摘要
能源是人类生存、经济发展和社会进步的重要物质保障,而经济快速发展必然面临能源需求增长,甚至能源危机和环境恶化等问题,使得农村能源的开发建设受到人们广泛的关注。辽阳地区农村能源已有30多年的发展历程,具备一定的产业基础和发展优势,同时也存在着不少问题,包括法令与实施办法有待健全、投资和融资渠道有待拓宽、技术保障和服务体系有待完善、农村能源市场和产业链有待构建等。如果能在辽阳地区制定一个完备合理的能源发展规划,充分利用开发农村生物质能,实现农村能源产业化发展,将在很大程度上解决能源缺口不断扩大的难题,同时保护了当地的环境,实现了能源可持续发展。
本研究综合运用计量经济学、能源经济学、灰色系统、层次分析等多学科的理论和方法,尝试定性分析与定量预测相结合,对辽阳地区未来能源的供需结构进行科学预测,得出能源缺口；同时对农村地区的新能源,尤其是生物质能进行预测,得到未来农村能源可利用量,并通过制订适合本地发展的能源规划,充分开发利用农村能源填补能源缺口,缓解能源困境；最后从经济、技术、制度等方而提出合理的建议,对辽阳地区社会可持续发展有着重要的现实指导意义。
通过深入的研究,本研究主要内容如下
(1)应用协整检验与误差修正模型深入研究影响辽阳地区能源消费的因素结果表明能源消费量与地区经济生产总值、能源消费结构和消费密度、产业结构、人口和城镇化率之间存在长期均衡关系,除城镇化率外,其余指标对能源消费均呈正相关,其中地区生产总值影响权重较大,其次为产业结构,再次为人口总量误差修正模型则反映出能源消费的短期行为,拟合效果良好,当能源消费的短期波动偏离长期均衡时,以调整系数-1.131979将非均衡状态拉回到均衡状态。
(2)以GM(1,1)模型和三次指数平滑模型进行组合,建立权重组合模型,分别对辽阳地区未来10年能源供需量进行科学预测,结果表明组合模型的预测精度更高,可靠性更强；到2022年辽阳地区能源消费量、生产量和能源缺口将分别达到2213.05、1646.00和567.05万吨标准煤,且未来10年内,能源消费量的增幅大于生产产量的增幅,能源缺口逐年扩大,能源自给率逐步降低。
(3)分别建立主要生物质产量和畜禽养殖量组合预测模型并对进行预测,依据草谷比系数、产柴率及排泄系数、生物质可利用系数、折合成标准能源系数等分别预测出各类生物质资源的总潜力,结果表明：2022年各类生物质可折合199.46儿吨标准煤,生能质能填补率35.18%,其中农业剩余物、林业剩余物、畜禽粪便分别可折31.84、27.24、140.38万吨标准煤,且未来10年内,农村各类生物质资源逐年增大,生物质能填补率为35%-60%,有效缓解能源供应危机
(4)调查辽阳地区农村能源开发利用状况、发展优势和存在差距，应用AHP对辽阳地区农村能源开发方案进行决策,应重点开发农村户用沼气建设和大中型养殖场沼气工程、太阳能热水器和太阳房、生物质固化成型技术,有选择地开发秸秆清洁集中供气工程,并规划出形象的“一轴一带一片”式产业布局,为未来辽阳地区新能源发展提供一定的借鉴意义。
(5)对辽阳地区新能源建设项目进行规划,未来5年内,将新建大中型养殖场沼气工程80处；农村户用沼气工程50000处；秸秆集中供气工程20处,固化成型加工厂10座；并根据项目的数量、工艺设备、重要程度等进行投资,其中农村户用沼气工程投资额最多,占全部投资的35.29%,其次为大中型养殖场沼气工程,占24.31%；根据项目公益性的不同,提出中央支持、地方财政支持、农民自筹或社会融资三方面相结合的筹资方式对所有项目进行建设。
(6)保障辽阳地区能源可持续发展,加快农村能源建设步伐,应制定地方法令以推动农村能源发展；确定以新能源为主、常规能源为辅,以秸秆固化成型燃料、沼气等工程为重点的发展方向,统筹城乡能源发展；拓宽融资渠道,探索多元投资,建立能源公共基金,通过贷款贴息、资金补贴和税收优惠等政策,吸引更多社会资本；完善农村能源技术支撑与服务体系,确保持续平稳运行；逐步完善农村能源产品市场,形成农村能源产业链,增强产业竞争力。
Energy is very important material assurance of human existence, economic prosperity and social progress, and with the economic growth at full speed, people's energy consumptions are generally improved, and the energy crisis, even the environment deterioration and the others are occurred, which making the development of new energy in rural areas are increasingly paid more attention. The new energy developing and utilizing in Liaoyang rural areas has experienced more than30years, which has got the industrial base and development advantages, but lots of problems, such as unsound laws, limited investment and financing channels, incomplete technical system for support and service, ineffective rural energy market and half-baked industrial chain. If we could develop a comprehensive and rational energy development plan to take full advantage of rural biomass energy, industrialization of new energy will be realized in rural areas, the expanding energy gap will be largely solved, the local environment will be protected and at last energy sustainable development will be achieved.
On the basis of econometrics, energy economics, gray theory, analytic hierarchy process and other theories and methods, the structure of energy supply and demand and the energy gap in the next ten years has been forecast in Liaoyang city by the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative forecast. At the same time, new energy available sources, especially biomass available sources have been forecast in rural areas, and then energy gap is filled by new energy in Liaoyang rural areas through making a appropriate energy development plan. Finally, reasonable suggests can be put forward from the economy, technology and law, which has important practical significance on the social sustainable development in Liaoyang city.
Through in-depth research, the main study contents are as follows:
(1) The influencing factor of energy consumption in Liaoyang has been carried out by co-integration test and error correction model, the results show that long-run equilibrium relationship exist between energy consumption and regional GDP, energy consumption structure, energy consumption density, industrial structure, population and urbanization rate. In addition to urbanization rate, other influencing factor of energy consumption showed a positive correlation, in which the severest disturbancing factors is regional GDP, followed by industrial structure and total population. And the energy short-term consumption has been reflected by error correction model, the results show that the fitting effect is good, when the fluctuations of energy consumption appear in the short-term deviate from the long-run equilibrium, making non-equilibrium state by the adjustment factor-1.131979to equilibrium state.
(2) The weight combination model is established by GM (1,1) model and cubic exponential smoothing model, and the amount of energy supply and demand are respectively predicted in the coming ten years in Liaoyang, the results show that the weight combination model has a more accuracy and more reliability. To2022, energy consumption, energy production and energy gap in Liaoyang will respectively reach22.1305,16.4600and5.6705million tce, and the energy consumption will increase greater than the energy production, the energy gap will be on the expansion and energy self-sufficiency rate will reduce year by year.
(3) The mainly biomass production and the livestock and poultry amount are respectively predicted by weight combination model, and the potential of various biomass resources are predicted by the rate of grass valley, rate of wood production, excretion coefficient, biomass availability and converted into standard energy coefficient. The result shows that all kinds of biomass resource can be converted to1.995million tee, energy gap can be filled by biomass in35.18%, in which agricultural resource, forestry resource, livestock and poultry manure can be respectively converted to0.3184,0.2724and1.4038million tce in2022. And the rural biomass resources will increase year by year, energy gap can be filled by biomass in35%-60%, which can effectively alleviate the energy crisis.
(4) According to the survey of the utilization, development advantages and disadvantages of new energy in Liaoyang rural areas, a strategic development decision on new energy is made in rural areas by AHP. The result shows that rural households biogas construction and large and medium-sized farms biogas projects are the most focused on, followed by solar water heaters and solar houses, biomass briquetting, and then gas supply project centralized by straw is developed selectively,"an axis, a region and a area" type of industry layout is planned out, which has an important reference for the development of new energy in the future in Liaoyang rural areas.
(5) A plan of new energy construction program in Liaoyang rural areas will be made in the next5years,80large and medium-sized farms biogas project,50000rural household biogas project,20gas supply projects centralized by straw and10biomass briquetting factory will be built. According to the number, the technology and equipment, the significance of program, rural household biogas project will provide the most investment in35.29%, followed by large and medium-sized farm biogas project in24.31%. According to the difference of public welfare on the program. financing modes combining central government subsidies, local financial support, farmers self-financing and social financing of all the program will be put forward.
(6) To protect the energy sustainable development and accelerate the pace of rural new energy construction in Liaoyang, the suggestion and the countermeasures for develop are pointed out. Local law on new energy should be made to promote the development of new energy in rural areas. Plan a development direction on "mainly new energy, secondly conventional energy sources, main project such as straw briquette projects and biogas projects" to co-ordinate development of urban and rural energy. Broaden the financing channels, explore the diverse investment, set up a public fund for the energy, attract more social capital by loans discount, financial subsidies, tax incentives and other policies. Improve the rural energy technology system of support and service to ensure sustained and stable operation. Gradually establish products market on rural energy to form industry chain of rural new energy and enhance industrial competitiveness.
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