摘要
可持续发展的概念自诞生之日起就引发了学术界众多的质疑、争论,目前唯一能够达成共识的观点是：为了全人类共同的利益,必须力求实现可持续发展。为了达到这一目标,首要的工作就是对可持续发展现状进行全面、科学和客观的测度。目前各国的研究者从理论或现实的不同角度,提出了许多可持续发展测度方法,比较著名的就有绿色GDP、生态足迹方法等。世界银行开发的真实储蓄方法将国民财富与可持续发展联系到一起,认为财富、福利与可持续发展是紧密联系的,提醒民众和决策者意识到资源、环境等自然福利因素和教育的重要性。经作者对这一方法的系统研究发现：真实储蓄测度方法的理论基础以及测度技术虽然在目前存在各种缺陷,但这并不妨碍它作为一种合理的可持续发展测度方法为公众提供相应的信息。而且在对其进行批评研究的过程中,对可持续发展与可持续发展测度的探寻又加深了一步。因此作者更愿意把本文看作是一个楔子,一个起点,虽然研究主题是真实储蓄的测度理论与方法,但是真正的研究对象是对可持续发展路径和可持续发展测度的核心问题,这对当前的中国可持续发展研究更有参考价值。
本文是对真实储蓄测度理论与方法进行系统性研究,全文共分为七章。
第一章为序言,主要介绍文章的研究背景、意义及国内外研究现状。
第二章与第三章是真实储蓄理论导论。这两部分是理解与研究真实储蓄的必要前提与基础。
第二章是对可持续发展基本概念与理论的阐释。本章主要介绍的是可持续发展的基本概念,阐明经济学家是如何思考可持续性问题的,特别是经济学家如何通过建立模型来探索可持续性的条件、评价经济活动的方式是否满足可持续性目标以及为之提出政策建议,同时还将讨论生态学家对可持续性的思考。
在第三章中作者将对国民财富核算的理论、方法以及最新的研究成果进行介绍与分析。当代的经济学家认为财富、福利与可持续发展是紧密联系的。当前的国民财富存量被认为是未来消费的现值,也是未来社会福利实现的基础。由此,可持续发展就是创造、保持和管理财富的过程。国民财富核算与真实储蓄测度,是分别针对财富存量与流量的评估,进而对一国可持续发展能力进行判断。
第四章到第六章是本文的核心部分,将按照“理论研究——方法研究——实证研究”的路径,对真实储蓄进行深入系统研究。
第四章为真实储蓄的理论思辨。真实储蓄可以被视为是新古典经济学的一个具体应用,是新古典经济学家在对市场、资源、社会福利综合考虑,探求可持续发展路径的成果。新古典经济学的三个经济法则——霍特林法则、Solow-Hartwick模型和弱可持续发展范式,如同三个支柱支撑着真实储蓄理论。但是任何一个有经济学常识的人都应该明确的知道,每一种经济模型都建立严格的经验假设的基础之上的,是对复杂现实的简化。本章将对真实储蓄理论的三个经济模型进行理论思辨,其中的分析将会更全面客观的认识真实储蓄测度提供依据,并指出由某些“假设”带来的先天性缺陷。
第五章是真实储蓄的方法研究。测度方法很重要,它关系到从财富来测度可持续发展的尝试能否最终实现。真实储蓄测度方法从本质上来说还是一种绿色GDP的变形,它最重要的工作是在现有GDP的基础上对资源损耗与环境污染损失进行货币化评估。这也是真实储蓄测度最大的难点。因此,在对最后结果的经济解释和政策指导必须注意到评估工作的现实难度和真实储蓄测度理论本身的缺陷。本章将以中国的“真实储蓄”数据为例,对这一问题进行说明。
第六章中运用前文中的研究成果,利用真实储蓄方法对2000-2009年间辽宁省可持续发展能力进行评价。在对最终结果的分析时,作者更重视与现实情况的结合以及在计算过程中呈现的经济与资源环境之间联系的特点。进一步的,对真实储蓄各个组成部分进行分析,寻找到财富增长的具体原因,更重要的是财富的增长带来了什么,是更多的社会福利还是更多的环境污染。最后结合研究结论,提出相应的政策建议。
第七章是对全文研究进行总结,并对未来研究提出展望。
Since its birth, the concept of sustainable development has lead to many questions, debates and constant corrections. At present, the only consensus view is that:for the common interests of all mankind, we must strive to achieve sustainable development. To achieve this goal, the first and foremost job is to measure the Sustainable Development scientifically, comprehensively and objectively. Many researchers of different countries propose some measurement methods from angles of theory or practice, such as green GDP and the ecological footprint. The method of genuine saving developed by the World Bank connect the nation wealth and sustainable development, and believes that Wealth, welfare and sustainable development are closely linked, reminding the public and policy makers aware of the importance of resources, environment and other natural welfare factors and the education. After systematic research about this method, the author find that although the theoretical bases as well as measurement techniques of the real savings measure have a variety of defects, but that does not hinder sustainable development provides us with the appropriate information as a reasonable measure method. In the process of criticism and research about genuine saving, we have much deeper understanding about sustainable development and sustainable development measure. Therefore, we prefer this dissertation as a wedge and a starting point, although this dissertation's research topics are the measure theory and methods of genuine saving, the real object of this dissertation is the core issue of the path of sustainable development and sustainable development measure, which have much more reference value about the research of China's sustainable development.
The dissertation makes a systematic study of the theory and methods of genuine saving measure, which can be divided into seven chapters as follows:
Chapter1mainly introduces the background, importance and the review of home and abroad about this dissertation.
Chapters2and3can be regarded as the introduction of the theory of genuine saving. These two parts are the precondition and foundation of genuine savings.
The chapter2is the interpretation of the basic concepts and theories of sustainable development. This chapter mainly introduces the basic concepts of sustainable development, and clarify how economists think about sustainability issues, especially how economists build models to explore the conditions of sustainability, whether the evaluation of economic activities meet persistent goal, and put forward policy recommendations for sustainable development, and will also discuss the thinking of ecologists on sustainability.
Chapter3will introduce and analysis the theories, methods, and the latest research of nationwealth accounting. Contemporary economists believe that the wealth, welfare and sustainable development are closely linked. The current stock of nationwealth is considered to be the present value of future consumption, and also the basis for achieving social welfare. As a result, sustainable development is a process to create, maintain, and manage wealth. Nationwealth accounting and genuine saving measure can assess the wealth of stock and flow, respectively, and judge the ability of a country's sustainable development.
Chapter4to Chapter6are the core parts of this dissertation, we will research the genuine saving indicators systematically following the path of the "theory research-methods research-Empirical research".
Chapter4is a speculative theory of genuine saving. The genuine saving can be regarded as a specific application of neo-classical economics, is a result of exploring the sustainable development path after comprehensive thinking about the markets, resources, social welfare of neo-classical economists. The three laws of economics of neo-classical economics-the Hotelling rule, the Solow-Hartwick model and weak sustainable development paradigm, support the genuine saving theory as the three pillars. But one who has a common sense of economics should be clear that every kind of economic model built on the basis of rigorous empirical assumptions, and all the economic model are the simplification of complex reality. In this chapter, we will have theoretical speculation of the three economic models of genuine saving theory, the analysis through which will allow us have a more comprehensive and objective understanding of the basis of genuine saving measure and some congenital defects brought about by some "hypothesis"
The chapter5is the research of the methods of genuine saving. The measure is very important, it relates whether we can measure sustainable development from wealth. In instinct, the genuine saving method is a deformation of green GDP, the most important work is the monetary assessment of the loss of resource depletion and environmental pollution on the basis of the existing GDP, which is also the biggest difficulty about the genuine saving. Therefore, when we give economic interpretation and policy guidance on the final outcome, we must be noted the reality difficulty of that these two aspects'assessment and inherent defects of the genuine saving measure theory. The above issue will be described using China's "genuine saving" in this chapter.
The chapter6uses the research results in the previously, evaluate the capacity for sustainable development in Liaoning Province2000-2009by the genuine saving method. In the analysis of final result, much more attention has been paid to the he combination of the reality and characteristics of the link between economic and resource environment presented in the calculation process. We will make further analysis of the various components of the genuine saving, to find the specific reasons for the growth of wealth. The more important is what the growth of wealth has brought us, more social welfare or environmental pollution.
Chapter7briefly summarizes the whole dissertation and puts forward the prospects for the future research.
引文
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