摘要
随着我国市场经济体制的逐步建立和完善,房地产业对调整经济结构、促进经济增长发挥了重要作用,而房地产金融成长对房地产业的发展起着重要的推动作用。在当前我国宏观经济持续快速发展,金融深化进程不断推进的背景下,房地产金融在国家金融业中的地位作用也日益突出。加快我国房地产金融在市场、制度、机构等方面的建设成为现阶段深化发展的现实需要。
目前,国内外关于房地产金融的研究多是从实务角度出发,针对房地产金融工具、机构、制度等方面所进行的独立的、分块式的研究,缺少系统性和整体性,许多理论和实践问题无法得到有效解决,同时,研究的方法和手段也需要进一步丰富和完善。因此,本文试图将宏观金融领域的金融成长思想与产业金融的运行规律结合,搭建一个较为系统的房地产金融成长理论框架和平台,从而为房地产金融的进一步研究提供理论支持。在此基础之上,综合运用多种理论和方法,围绕我国房地产金融运行的实际情况展开研究。因此,本论文的研究具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。
本文提出了房地产金融成长理论的分析框架。对房地产金融成长的概念作出了界定,研究了房地产金融成长的形式、阶段、类型及房地产金融成长的外部规制和目标;阐释了房地产金融成长机制的内涵、要素;同时,分析了房地产金融成长的制度模式、市场模式和企业模式。
在上述理论分析基础之上,本文对我国的房地产金融市场成长、房地产金融成长的制度影响和房地产金融主体成长进行了研究,最后对我国总体的房地产金融成长度作出评价。
在房地产金融市场成长研究中,重点讨论了我国房地产金融市场的规模增长和结构演进过程。利用动态计量经济学原理构建了决定我国房地产金融市场融资规模增长的中期均衡方程和短期波动方程,得到了房地产金融规模、房地产销售额和GDP三者之间的数量影响关系;通过金融结构主导选择理论分析,确立了以银行为主导模式的我国房地产金融市场的二元主导金融结构;从供需关系视角构建了房地产金融市场融资结构演进的灰靶决策模型,得出我国房地产金融市场融资结构演进模式的成因取决于融资成本、融资规模和融资效率;利用VAR原理构建了一个协整递归估计模型,研究了我国房地产经济增长对于房地产金融市场结构演进的影响,从个别时点看,房地产金融结构发展存在不能适应经济稳步增长的某些问题,从整体情况看,我国房地产金融结构与房地产经济发展在相应的调整后还是存在长期稳定的均衡关系。
以房地产金融成长的制度模式、市场模式和机构模式为理论依据,探讨了我国房地产金融成长的制度供给及效应、制度障碍及效应。重点分析了金融组织制度、金融市场制度、金融调控制度和金融监管制度的供给和障碍,住房公积金制度和房地产信贷制度等房地产金融制度对房地产金融成长的影响,同时还分析了房地产金融的制度障碍所造成的投资、融资和金融风险方面的影响。
以房地产金融成长的制度模式为理论依据,确立了我国房地产金融机构的产权模式选择为以商业银行为主体,多种非银行金融机构为补充的形式;从外生成长和内生成长两方面探讨了我国房地产金融主体的成长过程:通过构建博弈模型,获得了开发商和个人消费者在乐观预期条件下与房地产金融机构的共生作用关系,通过回归分析获得了以房价收入比为衡量指标的购房者支付能力增长影响的决定关系;从内生成长的视角分析了激励和约束条件下的房地产金融机构经理行为选择机理、房地产金融机构经营目标和选择风险及收益的机理。
提出了房地产金融成长度的概念,建立了相应的评价指标体系,并阐述了该评价指标体系的功能和建立原则;运用灰色系统优势分析原理建立了房地产金融成长度评价模型,并对我国1999年~2006年的房地产金融成长度进行了实证研究,结合房地产金融成长度的评价值,对我国房地产金融成长的薄弱环节提出了改善的政策建议。
Real estate industry has played an important role to adjust economic structure and promote economic growth with the stepwise building and perfection of Chinese market economic system. Real estate financial maturity provides an engine for real estate industrial development. Currently Chinese macroeconomy has been in a sustainable and fast development with a continued financial deepening process. Under this background real estate financial industry has been taking more importance in the field of national finance. So it is an urgent need to speed up the establishment of regulations, institutions, innovations and mechanism for Chinese real estate financial industry.
At present, research of real estate finance mainly focus on the actual conditions of real estate financial instruments, institutions, systems, etc. These researches are separate and sectional. On one hand real estate financial research needs enriching its research methodologies, on the other hand it needs forming a whole theoretical system. There are still many theoretical and actual problems to be solved. So, this dissertation tries to combine the idea of financial maturity with industrial financial running rules and builds a whole platform and structure for real estate finance, so that theoretical support can be given for further real estate financial research. On base of this, research of Chinese real estate financial running condition can be carried out by using many theories and methodologies. This paper has significant theoretical value and actual meaning.
This dissertation discusses about the meanings and characters of some core concepts of real estate financial maturity. The concept of real estate financial maturity is put up forwards. The forms, stages, types, outer regulations and its aims of real estate financial maturity are analyzed. The intensions, aims, factors of real estate financial matured mechanism and six kinds of matured mechanisms are researched together. The systematic modes, market modes and institution modes of real estate financial maturity are also analyzed.
Based on above theoretical analysis, this dissertation discusses Chinese real estate financial market maturity, influence of Chinese real estate financial systems and Chinese real estate financial mainbodies’maturity. At last, a whole evaluation of Chinese real estate financial maturity is given.
In the discussion of Chinese real estate financial market maturity, we gain intermediate term equilibrium equation and short term fluctuation equation for Chinese real estate financial market scale growth by using econometrics theory. The interactional quantitative relationship among Chinese real estate financial market scale, real estate sales and GDP is gotten. Based on financial structure predominance choice theory it is confirmed that bank predominance structure is the predominance structure of Chinese real estate financial market dualistic structure. By grey target decision making model we analyze the evolution cause of Chinese real estate financial market financing structure which is decided by supply and demand factors. The reason lies in financing scale, financing cost and financing efficiency. Through recursive estimation of VAR model, the relevance of Chinese real estate financial structure and real estate economic growth is analyzed and the influencing mechanism under comprehensive policies is gotten. Seen frome singal time point, there exist some problems that real estate financial structure can’t adapt to the growth of real estate economy, but as a whole, there is a long and stable equilibrium relation between real estate financial structure and real estate economic growth.
According to system modes, market modes and institution modes of real estate financial maturity, the system supply and its effect of real estate financial maturity are analyzed. The systems of housing accumulation fund, real estate credit loan, real estate financial management and real estate financial innovation have active and extensive influence. The system obstacles and its effect of real estate financial maturity are also analyzed. The system obstacles mainly have three bad influences in real estate investment, real estate financing and real estate financial risk.
According to system modes of real estate financial maturity, it is confirmed that the property right mode of Chinese real estate financial institutions should make commercial banks be main bodies, non-banking financial institutions be complementarities. The maturity of Chinese real estate financial mainbodies is discussed in the ways of exogenous maturity and endogenous maturity. Seen from exogenous maturity, game models of Chinese real estate financial institutions, developers and housing buyers are built. Through regression analysis the influencing relationship of affordable capability for housing buyers expressed by ratio of housing price and income is gotten. Seen from endogenous maturity performance choice mechanism of real estate financial institution manager is analyzed under stirs and restrictions, together with choice mechanism of real estate financial institution management aims and balance of risk and revenue.
The concept of real estate financial matured degree is defined and its evaluation index system is built at the same time. The function and building rules of this evaluation index system are also given. By predominance analysis theory of grey system, the matured degree of Chinese real estate finance is evaluated using data of 1999~2006. Accoding to evaluation value, policy advices are given to ameliorate the weak taches of Chinese real estate financial maturiety.
引文
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