摘要
机电产品国际贸易是集货物贸易、技术贸易和服务贸易于一身,是国际贸易及国际高新技术产品贸易的主导产业,也是衡量一个国家参与经济全球化分工能力和对外贸易竞争力的重要标志。我国机电产品进出口呈现持续稳定增长的良好局面,是推动对外贸易和国民经济发展的重要力量,呈现出机电产品出口规模不断扩大,机电产品国际竞争力不断增强,出口市场进一步向多元化方向发展等特点和优势。与此同时,我国机电产品出口也存在如下问题:“加工贸易+外商投资”的出口模式导致效益低,大多数出口采用了OEM,ODM的方式,出于全球产业链的最低端;多数机电产品出口增量不增收、出口面临结构不合理与低质、低价和削价竞销;出口产品缺乏自主品牌和自主知识产权的有效支撑。上述我国机电产品出口遇到的问题与挑战归根结底是我国机电出口企业缺乏自主品牌和自有知识产权。要摆脱这种被动的局面,就要加大自主创新,实施品牌战略,转变贸易增长方式。
国际市场营销策略对于品牌创立和传播,对于转变贸易增长方式,提升我国机电设备出口企业的国际竞争力和话语权,对于提升企业的长期利益有着不可替代的作用。
本文基于创立自主品牌和长远利益为目标,采用系统科学的工具,对我国机电设备的国际市场营销管理进行系统分析;首先是利用STP分析步骤,采用定性与定量相结合的办法,通过问卷和实证分析,找出目标市场及其市场定位;其次,对于在该目标市场采用什么样的营销策略组合,我们采用了系统动力学的分析工具,找出渠道、产品、服务、价格、广告等营销策略分别对市场利润的长远和系统影响;分别找出各种策略的影响强度及它们之间的比较,确定在资源有限的情况下,应该把资源如何在各策略之间分配;从而确定基于创立自主品牌以及长远利益为目标的,实现我国机电设备国际市场营销策略组合。同时,笔者长期在泰豪公司从事发电机组营销工作,遇到许多待研究的问题。本文结合工作实际,从事博士论文研究,并用其结果指导工作实际。
本文主要结论有:
国际市场发电机组用户在购买产品时,受质量与性能因素的影响最大;其次是品牌与供应商的信誉;第三是产品的价格;第四是售后服务的水平;第五是销售与设计;第六是交货及时性。因此,在进行国际市场营销时,我们应该更加重视品牌建设、重视产品的质量和性能,而不是一味的打价格战。
机电设备国际目标市场选择的多指标评价方法及其实证分析:采用了多指标评价方法,并采用问卷调查的方法对发电机组的中东市场进行了实证分析,得出的结论是在中东市场中阿联酋与土耳其是最好的市场,伊拉克和阿富汗是最差的市场。
文章建立了机电设备国际市场营销的系统动力学模型:通过对研发投入率,广告投入率,服务投入率,渠道投入率,制造投入率等五个变量仿真的内部纵向对比和外部横向对比分析,定量论证了各营销策略的作用及其弹性;
从总体趋势上来看,五种投入对利润的影响是正方向的影响(在仿真期内)。但是,五种投入对利润的影响力度是不断变化的,大致可以分成三个阶段。第一阶段,也就是在初期,五种投入的影响力度是比较小的,甚至可能会导致由五种投入产生的效益小于其生成的成本,而使得利润值为负。随着时间的推移,五种投入的功效不断显现且影响力度越来越强,这一阶段本文称之为第二阶段。第三阶段的特征是:当五种投入达到一定程度时,此时五种投入产生边际效用越来越小,甚至可能是负值,而导致利润的减小。
本文的主要创新之处是:
(1)建立了我国机电设备国际市场营销市场细分和目标市场选择及定位分析模型,并以发电机组的中东市场为例进行了实证分析。
建立了我国机电设备国际市场营销市场细分和目标市场选择及定位分析模型,并结合笔者长期在泰豪公司从事发电机组国际市场营销的实际,以发电机组的中东市场为例进行了实证分析。包括:我国机电设备国际市场细分方法,细分变量的分类与选取;细分的灰色关联模型定量分析;机电设备国际目标市场选择的多指标评价方法;我国机电设备国际目标市场的定位分析;对发电机组国际营销从市场细分,目标市场选择及市场定位三方面进行实证分析。上述问题是来源于实际,同时其解决方法又是实践与理论相结合的结果。
(2)新组建并使用了系统动力学反馈基模流图分析法。此方法将定性反馈基模分析法和定量流图分析法相结合,通过将定性反馈基模对策分析扩展至定量反馈基模子流图对策分析,并将定量反馈基模子流图生成总体系统流图后再进行对策分析,并提出了具体的建模分析步骤。
1通过系统分析,确定子系统S1,S2,…,Sn,确定各子系统的相交变量和独立变量,建立整个系统的正、负反馈环集合;2分别建立子各系统Si(t)的定性反馈基模,并分别提出管理对策;3通过建立各子系统子流位流率系,建立各子系统定量仿真方程式,建立各子系统定量反馈基模子流图Gi(t),定量仿真各管理对策实施效果。4由子反馈基模子流图G1(t),G2(t),…,,,,Gn(t)作嵌运算,得整个系统流图G(t),在各子系统定量仿真方程式基础上建立整个系统定量仿真方程式,并通过整体定量仿真管理对策实施效果。本文使用此方法收到了很好效果,此反馈基模流图分析法对各子系统S1,S2,…,Sn并行特性强,相交变量多类型的系统建模特别适应。
(3)基于自主品牌的创建,建立我国机电设备国际市场营销策略系统研发、制造、广告、渠道、服务五个子系统的增长上限反馈基模及管理对策、五个系统的子流图及流图仿真模型,进行管理对策定量反馈仿真分析,而且进行有效应用研究。
建立了研发、制造、广告、渠道、服务五个子系统的增长上限反馈基模,并分别提出了消除各子系统增长上限的管理对策。还建立了五个子系统的反馈基模的子流图,分别对各管理对策实施进行了定量仿真分析,在此基础上,又建立了机电设备国际市场营销的系统动力学流图仿真模型,并进行反馈环分析,通过对研发投入率,广告投入率,服务投入率,渠道投入率,制造投入率等五个变量仿真的内部纵向对比和外部横向对比分析,定量论证了各营销策略作用及其弹性;为制定基于建立自主品牌,获取长远利益为目标的营销策略组合提供了科学依据。而且将上述管理对策的定性定量研究结果指导了泰豪科技股份有限公司国际市场中东区域的业务开拓,取得了较好的应用效果。
International trade of the mechanical and electrical product includes cargo trade,technological trade and service trade,meanwhile,it is the leading industry in the international trade and high-tec product trade,otherwise,it is the important symbol to the country to participate the economic globalization and foreign trade competition.The import and export of the mechanical and electrical product in our country present the good complexion of the sustaining stable increase and is the significant strength to promote the foreign trade and the development of the national economy,meanwhile,it presents the ceaseless expansion scope of the mechanical and electrical product export and the sustaining improved international competition capability of the mechanical and electrical product,besides,it presents the characteristic and advantage to the multifold aspect development in the export market.At the same time,it also has the following questions in our country's mechanical and electrical product export:1.export mode" machining trade+ foreign investment" results in low benefit and most export adopt the mode of OEM and ODM on the bottom of the global industrial chain.2.most mechanical and electrical product export have increment,but no income increase and export is face with the illogical structure,low quality,low price and lower the price.3.export is short of the self brand and the efficient support to the self intellectual property.In the final analysis,the question and challenge of our country's mechanical and electrical product export is short of the self brand and the self intellectual property.We must increase the self innovation and implement the brand strategy and change the trade increase manner.
International marketing strategy has the irreplaceable function to the brand foundation and the transmission,the conversion of the trade increase manner, the advance of the international competition capability and the discourse rights of our country's mechanical and electrical equipment export enterprise and the advance of the enterprise's long-term advantage.
The text is based on the self brand foundation and the long-term advantage for its aim and adopts the systemic scientific instrument and carry through the systems analysis.Firstly,we utilize the STP analyzing step and adopt the measure with combining the qualitative and ration meanwhile,we will find out the objective market and the market orientation via the questionnaire and the system analysis.Secondly,we adopt the systemic kinetic diagnostic tool to adopt what kind of marketing strategy combination in the objective market and have the long-term market profit and the systemic influence via to find out the marketing strategy to channel,product,service, price,advertisement and so on.We will partly find out the sundry politic influential intension and the relativity among them,meanwhile,we will confirm how to distribute the resource among the sundry strategy in the limited resource situation. Accordingly,we will oonfirm the international marketing combination of our country's mechanical and electrical equipment for the aim to found self brand and the long-term profit.
The main conclusion of the text:
When the user of the international market generator set purchases the product, quality and ingredient is the most influence to it.Secondly,the reputation of the brand and the supplier,thirdly,the product price,fourthly,the standard of the sales service, fifthly,the distribution and design,delivery in time.Therefore,we should much more regard the brand construction,the quality and capability of the product,but no to use the price war blindly.
Multi-index evaluation way and the demonstration in the international objective market of the mechanical and electrical equipment:we adopt the multi-index evaluation way and adopt the inquisitional way of the questionnaire to carry through the demonstration analysis to the mid-east market of the generator set.The conclusion is that the best market is The United Arab Emirates and Turkey in the mid-east market, however,Iraq and Afghanistan is the worst market.
The dissertation constitutes the marketing systemic kinetics model of the mechanical and electrical equipment in the international market.The rotation demonstrates the function and flexibility of the sundry marketing strategy via to analyze the interior portrait contrast and the exterior landscape orientation contrast of the five kinds of valuable simulations(the research and development devotion rate, advertisement devotion rate,service devotion rate,channel devotion rate and manufacture devotion rate).
From the total trend,the five kind of devotion is the positive directional influence to the profit influence(within the simulation period).However,the five kinds of devotions have the sustaining change to the profit force and approximately divide into the three phases.In the first phase(just in the early period),the force of the five kind of devotion is lesser and it will let the profit value to be negative because the benefit of the five kind of devotion force is less than the cost.Along with the temporal process,the efficiency of the five kinds of devotion shows sustaining and the force becomes stronger.This phase is the second phase in the text.The characteristic of the third phase:the five kind of devotion brings the boundary use is constantly smaller when the five kind of devotion on the certain extent and result in the profit to minish and possibly in negative value.
The main innovation of the text:
(1)The main innovation is to build the international marketing objective market selection model of our country's mechanical and electrical equipment and will carry through the demonstration analysis to the generator set in mid east market.It includes the international market subsection way,the class and selection of the subsection variable,the quantitative analysis of the subsectional gray association model,the multi index evaluation way and the demonstration of the international objective market of the mechanical and electrical equipment,the international objective marketing orientation analysis of our country's mechanical and electrical equipment.
(2) Establish the new method which is called system dynamic analysis feedback model.There are too jobs to do for setting up the complex system of daynamic.The dissertation makes use of theory of revert and integer principle,and combine the feedback basic model anlyasis with flow chart.Firstly,through the system analysis,set up the sub system S1,S2,.....Sn,fixed the sharing available data and independ data.Secondly,Set up the sub system basic feedback model and submit the policy.Thirdly,make the simulation to the model to check the effect of the policy.Forthly,make the calculation and got the whole system flow chart.The dissertation make use for the method because it is good for too types variable model.
(3)The main innovation is to build the international marketing systemic dynamics development imitation model of the mechanical and electrical equipment. The rotation demonstrates the function and flexibility of the sundry marketing strategy via to analyze the interior portrait contrast and the exterior landscape orientation contrast of the five kind of valuable simulations(the research and development devotion rate,advertisement devotion rate,service devotion rate, channel devotion rate and manufacture devotion rate).It constitutes to establish the self brand and gets the long-term benefit for the marketing strategy combination of the aim to provide the scientifical evidence.
引文
[1]Ambler,Tim and S.Puntoni.Measuring Marketing Performance[R].London Business School,Working Paper:1-39,2001.
[2]Ambler,Tim.Marketing and the Bottom Line[J].Financial Times,Prentice Hall,2000.
[3]Emmanuel D.Adamides and Marinie Voutsina.The double-helix model of manufacturing and marketing strategies[J].International Journal of Production Economies,Volume 104,Issue 1,November 2006,Pages 3-18
[4]Henning Steinfeld,Pierre Gerber,Tom Wassenaar,et al.Livestock's long shadow—environm-ental issues and options,FAO,2006:Chapter 7,page 268
[5]Ambler,Tim and D.Riley.Marketing Metrics:a Review of Performance Measures in Use in the U.K.and Spain[R].London Business School,draft Paper:1-30,London,2000.
[6]Angerhofer B.Angelides M.System dynamics modeling in supply chain management:reach review[A].Joines J,et al.Proceedings of the 2000 Winter Simulation Couference[C].2000.
[7]A.S.Boote.(1984).Market Segmentation by Personal Values and S alient Product Att ributes[A].Consumer Behavior for Marketing Managers[C].Allyn and Bacon,Inc.,Newton Massachusetts,1984.
[8]Hayo M.G.van der Weft,John Tzilivakis.et al.Environmental impacts of farm scenarios according to five assessment methods.Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment 118(2007) 327-338
[9]Baik Y.Control in the extended enterprise[D].University of Waterloo,1997.
[10]Barberis N,shafeide A,Vishny R.A model of investor sentiment[J].Journal of Financial Economics,1997,49:3o7-343.
[11]Barry Richmond.Systems Thinking—Let's Just on With it.Proceeding of the 1994International System Dynamics Conference.Sterling.Scotland
[12]Beamon B.Supply chain design and analysis:models and methods[J].International Journal of Produc.tion Econom ics,1998,55:281-294.
[13]Bhambri A.Organization Structure and corporate social performance:a field study in two contrasting industries[J].Academy of Management Journal,1988,31(3):642-662.
[14]Black Fischer.Noise[J].Journal of Finance,1986,41:529-543.
[15]Bonoma,ThomasV.and Clark Brace H..Marketing Performance Assessment[M.Harvard Business School Press,1988.
[16]Brown S,Warner J.Using daily reblnIs-a case of event study[J].Journal of Financial Economics,1985,8:4-31.
[17]Brown J,Duguid P.The social life of information[M].Boston,Massachusetts:Harvard Business School Press,2000.
[18]Burns T,Stalker G.The management of innovation[M].London:Tavistock,1961.
[19]Carmine Bianchi.Introduce SD Modeling into Planning and Control System to Manage SMES'Growth:a Learning-oriented Perspective[J].System Dynamics Review.2002.18(3).315-338
[20]Clark Bruce H.Marketing Performance Measures:History and Interrelationship s[J].Journal of Marketing Management,Vol.15:711-732,1999.
[21]Davidson J.H.Transforming the Value of Company Reports through Marketing Measurement[R].Journal of Marketing Management,Vol.15:757-777,1999.
[22] Edward G Anderson. Managing the impact of high market growth and learning on knowledge worker productivity and service quality [J]. European Journal of Operational Research, Volume 134, Issue 3,1 November 2001, Pages 508 - 524
[23] Frank H. Maier. New product diffusion models in innovation management - a system dynamics perspective. System Dynamics Review, 1999.14(4): 285 - 308
[24] Forrester, J. W. Industrial Dynamics [J]. Portland (OR): Productivity Press, 1961,P37 - P66
[25] Forrester.J. W. Industrial Dynamics [M].Cambridge. Mass The MIT Press.1961
[26] Forrester.J. W. Principles of Systems [M].Cambridge. Mass: The MIT Press.1968
[27] Forrester.J.W. Urban Dynamics [M].Cambridge. Mass: The MIT Press.1969
[28] Forrester.J.W. Word Dynamics [M].US, Cambridge. Mass-Allen PressInc,1971
[29] Forrester Jay W. Collected Papers of Jay W. Forrester [J],Cambridge MA: Productivity Press,1975:21-34
[30] Forrester.J.W. Information Sources for Modeling the National Fconomy[J].Journal of the America Statistical Association.l980.75(371):555-574
[31] Forrester.J.W. the System Dynamics M\National Models: Objectives, Philosophy, and Status. Proceedings of 1984 International System Dynamics Conference
[32] Forrester J W. System Dynamics and the lessons of 35 years [M]. A chapter for The systemic Basis of Policy Making in the 1990s, Kenyon B. De Greene, 1991.4.29
[33] James M Lyneis. System dynamics for market forecasting and structural analysis. System Dynamics Review, Vol.16(1):3-25,14 Apr 2000
[34] Forrester.J.W. System Dynamics Systems Thinking and Soft OP [J].System Dynamics Review. 1994.10(4):245-256
[35] Googman.M.Kleiner.A. the Archetype family tree [A].In The fifth Discipline Fieldbook [C]. Senge.P & Ross.BJ & Smith.BJ. Nicholas Brearley Publishing:London
[36] Green and Yoram Wind (1975) . New Way to Measure Consumer Judgments[J ]. Harvard Business Review, 53 (1975) ,107-17.
[37] Grifin Dale,Anles T versky.The weighing of evidenceand the determinants of Overconfidece[J].Cognitive Psychology,1992,24:411-435.
[38] Gressman S J,Stiglitz J E.Information and competitive price systems[J].American Economic Review,1976,66: 253.
[39] Gunther Ossimitz. The Development of System Thinking Skills Using System Dynamics Modeling Tools[EB/OL].http://www.fmd.unios-nabru-eck./ebooks/gdzn/annualI996.htm
[40] Harmon K M J.Conflicts between owner and contractonproposed intervention process[J].Journal of Management in Engineering,2003(7):121-125.
[41] Hickson D J,Pugh D S,Diana C.Pheysey operations technology and organization structure:an empirical reappraisal[J].Administrative Science Quarterly,1969,14(3):378- 397.
[42] Holmes G,Hooper N.Core competence and education[J].Higher Education,2000,40:247-258.
[43] Jia Ren-an.Hu ling. Future Analysis of Energy and Ecology System Feedback Structure in Village[A].China Joints WTO: The Impact on Chinese Enterprise Management.2000
[44] Jorgen Randers. Form Limits to Growth to sustainable Development or SD(Sustainable Development) in a SD(System Dynamics) Perspective[J].System Dynamics Review.2000.16(3):213-224
[45] Jamieson W., 1994, "The challenge of cultural tourism" , Canadian Tourism Bulletin, 3(3):-4.
[46] J. Ashayeri and L. Lemmes. Economic value added of supply chain demand planning: A system dynamics simulation [J]. Robotics and Computer-Integrated Manufacturing, Volume 22, Issues 5-6, October-December 2006, Pages 550-556
[47] JIA R—A HU L.Further analysis of energey and ecology system feedback structure in villag[J].China Joins WTO:The Impact on China Enterprise Management.2000.A.J.Veal,1992,Research methods for leisure and tourism:practical guide,London,MBA Group.
[48] Jiang Wang.A model of competitive stock trading volume[J].Journal of Political Economy,1994,102:127-168.
[49] JneUing M F. On the aggregation of information in competitive markets[J].Journal of Economic Theory,1980,22:477-498.
[50] Joyce W, McGee V, Slocum J. Designing lateral organizations: an analysis of the benefits,costs,and enablers of nonhierarchical organization forms [J].Decision Science,1997,28(1):1- 25.
[51] John D. Sterman. System Dynamics Modeling:Tools for Learning in a Complex World[J]. California Management Review, Vol.43,No.4
[52] J.Porter L W. Organization structure and performance: a critical review [J1.Academy of Management Review,1980,5(1):49- 64.
[53] Kim.D.System Archetypes.Pegasus Connunications:Cambridge.Ma.l992
[54] Kirzner, I.M. 1973.Competition and Entrepreneurship. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
[55] Kirzner, I.M. 1979.Perception, Opportunity, and Profit: Studies in the theory of Entrepreneurship. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
[56] Kpkkinaki, Flora and Ambler. Marketing Performance Assessment: An Exploratory Investigation into Current Practice and the Role of Firm Orientation[R ]. Cambridge, MA: Marketing Science Institute, Report No. 99 -144,1999.
[57] LangerEllen J,Jane Roth.Heads1wintailsit's chance.The illusion of control as a function of the sequence out comes in a purelv chance task [J].Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,1975,32:951-955.
[58] Leon G. Schiffman, Leslie Lazar Kanuk (1995). Consumer Be2havior (5thed) [M]. 北京：清华大学出版社,Printice n HallInternational, Inc. 1995.
[59] Lynn R. Kahle (1999 ). lifestyle, Value , and Psychographics, perspectives from A round the world [A]. European Advances in Consumer Research Volume 4 [ C ] .Bernard Dubois, Tina M. Lowrey, L. J . shrum, ed., Provo, UT: Association for Consumer Research.
[60] Michael J. Barone, Paul W. Miniard and Jean B. Romeoc. The Influence of Positive Mood on Brand Extension Evaluation Journal of Consumer Research [J], VO l. 26 (March, 2000), P23-P32.
[61] Michael Shayne Gary. Exploring the impact of organizational growth via diversification [J]. Simulation Modeling Practice and Theory, Volume 10, Issues 5-7,15 December 2002, Pages 369-386
[62] Neal, William P. and John wurst (2001). Advances in Market Segmentation [J]. Marketing research spring 2001 Vol. 13, No. 1 PP. 15-18.
[63] Nitin R. Joglekar and David N. Ford. Product development resource allocation with foresight [J]. European Journal of Operational Research, Vol.160, Issue 1:72-87,1 Jan 2005
[64] Niraj Dawar and Madan M. Pillutla. Impact of Product Harm Crises on Brand Equity: The Moderating Role of Consumer Expectations [J]. Journal of Marketing Research XXXV 2 (2000 May): P215-P226.
[65] Peter R. Dickson (1982). Person - situation : Segmentation' s Missing Link[J ]. Journal of Marketing , 46 :4Fall, 1982 ,56- 64.
[66] Reisinger Y,1994, "Tourist-host contact as part of cultural tourism" ,World Leisure and Recreation,36(2):PP 24-28.
[67] Reary B.Getting lean for optimal return E J].ASCET:Achieve Supply Chain Excellence through Technology,2003.5:59-73.
[68] Russell I. Haley (1968). Benefit Segmentation : A Decision Oriented Research Tool [J]. Journal of Marketing 32 (July 1968): 30- 35.
[69] Senge.Peter.M. The Fifth Discipline. The Art and Practice of Learning Organization [M]. Doubleday.1990
[70] Shayne Gary and Erik Reimer Larsen. Improving firm performance in out-of-equilibrium deregulated markets using feedback simulation models [J]. Energy Policy, Volume 28, Issue 12,1 October 2000, Pages 845-855
[71] Smith, Wendell. (1956). Product Differentiation and Market Segmentation as Alternative Marketing Strategies [M]. Journal of Marketing, 21 (July 1956) 3- 8.
[72] Sterman J. Business dynamics: system thinking and modeling for a complex world [M]. McGraw-Hill / Irwin, 2000.
[73] Tony Lunn. (1986) Segmenting and constructing markets [A]. Robert M. Worcester and John Down ham eds. Consumer Market Research Handbook, Third Revised and Enlarged Edition [C]. Elsevier Science Publishers. B. V. 1986,387- 423.
[74] Verrecchia R E. Information acquisition in a noisy rational expectation economy[J].EPA}economic,1982,50:1415-1430.
[75] Wang.G F. Theory and Application of System Dynamics [M].Beijing. New Time Press.1987
[76] Wang Mengjun. Analysis on construction accidents and study for the solution[C] // Progress in safety Science and Technology. Beijing / New York: Chemical Industry Press,2002:739- 742.
[77] Wedal, Michel and Wagwr Kamakura ( 2000). Market Segmentation, Conceptual and Methodological Foundations, 2ndedM]. Boston: kluwer, U. SA, 2000.
[78] Wilkie , William L. and Joel B. Cohen (1977) . A Behavioral Science Look at Market Segmentation Research [A]. Moving A Head With Attitude Research[C]. Yoram Wind, ed. Chicago: American Marketing Association.
[79] William D.Weils. (1975). Psychographics: A Critical Review [J].Journal of Marketing Research 12 (May 1975):196- 213.
[80] Wolestenholme.EF. System Enquiry-A System Dynamics Approach.Wiley.Chichester.1990
[81] Wolestenholme.EF. Towards a Core Set of System Archetypes in System Dynamics. Proceedings of the 1993.International System Dynamics Conference. Cancun. Mexico
[82] Wolestenholme.EF&Coyle RG. The Development of System Dynamics as a Methodology for System Description and Qualitative Analysis [J].Journal of the Operational Research Society. 1983.34:569-581
[83] Wolestenholme.EF. Qualitative vs. Quantitative System Dynamics. the Evolving Balance[J]. Journal of the Operational Research Scoiety.1999.50:422-428
[84] Wolestenholme.EF. Towards the Definition and Use of s Core of Archetypal Structures in System Dynamics[J],System Dynamics Review,2003,19(1):7-26
[85] Yoram Wind (1978) Issues and Advances in Segmentation Research[J]. Journal of Marketing Research,August 1978,317-337.
[86]Zhang Y,Dihs D.Supply chain dynamics:impact of network structures and cooperative competitive games[R],http:/www.Vanderbilt.edugraduates/y～zhang/.,2003.
[1][美]埃弗雷特·M.罗杰斯:《创新的扩散》,北京:中央编译出版社,2002
[2]贝塔朗菲.一般系统论的历史和现状[M].北京:科学技术出版社,1981,P12-P15
[3]毕克新,朱娟,冯英浚.中小企业产品创新研究现状和发展趋势分析[J].2005
[4]查尔斯.w.小兰姆等.营销学精要.东北财经大学出版社.2000.
[5]蔡文.物元分析及其应用[M].北京:科学技术文献出版社,1994.
[6]蔡文,杨春燕,株伟初可拓工程方法[M]北京:科学出版社,1997.
[7]常永胜.20世纪市场营销理论的变革与进展[J].广东:南方经济,2000年第7期,P46-P48
[8]王其藩.系统动力学理论与方法的新进展[J].系统工程理论方法应用,1995,4(2):6-12
[9]王翠霞,贾仁安.中部农村规模养殖生态系统管理策略的系统动力学仿真分析[J]:系统工程理论与实践2007,27(12):158-169.
[10]陈小平.世纪之战:新经济条件下的市场特征分析.经济与管理研究.2001(1).
[11]陈建强.试论市场经济下的价格管理[J].中国物价,2004,(06)
[12]王其藩.高级系统动力学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1995.
[13]丹尼斯·舍伍德.系统思考[M].邱昭良,刘听译.北京:机械工业出版社,2004,P12-P18
[14]邓群钊.中部丘陵地区粮食安全和农民增收矛盾问题的系统分析———以兰坡矛盾问题为例[D].南昌大学,2006(博士论文).
[15]邓毅,马颖.薪酬的边际激励效用递减规律和薪酬制度创新[J].经济经纬,2003,3:40-42.
[16]都兴富.系统动力学原理及其应用.成都:西南财经大学出版社。1989
[17]杜纲.管理数学基础理论及应用[M].天津:天津人民出版社,2003.
[18]冯忠铨.经济预测与决策[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,19951
[19]菲利普·科特勒.营销管理[M].梅汝和译.上海:上海人民出版社,1997,P11-P18
[20]菲利普·科特勒.市场营销管理.郭国庆译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,1997,P17-P26
[21]付红桥.市场营销系统动态仿真研究[[D].湖北:华中农业大学硕士论文,2001
[22]甘碧群,李相银,黄沛.市场营销系统动态仿真研究[[J].湖北:武汉大学学报(自然科学版),1994年第6期,P22-P27
[23]郭国庆.市场营销管理—理论与模型fM].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1995,P23-P60
[24]郭国庆.市场营销学通论[M],北京:中国人民大学出版社,2000
[25]古利平,张宗益.中国制造业的产业发展和创新模式[J]科学学研究,2000
[26]哈罗得·孔茨,《管理学》,北京,经济科学出版社,1993年。
[27]韩永夫.现代市场学[M].北京.中国展望出版社.
[28]韩永夫.汉方.现代企业产品生命周期曲线预测模型及其应用[J].郑州大学学报.哲社版
[29]黄文罄.产品生命周期研究[J].商业研究,2003(17):13-15.
[30]黄志坚,贾仁安,黄顺发.流图的各阶反馈环数的向量运算法[J].南昌大学学报(理科版),2006(12):440-443,454.
[31]黄志坚,贾仁安,吴健辉.流图的反馈回路结构分析方法[J].数学的实践与认识,2006(2):284-290.
[32]黄志坚,吴健辉,贾仁安.基于动态能力理论的农村致富带头人能力形成方式分析.安徽 农业科学,2007(7):2121-2122.
[33]黄志坚,贾仁安,曾园根.农村创业能人创业的系统基模分析[J].湖北农业科学,2007(2):164-166.
[34]黄志坚,吴健辉,贾仁安.基于系统动力学理论的农业技术传播效果仿真分析[J].安徽农业科学,2007(12).
[35]胡玲,贾仁安.强简化流率基本入树模型与枝向量矩阵反馈回路分析法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,21(11):83-88.
[36]胡树华,《产品创新管理》,北京,科学出版社,2000年。
[37]胡玉奎,韩于羹,曹铮韵.系统动力学模型的进化[J].系统工程理论与实践,1997,10:132-136.
[38]胡玉奎.系统动力学[M].北京:北京航空学院出版社,1984.
[39]贾仁安,涂国平,邓群钊,贾晓菁,贾伟强.“公司+农户”规模经营系统的反馈基模生成集分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005(12):107-117.
[40]贾仁安,徐南孙,伍福明等.作流率基本入树嵌运算建立主导结构反馈模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,1999,19(7):69-76.
[41]贾仁安,胡玲,丁荣华,朱丽萌等.系统动力学简化流率基本入树模型及应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,21(10):137-144.
[42]贾仁安,丁荣华.系统动力学—反馈动态性复杂分析[M].北京:高等教育出版社.2002.
[43]贾仁安等.SD简化流率基本人树模型及其应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,10:137-144.
[44]贾伟强,贾仁安.“公司+农户”模式中违约问题的系统结构反馈分析[J].湖北农业科学,2005(4):11-15.
[45]贾伟强.基于反馈动态复杂性分析的“公司+农户”组织模式的合作机制研究[D].南昌大学,2006(博士论文).
[46]孟超.知识经济条件下企业跨国经营的营销渠道.经济与管理研究.2001(5).
[47][美]迈克尔.R.所罗门:《消费者行为》,北京:经济科学出版社,2003
[48]李国纲等编,《管理系统工程》,北京,中国人民大学出版社,1999年。
[49]李光集.经济全球化:中国商业面临的挑战及对策.经济评论.2000(5).
[50]李骏阳,秦莺.经济全球化过程中的中国商业.商业经济研究.2000(2).
[51]林三卓.销售通路的变革,销售与市场.2001.
[52]罗明凡,耿明英.中国企业对外投资的战略与改革选择.对外经贸实务.2001(2).
[53]路易斯·普特曼,《企业的经济性质》,上海,上海财经大学出版社2000年。
[54]龙志军.基于系统动力学的供应链库存控制机理研究[[D].武汉大学硕士论文,2005
[55]罗进.跨国公司在华战略.上海:复旦大学出版社,2001.
[56]苏懋康.系统动力学原理及应用[M].上海:上海交通大学出版社,1988.6.
[57]孙玉玺.现代预测学[M].浙江:浙江教育出版社,19981
[58]宋永高.国外营销学研究方法介绍[[J].浙江:嘉兴学院学报,2001年,第6期,P43-P46
[59]盛亚.技术创新扩散与新产品营销[M].北京:中国发展出版社,2002.5.
[60]陆军,蒋青云,应恩德.国际企业营销[M].上海:华东理工大学出版社,19991
[61]娄世娣 张占东:“新产品市场扩散的三大支点”,《销售与市场》1995年第四期.
[62]黎诣远.微观经济分析[M].北京:清华大学出版社,19871
[63]刘希宋,杨东奇.企业产品创新(开发)战略选择的系统研究[M]北京:经济科学出版社,2006
[64]汤正如,国际市场营销学[M].大连理工大学出版.1995。
[65]涂国平.基于系统动力学的农业生态能源研究[D].南昌大学,2004(博士论文).
[66]王建华,孙林岩.新产品行销过程的系统动力学模型研究[[J].甘肃:兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2001年12月第6期,P21-P25
[67]王其藩.系统动力学(修订版)[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1994,P30-P42
[68]王其藩.社会经济复杂系统系统动态分析[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,1994.
[69]王其藩.高级系统动力学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1995,P32-P40
[70]王其藩.复杂大系统综合动态分析与模型体系[J].管理科学学报,1999,2(2):15-20.
[71]汪碧瀛.高新技术企业技术创新模式选择模型[J]西安电子科技大学学报(社会科学版),2005
[72]王晋斌.技术路径与中国经济增长[J].中国人民大学学报,2003(2)。
[73]王端民,孙林岩.以制造资源的开放使用为基础的产品创新模式研究[J]中国机械工程,2001
[74]王美今.经济预测与决策[M].厦门:厦门大学出版社,19971
[75]吴锡军,袁永根.系统思考和决策实验室[M].江苏:江苏科学技术
[76]徐利治,王国俊,施光燕.现代数学手册:经济数学卷[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2001.
[77]许庆瑞等.研究与开发绩效评价在中国:实践与趋势[J].科研管理.Vol.23,No.1Jan,2002:46-53
[78]许国志,顾基发,车宏安.系统科学[M].北京.人民出版社,2004.
[79]徐南孙,贾仁安,伍福明,曾海泉等.王禾丘能源生态系统工程主导结构流率基本入树序列[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998,18(6):6-11.
[80]徐南孙,贾仁安.王禾丘能源生态系统工程研究[M].南昌:江西科学技术出版社,1998.
[81]向阳,于长锐.复杂性问题求解的定性与定量综合集成方法[J].管理科学学报,2001,4(2):25-31.
[82]杨洁,孙玉娟等.现在市场营销学[M].北京:中华工商联合出版社,2002,P12-P33
[83]于景元,刘毅.复杂性研究与系统科学[J].科学学研究,2002,(5):449-453.
[84]于长锐,徐福缘,向阳.复杂决策问题形式化方法研究[J].管理科学学报,2002,5(6):9-16.
[85]袁嘉新,何伦志.经济系统分析.北京:社会科学文献出版社.1997
[86]易余胤.盛昭瀚.新产品市场扩散的演化分析[J].预测.2003.2
[87]原毅军.跨国公司管理.大连:大连理工大学出版社,2002.
[88]杨德新.跨国经营与跨国公司.北京:中国统计出版社,2000.
[89]张米尔,武春友.基于产品平台的产品创新模式[J].研究与发展管理,2001
[90]张书亭,杨建军.支持快速产品创新的网络化制造模式[J]航空工程与维修,2005
[91]张国伍,贾顺平.交通运输系统动力学.成都:西南交通大学出版社。1993
[92]张思锋,张颖.对我国循环经济研究若干观点的述评[J].西安交通大学学报:社会科学版,2002(9).
[93]张炳发,李锡纯.系统动力学与宏观经济系统分析[J].系统工程,1996,14(1):24-26
[94]张力菠.基于系统动力学的管理决策建模研究[[D].江苏:大学硕士论文,2001
[95]张继良,艾小华.经营管理的量化与优化方法.北京:能源出版社,1988
[96]张祥.知识经济与国际经济贸易.中国对外经济贸易出版社.1999.
[97]曾园根,黄志坚.农村致富带头人能力形成的动态分析[J].农业经济,2007(2):24-25.
[98]邹至庄,《动态经济系统的分析与控制》,北京,友谊出版公司,1983年。