生的经济效益时,为适应不同的开发利用方式,对经济评价有关方法指标等做了相应的调整。选取扬州为案例进行综合效益评价。
第八章我国地热能未来开发利用建议。目前我国地热产业发展中普遍存在着地热资源勘查程度偏低；资源家底不清；以利用地热水(气)为主而不是以利用热能为主；缺乏统一的开发利用规划；深部开发风险高、开采深度浅、利用程度偏低；全国缺乏统一的法规,管理制度不健全、存在多头管理等问题。这在一定程度上影响着地热开发利用的快速发展,需要通过政府提供政策扶持,完善技术提供保障,依靠市场为主导,获取科研团队支持来有效解决目前的诸多问题。
第九章结论。通过本文的研究得出：地热能项目开发利用经济评价是建立在区域划分和资源量计算的基础上。根据分区和计算的结果,结合当地的实际情况,结合工程经济学设计出适合地热能开发利用的工程项目。计算出地热能项目的经济效益情况,为国家政策出台,学术理论研究,特别是企业投资提供参考依据。
在市场经济的推动下,地热能的开发利用得到了快速的发展。尤其是近几年来,随着开发利用技术的不断进步以及人们认识程度的不断提高,全国各地涌现了地热能开发利用的热潮。目前,在供暖、生活热水、洗浴等方面,都达到了一定的规模,并初步形成地热产业。我国地热能的开发利用在取得了很大成就的同时,也还存在着开发利用水平不高、管理混乱等问题。地热能的开发利用既有优势,也有劣势。从经济的角度来看,如何评价地热能在竞争中的优势,对于整个地热能产业化的进程尤为重要。掌握评价地热能开发利用经济性的科学方法,是地热行业合理进行战略规划、顺利开展业务的关键所在,也是整个地热产业有序发展、实现资源优化配置的重要前提。
本文的创新之处主要表现在以下方面：
1、对狭义的水热型地热、浅层地温能、干热岩资源储量潜力进行了分类估算,其中对水热型地热资源又分别按照沉积盆地和隆起山分别进行估算。概略性的提出了我国广义地热能资源储量潜力总量。
2、论文明确提出,评价地热常用的折算标准煤指标和二氧化碳减排指标,适用于地热资源宏观经济评价,是地热开发利用宏观决策的主要依据。在地热开发项目微观经济评价的国民经济评价和项目决策中,可以作为参考指标。地热开发项目微观经济评价适用投资收益评价指标,利润是地热开发项目投资决策的主要依据。澄清了以往有关地热技术评价、经济评价,以及宏观经济评价、微观经济评价等混合反复使用等问题,使对地热的技术经济评价向更科学、更准确,迈出了重要一步。具有一定创新性,具有重要应用价值。
3、论文按照水热型地热和浅层地温能分类,分别选取具有代表性案例,较系统的建立了适用于不同类型地热资源的开发利用项目经济评价体系。一定程度上完善了地热的开发利用项目经济评价体系理论和方法,为政府决策,政策研究和市场投资提供参考依据。
In recent decades since the reform and opening up, the social economy has been developing rapidly. At the same time, problems such as the greenhouse effect, air pollution, energy shortages have come into existence. Especially under the pressure of the international community, stress on energy saving has been steadily on the increase. President Hu Jintao made commitment to the United Nations General Assembly convened in2009:China will reduce energy intensity by40%-45%in2020and will vigorously promote the use of renewable energy. The Outline of the People's Republic of China's12th Five-Year Plan of the National Economy and Social Development puts forward that non-fossil energy share of primary energy consumption will be increased to11.4%, the unit GDP energy consumption will be decreased by16%, carbon dioxide emissions by17%, and the total discharge of major pollutants will be reduced by8%-10%by2015.
Based on the potential and characteristics of domestic and international geothermal resource, this paper analyzed methods of geothermal development and utilization, used advanced technology and experiences abroad, theoretically analysed the economic evaluation index system and methods of heat energy development and utilization from the economic evaluation of typical regional projects, and finally provided case studies and reference for the construction of the National Geothermal Economic Evaluation System and Methods.
Seventy or eighty's of last century, under the leadership of the Ministry of Geology and mineral, China carried out the research work for geothermal resources assessment and development, completed the survey of more than20provinces and cities, and selected key areas of geothermal resources exploration. But the degree of exploitation and utilization of geothermal resources in China is generally low, lack of economic evaluation of exploitation and utilization of geothermal resources system. This paper in a large number of existing data collection based on the research results, the economic evaluation of the development and utilization of geothermal resources in our country city geothermal, purpose is to grasp the development and utilization of geothermal resources distribution situation of our country, analyze the economic benefit, provide reference for future geothermal resources exploration and development, to provide decision-making basis for the development of geothermal energy structure adjustment energy.
This paper collected geothermal resource literature materials and relevant academic materials in the university library and network libraries, sorted out the materials, looked for gaps and vulnerabilities in the geothermal field, and grasped the latest industry developments. At the same time, through discussion and communication with experts in the field, field research to explore problems and bottlenecks faced by the geothermal industry, this paper conducted comparative study with the advanced experience of foreign geothermal development and explored the effects of economic evaluation to the geothermal industry. This paper selected the geothermal projects in Xianyang and XiongXian for typical cases. Based on basic principles of economic evaluation, this paper used qualitative and quanitative analysis, microscopic and macroscopic analysis research methods, and closely combined present situation of the geothermal resources and geothermal industry, the government guidance and sustainable development, established corresponding economic evaluation methods, and conducted economic evaluation of geothermal heating projects.
Based on the theoretical analysis as the foundation and the empirical analysis for verification, the research is divided into9parts. The main contents are as follows:
Chapter1Introduction.This chapter introduces the research background and significance, theoretical basis, research ideas and the innovation of this paper. In the current development of renewable energy, alternative to traditional fossil energy is to achieve energy-saving emission reduction, alleviate the pressure of energy sources, an important way to protect the ecological environment. In order to achieve China's energy-saving emission reduction targets, change the energy structure, and actively promote the exploration and development of geothermal industry. However, our country's geothermal development needs intensive goal to scale. In the process of development and utilization of geothermal resources, often only pay attention to natural resources and technology level, for the economic evaluation can play in the geothermal project function, lack of due attention. In this paper, using the methods of financial evaluation, economic benefit analysis of geothermal development, and for the case of project analysis.
Chapter2The estimation of Chinese geothermal resources distribution and resources reserves. This chapter introduces the types, the distribution pattern and characteristics of geothermal resource in China and provides national estimates data of the geothermal resource.
This chapter is divided in the types of resources and reserves evaluation, the resources corresponding evaluation on geothermal resources, provides the first material basis for the development and utilization of geothermal resources.
Chapter3Analysis of China's current situation and prospect of development and utilization of geothermal resources. This chapter includes the present situation of our country, geothermal resources market geothermal industrialization, geothermal heating, geothermal power status, current situation of the direct use of geothermal energy status and existing problems and future trend analysis. Since the eighty's of last century, China has gradually from the planned economy began to transition to a market economy, some enterprises began to set foot in the geothermal development, especially in the area of geothermal resources better, investment to promote the industrialization development of geothermal energy. Geothermal industry begun to take shape in the early twenty-first Century, in recent years has been rapid development. At present our country geothermal heating has a total area of about20000000m2. The exploitation of geothermal resources of Tianjin city in2004has reached24680000m3, geothermal heating area of9400000m2, accounted for50%of the total area of geothermal heating; Beijing since1975the use of geothermal heating, geothermal water temperature up to53.8℃, water volume90m3/h; using40m Liaoning geothermal exploitation of geothermal water indoor heating, geothermal average temperature of78℃, water heating supply30t/h,1048m2building, when the winter outdoor temperature reached minus-20degrees, the indoor temperature can be maintained at20-25℃.In our country is rich in geothermal resources of the area, using geothermal heating has been achieved good results. For example in Liaoning wave, using geothermal heating annual cost savings of about150000yuan.
At present, our country is to develop and utilize the heat energy from policy, technology, market and capital restriction and influence of various conditions. The development process of a series of problems still exist. But through the joint efforts of governments and enterprises and scientific research units, will usher in a bright future for the development of geothermal energy.
Chapter4The analysis of foreign policy and experience of development and utilization of geothermal resources. This chapter introduces the main geothermal industry policies in foreign countries, summarizes the characteristics of foreign geothermal industry policy, introduced the status of development and utilization of geothermal industry abroad, and analyzes the significance of the geothermal industry policy in China. The country is rich in geothermal resources of foreign utilization of geothermal resources of long history in China, the development and utilization of advanced and systematic way, and some have formed the system utilization system. Iceland, Japan and other countries of the geothermal energy utilization has occupied a larger proportion in national energy structure. In addition, the development and utilization of geothermal energy policies in foreign countries are more perfect and sound.
Human use of geothermal engaged in commercial development and utilization of more than100years. By the end of1997,46countries around the world have started to use geothermal resources, global geothermal power was44TWh/a, the direct use of geothermal is38TWh/a. It is expected that by2020, global geothermal power generation capacity will reach318TWh, the direct use of will reach140TWh. In particular the use of geothermal heat pump technology for geothermal energy, provides a broader space for development and utilization, the use of heat pump technology, can be7-12℃groundwater as a heat source to use, largely to resolve the distribution of geothermal resources in congenital restricting limitations.
At present, in the energy structure, with the exception of a few countries, geothermal energy status can be said to be very little, even with solar energy, wind energy, tidal energy and other new energy, also is in the initial stage of development. But if the solar energy, wind energy, tidal energy and geothermal energy are compared, it would be found, geothermal is a very effective source of development and utilization.
Chapter5Analysis of technical and economic evaluation of geothermal resources of hydrothermal type. Our application for hydrothermal type geothermal resources, focus on heating and hot spring bath-in the project. In this chapter, firstly analyzes the evaluation of geothermal economy in China based on the theory, introduces the financial evaluation and geothermal project economic evaluation method. The method of construction of geothermal energy resources in economic evaluation, index system and parameter system. Taking Xiong xian, Xianyang as examples, to analysis the economic benefits of using geothermal heating. Taking Dongying as an example, to analysis the mode of heating and other evaluation and utilization of geothermal economic.
Chapter6Analysis of technical and economic evaluation and case of shallow geothermal energy. Development and utilization of shallow geothermal energy, generally divided into ground source heat pump, water source heat pump, air source heat pump and ground source heat pump technology. At present our application of the ground-source heat pump technology is relatively common, economic evaluation and analysis of this chapter choose ground-source heat pump geothermal resources development, established the economic evaluation method of index system, and the project involves the national economic evaluation analysis. Taking Shenyang and Wuhan project as examples, analysis of the specific project of geothermal heating in the use of ground source heat pump, economic benefits.
Chapter7Analysis of economic evaluation and case of geothermal resources in other applications. In China, the utilization of geothermal resources is very extensive, including power generation, hot spring bath, agricultural and industrial use, in this chapter, analysis and utilization of geothermal resources in the economic benefits, in order to adapt to the different modes of development and utilization, the economic evaluation of the method of index, the corresponding adjustment. Select Yangzhou as the case to the comprehensive benefit evaluation.
Chapter8The suggestions about China's geothermal's future. At present the development of geothermal industry of our country exists generally low level of geothermal resources exploration; resource family property is unclear; to use hot water (gas) instead of focusing on the utilization of heat energy; the lack of development and utilization planning unified; deep development of high risk, mining depth, utilization degree is low; lack of a unified national regulations, management system is not perfect, there are many management problems. The effects of rapid development of geothermal development and utilization to a certain extent, the need to provide policy support by the government, perfect the technology to provide security, relying on the market as the leading, access to scientific team support to solve the problems at present.
Capter9Conclusion. Through the study of this article:geothermal energy utilization project economic evaluation is based on the regional division and calculation of the amount of resources. According to the partition and calculation results, in combination with the local actual situation, combined with the engineering economics design project suitable for geothermal energy development and utilization. To calculate the economic benefits of geothermal energy projects, introduction to national policy, academic research, especially to provide reference for enterprise investment.
The innovation of this paper is mainly manifested in the following aspects:
1, the shallow geothermal, narrow hydrothermal type ground temperature, hot dry rock resources reserves potential classification estimation, the hydrothermal type geothermal resources are in accordance with the sedimentary basin and uplift of mountains were estimated. Outline of the proposed our country general reserves total potential energy.
2, the paper puts forward clearly, evaluation of geothermal commonly used standard coal conversion index and carbon dioxide emission reduction targets, suitable for geothermal resources economic evaluation, is the development and utilization of geothermal mainly based on macro decision. In the decision of national economic evaluation of micro economic evaluation of geothermal development projects and projects, can be used as a reference index. Geothermal development project micro economic evaluation for investment returns evaluation index, profit is the main basis of the investment decision of geothermal development projects. To clarify the geothermal technology evaluation, economic evaluation, economic evaluation and macro, micro economic evaluation mixed used repeatedly, the technical and economic evaluation of geothermal to more scientific, more accurate, and an important step. Innovative, has important application value.
3, according to the hot geothermal water and shallow geothermal energy classification, respectively, selected representative case, system of project economic evaluation on development and utilization of the system was established and applied to different types of geothermal resources. To some extent, improve the geothermal development and utilization project economic evaluation theory and methods, to provide reference for government decision-making, policy research and market investment.
引文
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